Newspoll has been sprung on us a day early, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor’s primary vote is up from 47 per cent to 48 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down from 41 per cent to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd has taken a slight hit on his satisfaction rating, down from 65 per cent to 62 per cent.
I’ve gone back over the last 6 months of Newspolls as found that “undecided’ has been pretty stable at 4-5% but today it jumps to 7%. Is this just statisical noise or is someones vote softening? I was talking to a lifelong Liberal voter over the weekend and he was very conflicted about voting for Howard again. If anyones got some views on this I’d love to hear them.
Another great result…& now for something different…Nicholson’s animation @ the Oz. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/0,25199,36,00.html
Unless of course Labor win the election 59/41
Phillip Coorey’s article also contains the furphy that because the Coalition is 10% behind in the polls they only need 5% or 1 in 20 of voters who say they are to vote Labor to switch.
In reality, the 5% they need must come from Labor’s figure of 55% as the other 45% are already voting Coalition. In other words they need 1 in 11 to change or 9% to change from Labor to Coalition.
With the polls now showing 56-44 they now need about 1 in 9 to change their vote.
All this is of course assuming their is no movement in the other direction.
It’s reported, today’s Newspoll will ensure the election will be called for late November or early December. What they are really saying is “just one more round, Angie, just one more round…..”
A pugilistic analogy explains it here:
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=749
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Scotty Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 7:22 am
Kit (20) – I totally agree. It’s the reason I took their website out of my Bookmarks, so I’m not tempted to go there, unless it’s to read the Newspoll numbers.
I used to read it to gauge the thoughts of the conservatives on the current state of affiars, but I don’t even do that any more. I wish there was something more that could be done, other than writing nastigrams to the editor.”
Yes there is something you can do. Why buy any News Ltd papers if they are going to make themselves the enemy of Labor and campaign against them during the election? Labor supporters ought to be uspset with unbalanced publishing/reporting designed to support Howard. How many Labor supporters currently buy News Ltd papers?
Re Rudd losing his “sheen” – I think it’s pretty arguable (including the mass booing delivered to Howard by the crowd at the NRL grandfinal last night) that the longer Howard holds off calling the election the more “sheen” HE is losing.
Hard to give “internal” party polling much credence when it goes against almost every finding of all the major professional pollsters over a period of many months. What do internal party pollsters know that the professional guys do not?
The stuff leaked from the Liberal camp “showing” that things are not as bad as commonly believed, is, I believe, intended to bolster the confidence of the party faithful, to forestall a revolt on the Rodent’s leadership.
Anyone seen any movement by local Lib MPs that the election might be called today? All quiet here ATM. Richardsons office is dead but he did have a BBQ for his staff last Sunday.
Will Says: “Coonan is saying voters should think long and hard about voting for Labor.”
Coonan is also doing her block (The Daily Telegraph) about Telstra “wasting money” urging its 1.6 million shareholders to confront Howard’s Mob on its Broadband policy … (NB Ms C, protecting shareholder interests is its CEO’s and Board’s responsibility – your Mob privatised it; your mob favours a foreign telco; you get to wear Aussie shareholers’ ire!!)
Add Broadband policy to Iraq, “non-core promises”, work choices, climate change, Quarantine debacles like Fire Ants Citrus canker & Equine Flu, Gov “advertorials” and recycled road “funding” (5 times for Toowoomba’s Range Road; 2 for the Warrego Highway’s Ipswich Road section), and one begins to wonder about the political IQ level of Howard’s cabinet …
But not about why Howard was booed (most recently) at the RL final’ or why the polls are not narrowing!
I like the Australian for its more political stories,comments etc. Would be good if it was unbiased and gave parties like the Greens more publicity but the Advertiser here is useless and wishy washy. I thought political junkies would like reading anything political be it Right, Left or in between
I find the MSM bias against Labor infuriating too but it could very well help Labor. If everyone starts writing off the government we may find many swinging voters deciding vote coalition to maintain a balance, thinking that Labor will get in easily. I really don’t think Labor will be unhappy with this interpretation of the present polls by the GG and others.
Mumble is reporting that “Out a day early. Rumour has it they threw in some extra questions which we’ll read about tomorrow.”
Hmmmm – wonder what?!?! More leadership speculation?!
Rx @ 53:
Maybe there is some truth in what they say. Possum’s analysis of Newspoll reveals that, with the exception of Victoria, polling in marginal seats is doing (slightly) better than the headline Newspoll figure for the Government. This is maybe what is reflected in the ‘leaked’ polling.
Of course, they are also doing significantly worse in safe Government seats, to an extent that they have had to widen the number of seats which they are seeking to defend. This is Possum’s thesis: that if they are doing better in the marginals than the headline figure suggests, then the swing has to be coming from *somewhere*. In this case, “safe” Government seats. They choose not to leak this 🙂
Of course, with a 10-12% TPP shortfall, even if you are doing ‘slightly better’ in the marginals, you’re still going to lose an awful lot of these, let alone some seats you thought you wouldn’t see change hands.
There’s no point whatsoever in boycotting The Australian out of principle. Murdoch has never cared about circulation – he cares about having the national paper of record and the paper that political insiders read.
Between Sky News and The Australian, he dominates the media in Parliament House even more than he does in the rest of the country. Frankly, the only circulation numbers he’s interested in are those in a few postcodes in the ACT.
This morning Centrebet back out to $3.15 for Coalition, $1.37 for Labor.
The Politics of Affluenza by Clive Hamilton at page 139 (published 2005)
“As long as we remain preoccupied with house prices, credit card debts, interest rates, tax cuts and getting ahead financially – in other words as long as define our success in life through money – Labor can expect to win an election only by mimicking the Liberal Party”
So how exactly would a Labor government be different?
Another nail in the Howard Govt’s coffin!!!!
Excellent!!!
Fingers crossed the same scenario as played out in Ireland plays out here in Australia and Howard is returned.
With respect to Helen Coonan telling us to think carefully about our vote she should tend to her portfolio a little closer & deal with Telstra kicking her & the government in the shins. Looks like Telstra has thought about it too!
Its a sad state when in the public debate of current politics that all you hear from the government side is that the opposition has a ‘lack of experience’ to do the job. Is this a short cut to thinking?
If this argument was to be the yardstick by how politics where run in Australia then their will never be a change of government on any level.
Also lets remember that they cry aloud at how many unionist are candidates for Labor. Please lets stop this ideology bashing & scare mongering that paints a unionist candidate as some sort of green eye monster that would wreck the nation. Lets remember that unions have helped a lot to get us our high standard of living that we enjoy today & the work entitlements that we enjoy. How can any rational political party demonise them for that.
Australian don’t like this American style IR system & the polls reflect that so if it’s a ‘Workchoice’ between Howard & Rudd then Labor will win & win well.
Thanks for the North Korean news agency slant on politics AussieGuru01.
Given its the only national newspaper insiders in the national capital dont have much choice do they? The OZ is atrocious and to state the obvious stridently anti-union and anti-labor so muc so its almost a badge of honour. When was the last time it turned its blow torch on the employer organisations in the same way it does to trade unions?
Actually Charlie 59 there is a point about considering a boycott. The SUN newspaper in England has been boycotted on Merseyside after its disgusting reporting after the 1989 Hillsborough statdium tragedy involving the deaths of many Liverpool fans. Its been suggested this boycott has cost Murdoch 55 million pounds ($130 million)australian and counting since then.
Analysing the polls. An interesting article on the ABC site.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/01/2047469.htm
I can see the Liberal apologists already saying, “The ABC is biased”.
What they really mean is the ABC doesn’t promote Liberal propaganda”.
Hmm 66 – unlike the Liberals the Labor front bench is overwhelmingly made up of people from unions which represent 15% of the private sector workforce. There’s a fair point that they are wildly unrepresentative of anyone but themselves.
No problems Eddy. a reality pill is good for ya!!
Some one has to tell John of Melbourne he’s dreaming.
While on the topic of the biased Murdoch stable, any speculation on what open Liberal loyalists like Akerman will do if Labor wins?
68, Its a Labor party, a Labor party. You’d expect its members to come from the trade union movement wouldn’t you? Maybe you wouldnt.
Anyway whats that got to do with the lack of accoutability of employer organisations? Many members are not happy that their fees have been spent on these ads supporting workplace ‘reform’.
Unions are accountable to their members not the leader writers of the OZ.
The implied 2PP swing is about 8.5% away from the coalition – or greater than any swing recorded since 1966. It is probably not going to get much better for Labor than this and therefore Howard will be encouraged to wait even longer before calling the election. He clearly wants time to maul Rudd, hoping to dragg down Rudd’s approval advantage. On the other hand, every day that passes is another opportunity for Rudd to campaign and another day of frustration for the electorate.
This means Howard has been reduced to using a strategy of the last resort: deny the accuracy of the polls, attack Rudd, try bribing the marginals and hope for something to turn up.
It also means that Howard will be seen to be manipulating the electoral process. This is not going to sit well with voters who are already fed up with him and who have long since learned to mistrust the Government.
If he had a single shred of decency in him, Howard would call the election now. That he won’t do so just confirms what everyone knows: Howard is a most self-serving politician!
Lol, thanks Chris B but I do hope it happens.
Blindoptimist Howard should and will go when he thinks he can win. Besides us political tragics are the only ones who give a rats when he calls the election most punters don’t even care.
Jon @58, I thought I read that the swing to Labor is higher in the marginals than in the non-marginals. Regardless, the hope is that the swing is enough in both to give an emphatic defeat to the government.
72 – Yes its a Labor Party – an unrepresentative Labor Party.
Tell me TC – when did Greg Combet or Bill Shorten ever get there hands dirty working in their respective industries? Hmmm?
73 – Spot on with the analysis – Howard needs a shift of 3-4% in the primary to be competitive. Of course he is going to fight to the death, did anyone really expect him to meekly surrender?
Eric Willis – now there’s a name to conjure with. He was of course Howard’s third most fave politician and along with the vile Carrick his mentor and sponsor in the early days. of sein Kampf
Far be it from me to defend the dreaded MSM but there is an imperative to try to get some interest out of the polls. Like the 4th quarter of the grand final something of interest has to be found. Speculating about possibility of closer contest at least adds some interest.
Well it says here on a list leaked to me by someone that he is to be taken to a camp in Brewarina for errr… re-education and training.
You’re not going to tell us that the Coalition frontbench is a representative cross-section of the workforce, are you? What proportion of the workforce is made up of lawyers, do you think? Less than the proportion on the Coalition frontbench, that’s for sure, and less than 15% by a long way.
Edward St John is the nominated right wing ‘stirer of the day’ Edward you are welcome to dish out your opinions as you please …just raise the bar a little so we can appreciate you ‘rational’ rather than ‘hard-core dribble’ Thanks.
Edward, you promised us you were leaving for good. I’m very disappointed you have broken your word. Obviously this was a non-core promise. I see you are now resorting to the last resort of defeated conservatives, the old “it doesn’t matter who wins really, because nothing can ever change, the people are stupid and greedy, all politicians are crooks, and we’ll soon be back.” I know conservatism is a creed of applied cynicism, but such tired rubbish sounds bad even from you. On the other hand your defeatism is pleasing to see.
76 – When you have rich businessman & lawyers running the Government & telling the majority whats good from them ala workchoices then you will understand the importance of unions. Regards Bill Shorten getting his hands dirty I didn’t see much coming from management during the Beaconsfield mining disaster a year ago. Management did the normal & ran while Shorten fronted the media every day.
I wish the papers would point out that the movement in the polls is within the margin of error and that the trend is 55 – 45 TPP in Labors favour. I like my politics but I’m sick of polls.
Tell us again Edward why you think union members are so bad.
re Coonan, what makes her think “careful thought†will aid her side?
I have thought widespread distraction, or a sudden outburst of pure idiocy and ignorance would be their best punt.
There wont be a significant shift over the campaign either, Dennis. Surely that much is clear even to the most moon-baying, bunion-scratching, entrail-reading, evidence-averse, pre-enlightenment GG columnist.
J-D 80 I am going to tell you:
1. There is very little policy difference between Labor and Liberal ( WorkChoices and WorkChoicesLite basically)
2. Politics is an elite activity in this country – basically about 2000-3000 people count in each party as people who have a direct financial oer personal interest in an outcome – ie MP’, staffers, unions, etc, the difference for everybody else is marginal
3. The Labor party is significantly but not substantially more unrepresentative. Large numbers of people who have never done anything but work for an MP or union, dont have kids, run a small business etc. This Pakistan style clan politics is extremely unhealthy.
Oh Adam, I promised to return in November, I’m just a month early. Besides now that you have been exposed as a Liberal stooge by Sanjay arent we batting for the same side?
All you people complaining about the bias of the GG should calm down. Have a look at the circulation figures. It has a diminishing readership base and most of those who still buy it are people like us who laugh at its pretensions and its silly bias. The editorial last week about bloggers and polling was an example of its frustration at losing its gate keeper role. Suddenly out there are all the real poll readers who analyze the figures as they are, not as Shanahan does who ignores them and writes a fantasy commentary to fit in with what he thinks they should be.
I am sure people look at the GG on Newspoll days have a giggle at Shanahan and the rest of the GG gibberers and then get on to the bogs, Poll Bludger Mumble Possum etc.
That’s what the GG hates so much the kings new clothes syndrome. We can see they are naked. The other point is the puzzlement of all the Canberra Bureau, Coorey in the SMH Grattan in The Age and all at the GG.
They proclaimed that Rudd took a severe beating at hands of Costello in Parliament and then made a series of gaffes that would see his ratings slump. Well they didn’t. It shows how out of touch they are. Most non bureau people I speak to were horrified by Costello; red faced bullying bellowing. People hate it especially women. Also the Canberra Bureau mob keep saying Gillard is a negative in the electorate. I don’t think she is. Indeed it seems women love her (they haven’t forgiven the Libs for Heffernan’s barren remark) and she is in big demand around the place.
Hard to see the Libs coming back especially when you read the commentary of the bloggers on Howard’s lack of sparkle in election campaigns. How long can Howard wait?
85 GB – I dont think union members per se are any better or worse than non-union members. Its the structures that are corrupt.
#82 Adam: don’t forget to add to the conservative mix a good dose of union-bashing.
Hey Adam I figured who Edward St John really is… think about it… its John Howard!…LOL
@ 88 Edward StJohn Says:
Not so good at the reading and comprehension Eddie? Never mind, keep trying, you’ll get there in time.
81 dont encourge edward. its patently obvious we arent going to get anything that slightly resembles informed and mature opinion.