• Glenn Milne identifies three election date options for the Prime Minister: “go to Yarralumla next weekend for a six-week campaign and a November 17 poll”, “wait another week after that and run to November 24”, or “let Parliament resume its scheduled sittings from October 15 to 25 then go to a December 1 poll”.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian summarises recent reports of internal party polling thus:
There have been reports ALP polling shows Labor can win 10 seats in NSW, including the seat of Eden-Monaro, which has changed hands with government since 1972. Equally ostensibly secret polling names unlikely seats in Melbourne, such as Goldstein, falling to Labor and seats in Adelaide such as Boothby and Sturt being added to the three more marginal seats of Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, in South Australia. In the Northern Territory Solomon is assumed to be gone, as are Bass and Braddon in Tasmania … Recently the Sydney Daily Telegraph reported on its front page: “Labor is set to secure such a massive swing in NSW that the Liberals have formally surrendered all hope of winning a single new seat anywhere in this state at the federal election. As Kevin Rudd arrived in Sydney last night to base himself locally for the next three days, Labor polling shows 10 NSW seats could fall its way.” The Australian reported on its front page: “Labor is headed for a landslide victory in the crucial federal bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, according to leaked ALP research. The polling, obtained by The Australian, found the count would not even go to preferences, with Labor candidate Mike Kelly attracting 51 per cent of the primary vote over Special Minister of State Gary Nairn on 39 per cent”. The Melbourne Herald-Sun reported ALP polling showing that Labor “has dramatically expanded the number of target seats it hopes to win, with ALP elders declaring even previously rock-solid Coalition fortresses now in play”, including Goldstein, which is held by more than 10per cent.
• Friday’s West Australian (no link available) reports “growing concern within the Liberal Party that it may lose the blue-ribbon WA seat of Forrest at the coming election – not to Labor but to an Independent with a high profile”:
Noel Brunning, a former newsreader with Prime TVs Golden West News, is believed to be picking up strong interest among the voters despite his stop-start campaign. Internal Liberal Party polling is believed to have shown that Mr Brunning, 40, has a higher recognition in southern WA than either the Liberal candidate Nola Marino or Labor’s Peter MacFarlane. Forrest is being vacated by former minister Geoff Prosser at the next election and although the margin is a comfortable 10.5 per cent, the retirement of Mr Prosser after 20 years means the contest will be much closer. Not helping the Liberals campaign is the fact that the preselectors preferred candidate, Busselton Shire councillor Philippa Reid, withdrew from the contest late last year citing concern her involvement in Corruption and Crime Commission hearings into the $330 million Canal Rocks development would damage the party. Cr Reid’s relationship with divisive former Liberal powerbroker Noel Crichton-Browne was also causing concern within the party.
• After last week’s bad Boothby opinion poll and excruciating radio interview, John Wiseman of The Australian reports that Labor “closed ranks behind its South Australian glamour candidate Nicole Cornes yesterday, scotching suggestions that she might have booted an own goal with her latest media gaffe”. It now seems I might have been too quick to dismiss the poll’s finding that Cornes was doing particularly badly among women voters. While I don’t imagine he has too many fans among this site’s readership, Andrew Bolt of the Herald Sun might have been on to something here:
I suspect it’s because they’ve never liked women who just get by on looks. It seems an insult to clever women and a threat not just to the plain. Cornes’ status as a second wife only speaks to that distrust and contempt.
• A $5 billion federal government roads package to be unveiled this week will reportedly include plans for a $2 billion upgrade of the Bruce Highway from Brisbane to Cairns, and a $1 billion upgrade of the Pacific Highway from Sydney to Brisbane. The latter is of significance to the sensitive north coast seats of Page, Cowper and Paterson, while the Bruce Highway funding targets Hinkler, Flynn, Herbert and Leichhardt. As noted this morning by Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, this has prompted newspapers in Melbourne and Adelaide to complain the southern states have been “snubbed”.
• The Griffith University’s regular VAMPIRE (“vulnerability assessment for mortgage, petrol and inflation risks and expenditure”) study has identified what the Financial Review describes as “11 marginal and fairly safe Liberal seats in which more than half of all households are facing petrol and mortgage stress”: Moreton, Bonner, Lindsay, Macquarie, Deakin, La Trobe, Wakefield, Makin, Kingston, Hasluck and Stirling.
• The last Brisbane Liberal remaining under the cloud of the “printgate” affair, Bowman MP Andrew Laming, has been cleared by the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.
• The High Court has published the ruling that struck down legislation removing the right to vote from all prisoners in full-time custody.
• Having noted similar long-term trends, I thought it might be interesting to compare aggregated polling figures from Australia and New Zealand since the end of last year. New Zealand figures are a rough average of Roy Morgan and DigiPoll, Australia’s are from Reuters Poll Trend plus a September figure from Bryan Palmer.
Funny how the Laborites said Tony Abbott was trying to make political capital out of peoples suffering yet today here we have Bill Shorten who paraded about with the surviving Beaconsfield miners at his campaign launch…ever stop to think about the Family of Larry Knight…i didnt think so…once again more hypocrisy from the left but hey what do you expect i from a union scumbag.
Adam, if your still around, in response to your doubt about Labor picking up Dawson, I wish you would consider this!
Dawson was previously a Labor seat under Dr Rex Patterson for about 20 years.
Mackay has now a sizable population of fly in/fly out coal miners. In the Electorate there are also a large number of Sugar Industry workers and as well there is also a large Tourist Industry with a large number of workers on AWA’s.
Workchoices is a big issue in this electorate and I believe that the National Party will be lucky indeed to hold on to it. BTW, I lived in the Electorate for 28 years and know it well.
I really have to start proof reading posts!
Scorpio,
I usually do my posts in Word and then copy them to the comments box. That way, they never disappear – except that last week I accidentally deleted everything I have done on my computer this year and I still don’t know how. Luckily I had backed it up on to a CD…in June.
Kev, Mia is indeed an 18 carat candidate, very impressive, i think she’ll walk it in, as for Nicole, i honestly believe that when the choice is her or Howards excesses they’ll take her, worst choices and interest rates are biting deeply in parts of that seat.
Re 41,
Judy, I would dearly love to see Downer go. Frankly, after Howard, Downer is probably the worst one of the lot. However, with Downers margin, I have all but given up hope personally. I am just looking at the margins and working on up the list making the logical assumption that seats will fall in order of margins (which I know isn’t quite true). If I had to rank them in order of how I would LIKE to see them go; it would probably look something like this – 1) Howard 2) Downer 3) Abbot 4) Costello 5) Andrews 6) Hockey. I don’t have any major issues with other folks on the front bench but if all of my hit list could be booted out, it would be like all of my Christmases coming at once :):):):):)
BIG difference – Shorten would NOT have done that one day after Larry Knight died. Abbot DID do it one day after the baby died.
There has been well and truely enough time passed for the Beaconsfield miners to properly grieve the departed and move on.
No, no. We don’t want to lose Downer. Apart from the fact that he has been the most entertaining Foreign Minister we’ve ever had, if he hangs around after the election he is likely to become the Shadow Treasurer and that will be just too funny for words.
Charles sez:
Are your serious? You don’t seem to have a clue – or even know something as simple as the name of the dam project. The Three Gorges Dam is already far from being “interesting” – the chief engineer has been recently quoted on the BBC as having admitted that the dam is an environmental disaster. see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_gorges_dam#Criticism for starters
There is also a burgeoning movement to remove dams from certain rivers in North America
As a New Zealander, I note that the political (a)symmetries between my country and Australia are eerie. Since November 1990 (with the exception of the March 1996 – December 1999) whenever Labour has been in power in New Zealand the Coalition has been in power in Australia.
Currently both the Howard Coalition government in Australia and the Clark Labour government in New Zealand are trailing the main opposition party by double digits.
Both the Opposition Leaders (Rudd in Australia and Key in NZ) are making themselves and their parties as small a target as possible in time for the next election. In Key’s case this has meant doing frantically flip-flopping on a wide-range of issues (such as climate change, race relations, the KiwiSaver superannuation scheme) to match Labour. The major difference between the parties appears to be that National is willing to offer across-the -board tax cuts while Labour prefers the targeted “Working for Families” scheme for lower to middle income families with dependent children.
Like Rudd, Key is also reaping the rewards not just with the opposition leading the government in polls but was also for a time ahead of Clark in at least half the Preferred Prime Minister polls.
Like the Coalition in Australia, Labour in NZ has also been in the dog-box in the opinion polls. However Labour in New Zealand still has a year to go until the next election while the Coalition has only a couple of months. Also Clark is now again ahead as Preferred Prime Minister in all the opinion polls.
In addition unlike Australia New Zealand’s lower House is elected under a truly proportional system – Mixed Member Proportional. In theory under such a system, Labour’s vote can be as much as 5% behind National, but it can still form a coalition government with the help of the Greens – who are the only minor party in the last 2 years who have consistently polled above 5% in the polls. Since 2005 Labour (and one Progressive MP) have been in a quasi-coalition with two centrist parties (NZ First and United) but these parties have plummeted in support to well below 5%.
Even if Labour and the Greens do not quite get a majority in 2008, they may be helped by the Maori party (which currently have 4 seats and may win up to 7 seats in 2008) who can abstain on votes of confidence thereby giving Labour and the Greens the edge in the House.
However I think the more likely outcome for the 2008 election is that National will gain slightly more votes (and thus seats) than Labour (including the Progressive MP) and the Greens combined. National will go into coalition with the right-wing ACT party and the centrist United party (both of which will be reduced to 1 MP each – their leaders). NZ First will be wiped out. The only other party left would be the Maori party – which will hold the balance of power. The Maori party will probably continue to abstain on votes of confidence thereby guaranteeing a minority National-ACT-United coalition government.
So by this time next year there may well be a majority federal Labor government led by Kevin Rudd in Australia, and a minority National-ACT-United Future government led by John Key in New Zealand.
The Worst of Perth
Traitor! That’s right, shoot through.
You are right, though. We have been plagued for the past 11 years or so with Howard’s whine. He comments on everything, even when it’s none of his business. He’s everywhere.
But Julie i remember Shorten making himself so so so available for the media down at Beaconsfiled to boost his profile after just being announced as the Candidate he has exploited that tragedy either way…you cant help but feel cynical when just after being preselected up pops Shorten at a mining disaster…
Kiwi while the New Zealand election isnt for some time yet…if the polls are anything to go by Key will have a larger majority than Rudd if he wins by a landslide…
[ if the polls are anything to go by ]
I don’t believe it. Glen saying that polls might be worth noticing!
Julie we can only pray, i met the ahem gentleman a couple of times, i was waiting for him to shoo me away lol– but i beat him to it, i did get a limp wristed wave as i edged away last time, it was at the opening of a lawyer pal’s new chambers and if Downer noticed me at all he was probably wondering what a decidedly overweight old dear was doing there, over the years ive actually had some close ties with labor state pollies– i respect them much more but then i’m biased.
Molotov if your in Downers seat you have my deepest sympathy.
this link about Howard has some ipsos poll numbers in it.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/pm-avoids-election-talk/2007/09/30/1191090938279.html
Judy,
I live in NSW. I am in Werriwa, seat made famous by Whitlam and more recently, infamous by Latham. Very safe Labor here :).
Thanks Judy, there are many decent people here too though. Anyway KIWI whats the Maori Party like?
Julie what was the by-election like quickly?
Looks good for Melbourne in the GF.
Looking forward to seeing Howard introduced on the podium.
Hope the crowd give it to him good and proper.
Unless he chickens out.
Is Rudd’s call to have ministers apointed by him rather than by caucus a way of undermining the left faction so that instead of ‘left’ having very little power they have absolutly ‘Zero’ power and therefore moving Labor even further to the right?
Julie @ 56
“Downer is probably the worst one of the lot.”
After Howard, Ruddock must rank as Number 2, if long-term damage to legal institutions is considered. And the rest. Refugees, etc.
Downer at 3.
paul k Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 8:32 pm
No, no. We don’t want to lose Downer. Apart from the fact that he has been the most entertaining Foreign Minister we’ve ever had, if he hangs around after the election he is likely to become the Shadow Treasurer and that will be just too funny for words.
HAHAHA
[ a way of undermining the left faction ]
Maybe Rudd’s just trying to bring the ALP into the 21st Century. Why would you assume he would automatically try to undermine the left? It’s a bit of an absurdity that the man voted to lead the nation can’t choose he’s own team.
Melbourne winners. Watch for the presentation. Should be good.
Rudd’s team gets up. One all, Howard/Rudd in Grand Finals.
Paul, Bill, you might find it funny but he’s my representitive in Canberra and i’d like him replaced.
#
69
Molotov Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 9:03 pm
Is Rudd’s call to have ministers apointed by him rather than by caucus a way of undermining the left faction so that instead of ‘left’ having very little power they have absolutly ‘Zero’ power and therefore moving Labor even further to the right?
What left? the ALP has no left with a voice. What there was are now totaly silent. Rather sad really. The only way the ALP has a chance of winning is to be a lighter version of Howards libs. They had to clone the Libs to get somewhere
[Bill Shorten who paraded about with the surviving Beaconsfield miners at his campaign launch…]
What’s your point? They are both AWU members, and Australian citizens, if they want to endorse someone running for political office they can do so.
[But Julie i remember Shorten making himself so so so available for the media down at Beaconsfiled to boost his profile after just being announced as the Candidate he has exploited that tragedy either way]
He was a union leader representing members of his union. If he wasn’t there you’d be complaining that union leaders don’t represent their members.
No Workchoices ads on Nine in Sydney. Did they get scared off?
Paul, he would do precisely that: choose his own team, his favourites would be from Labor Right, hence undermining Left. He’s making the party itself more presidential and if dictatorial fascination with one man’s urges reigning supreme is what defines the 21st C. then i say bring on the 22nd C.!
No Workchoices ads on Nine in Sydney. Did they get scared off?
I think the monitoring of the blog sites has fed back to Liberal Headquarters. They seem to be taking a lot of notice of particular flood of comments and relating that back to strategy.
[No Workchoices ads on Nine in Sydney. Did they get scared off?]
9 played some during half time of the NRL final in Adelaide.
Great big boo on the thugby to Howard
Bill, of course, Labor is already dominated by the right but some are righter than others. The Liberals have a left faction who are simply less ‘far right’.
Glen,
Under a PROPORTIONAL system such as MMP it is not a straight two-horse race as far as winning seats in the House is concerned. There are also half a dozen or so other smaller parties winning seats. Thus it is actually very difficult for any party to win in a landslide.
For instance in the 2002 election, Labour had 19.4% lead over National in the terms of votes gained and won almost twice as many seats, but still did not win a majority of the seats in Parliament and had to rely on the two centre-left Progressive MPs and the centrist United party for a majority. Even then it’s majority was only 4 seats! (Note: Labour at the time was in strife with the Greens over GE food trials.)
Anyway on current polling National averages 48 – 52% support which is a healthy 10 – 15% ahead of Labour. However National even with ACT and United will have only a small majority (about 6 – 8 seats) over the Labour, Progressive, Green and Maori parties. Hardly a landslide.
National under Key will almost certainly be in government after the 2008 election, but because of the MMP system, it won’t be with a landslide parliamentary majority. A major party without sizeable coalition partners will have to poll over 55% to win in a landslide under MMP. Neither Labour nor National (even in recent polls) has achieved this since MMP was introduced in NZ in 1996.
Howard IS on stage for the official party to hand out the premiership medallions and yes he DID get a lound round of boos ….. For a brief few seconds, he looked terribly embarrased and wanted to probably dig a hole and hide …..
Julie i’m in Wakefield, currently liberal marginal by a wafer thin thread, i’m positive this one will go labor, the new guy Nick Champion is doing the street meets all the time, i was shocked that the libs got it last time– the Latham effect i think.
Molotov, Rudd is known to be a bit of a control freak and if he gets us over the line he’ll be able to ask for and get what he wants, i believe he himself is unaligned with any faction and Gillard is left, i never liked her at the last election but i think maybe i was biased because i loathed Latham, she’s certainly been impressive the way she’s been carving Hockey and Abbott up and then looking around for who’s next, she would after a few years make a good PM but she’d be unacceptable because of her left ties.
waits till he starts to speak
🙂
Julie, bugga i missed it– if anyone gets a link please post it lol.
Howard got booed when introduced, and tried to laugh it off. The MC then moved quickly onto the next intro.
[ Great big boo on the thugby to Howard ]
He gets booed fairly regularly now. I first noticed it when I attended the Commonwealth Games in Melbourne and 45,000 people suddenly started booing when he came out to give an athlete a gold medal.
Molotov, not really sure. I lived in Melbourne, in another safe Labor seat (Melbourne) at that time. The guy that they elected to replace Latham [Chris Hayes] has been really well received by all counts. I have been here in this seat now about 18 months (?) and he has been very helpful to me personally. Both he and people in his office gave me heaps of assistance over 2006 while I was getting my citizenship application processed. Don’t know what the current margin is but know it is safe Labor.
Really the Liberal party is listening in?
Well on an unrelated issue i have heard from a good source that the electorate of Murray is looking like a Labor win. If I was the Liberal Party I would spend lots of Money there so as to make sure it is kept!
I thought the boos were for the Melbourne players.
59
Albert Ross Says:
Yes very serious Albert. I am well aware of the projects name ( why add it to a post where few probable are) and well aware of it’s current state. The report you mention came in two version, one pointing out the problems that need to be addressed and the other the benefits. The former report was well publicized in the western press the latter hardly gets a mention.
The problems mentioned were landslides and unplanned development.
Yes unlike some of the things that happen in North America, there are good reasons for this.
1) Dams have limited life, sediment builds up making them useless.
2) Several are under attack because of the salmon run.
3) Several North American dams have structural problems and are unsafe ( there are a lot of earthen dams).
However we need power and a failed dams (of which North America has had it’s share) is a disaster that doesn’t create a
zones of alienation.
Re 70,
“Derek Corbett Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 9:04 pm
Julie @ 56
“Downer is probably the worst one of the lot.â€
After Howard, Ruddock must rank as Number 2, if long-term damage to legal institutions is considered. And the rest. Refugees, etc.
Downer at 3.”
Yeah, I was reminded about Ruddock, guess I forgot him. I will revise a personal hit list and make sure I have it by my fingertips on election night so that I can tick them off as they fall over 😉
KIWI what is the Maori Party like?
“bmwofoz Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 9:23 pm
I thought the boos were for the Melbourne players.”
No – I rewound it (gotta love digital) and yes the boos were for howard – he laughed it off as he must have been expecting it.
I thought the boos were for the Melbourne players.
bmwofoz 92
So, the winning team gets booed when Howard is introduced, but not any of the other dignitaries that were also introduced. That makes a lot of sense. NOT.
Unless, of course, you were joking?
Scorpio, thanks for you comments on Dawson, I hope you are right. I had some dealings with De-Anne Kelly a few years ago and while she is quite personable she is a complete Old Time Qld National Troglodyte. Do you know anything about the Labor candidate James Bidgood?
Re Cornes (again): When it comes to the crunch people in Boothby who want to get rid of Howard will vote for the Labor candidate even if she or he can’t count to ten. But do remember that this is for the most part an upper-middle-class seat which Labor has not won since 1946. Winning it was always a long shot.
Re Mayo: People in Mayo who want to get rid of Lord Downer should try to find a credible, high-profile independent to run against him, for example someone with foreign policy or defence credentials who can do what Wilkie did in Bennelong in 2004, only better. Neither Labor nor the Greens can win Mayo, but a good independent certainly can.
That should read “…but not when any of the other dignitaries were introduced.”
It’s been a long day.
Howard looked very small. He was left with a medal dangling in his hands while several players walked past him. Finally he found one only a foot and a half taller and just about mugged the guy putting the medal around his neck. After that he stayed well away from medals.