• Glenn Milne identifies three election date options for the Prime Minister: “go to Yarralumla next weekend for a six-week campaign and a November 17 poll”, “wait another week after that and run to November 24”, or “let Parliament resume its scheduled sittings from October 15 to 25 then go to a December 1 poll”.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian summarises recent reports of internal party polling thus:
There have been reports ALP polling shows Labor can win 10 seats in NSW, including the seat of Eden-Monaro, which has changed hands with government since 1972. Equally ostensibly secret polling names unlikely seats in Melbourne, such as Goldstein, falling to Labor and seats in Adelaide such as Boothby and Sturt being added to the three more marginal seats of Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, in South Australia. In the Northern Territory Solomon is assumed to be gone, as are Bass and Braddon in Tasmania … Recently the Sydney Daily Telegraph reported on its front page: “Labor is set to secure such a massive swing in NSW that the Liberals have formally surrendered all hope of winning a single new seat anywhere in this state at the federal election. As Kevin Rudd arrived in Sydney last night to base himself locally for the next three days, Labor polling shows 10 NSW seats could fall its way.” The Australian reported on its front page: “Labor is headed for a landslide victory in the crucial federal bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, according to leaked ALP research. The polling, obtained by The Australian, found the count would not even go to preferences, with Labor candidate Mike Kelly attracting 51 per cent of the primary vote over Special Minister of State Gary Nairn on 39 per cent”. The Melbourne Herald-Sun reported ALP polling showing that Labor “has dramatically expanded the number of target seats it hopes to win, with ALP elders declaring even previously rock-solid Coalition fortresses now in play”, including Goldstein, which is held by more than 10per cent.
• Friday’s West Australian (no link available) reports “growing concern within the Liberal Party that it may lose the blue-ribbon WA seat of Forrest at the coming election – not to Labor but to an Independent with a high profile”:
Noel Brunning, a former newsreader with Prime TVs Golden West News, is believed to be picking up strong interest among the voters despite his stop-start campaign. Internal Liberal Party polling is believed to have shown that Mr Brunning, 40, has a higher recognition in southern WA than either the Liberal candidate Nola Marino or Labor’s Peter MacFarlane. Forrest is being vacated by former minister Geoff Prosser at the next election and although the margin is a comfortable 10.5 per cent, the retirement of Mr Prosser after 20 years means the contest will be much closer. Not helping the Liberals campaign is the fact that the preselectors preferred candidate, Busselton Shire councillor Philippa Reid, withdrew from the contest late last year citing concern her involvement in Corruption and Crime Commission hearings into the $330 million Canal Rocks development would damage the party. Cr Reid’s relationship with divisive former Liberal powerbroker Noel Crichton-Browne was also causing concern within the party.
• After last week’s bad Boothby opinion poll and excruciating radio interview, John Wiseman of The Australian reports that Labor “closed ranks behind its South Australian glamour candidate Nicole Cornes yesterday, scotching suggestions that she might have booted an own goal with her latest media gaffe”. It now seems I might have been too quick to dismiss the poll’s finding that Cornes was doing particularly badly among women voters. While I don’t imagine he has too many fans among this site’s readership, Andrew Bolt of the Herald Sun might have been on to something here:
I suspect it’s because they’ve never liked women who just get by on looks. It seems an insult to clever women and a threat not just to the plain. Cornes’ status as a second wife only speaks to that distrust and contempt.
• A $5 billion federal government roads package to be unveiled this week will reportedly include plans for a $2 billion upgrade of the Bruce Highway from Brisbane to Cairns, and a $1 billion upgrade of the Pacific Highway from Sydney to Brisbane. The latter is of significance to the sensitive north coast seats of Page, Cowper and Paterson, while the Bruce Highway funding targets Hinkler, Flynn, Herbert and Leichhardt. As noted this morning by Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, this has prompted newspapers in Melbourne and Adelaide to complain the southern states have been “snubbed”.
• The Griffith University’s regular VAMPIRE (“vulnerability assessment for mortgage, petrol and inflation risks and expenditure”) study has identified what the Financial Review describes as “11 marginal and fairly safe Liberal seats in which more than half of all households are facing petrol and mortgage stress”: Moreton, Bonner, Lindsay, Macquarie, Deakin, La Trobe, Wakefield, Makin, Kingston, Hasluck and Stirling.
• The last Brisbane Liberal remaining under the cloud of the “printgate” affair, Bowman MP Andrew Laming, has been cleared by the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.
• The High Court has published the ruling that struck down legislation removing the right to vote from all prisoners in full-time custody.
• Having noted similar long-term trends, I thought it might be interesting to compare aggregated polling figures from Australia and New Zealand since the end of last year. New Zealand figures are a rough average of Roy Morgan and DigiPoll, Australia’s are from Reuters Poll Trend plus a September figure from Bryan Palmer.
Adam i agree re. Mayo and I was looking for a decent Independent candidate myself. There was one person contemplaiting but it looks as though he/she has pulled out. Still the 15% of people who voted for Deegan last time will have to go somewhere, probably split 2 to 1 between the Greens and Labor.
[But do remember that this is for the most part an upper-middle-class seat which Labor has not won since 1946. Winning it was always a long shot.]
So do you think Sturt is a more likely Labor gain?
Id just like to note how hilarious the Govt v Telstra stoush is. The govt outrage at being criticised by a body it used to own and control.
Well, you semi-privatised it, losers!
Now its getting up ya. hehe.
Julie @ 84
Significant booing? Enough to spoil his photo op?
Molotov: Yes but that won’t be enough to defeat Downer. It needs a candidate who can appeal to core Liberal voters. No-one wearing a Labor or Green label can do that. Try and find a disgruntled retired Admiral.
ShowsOn: Yes, and I did so before I knew anything about the candidates.
Derek #61,
re: Traitor! That’s right, shoot through…
I’m here for you baby. I promise I won’t visit NZ again unless Howard wins.
Sigh. I wish I was in an exciting seat. I’m in the Perth electorate. You only see Stephen Smith emerging from stabbing some factional enemy in the back or from cooking up some back room deal. I don’t think I’ve seen a thing from the libs in my mailbox yet.
Okay, now we have the Australian Government advertising it’s ‘Australian Citizenship Test’. Suppose that will firm up all the extreme right votes, but not much else.
Oh well, hopefully after the Coalitions electoral defeat Downer will retire and we can have a by-election. That would be fun!
Worst of
are the Libs doing any mailouts in perth or is it more print /tv ads
Barker’s looking dangerous for the Libs. if I was in charge of the party i’d increase spending there.
I will boo – boo boo boo. News Limited’s Storm. They should hang their heads in shame for what they did to the game. Four teams had to merge, one got booted out, and another had to go through the courts to get reinstated. I WILL NEVER FORGIVE OR FORGET!
We will get our revenge in the election. That’s much more important.
Quiz Question: At the Last federal election which sucessful candidate received the lowest primary vote? For a bonus point: What is the lowest primary vote that a candidate has received and then gone on to win at any election?
we can always have a pic of Downer on hand Julie on election night and stick pins in it hoping it will do us some good lol.
ive always found the state labor pollies good when ive needed them, and they treat me with respect, i had a lot to do with Chris Summner our now retired attorney general and Lynn Arnold several years ago and they became good friends, Michael Atkinson knows me quite well but not as close as i was to Chris. the libs when they were in treated us like nuisances, i had information about a well known prisoner getting special deals and treatment from his guards and i tried to let the lib attorney general who was in at the time know, he brushed me off and told me he didnt have time to speak to me, it blew up as a big scandal this year– ten years after i tried to tell the then AT. the libs here tried to make a big deal of blaming the Rann government until i told them i’d go public about the brush off.
One of the consequences of Rudd taking a firm hand on the composition of a Labor govt. ministry is that it helps nullify the fear campaign about “Union Bosses” being wielders of influence beyond their bailiwick.
*Gillard to Hockey in a future TV tete-a-tete*
“How many ministers will “Union Bosses” get to pick in a Rudd Labor Govt., Joe?”
Adam, I met Bidgood once, don’t know much about him but will find out and let you know.
Did anyone notice that a number of Manly players wouldn’t shake hands with Howard.
He looked almost in shock and was desperately grabbing at a number of players trying to get them to shake his hand.
Manly probably blame Howard for losing seeing he made such a point of pledging support for them. lol
Molotov … good question!
The Maori party is a party that was formed in 2004 after MP Tariana Turia left the Labour party after disagreeing with legislation Labour and it’s allies introduced on foreshore and seabed ownership issues, which she thought was racist (ie anti-Maori).
In the 2005 Election the Maori party won 4 of the 7 specially designated Maori seats in a parliament of 121 seats. The Maori party is led by Turia with Peter Sharples as a co-leader. However Sharples (who like 3 of the 4 Maori party MPs was only elected in 2005) due to his good leadership and media skills has assumed a higher profile than Turia.
The Maori party is hard to categorise on a left-right continuum, as it is an ethnically based party trying to represent a broad range of views among Maoridom. However I’d say it’s more centre-left than centre-right.
If it wasn’t for the enmity between Turia and Clark the Maori party would be a potential coalition partner for Labour. However it is not a natural coalition partner for National either, especially as National campaigned in the 2005 election to abolish Maori seats!
So for the time being the Maori party looks like being on the cross-benches. If it wins 4-7 seats in the 2008 election it could well hold the balance of power between the Labour-Progressive-Green and National-Act-United (or National-ACT-United-NZ First if NZ First get in!) blocs.
A bad night for the Rodent: Manly gets smashed, he gets booed and most of the players refuse to shake his hand LOL
One hopes it’s Howard’s last ever NRL GF presentation.
Was Rudd at the big game too?
Kev: thanks for the info about Sturt. It’d be nice if Pyne got thrown out!
No idea 😉 …. after I saw that, I turned it off. I am not a NRL person, I am an AFL person. My only motivation for watching the post game stuff to that point was to see Howard squirm. Once I got my fix, I turned it off. Will have to ask others who watched it in its entire length ….
I will say though that the rasberries were not as loud as they were at last years A-League GF though. Melbournians always have a louder anti-Liberal voice ;-).
If there is a by-election in Mayo, will the Libs still keep it? In otherwords, is it a safe Liberal seat or is it Downer that is keeping it safe? Will it fall if he isn’t in the picture?
neither the match nor the presentation was telecasted here, wot a bugga!!! i’d loved to have seen it.
Molotov, your observation about Barker is based on what, other than revolutionary optimism? I know Secker is completely invisible but this is a rural seat with a 20% majority.
When diesel hit $152.90 in Broome last week it was probably time to put Kalgoorlie on a price watch as well. It dropped 2c today so it was probably a pre-long-weekend scam with which the Eastern States are only too familiar. “Labor View from Broome’ is heading down to the North West Cape this week till the 12th of October. If Howard hasn’t called an election by then not enough people will have watched “John Howard: The Party’s Over” http://laborview.blogspot.com/ and passed on their thoughts to coalition pollies. Why are we waiting?
Judy,
Do you have cable at your place? If you do, look for Sky News tomorrow and watch highlights there. They might show that part. Also, check the various sports channels – Fox Sports News would be a good first bet. Also, the morning news programs on the free to air channels might show it too. Check the complete coverage in the Age tomorrow {www.theage.com.au}, it is Melbourne’s paper. Somewhere someway, it will turn up. If all else fails, perhaps someone will post on YouTube?
Buggar we missed that in Adelaide because as soon as the game ended the station cut to the Sunday night movie…I watched the entire game waiting to see Howard booed. oh well…I hope he did squirm and realise he also is in for a trouncing when he finally decides to call the election & stop wasting our time and money on those stupid “information” ads.
Mayo is a pretty strong liberal voting area, but I would say it is roughly split into 2 types of liberal voters. One is the proper old-fashioned small “l” liberals, and the others in the more rural parts of Mayo are the dyed-in-the-wool conservative types. The second grouping will never ever vote for anything but a conservative candidate, but the first grouping who have often voted Democrat in the past would certainly vote for a good independent candidate. As I’ve said before Downer won’t lose this seat. He might have a chunk of his primary wiped out, but that would be about the best one could hope for.
What’s the odds we might have a run of by-elections should the Libs lose this election? Can anybody seriously imagine Downer, Ruddock, and a few of the other oldtimers in safe seats sticking around for a long haul in opposition? These guys should probably be asked about their retirement plans in addition to Howard.
Bushfire
A sad picture you paint. Wonder if it will be represented in tomorrow’s papers? With big Canon and Nikons running off at 89 squillion frames a second, there must be one that captures the moment. Question is: Will it be published? Or will it be the standard Howard photo-op variety?
I’d say Justine Elliot in Richmond who had, from memory, a primary vote of around 35%.
Not too sure about the second question. But I suspect it was an independent or third party candidate. Michael Organ perhaps?
So Julie are you saying Keating or Beazley or Rudd would not get booed??
People always boo politicians regardless of who they are its just the way it
goes?
Tonight I think it is rather dubious to argue that Howard got booed i barely heard any from the telecast….At least Howard is a sporting guru he might be crap as all hell in playing it but he sure loves it…Rudd has no sporting history that we know of…
Adam my Barker call can be explained by my post at 91. Also did you notice Dr. Karl is with the CCC?
Anyway i’ll repeat myself:
Quiz Question: At the Last federal election which sucessful candidate received the lowest primary vote? For a bonus point: What is the lowest primary vote that a candidate has received and then gone on to win at any election?
Its amazing. Everytime I watch a Deep Space 9 episode with Ferengi in it, I can’t help but see the Liberal Party. Especially The Rules of Acquisition has to be the Liberal rules.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_of_Acquisition
Wikipedia says:
“Ferengi culture is so devoted to unregulated capitalism that concepts such as labor unions, sick leave, vacations, or paid overtime for workers are considered abhorrent, because they would interfere with exploitation of workers.” Sound Familiar?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferengi
John Howard has to be Quark. There is so many episodes that I have seen that seem to ring a bell, anyone else noticed?
My answer is @ 128, Molotov.
I see I didn’t really answer the second question properly. Too late now: I’ve since looked it up. Organ’s primary was even lower than I thought; so I’m probably on the money.
Glen: Rudd played Rugby at school.
The funniest thing was some of the Manly players refusing to shake Howard’s hand.
Glen said:
“Rudd has no sporting history that we know of…â€
Good. Sport in Australia is an over-rated pastime.
And no way would Kevin Rudd have been booed. Take another look at his satisfaction rating.
I can’t remember Hawke ever getting booed at a sporting event: a Bronx cheer perhaps, but never booed.
i dont bother with cable Julie, i had it piped to three rooms when the family was still home but i discontinued it a couple of years ago, ive got a TV here in my retreat next to the computor but i mainly watch ch2 news, 7 30 report and lateline, oh and of course meet the press and the insiders, ive got all the newspapers in my favourites and read them on line before i open my print copies of the Advertiser and the GG, ordinary telly programs dont interest me any more, in fact i never seem to have the time for them.
Victoria now holds the three major football code trophies: A-League, AFL and NRL.
If the Member for Higgins had had the intestinal fortitude to challenge Ratty a few weeks ago, Victoria would also have a prime minister to call their own.
Still, three out of four ain’t bad.
Channel 9 did a major shepherding job with Howard tonight.
The sound technicians made sure the mic’s picked up as little of the crowd booing as possible.
Also, the commentator made sure when mentioning Howard’s name (which was often), that he straight away announced a players name so as to provide cover for Howard so that people would be seen as rude to jeer.
Molotov yr #91 just moves the question back one stage: what’s your source about Murray? You can’t make assertions like that without some evidence.
I have noticed in the last couple of weeks that Jason Wood in La Trobe is putting signs all around my area with projects that have been paid by the fed govt. saying “delivered”………no wording or logo that says “Liberal” party though.
#138 Adam It was a joke. Read it carefully.
I notice now that Noel Brunning, standing as an Inde in Forrest, lists one of his aims: “… to protect WorkChoices …”
A front person, I’d guess.
i was a bit dissapointed at rudd’s no show at the grand final,i expected him to parachute in on the presentation singing the national anthem in chinese.
Fagin would you really have wanted the fourth trophy??
Julie you said you had to get citizenship papers, if its not too cheeky would you mind if i asked where you came from? i understand if you dont want to answer.
Adam, yeah Chris B @ 140 is right. Or is he???
Organ is a folklaw hero and champ!
Thanks David: second question: Whats the highest primary of all time?
I saw the A-League Final presentation on the TV news last year … got a great laugh when Kristian Sarkies (I think) kissed the top of Howard’s head after getting his medal.
The emperor has no clothes, and no respect either.
A bit off topic I know but here is a link to the letter Ackerman is promoting as the smoking gun to bring down Rudd. I think the Liberals are banking on the revived “Heiner issue” to peg back Labor’s lead in the polls.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/piersakerman/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/open_debate_is_needed/P30/
I don’t see what is in it to excite Ackerman. It is just to fan the seeds of doubt and hopefully get the issue an increased media coverage.
A lot of the commenters appear to be well schooled Liberal trolls even from WA. A couple in particular have posted almost identical comments on other sited with any reference to Heiner.
I don’t think Ackerman will leave it on too long so it might be good if someone could save it. I love the way he denigrates any poster who is critical of him. A couple of examples.
{Those are the facts, they are indisputable. You get over it. }
{You poor fool, }
{more the fool you. }
{My dear fellow, this is all a matter of public record which has been ignored by the Queensland authorities – fancy that! }
{If you don’t know what you’re talking about, please pull your head in. }
{Go take your medicine and go to bed.}
{ Don’t make wild unsupportable claims just because you disagree with what I have written. }
{Given the ferocity of the attacks upon me and their extraordinary lack of substance, I don’t think I am the person with the credibility problem. }
Unfortunately for Piers, I read all the posts and many, although critical, were soundly based and did not directly attack him, just critically examined his article and pointed out the paucity of the argument.
Back in Boothby. During the vast lulls in the footy, from an SA point of view, more politics, more Nicole.
Universally agreed, gee, a candidate is expected to understand the policies.
Mostly labor voters, a few others. Not to be mean to Nicole, but alternative candidate as I have said on earlier threads, such as Chloe Fox, not that she could have stood this election, would have walked it in against Andrew Southcott. Who is pretty well a non event, just fortunate.
Assuming Lib retains the seat, I am sure Chloe will go next Federal election.
is the governor general back in the country for him to disolve parliament and issue writs?