Morgan: 60.5-39.5

Today’s Roy Morgan poll suggests that voters have, er, reacted sympathetically to Kevin Rudd’s tax gaffe. Or perhaps been driven insane by the onslaught of government advertising on television. Either way, they’ve published a headline figure of 54 per cent for Labor’s primary vote, which seems to have been enough to have caused their server to crash. More details as they come to hand.

UPDATE: Crikey email reports a two-party split of 60.5-39.5. The Coalition primary vote is down from 39.5 per cent to 36 per cent (for those interested, the Nationals vote is down from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent). Labor’s primary vote in the previous survey was 49.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face survey with a sample of 972.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

904 comments on “Morgan: 60.5-39.5”

Comments Page 19 of 19
1 18 19
  1. Possum Comitatus: Says Victorians are confusing.

    I was flippant last time ( If the liberals retain one seat and the swing is even it would be Murray) , I will have a serious try this time.

    You only have three pieces of data, the national marginal swing, non marginal swing labor and liberal.

    The trouble with Victoria is our margin distributions are totally different to any other state. We have the safest liberal seat, the safest national seat, 9 seats that would fall to the liberals if there was a 4.8 swing to the liberals and none that will fall to the labor with the same swing to labor.

    If you want to use you data in Victoria I think you need to consider your three values as points on the graph for the average of a marginal seat ( I assume around 0%) and whatever the average of non marginal seats is ( depends on the definition, I don’t know what it is)

    Fit a line and then use that to guess the swings in seats of differing margins and see what you come up with.

    Doing it this way would result in one predicting a bigger swing in Murray than in Kooyong.

    I think it would also make the Victorian result less confusing, remembering that a lot of the Liberal safe seat responses came from Victoria because that is what we have.

  2. So a country in which about 10 per cent of the population dominants and controls the resources, power, can go to school have adequate health care and sanitaration and other human needs is the world you like Paul K?
    Hugo is now after many many years finally providing health care to the poor and education and at least doing something for the people of his country.
    Is that not the type of world we should have…
    Or perhaps i country like America where the poor don’t get adequate healthcare unless they have a fat wallet… is a better world for you

  3. [ i like the approach of Hugo Chavez ]

    Do these include the bits where he intends to make himself leader for life, to make the country undemocratic and to cancel the licences of TV stations that disagree with his views.

    Chavez is a big disappointment – another leftist leader who believes that the people are so important that they can’t be trusted.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 19 of 19
1 18 19