Phoney war dispatches: finals weekend edition

• Glenn Milne identifies three election date options for the Prime Minister: “go to Yarralumla next weekend for a six-week campaign and a November 17 poll”, “wait another week after that and run to November 24”, or “let Parliament resume its scheduled sittings from October 15 to 25 then go to a December 1 poll”.

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian summarises recent reports of internal party polling thus:

There have been reports ALP polling shows Labor can win 10 seats in NSW, including the seat of Eden-Monaro, which has changed hands with government since 1972. Equally ostensibly secret polling names unlikely seats in Melbourne, such as Goldstein, falling to Labor and seats in Adelaide such as Boothby and Sturt being added to the three more marginal seats of Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, in South Australia. In the Northern Territory Solomon is assumed to be gone, as are Bass and Braddon in Tasmania … Recently the Sydney Daily Telegraph reported on its front page: “Labor is set to secure such a massive swing in NSW that the Liberals have formally surrendered all hope of winning a single new seat anywhere in this state at the federal election. As Kevin Rudd arrived in Sydney last night to base himself locally for the next three days, Labor polling shows 10 NSW seats could fall its way.” The Australian reported on its front page: “Labor is headed for a landslide victory in the crucial federal bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, according to leaked ALP research. The polling, obtained by The Australian, found the count would not even go to preferences, with Labor candidate Mike Kelly attracting 51 per cent of the primary vote over Special Minister of State Gary Nairn on 39 per cent”. The Melbourne Herald-Sun reported ALP polling showing that Labor “has dramatically expanded the number of target seats it hopes to win, with ALP elders declaring even previously rock-solid Coalition fortresses now in play”, including Goldstein, which is held by more than 10per cent.

• Friday’s West Australian (no link available) reports “growing concern within the Liberal Party that it may lose the blue-ribbon WA seat of Forrest at the coming election – not to Labor but to an Independent with a high profile”:

Noel Brunning, a former newsreader with Prime TVs Golden West News, is believed to be picking up strong interest among the voters despite his stop-start campaign. Internal Liberal Party polling is believed to have shown that Mr Brunning, 40, has a higher recognition in southern WA than either the Liberal candidate Nola Marino or Labor’s Peter MacFarlane. Forrest is being vacated by former minister Geoff Prosser at the next election and although the margin is a comfortable 10.5 per cent, the retirement of Mr Prosser after 20 years means the contest will be much closer. Not helping the Liberals campaign is the fact that the preselectors preferred candidate, Busselton Shire councillor Philippa Reid, withdrew from the contest late last year citing concern her involvement in Corruption and Crime Commission hearings into the $330 million Canal Rocks development would damage the party. Cr Reid’s relationship with divisive former Liberal powerbroker Noel Crichton-Browne was also causing concern within the party.

• After last week’s bad Boothby opinion poll and excruciating radio interview, John Wiseman of The Australian reports that Labor “closed ranks behind its South Australian glamour candidate Nicole Cornes yesterday, scotching suggestions that she might have booted an own goal with her latest media gaffe”. It now seems I might have been too quick to dismiss the poll’s finding that Cornes was doing particularly badly among women voters. While I don’t imagine he has too many fans among this site’s readership, Andrew Bolt of the Herald Sun might have been on to something here:

I suspect it’s because they’ve never liked women who just get by on looks. It seems an insult to clever women and a threat not just to the plain. Cornes’ status as a second wife only speaks to that distrust and contempt.

• A $5 billion federal government roads package to be unveiled this week will reportedly include plans for a $2 billion upgrade of the Bruce Highway from Brisbane to Cairns, and a $1 billion upgrade of the Pacific Highway from Sydney to Brisbane. The latter is of significance to the sensitive north coast seats of Page, Cowper and Paterson, while the Bruce Highway funding targets Hinkler, Flynn, Herbert and Leichhardt. As noted this morning by Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, this has prompted newspapers in Melbourne and Adelaide to complain the southern states have been “snubbed”.

• The Griffith University’s regular VAMPIRE (“vulnerability assessment for mortgage, petrol and inflation risks and expenditure”) study has identified what the Financial Review describes as “11 marginal and fairly safe Liberal seats in which more than half of all households are facing petrol and mortgage stress”: Moreton, Bonner, Lindsay, Macquarie, Deakin, La Trobe, Wakefield, Makin, Kingston, Hasluck and Stirling.

• The last Brisbane Liberal remaining under the cloud of the “printgate” affair, Bowman MP Andrew Laming, has been cleared by the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.

• The High Court has published the ruling that struck down legislation removing the right to vote from all prisoners in full-time custody.

• Having noted similar long-term trends, I thought it might be interesting to compare aggregated polling figures from Australia and New Zealand since the end of last year. New Zealand figures are a rough average of Roy Morgan and DigiPoll, Australia’s are from Reuters Poll Trend plus a September figure from Bryan Palmer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

262 comments on “Phoney war dispatches: finals weekend edition”

Comments Page 4 of 6
1 … 3 4 5 6

  2. From Noel Brunning’s website blog (my emphasis added):

    “I support work choices so long as they are fair to both employee and employer. It’s not ggo creating a a system that just “log jams” the process of getting on with good business. It would be successfully argued that some in some instances some employers arn’t doing the right thing by their staff. I feel though that in the long run that will hurt their business growth and the loyalty shown to them by their staff. It’s just too hard at the moment to find good people – so why employers would want to short change workers is beyond me. As an employer I find the work choices system very fair. In my industry (hospitality) many of my casual staff “demand” felxible hours because of school or family commitments. The work choice system also offers a fair arrnagments for staff who want to work hard. Bonus payments are common and more than half of my staff earn more money than the exisiting award system allows. Simply because they deserve it. Surely that’s a fair thing. I believe that greater protection nnedds to be in place to ensure that young workers arn’t getting ripped off. But their parents also have the responsibilty to check agreements to make sure they are fair. All agreements should be registered – so make sure your emplkoyer is doing that (You’ll also get a letter back to say it has been registered).”

    I have posted him this comment:

    “Well Noel, since Work Choices is shaping up to be the central issue of the election, and since you support the Howard Government’s legislation, it seems that a vote for you is in effect a vote for Howard. So why shouldn’t people cut out the middle man and just vote for Nola Marino? On the other hand those who oppose Work Choices will now have no choice but to vote for Peter Macfarlane.”

  3. Worst of Perth @ 106

    My heart goes out.

    Mr Smith is, in my experience, a seriously under-animated person. But a good bloke.

    (As a pro photographer, some candidates make it hard).

  4. #51 Glen,

    You are drawing a mighty long bow to compare them Glen. Beaconsfield was primarily a story of survival. It was an accident in a heavily unionised and dangerous industry. AND the union provided much of the support in the rescue. While it was also a tragedy for the family of Larry Knight it is also an example of the need for unions in hazardous workplaces all across the country, Larry Knights family would say as much themselves. Abbot on the other hand, having fallen in a vat of verbal laxatives sometime after birth just reflexively sought to capitalize on an individual tragedy by making tenuous connections to labor where none existed. BIG difference.

  5. JC: The Administrator (Currently NSW Governor Marie Bashir) will disolve parliament/issue writs if the GG is not around (He’s not back for a while)

  7. Yes – back in Boothy – my electorate – I will vote for Nicole Cornes – I am looking at the bigger picture of voting out the Howard Govt and if it means voting for her then I will. I don’t pay attention to that rag of a newspaper the Advertiser. I would never vote for Southcott – he is entirely ineffectual in my view.

  8. What is it with Ackerman?

    Bolt is a die hard Liberal and Howard supporter but doesn’t stoop to childish trashy stuff like Acketman does.

    Ackerman has been trying to push this smear for ages even Barneby Joyce sunk into the feces pit to try and table it [who would have thought he had grown that slimey]. This has been through a bunch or reviews already and Rudd’s involvement, if there was one, is fairly remote. It’s simply not going to fly with the public, especially since it relates to an event that happened under a previous Qld govt.

  10. 4. The provisions of this Constitution relating to the Governor-General extend and apply to the Governor-General for the time being, or such person as the Queen may appoint to administer the Government of the Commonwealth.

    All the Governors have a “dormant commission” to act as Administrator (acting GG) if circumstances require. I think the right of the senior Governor to be Administator is just a convention.

  11. Bolt is a die hard Liberal and Howard supporter but doesn’t stoop to childish trashy stuff like Acketman does.
    Bolt was once a Labor staffer. Since then, he’s been a bit in love with Howard. He’s certainly done more than his fair share of sliming, the most prominent example of which was leaking a smear (from DFAT) against Andrew Wilkie. Bot is a professional dirt-digger compared to Piers’ amateurism.
    On the face of it, no anti-Rudd slur has worked thus far. Maybe the Howard fans think if they keep trying, they’ll reach a ‘tipping point’ of dirt, or something.

  14. Adam, James Bidgood has a Biography up on the ALP site. Link here.
    http://www.alp.org.au/people/qld/bidgood_james.php

    {James Bidgood (B.Sc Hons, Social Science) is a Councillor on the Mackay City Council, Financial Director of Caneland Medical Centre, and popular local identity. He opened a second surgery in March 2005 called One Stop Medical.}

    Comes from a working class and Union supporting background in the “old country”

    Looks to have the goods to really capitalise on workchoices and take it right up to DeAnne.

  15. I did mention my new bike, carbon traders. Electric. Pedalled self powered here there and everywhere. Zoomed up the steep hill with the motor on. Fantastic!

  17. Yes Scorpio, I have seen that. I meant does anyone have any personal knowledge of his capacity as a candidate. This will count for a lot in a country seat. De-Anne is a colourful personality and has a good stock of populist slogans – she will be hard to toss.

    Re Howard and Bashir. Yes, when Bashir is Administrator she will base herself at Admiralty House, which I believe is right next door to Howard’s modest suburban home, so he will just have to pop in to get the papers signed.

    Trivia: If this occurs, I’m fairly sure it would be the first time a woman has granted a dissolution of federal Parliament.

  20. I think she may also be the first person of non-European descent to give a federal dissolution.
    Not all Governors have had a dormant commission. The Queen withdrew Sir Colin Hannah’s (Queensland in 1975) commission at Whitlam’s request after he made some political remarks against the Whitlam Government.
    Question: If Bashir is the Administrator does she still occupy the position of Governor or does this go to NSW’s Lt Gov, the Chief Justice James Spiegelman, who incidentally was Gough’s chief press officer.

  21. Glennings

    When coming to sporting anthonologies, it would not best in best interst to the highlightings of great sporting hero Mr Howard to point to lack of prows in crickets or rungby. This shos disrefultable altiidues.

  22. All governors have a dormant commission unless the Queen, acting on advice, withdraws it.

    I think she occupies both positions simultaneously. It’s not like being Administrator is a fulltime job – she doesn’t take on the GG’s social schedule, only his constitutional functions.

    I gather than when the GG goes overseas, he signs an instrument appointing the senior Governor as Administrator. If the GG were to die or be incapacitated, the senior Governor’s dormant commission would come automatically into effect. When Lord Dunrossil died in 1961, Sir Dallas Brooks became Administrator immediately.

  23. I think it will be December 1st. Reasoning,
    – JWH has said on several occasions that it will be “before Xmas’. therefore MAYBE a January poll is off the agenda (however it isn’t a core promise)
    – He may be waiting for the advertising blitz rally to the coalition which has occurred in past campaigns
    -This doesn’t seem to be happening this time so he may try to use the October sitting of parliament to get a boost
    – This may not be forthcoming, but by then it’s too late for a Novemver election.

    Hope the above is true because I’m out of the country from 17 to 25 Nov, and I’ve been waiting a long time for what I now think is a virtual certainty!

  24. In addition to s4 of the constitution there is the Letters patent constituting the office of GG:
    VII. And We do hereby declare Our pleasure to be that, in the event of the death, incapacity, removal, or absence of Our said Governor General out of Our said Commonwealth, all and every the powers and authorities herein granted to him shall until Our further pleasure is signified therein, be vested in such person as may be appointed by Us under Our Sign Manual and Signet to be Our Lieutenant Governor of Our said Commonwealth: or if there shall be no such Lieutenant Governor in Our said Commonwealth, then in such person or persons as may be appointed by Us under Our Sign Manual and Signet to administer the Government of the same.

  25. I know this is off topic but there a fascinating debate and interview on the BBC right now about Climate Change with Bill Clinton and Michael Bloomberg. Got to say I miss Clinton when I think about the present occupant of the White House.

  26. Does Ackerman have any credibility and if not why do they employ him and have him on the Insiders? If he wants a bee in his bonnet I suggest he pester the Govt on the Manildra affair. Would love to see the uncensored document that was released under FOI.

  27. Ah James, you beat me to it 🙂

    Well paul, be of good cheer, because soon there will be Clinton II in the White House. In 2009 Hillary, Gordon and Kevin will reconstitute the Three Amigos, only this time as a force for doing good rather than for stuffing things up.

  29. Sunray the Underrepresented

    Your previous post at #171 might need some translation. The original:

    “Glennings
    When coming to sporting anthonologies, it would not best in best interst to the highlightings of great sporting hero Mr Howard to point to lack of prows in crickets or rungby. This shos disrefultable altiidues.”

    Might read better as:

    “Glen
    When using sporting analogies, it would not be in Mr Howard’s best interest in an attempt to highlight the degree to which he may appear as a great sporting hero to mention his lack of prowess in Cricket nor in Rugby. This shows disreputable attitudes.”

    However, a direct back-translation in Mandarin, (by a group also responsible for translating TV instructions into English for Chinese made TVs):

    ” Mr Glen

    When incorporation sporting analgesics into Mr Howard’s best investment, please not highlighting his appearance as a cricket or Rug Bee. His prowess not for reputable attitudes person.”

    I hope this helps 🙂

    When

  32. On the record thread someone said

    Also, it’s worth the Greens persisting in their attempts to win lower house seats (at a State level) where the Coalition can’t be bothered providing any opposition candidates.

    The are thousands of good reasons in the Greens persisting with running candidates in lower house seats both state and federal – electoral funding for the local groups.

    Also by judicious use of lower house preferences the Greens can influence policies of the major parties.

  33. A quick run down on Forrest from a local

    Forrest will almost certainly be retained by the Liberals this election but the margin will be cut to only a few percent. Noel Brunning is not an issue he wont and cant run second, the ALP last time got around 28% primary and will get much more this time possibly around 35%+. The swings will come division wide but will be strongest in the Carey Park booths, the South Bunbury area, Eaton and Margaret River. The tree changers in areas like Bridgetown and Nannup are also in a swinging mood. Collie will remain the ALP’s stronghold. see my booth map ” rel=”nofollow”>here for more info.

    Noel Brunning will nearer to the election preference the Libs he is deep down very conservative. This will hurt him, swing voters see him as a slightly less evil option and will be angered when he preferences them after saying he will not preference anyone. Also he has a tendency to say stupid and ridiculous things at town hall style meetings. The more he speaks the more votes he loses.

    The Lib candidate Nola Marino is in no uncertain terms a joke. She is attempting to win this race by advertising and does not attend candidate debates or go on local radio with other candidates. The Libs are using WA senator Judith Adams to attack the ALP candidate instead of Marino. I dont think they have confidence in her. Oh and she’s a closet National.

    The ALP candidate is being very active and getting around the electorate and reports getting a good reception in most areas. He probably cant win but he is giving it a real good go.

    Oh and on a side note Geoff Prosser a few months ago utilised the services of Julian Grill (Burkes friend) for a Development Application in Bunbury. One Councillor reported being lobbied by Grill in a local newspaper. I am surprised nothing has come of this especially since just meeting with burke will get you sacked.

  34. There was some discussion of Barker(SA) above: a claim that the Libs are in trouble.

    This is hard to believe.

    However, Barker is interesting in being one of the handfull of safe electorates where the odds of a third party or independent win are greater than the odds of a win by the other main party.

    According to Portlandbet this is true of:

    safe coalition: Forrest, Calare, Parkes and Barker

    independent: Kennedy and New England

    safe Labor: Melbourne, Corio, Gellibrand, Gorton, Cunningham, Grayndler, Sydney

    Labor is being challenged by the Greens I guess in these last 7 seats.

    Forrest and Calare have prominent independents.

    Parkes has the CCC.

    But I wonder who would be the most likely winner of Barker if it wasn’t the Liberals.

  36. [ In 2009 Hillary, Gordon and Kevin will reconstitute the Three Amigos ]

    After what we’ve had up to now they’ll be likened to The Holy Trinity. I’m embarrassed to say I was once a Bush supporter. What a huge disappointment he has turned out to be.

  37. Thanks Hossen that is valuable gossip.

    William, you should try to secure an intelligent well-informed local correspondent in each of the 150 seats who can post bulletins of useful info like that to keep us all informed. I’d volunteer for Melbourne Ports but my affiliations are a bit too well-known.

  42. Adam, I spot three errors on your pendulum:

    Calare – should be John Cobb (not Michael)
    Parkes – should be Mark Coulton (not Colbran)
    Perth – should be Stephen Smith (not Steven)

  44. James,
    You might be quoting from the pre-1984 Letters Patent. The 1984 version and subsequent amendments are available at http://www.gg.gov.au.

    Currently a person appointed as administrator does not assume administration of the Cth until requested by the GG or the PM.

    d

  47. Thanks William and Adam, more coming over the coming weeks. I’d be happy to keep all informed about the going’s on in Forrest.

  49. Good spot Hossen27. I notice that Howards net satitisfaction is now negative.

    So now we wait for Glen to come try to bury this thread due to Newspoll figures still being bad for the Coalition

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 4 of 6
1 … 3 4 5 6