Phoney war dispatches: finals weekend edition

Glenn Milne identifies three election date options for the Prime Minister: “go to Yarralumla next weekend for a six-week campaign and a November 17 poll”, “wait another week after that and run to November 24”, or “let Parliament resume its scheduled sittings from October 15 to 25 then go to a December 1 poll”.

Dennis Shanahan of The Australian summarises recent reports of internal party polling thus:

There have been reports ALP polling shows Labor can win 10 seats in NSW, including the seat of Eden-Monaro, which has changed hands with government since 1972. Equally ostensibly secret polling names unlikely seats in Melbourne, such as Goldstein, falling to Labor and seats in Adelaide such as Boothby and Sturt being added to the three more marginal seats of Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, in South Australia. In the Northern Territory Solomon is assumed to be gone, as are Bass and Braddon in Tasmania … Recently the Sydney Daily Telegraph reported on its front page: “Labor is set to secure such a massive swing in NSW that the Liberals have formally surrendered all hope of winning a single new seat anywhere in this state at the federal election. As Kevin Rudd arrived in Sydney last night to base himself locally for the next three days, Labor polling shows 10 NSW seats could fall its way.” The Australian reported on its front page: “Labor is headed for a landslide victory in the crucial federal bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, according to leaked ALP research. The polling, obtained by The Australian, found the count would not even go to preferences, with Labor candidate Mike Kelly attracting 51 per cent of the primary vote over Special Minister of State Gary Nairn on 39 per cent”. The Melbourne Herald-Sun reported ALP polling showing that Labor “has dramatically expanded the number of target seats it hopes to win, with ALP elders declaring even previously rock-solid Coalition fortresses now in play”, including Goldstein, which is held by more than 10per cent.

• Friday’s West Australian (no link available) reports “growing concern within the Liberal Party that it may lose the blue-ribbon WA seat of Forrest at the coming election – not to Labor but to an Independent with a high profile”:

Noel Brunning, a former newsreader with Prime TVs Golden West News, is believed to be picking up strong interest among the voters despite his stop-start campaign. Internal Liberal Party polling is believed to have shown that Mr Brunning, 40, has a higher recognition in southern WA than either the Liberal candidate Nola Marino or Labor’s Peter MacFarlane. Forrest is being vacated by former minister Geoff Prosser at the next election and although the margin is a comfortable 10.5 per cent, the retirement of Mr Prosser after 20 years means the contest will be much closer. Not helping the Liberals campaign is the fact that the preselectors preferred candidate, Busselton Shire councillor Philippa Reid, withdrew from the contest late last year citing concern her involvement in Corruption and Crime Commission hearings into the $330 million Canal Rocks development would damage the party. Cr Reid’s relationship with divisive former Liberal powerbroker Noel Crichton-Browne was also causing concern within the party.

• After last week’s bad Boothby opinion poll and excruciating radio interview, John Wiseman of The Australian reports that Labor “closed ranks behind its South Australian glamour candidate Nicole Cornes yesterday, scotching suggestions that she might have booted an own goal with her latest media gaffe”. It now seems I might have been too quick to dismiss the poll’s finding that Cornes was doing particularly badly among women voters. While I don’t imagine he has too many fans among this site’s readership, Andrew Bolt of the Herald Sun might have been on to something here:

I suspect it’s because they’ve never liked women who just get by on looks. It seems an insult to clever women and a threat not just to the plain. Cornes’ status as a second wife only speaks to that distrust and contempt.

• A $5 billion federal government roads package to be unveiled this week will reportedly include plans for a $2 billion upgrade of the Bruce Highway from Brisbane to Cairns, and a $1 billion upgrade of the Pacific Highway from Sydney to Brisbane. The latter is of significance to the sensitive north coast seats of Page, Cowper and Paterson, while the Bruce Highway funding targets Hinkler, Flynn, Herbert and Leichhardt. As noted this morning by Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, this has prompted newspapers in Melbourne and Adelaide to complain the southern states have been “snubbed”.

• The Griffith University’s regular VAMPIRE (“vulnerability assessment for mortgage, petrol and inflation risks and expenditure”) study has identified what the Financial Review describes as “11 marginal and fairly safe Liberal seats in which more than half of all households are facing petrol and mortgage stress”: Moreton, Bonner, Lindsay, Macquarie, Deakin, La Trobe, Wakefield, Makin, Kingston, Hasluck and Stirling.

• The last Brisbane Liberal remaining under the cloud of the “printgate” affair, Bowman MP Andrew Laming, has been cleared by the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.

• The High Court has published the ruling that struck down legislation removing the right to vote from all prisoners in full-time custody.

• Having noted similar long-term trends, I thought it might be interesting to compare aggregated polling figures from Australia and New Zealand since the end of last year. New Zealand figures are a rough average of Roy Morgan and DigiPoll, Australia’s are from Reuters Poll Trend plus a September figure from Bryan Palmer.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

262 comments on “Phoney war dispatches: finals weekend edition”

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  1. Reverting to a long dead discussion of who won election with the lowest primary vote… aren’t we forgetting the FFP in the Vic Senate election, who actually lost their deposit, but still got their candidate up!
    (Thank you steve conroy, and all the other bean counters at alp HQ)

  2. {while the Bruce Highway funding targets Hinkler, Flynn, Herbert and Leichhardt. }

    William, I don’t think Howard offering highway upgrading through these electorates will gain any votes at all.

    North Queensland is still waiting for the promised $400 million all-weather upgrade which Howard offered after the cyclone at Tully/Innisfail.

    So the fact that Howard has been known to offer “non-core” promises will count against any vote movement.

    Herbert is probably the Coalition’s best chance out of the three. Hinkler and the new seat, Flynn are only small margins and with the figures Labor are polling at present in QLD, they will definitely fall to the ALP.

    Leichhardt, with a new candidate from the Libs and a good, well known Labor candidate and being an area which has long been a strong Labor area State wise, should follow the trend identified elsewhere and fall to Labor with a healthy margin.

  3. [Good ol’ Dennis, still at it.]

    Was just about to mention that – the Shamaham is still waiting for Howard’s “Bounce”.

    Keep waiting Dennis old son…………

  4. [Good ol’ Dennis, still at it.]

    Yeah, my favourite line is:

    “There is also a mounting view that Kevin Rudd will suffer the longer the election campaign runs.”

    Unfortunatley, these “view mounters” remain anonymous.

    I think he means Liberals are HOPING Rudd suffers during the campaign.

    Also, according to Shanahan, we should now be in the middle of the campaign. He doesn’t have any credibility calling the election date, because he picks differnet dates with each article he writes.

  5. [ John Howard is much more likely to accept the advice from his ministers and advisers to hold off calling the election as long as possible if Newspoll continues to show no closing of the gap in Labor’s lead.

    There is also a mounting view that Kevin Rudd will suffer the longer the election campaign runs. ]

    From Shanahan’s article in the Australian on the latest Newspoll. Where does he get this from? For all intents and purposes we’ve had an election campaign for ages now and the polls haven’t moved.

  6. Molotov at 130 asked

    What is the lowest primary vote that a candidate has received and then gone on to win at any election?

    My guess is 16.6% of primary vote for Henry Hewson (Country Party) McMillan 1972

  7. Adam #200

    Unfortunately I have very little to no info on Canning but I will consult my rolladex. Canning is very hard to pick. But have heard good things about Stirling for the ALP. The former labor areas in the east around Mirrabooka should swing back to Labor hard and the west (Lib areas) will not swing against.

    There is also a good chance the Nationals will poll higher in O’Connor than the ALP this time around. The ALP candidate is Dominic Rose he’s about 20 and the National is quite a impressive candidate. Tuckey will win, obviously, but 2010 is a possibility.

  8. It’ll be a cold day in Hell before anyone at the Morgoth press concedes this election. They’ll still be arguing the toss on the Monday morning after.

  9. If the mounting view is that Rudd will suffer in long campaign, why not call it now??? And based on what evidence? The last 9 months? Hardly. Also there are probably only 3 normal newspolls left before election.
    The bounce and comeback better happen fast. Time is running out…

  10. Hossen, Dominic Rose is indeed 20, and although I’m sure he’s a fine young man I can’t see him doing very well. The Nats have an excellent candidate in Phil Gardiner. I would have thought, given that Tuckey is 71, clearly past his best and increasingly erratic, that Gardiner would have to be given some chance.

  11. That Newspoll is not bad.

    However, it did interrupt my investigations into the possibility of tactical voting in Federal Australian elections.

    I have not heard this discussed here before. It used to be a popular topic before UK elections.

    However, it seems that Calare and Forrest could both be taken away from the coalition by tactical Labor/Green voters.

    Barker could also be transferred from Liberals to Nationals by tactical Labor and Green voting.

    I am not sure if any of this would make a better parliament but it might be worth discussing.

  12. I would have thought the extra time beneficial to Labor as well, giving them time to work over policy detail and get their local actions organised – also for the unions get their local acts together too. Not to mention that more and more people go onto AWAs each day.

    Howard’s waiting for a better polls giving Rudd time to get his army well and truly into position.

    I wonder if we are going to hear more from the Liberal toilet mouths over voters continual sleepwalking.

  13. Labor voters won’t vote for Brunning if he’s pro-WorkChoices.

    Likewise I don’t see the point in Labor voters supporting the Nationals, although I assume in a seat where Labor expects to come third they would preference the Nats just to make trouble for the Coalition.

    Priestley in Calare must be given some chance although I’ve not heard any local info from there. It’s hard to know whether Andren’s removal from the campaign will reduce Priestley’s chances. (Any news on Andren’s health, by the way?)

  14. Adam #213

    I agree, Dominic is young man who is willing to put himself out there where many older ALP members wouldn’t. I can tell you no adult member wanted to run for O’Connor. Gardiner has a chance since Labor will preference him but Farmers are a strange political beast. I know many wheatbelt farmers and they all hate Tuckey but they seem to be unsure about the federal nats, many vote national at state level.

    Tuckey makes my skin crawl and I thought be would step down this time. If he goes down I will be partying regardless of the outcome.

  15. Adam,

    If you watch that second BRunnig Video I posted, you will see the ALP & LIb Candidates, and a grab from his launch speech.

    From what I’ve seen of his website, he loves the sound of his own voice and he reminds me of Mike Moore 🙂 aka an Airhead.

  16. I have been informed that Brunnings launch was attended by at most 30 people, all of which paid to be there. For his original campaign launch which was postponed due health concerns (he was all campainged out) he received 3 RSVP’s.

    30 people, he couldn’t even man half the booths in Forrest with that.

  17. [Labor voters won’t vote for Brunning if he’s pro-WorkChoices. ]

    But if a pro-WorkChoices candidate is going to win, isn’t it better for Labor that it isn’t someone who will sit in the Liberal party room?

  18. I loved this bit from Shanahan.

    {The Prime Minister and his ministers have all indicated publicly that they do not expect the published polls to narrow until the election is called, and possibly then not until the last couple of weeks of the campaign. }

    If the polls are still showing 56/57 to 44/43 with two weeks to go, I think most of the Coalition will have to be on medication and wear mittens so as not to chew their fingers down to their wrists.

  19. ShowsOn, I think Labor voters will only vote tactically for an independent conservative candidate if they are absolutely certain their own candidate has no chance of winning. That is the case in O’Connor, but not in Forrest. Labor won Forrest in 1969 and came fairly close in 1983.

  20. Looks like the GG are doing some fishing on behalf of the Libs with their latest online poll.

    What will most influence your vote.
    Leader
    Party Team
    Basic Ideology
    Family Tradition
    Single Issues

    This one seems to me to be specifically targeting Labor voters to gain an idea of which area the Libs should concentrate on.

  21. [If the polls are still showing 56/57 to 44/43 with two weeks to go, I think most of the Coalition will have to be on medication and wear mittens so as not to chew their fingers down to their wrists.]

    This is why I think waiting is dumb. The polls have been the same since March / April, does Howard honestly think he is going to wake up Tuesday week to see a Newspoll that says 52/48? What if he gets another rogue that says 59/41, what does he do then? Wait even more? What if he wakes up on November 5th, and the Galaxy or Nielsen says it is 57/43? Does that mean we don’t have an election until a week before Christmas? Who honestly thinks that will work in his favour?

    The fake campaign has been running all year, the longer he waits, the more desperate people will think he is, because people expect us to currently be in the middle of a real compaign.

  22. [Frank, I notice that video called the Labor candidate “Ian Macfarlane”. His name is Peter Macfarlane. I hope he sued them :).]

    It’s GWN – Parish Pump local Television owned by Prime, with Kerry Stokes I think owning a fair chunk (I could be wrong there). I’m pretty sure Brunning is trying to emulate Peter Andren in the Celebrity Country TV STar makes goes to Parliament. – but Noel hasn’t got Peter’s charms, skill and most importantly – respect.

  23. [I heard only once today on Abject Broadcasting Commission, that Howard was scared to face the voters. Anyone?]

    I think things are going to start getting very dangerous for Howard if he keeps waiting and waiting.

    At the moment I think parliament will sit next October, and the government will pull out all the stunts they can think of to try to attack Rudd.

  24. If this is the advice that Howard is getting, then it is very poor advice.

    {John Howard is much more likely to accept the advice from his ministers and advisers to hold off calling the election as long as possible if Newspoll continues to show no closing of the gap in Labor’s lead.

    There is also a mounting view that Kevin Rudd will suffer the longer the election campaign runs. }

    There is no way that Rudd will be concerned with a longish campaign. For heaven’s sake, he is ahead by miles and in the box seat.

    The Coalition on the other hand, have been behind for 11 months, have shown that they are affected by this in the uncharacteristic errors made so far and the leadership fiasco and as more panic and desperation sets in, which it will, they will make even more errors and possibly self preservation will cause division and total collapse of their strategy. I’m off to bed. catch up with you all in the morning.

  25. “At the moment I think parliament will sit next October”
    whoa showson, i hope you meant This October. Another year of this circus, Gawd help us!

  26. The absolute obession at this website with what The Australian and its commentators have to say is really very puzzling. Firstly we know the editorial team at The Aust is glued onto Howard and are bending all their efforts to pumping up his chances – does this really need to be reiterated every time Shanahan and Milne provide new evidence? Secondly no-one reads the bloody rag anyway, it has a tiny circulation, nearly of whom know who they’re voting for already, so its real political influence is very small. The really influential papers in Australia are the Fairfax flagships the Age and the SMH, the mass circulation tabloids the Herald Sun and the Telegraph, and the monopoly papers the West, the Advertiser and the Courier-Mail. Yet hardly anyone here ever quotes anything from them or appears to be aware of their existence, except for Bolt and Ackerman’s columns. It shows what an elite bubble most of us here live in.

  27. [The really influential papers in Australia are the Fairfax flagships the Age and the SMH, the mass circulation tabloids the Herald Sun and the Telegraph, and the monopoly papers the West, the Advertiser and the Courier-Mail. Yet hardly anyone here ever quotes anything from them or appears to be aware of their existence, except for Bolt and Ackerman’s columns.]

    Bit hard to comment on The West when they have a piss poor website which only publishes a fraction of their stories online (unless you fork out a small fortune for their Pay Per View version).

  28. [whoa showson, i hope you meant This October. Another year of this circus, Gawd help us!]

    Yes my mistake. But the way Paul Kelly and Dennis Shanahan keep amending their election date predictions, I am now expecting them to simply say “yes, there WILL be an election, because Australia is a democracy” 😛

    Well, being realistic, Shanahan just loves to throw up a few dates in each article, he doesn’t have to be right, because he gets to write another article a few days later!

    [does this really need to be reiterated every time Shanahan and Milne provide new evidence? ]

    They don’t provide evidence, that’s what’s so entertaining / amusing!

    [Yet hardly anyone here ever quotes anything from them or appears to be aware of their existence, except for Bolt and Ackerman’s columns.]

    Hey no fair, I made the call that The Advertiser will endorse Rudd. Mark Kenny is one of the most pro-Rudd reporters. He is the guy that dined with Downer and broke the “Downer for S.A. Premier” story, which ultimately came down to Downer big noting himself after a couple of reds.

  29. KiwiPundit, thanks for that explication – very useful outline of the situation. I also note that a group of your reasonable and kindly countrymen will soon be responding publicly to the propositions aired in this thread regarding the prospect of an Australian takeover of New Zealand. Their argument will be emphatic and, I fear, convincing. October 13 at Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France. Perhaps we should let that outcome settle the issue?

  30. [I also note that a group of your reasonable and kindly countrymen will soon be responding publicly to the propositions aired in this thread regarding the prospect of an Australian takeover of New Zealand. ]

    Since Tim Fischer retired, I haven’t heard anything about a shared currency between Aus and N.Z. It seemed to be all he talked about as he approached retirement.

    Is there actually any economic benefit for Australia of having a shared currency? The amount of N.Z. currency that I used to see when working retail made me think everyone already assumed we had shared currency, even though Aus money is worth ~15% more.

  31. Scorpio @ 225, I was thrilled to see that the vast majority of voters in the Oz’s online poll have chosen “basic ideology” as the biggest influence on their vote. I have heard much anecdotal evidence that howard’s aspirational voters have been left feeling empty.

  32. Adam @ 233

    Please tell me you made a mistake when you called the The Advertiser an influential newspaper. Please. I shudder at the thought.

    (actually, in all seriousness, very few people down south think it has any credibility at all. Of course, it could be that I’m just associating with people with an IQ greater then, ooh, 80, and that those below that take it seriously. Who knows?)

    I mean, for crying out loud, I think editorial considers the ‘Advertiser Watch’ groundbreaking journalism. Weep.

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/news/advertiser_watch/

    And for a story regarding the watch:
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22011269-5006359,00.html


    FAULTY water pipes in Davoren Park, that had burst seven times in five weeks leaving residents without water, were promptly fixed.

    MEMORIALS at West Terrace Cemetery cleared of weeds the day after an Advertiser Watch report.

    Where would we be without the tiser?

  33. JCB @ 237

    Who said anything about asking the kiwi’s if they want to be taken over? What are they going to do? Throw rugby’s at us?

  34. Was just reading more of my favourite cretin Shanahan. Had to share this bit:
    “This goes to the point of Newspoll surveys becoming an end in themselves. Unlike the pollsters, strategists and leaders, most MPs don’t really have a clue about polling, even in their own seat. Newspoll’s authority imbues it with an influence far beyond its actual two-weekly survey results because that’s what the Labor and Coalition MPs use as a foundation for their attitude towards the election and their leadership.”

  35. [“This goes to the point of Newspoll surveys becoming an end in themselves. Unlike the pollsters, strategists and leaders, most MPs don’t really have a clue about polling,]

    Just don’t get me started on how little bloggers and the arts community understand about polling! 😛

  36. Well, for me, Adam, I look at the many. A mere internet once over, to note what is being retailed.

    All the stuff that papers such as the Herald Sun etc publish are pretty well replicated in Murdoch’s SA tabloids for example, and are imbibed by those who do.

    So, ultimately no need to quote same and same on this site.

    The Australian itself and the Fairfax papers at least have opinion pieces from a broader spectrum, love or hate them, and some are actually analytical.

    Thus one can examine and feel confident in quoting a worthy and substantiated piece. Or even the unworthy. Backed up or challenged by other sources. Which helps in general discussion.

    Interesting always to see eyes open when another point is brought into play.

  37. Adam @233

    Agree. Low-involvement voters have probably never heard of it. If they have, they shun it. All those words. Uncle Rupert’s power lies with his tabloids and the use of 120pt headlines based on flimsy facts.

  38. Max, I don’t think they care much if we ask! They’ll give us a direct opinion anyhow. And it will hurt… On the other hand, their Air Force no longer has any teeth to speak of, so maybe you have a point.
    But I’d as soon leave things the way they are – life is more interesting this way.

  39. Judy @ 143,

    I am from the USA and I am not going back. I consider myself Australian now. The USA allows dual citizenship so I kept my birth citizenship but the only aim there was so that I can continue to vote at the presidential elections ;-).

  40. Does anyone doubt that Kirribilli will be vacant after the election? Rudd will retain the tradition of the PM using the Lodge 😉 ……

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