Morgan’s now-weekly face-to-face poll, from a sample of 844, shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 59-41 to 56.5-43.5. The Coalition’s primary vote is up from 36 per cent to 39.5 per cent, and Labor’s down from 51 per cent to 49.5 per cent.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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Howard’s biographer is someone to be listened to?
And why do they say Labor’s vote is soft but don’t give their rationale for the statement. The last Newspoll taken showed the LNP vote being softer.
And all I know is Paul Keating had one hot button, Kevin Rudd has at least three according to many polls I have seen. Work Choices, Nuclear Power and Global Warming. And before you say the economy, the GST beat the economy as an issue.
Monica Lynagh aka Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs
A hard labor supporter once pointed out to me that once the depression and 2nd world war got serious Australia turned to Labor. Perhaps we are far enough into the “The war on whatever” for this to happen again.
Charles, I am not saying the roles of the parties have changed over, I’m saying they don’t have any role at all. The Liberals stand for nothing these days. They used to be anti-union but unions have been marginalised for years and the electorate knows it (certainly well before Workchoices).
Chris B, I definitely think what you are saying is true, the Liberals are not running a normal campaign on the marginals, they are trying to save their core seats and salvage the party. The leadership has known about this for a while but every time they bring it up, the party goes into a funk. When Howard went to Eden-Monaro, a seat they have no chance of holding, it was largely for the party’s benefit.
There won’t be an interest rate rise in November. The recent cuts to interest rates in the US put paid to that. The $A is soaring against the $US and the cross currencies. Imports are getting significantly cheaper, putting downward pressure on inflation.
The election isn’t going to be announced on Sunday based on comments today made by both Howard and Costello. This eliminates October 27th. The next available date is November 3rd and is the Saturday before the Melbourne Cup, traditionally a long weekend for Victorians and those who live near Victoria. Rule a line through this date as well.
Any date from November 10th is possible. Assume there will be a long campaign (ie. 6-7 weeks). Assume the election will be called before MPs prepare to book accommodation and fly back to Canberra for parliament, but after the footy finals have finished. Assume the PM will be wary of a fractious and impatient public.
The election will probably be announced on Sunday 30th September. Election date will probably be either November 10th or 17th. It appears logical but is election timing logical?
I really can’t see the PM waiting until December. He’ll look like the Araldite Man.
Actually once the Depression got serious Australia turned AGAINST Labor, at least federal Labor. Labor won the 1929 election just before the Wall St Crash, and was thrown out in 1931. In fact every government in Australia that was in office at the start of the Depression was thrown out, regardless of party.
I believe you can add to that list the “It’s Time” factor. It makes for a formidable list of options, all added together. I’m not sure Nuclear Power is a big issue yet, and IMO Global Warming is not as potent as Work Choices.
Unless someone is a psephologist they shouldnt be talking down to others on polls and, even then statements need logic in support. It is simply not enough to say this or that will happen unless reasons are given – otherwise it is simply opinion no more valid than another and no one is the wiser.
@ 146 Gary Bruce Says:
Awwww, no baby. Don’t fight the feeling.
😉
Further more the last two weeks of Labor last two elections have been pathetic. They need to go for the Jugular. They have ready made issues, so its up to them. I heard a guy the other day talking about his meetings on Work Choices. Three things stood out of all of his meetings. The high number of ex liberal voters and the high number of people who had been anti unionists actively working for the unions. And how adamant those people were in saying Labor and the unions were NOT to stuff this up.
Paul K,
First since May there has been a slight move towards the Liberals, and logic says the TPP will be closer, but the average is still around 57%-43%.
I recall we all were saying that the Liberals would improve post budget, this did occur but in August this appeared to go into reverse, now while we still have a campaign to come.
In light of some massive state poll wins for the ALP in the past 10 years, and based on the behaviour of the Govt, we can’t totally discount the chance that the polls could be right while I have been questioning the poll numbers.
If they are then we are in for a very interesting election night, but as I have written before for a landslide to occur the ALP don’t need to score high 50s TPP for it comes to 150 by-elections and as is showing up in the polling is the swing is very patchy.
Between now and Election day we will hear many seats mentioned as possible gains only to have Anthony Green while calling the board go “some though that seat could be close but the MP is comfortably returned”
A great win by *OPPS* in tonights Prem final
Also a lot of these people have never ever been to a union meeting in their life. This sort of thing is happing all over Australia.
Just looking through the Newspoll results, sorted by marginal and non-marginal seats.
In Labor’s safe seats, the results are great for Labor: very high dis-satisfaction with Howard (34/55 satisfied/dissatisfied); a very strong primary Labor/Coalition vote (57/26); an equally strong 2PP (69/31); and very strong satisfaction with Rudd (64/19). (This is reflected across all seat categories).
This tends to support the view that these seats are voting their core economic interest. Because marginal electorates contain blends of Labor-tending and coalition-tending areas, you should expect to see relative Labor strength in the marginals as well in these key variables, especially in contrast with safe coalition seats. Newspoll indicates this is indeed occurring. Satisfaction with Howard is lower in marginal seats than safe Coalition seats (45% and 49%, respectively) and dis-satisfaction is higher (49% and 44%). The coalition primary vote is markedly lower in marginal seats than safe seats (38% and 46%) as is the 2PP vote (42% and 51%).
This really illustrates how difficult it is going to be for Howard to get out of trouble. He has to get his primary vote in the marginals up from 38% to at least 45.5% on average to hold on to enough marginals to hold government.
You can bet that households that are feeling economic pressure – from mortgage and credit card stress and general cost-of-living pressures – will be likely to exhibit similar preferences as households in safe Labor seats. That is, these voters are more likely to be among those that have made the switch from Howard to Rudd and their preferences and behaviour at this election are likely to resemble the the preferences and behaviour of voters in safe Labor seats.
In these seats, Howard has to try to induce about 7.5% of total voters to return to his column. This is 7 or 8 voters out of the 50 or so that now intend to vote Labor. He has to shake loose about 15% of Labor’s vote just to break even. This is a lot of votes to move in a short period and is against a backdrop of quite stable suport for Rudd/Labor.
Howard has to do this even though he has a negative net satisfaction rating while Rudd has a high net positive rating. This points to the obvious avenue of attack for the coalition – a total ssault on Kevin Rudd. If they can drag down his approval rating, they can neutralize his advantage and maybe lessen Howard’s relative disadvantage. The politics is going to get very nasty from here on in….
I wish I could vote twice – once for the country and once for pleasure!!!
Reply to Piping shrike 201
What does a conservative party stand for; at the very least nothing more than the status quo; as pushing the status quo requires no change you could mistake that for nothing.
If you really want to be an extreme conservative you could go for Anti Abortion, Anti Gay, Anti Aboriginal, Anti Muslem, take the kids of the drug addicts, religion back into schools etc and so on ( we have heard mumbles on all these). None of it vote winning policy in Australia.
They stand for something, the trouble is it something the average Australia is not interested in; and if that is the case you have to be quite about it if you want to win the election, so your back at nothing.
Charles, I hope you are right. I haven’t lost hope, more have been trying to think through the possible ramifications of such scenarios on what is a changed demographic.
Charles: I see that the conservatives never have a positive agenda, but a negative one. The Liberals were formed in 1944 to be anti-union and anti-socialist. Both of those are not issues any more so they have nothing really to be against. There was an anti-terrorist agenda for a while but that is now losing its power (look at their difficulty they had in using the antiterrorism laws with Haneef). The lack of something to be against is how I see their problem. They are not for the status quo necessarily, they will roll back union power or state spending if they want to.
Adem said
“Actually once the Depression got serious Australia turned AGAINST Labor, at least federal Labor”.
Yes, he was hard labor supporter; Labor did come into power in the middle of the 2nd world war; if my recollection of history is correct they brought the troupes home to defend Australia.
“Being anti-union is not an issue any more”????? Shrike, have you listened to Howard, Costello and Hockey this year?? Being anti-union is all they talk about. Hatred of the unions is the single most powerful motivator of conservative politics in Australia, in fact just about the only powerful motivator. I don’t know what planet you are living on but it obviously doesn’t have access to Australian media.
Yes charles, they did indeed bring the troupes home. We needed our actors, dancers and acrobats right here in Australia.
Geez, Kina at 205. Some of us have absolutely no pretentions, really, truly, but are interested, really, truly. Is it O.K. to put forward an idea about what’s happening or may happen? Like bad economic times, war, what effect might that have, how might it play out in the current scenario?
Yes Adam and do you think that the Liberals anti-union line has resonance these days outside their core small-business supporters? Even they don’t think unions are a problem. Get real.
@ 188 Antony Green Says:
Fair point Antony.
Thanks to you and your team for building such a beautiful tool/toy.
Have you considered reclaiming some of the unused pixels at the blue end of the slider? A swing range of -5 to 15 would seem to cover all the possible results.
(There’s scope here for a one-liner about online politics being the web-design of the possible.)
Chris, there’s a less sophisticated slider at http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/election-calculator/ which goes all the way to 60/40 TPP. You might find that satisfying.
Shrike, I’d hate to conclude that you are an idiot, but you leave me little choice when you seem to be unable to grasp the simplest propositions made by other people. But rather than come to such an uncharitable conclusion and incur the righteous wrath of William, I am going to bed.
213 The Piping Shrike Says:
“they will roll back union power or state spending if they want to.”
The biggest Union power rollback was achieved by Hawke, the biggest taxing government is Howards. They are just the words.
I wonder if a better way of looking at it is the political elite and the non elite, and all we have now is different branches of the political elite.
If you take that path, power is the game and we a voting Howard out for misuses of power, or as one witty poster put it politicians are like nappies and you have to change them regularly for the same reason.
All parties have declining membership so really can any of them claim to represent a core group.
Monica Lynagh aka Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs:
I was actually having a go at someone else [unamed] for poo pooing everyone for the idea that the polls can stay the same. My contention is that if they reckon the polls will narrow then don’t talk down in a dissmissive offhand tone – give reasons instead. I was trying to avoid a personal argument.
202
Neil Says:
” There won’t be an interest rate rise in November. The recent cuts to interest rates in the US put paid to that. The $A is soaring against the $US and the cross currencies. Imports are getting significantly cheaper, putting downward pressure on inflation”.
Neil, you can not say with any certainty that there will not be an interest rate rise in November. Any opinion on the impact of the global economy on our interest rates is speculative at best unless you have an exclusive crystal ball you are not telling us about.
In fact, the RBA Chair made noises indicating exactly the opposite of what you are suggesting may be possible earlier this week. Are you suggesting you have a better understanding of the global economy than the RBA ?
If I were JWH I would sit on my hands for a week, get a better [closer] sense of whether or not the RBA will be at high risk of raising mortgage interest rates in November, then make a decision on either Nov 3 or Nov 10.
If there is a high risk of an increase, I would go for the earlier date to get it done and dusted before the RBA Board meet. More importantly, I have invested $100 on a Nov 3 election, so he better call the damn thing soon.
charles: I agree with a lot of what you say. It was Labor who carried out the biggest roll-back on the unions unlike the role the conservatives played in US and UK. This is Howard’s problem, Labor did all his work for him, so when he came to power, there was nothing to do.
I also think on what you say there is a strong anti-politician element to this campaign that Rudd has exploited well.
Adam, I think a lie down is a good idea. Try and avoid personal abuse please.
#194 paul k
“I’m supporting Rudd but as I’ve said before it getting very tiresome hearing about what a supposedly huge margin Labor is going to win by. The real battle hasn’t even began yet.”
Rudd’s advantage in the polls has been solid right through, and IMO Rudd/Gillard will slaughter Howard/Costello in a f2f debate without a gutless Speaker to protect them. I don’t see either Abbott or Downer being other than cannon fodder in that company.
Further, Labor has enough ammunition to hammer the Libs who are a bit short in the pocket when they have to finance their own campaign.
Why do you think ‘the real battle’ will favour Howard?
Adem wrote:
“Costello and Hockey this year?? Being anti-union is all they talk about. Hatred of the unions is the single most powerful motivator of conservative politics in Australia”
I think they are really focused on there core voters.
They have also tried to ignite the abortion debate in Australia, that was done and dusted so long ago I can’t even remember the decade.
“I’m supporting Rudd but as I’ve said before it getting very tiresome hearing about what a supposedly huge margin Labor is going to win by. The real battle hasn’t even began yet.â€
ho_hum @ 225 – I agree with you.
The statement “..as I’ve said before it getting very tiresome ..” talks down to everyone and is dissmissive, then fails to give reasons for it. AND even if they have reasons you simply don’t talk to people like that -well not in my office and house they don’t and get to stay very long.
No one knows what is going to happen – there are reasons there could be a fall and reasons for things staying the same and reasons why the vote can increase. Frankly we wont know until we have hindsight and that will be when we see the types of campaigns run.
Charles I believe I saw a poll not that long ago that said 80% or so of people recognised that unions had a role to play.
Neil @ 202
You might want to reveiw your prediction of no interest rate rise after you read this article.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22460285-643,00.html
O.K. Kina at 222. Sorry, got it wrong. It is an interesting point you’ve made which I’ve noted before.
Morgan is running their nonsense of soft voters. Gee even I say the country is heading in the right direction but Im not relating it to politics. When most people have jobs and roof over their heads and they think they will have a job tomorrow they might agree with me too.
Soft ALP Voters: Who Are They?
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4213/
The Newspoll data on soft voters is a total different story to Morgan’s the also asked the question more directly.
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/0905%20Fed%20VI%20Committment%20and%20Leaders.pdf
Kina: I think Morgan is making a completely false assumption here. They are assuming that if the voter thinks the country is reading in the right direction then there is a possibility they will vote for the coalition. But that assumes the voters are giving the government credit for it. What I think has emerged from this year is that voters think governments have much less control over the economy these days. I thought Keating put his finger on it in that Lateline interview.
Oh my, Bluebottle. Part of what I was banging on about earlier in this thread.
Actually because things are heading in the right direction people feel more safe in changing parties. So their reasoning I don’t think is intuitive.
I think Morgan is just doing a more sophisticated version of what Galaxy and Newspoll CEO’s have been doing with their poll findings, dismissing their organisations’ own findings that Labor’s lead could be so large.
The real battle hasn’t even began yet.
paul k, 194
To the contrary. There is a very serious and increasing possibility that the real battle is largely over, and that current voter sentiment, as the polls show it, is more or less how it will turn out. I am not predicting it, but I would not be surprised to see a 54% 2pp for Labor, and 100 + seats.
And there may be very little, if anything, the government can now do about it. The fact that it has never happened before doesn’t prove it won’t.
“and 100 + seats”
Sorry, that should be 90 + seats.
This concept of “the country moving in the right direction” might be an interesting one to explore. I first heard it in relation to US politics.
In Australia, there is a long long tradition of people voting wth their hip-pockets. In this regard, it is certainly possible for people to feel that their own circumstances could be better even though the country in general seems to be going ok.
For example, the official cpi take on inflation is not too bad and the official unemployment rate sertainly looks good. Likewise, the government accounts are strong. You could say, on the face of it, these things mean the “country” is going ok.
But at the same time, you could be in a family (like mine) where we have to work long hours, have our share of debts (and the anxiety that goes with them) and whose cost-of-living has been risong at least as fast as our income.
So there is no necessary connection between how the (nebulous) country is going and how the (very immediate) family living is going.
I think Morgan’s concept must have very limited value as a predictor of voter sentiment and behaviour in an economy where people’s fortunes are not all on the same linear pathway…
Just Me,
Yes the battle is over. This election is Rudd V Costello. Costello made many barely reported gaffes this week, including a few more about tax than the “best treasurer ever” should make. The only largely reported gaffe was in usurping Howard about the election date.
Will Costello beat Rudd? I doubt Costello can beat anyone.
Insight into how Howard will campaign – no real surprises.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22451516-27197,00.html
Howard & Co will do everything they can to undermine the character of Rudd but in the fast pace of an election campaign they will avoid being held to common standards of evidence. So as usual, in the American Republican style, they will simply invent facts and events, lies, half-truths, cast doubt and suspiscion on anything and everything in Rudd’s history. They will go the 100% filth path to ruin Rudd’s image.
However this tactic won’t be effective unless they have the support and complicity of the media. It depends how the smear is reported and the context it is put.
BUT the media have to face a risk in aiding Howard’s smear and election campaign – Labor voters also buy papers and buy the things advertised in the papers. The Murdoch press for example [if they made themselves Labor partisans] risk losing a great many readers who are Labor supporters as their personal protest. I know I have already stopped buying papers of one publishing group.
For example if the Murdoch press lose 10% of their Labor readers then that will be a significant drop in profits and some of these journalists may be looking for other jobs.
It is getting annoying that some of these journalists can simply print their partisan Liberal PR and publish it as opinion or news. It is high time that people began to personally confront these people in thier offices – to let them feel they are being held accountable for trying to ruin the democratic process of fair and free elelctions. rant rant rant….
I must admit I think fears the Liberals will go personal on Rudd may be a bit over-blown. I think they have very limited room to go personal. Even on pretty mild claims over Rudd’s heart surgery (something Rudd himself has alluded to) the government became very defensive on their role in it. In fact I think Labor has got a lot of mileage out of this ‘smear unit’ which has come out with … what? The stuff about Rein’s business and his brother’s political donations both seemed to come from the Labor side.
I also think it doesn’t do that much for the Liberals core voters, which I think will be the main target of their campaign.
Here is a good idea:
Make the partisan media pay – dont know if it would be effective, only if it gew into a movement I gues.
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?pid=10768#p10768
[FEDERAL Labor leader Kevin Rudd is reportedly poised to reverse his party’s long-held opposition to the Medicare safety net.
Deputy leader Julia Gillard has previously attacked the scheme as a “sham” because of its disproportionate use by people living in Australia’s most affluent suburbs.
Party figures continue to believe the scheme is inequitable but they add it is the result of the lack of access to Medicare-funded care in outer urban, rural and remote areas, Fairfax newspapers reported today.
Mr Rudd will today outline his support for the safety net as part of a $220-million “super clinics” policy in which Labor will pledge to put GPs, specialists and other health professionals, such as physiotherapists, in targeted areas. ]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22461783-5005361,00.html
Check out old photos of Rudd – he had a mo.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/
FORMER US vice-president Al Gore last night offered his strongest endorsement yet of Labor’s climate change credentials when he backed the work of Peter Garrett.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22461515-662,00.html
I don’t wish to buy into the debate on the relative weight of the various factors impacting on the Government’s vote. However, I do think the collection of elements – e.g. Work Choices, the (now obvious) folly of Iraq compared to 2004, anger about interest rate increases, the perception of the unequally-shared benefits of the economic boom, the inadequacy of funding for education (now evident from efforts to do something about it), climate change and the inadequacy and belated Government response – threaten to constitute a perfect storm. I also think that the equine influenza problem will cause them some strife, irrespective of whether the Commonwealth Government is primarily or significantly responsible , (I sense that it’s going to be blamed anyway). The interesting element of this issue is that there are a large number of people affected, from the horse racing and breeding industries (and gambling), through to hobby equestrian enthusiasts. I’d suggest that these people are predominantly conservative politically, but their casual interests and/or livelihood is now severely threatened, which is just another knife to twist into the Government.
Of course, in a future hypothetical election setting, the boot would be on the other foot, with a prospective Labor Government being blamed for any- and every-thing which goes wrong.
I’ve also done some back of the envelope calculations to see whether Labor supporters’ pessimism, evident at some points in this thread, is justified.
A 4% recovery by the Government from the current three month Newspoll averages by States, would on a uniform swing give 19 seats to Labor (assuming 2 in Tasmania and Solomon). Barring some remarkable event, it’s difficult to see where anything in the order of 4% might come from. 3% clawback would see 23 seats change hands on a uniform swing, and of course, lesser improvements in 2PP in favour of the Government would see extra seats lost. That’s why I’m at a loss to see the mathematical justification for thinking the Government will scrape back in. To anticipate the objection that the swing won’t be uniform, the evidence is that the swings are greatest in Government safe seats – putting those with 6%+ margins at risk, and least in safe Labor seats. So the spectre of 1998, big swings in the wrong places seems unlikely to occur.
Podcast of Yesterday’s House of Rep’s Question Time for those who want a permanent record 🙂
http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/audio/mp3/20070920questionreps.mp3