Morgan’s now-weekly face-to-face poll, from a sample of 844, shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 59-41 to 56.5-43.5. The Coalition’s primary vote is up from 36 per cent to 39.5 per cent, and Labor’s down from 51 per cent to 49.5 per cent.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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Shrike,
By completely disregarding WorkChoices as an issue – the issue – at the upcoming federal election, you have demonstrated – in much the same way as the vast majority of MSM journalists – that you are long-divorced from the realms of the day-to-day realities facing working families who inhabit the demographic otherwise known as “Struggle Streetâ€.
Howard brazenly overstepped the mark, and will be duly penalised for doing so.
Labor’s position on IR has been designed to both placate business groups and to demonstrate that they are not beholden to union bosses: smart thinking on their part, IMHO.
Yes, Arbie Jay, they have these ads over in SA as well.
I agree that it seems a stupid way to approach the argument. He is, as you say, admitting that nurses (like any other employee, presumably) are best protected by the excesses of Workchoices by either remaining on State awards or by having collective (ie union) negotiated agreements.
Hardly a way to inspire confidence in your policy piece de resistance, I woudln’t have thought.
PS pardon my French – literally. My schoolgirl language was German 🙂
Coalition will win by 8 seats.
Adam, was there an explanation by your source why Labor won’t win Wentworth despite the 2.5% margin? Is it b/c it’s Turnbull’s seat?
OT but I am checking updates and new posts here at each 1/4 time break. Watching the footy tonight. We are up here in NSW though and get the footy on delay. For us, it didn’t start until 8:30pm.
PLEASE NO spoilers from the Collingwood and Geelong folks until at least midnight, game ought to be over by then (for the poor folks watching in NSW).
Thanks folks :):):)
“Hockey had a full page ad in the Daily Telegraph where he assured nurses that their wages and conditions are safe because:”
The Govt think that if the call ‘black’ ‘white’ then that makes it truth.
Labor has WorkChoices 1 and WorkChoice 2 to run – and especially the way the Govt hides its intentions until after the election. They real trust issues.
I shouldn’t type while I’m watching the footy.
Re Envy #149
National Party’s biggest donors include Phillip Morris, British American Tobacco and the Liberal Party. The ethics trifecta.
I know what you mean, Kina. I’m watching telly, typing and talking to my daughter at the same time. But that’s a female brain for you 🙂
Id just like to note that pre-electoral caution is wise, but also boring. Put yer money on the line, I says.
Viz, Rodent is stuffed! I love these latest polls – keeps the dead man walking.
Fagin you do not own the monopoly on “Struggle Streetâ€. Your deep knowledge of that street will presumably make you aware of the disillusionment it has had with Labor over the years. I am not saying Workchoices is a non-issue, but not a major reason for Labor’s lead and certainly not the “one thing that decides this election†as you claim. Actually I can find you a few MSM journos who think IR is critical as well.
The reality is that this is not an objective discussion on what factors influence electoral voting, this is just about the Labor party.
“I thought others were exaggerating when they suggested that Downer might actually lose his seat”
If only this were true!!
But I doubt it. For one thing the Lab candidate has been about as visible as a black cat down a coal mine 🙁
Shrike, Labor did not lose and never has lost its “heartland.” Labor’s heartland is seats like Grayndler, Blaxland, Fowler, Newcastle, Melbourne, Wills, Batman, Port Adelaide and Fremantle. What Labor lost was a particular section of the upper working class in the outer suburbs and the provincial towns, who voted against their own economic self-interest over “hot button” social issues like immigration, Aborigines, gay rights etc etc, which were skillfully exploited by Howard in 1996 and again in 2001. That’s why Labor lost seats like Hughes, Lindsay, Dobell, Herbert, McMillan, Makin, Bass etc. What WorkChoices has done is to remind most of these people that basic economics – how much money they earn for how much work – is more important than any of the superficial wedge issues the Libs have used to con them over the past decade.
China
Hockey’s ads drive home the point that if you are a vulnerable worker then you are vulnerable to Work Choices, ie you are screwed.
By the way Hockey is a big chance to lose his seat and it is not mainly due to Work Choices. Bailey is doing an old style door knock campaign and he says the major issue is climate change, something that Bailey as a meterologist would be well able to talk on. Hockey has not been able to spend much time in the electorate, his time taken up dishing the dirt on Rudd and trying to sell Work Choices.
As for climate change and the drought, Howard says the prayers didn’t work earlier in the year whilst MsGauran remains optimistic the drought will break.
Piping Shrike I think you wrong.
I have become very rude when I meet someone; I ask two questions; who you going to vote for and if they tell me I then ask why?
Something big is happening and I want to understand it ( the reason why I read all these posts).
The answers are varied but they tend to come back to the war, or one of Howard’s wedges. Workchoices is the most common wedge mentioned. It is not Rudd’s policy that matters it is what Howard attempted to do.
However I don’t think labor have to advertise worchoices, business is doing it for them ( rubbing our noses in it was how one of my victims put it).
Met a person today that changed her vote from Liberal to Labor last week. Could not stand Howard and Bushes behavior. So yes it is not only work choices.
It is my view, the polls are right, there is something big happening. I am not a long term Labor supporter so I don’t have to do any hand wringing, or worry about past party failures.
Piping Shrike (133)
Maybe I missed it, but after reading that post I didn’t think that the ALP would necessarily have to campaign on WC. I just think that because of WC, the electorate would note vote the coalition back in. It’s that simple fact alone that has me believing it’s over before it began.
Of course in a seat like North Sydney other issues are at work. The Libs are suffering from what I rather indelicately call the Bangkok syndrome – they are being screwed at both ends. They are losing their working class support because of WorkChoices, and their upper middle class vote is eroding because of issues like climate change, refugees, Iraq etc. They thus have to fight on two fronts, and the more crudely they try to exploit wedge social issues to shore up their working class vote, the more they alienate their base in the wealthy urban seats.
Bill
Hi again! Your quote:
“When things get closer and they will, the Greens preferences will decide the election and that is still up in the air atm”
is interesting and, I think, fairly untrue for this election.
1. Labor polling is up and (at the moment) stable. I admit there is still a high degree of softness but they do not need the Greens like they did in 2004.
2. Greens polling is low. Really low. Lower than it was prior to 2004 and very stable around 4-6%, well shy of the 10% often quoted in the media (in fact, I believe there has been a single Newspoll over 10 since 2004 and an average, including this possibly aberrant poll of about 5.8 since 2004). Recent showing in Albert Park, Victoria was, you would agree high, encouraging and not at all indicative. Greens have excellent support in this Urban Melbourne electorate. Generally, they are doing poorly at present.
3. Greens don’t follow HTVs, as a rule. They are the least reliable when preference deals are done.
So a lower showing, with a high Labor vote (not even counting the likely F1 preferencing) and Greens not following HTVs makes them more irrelevant than last time.
I will give you that the collapse of the Dems will see a steady bleed across to Green, as I suspect it did markedly in 2004. This election we will see a more clear picture, with probably a reduced Green primary.
Greens need Labor more than Labor needs Greens.
This election will be fought around the middle, politically and in the 25-40 year age block. I’ll take wagers on that.
Those who are debating whether to watch the AFL later or do something else should definitely stay in – the game is a ripper.
Adam
Re Wentworth, wouldn’t Naiins chief of staff comments about Nazi’s have put a few of Turnballs constituents offside and made him a bit more vulneralbe in that seat?
Charles I absolutely agree the polls are right. In fact the thing that has driven me mad over the year is the way they have been dismissed on the left and right as unfeasible. I think what we are seeing is a major realignment in Australian politics. In my view it is a delayed reaction (suspended by the War on Terror) to the end of the historical roles of the major parties. A key part of that historical role was being for/against the unions. That is why I think the argument that Workchoices is the key factor is so severely missing the point and turns reality on its head.
Adam your argument that the upper working class is less enlightened on immigration, Aborigines, gay rights etc etc is a familiar (and unproven) prejudice over sections of the working class that are unfortunately most strongly held by people who are supposed to represent them. You seem to not remember what happened in the late 1980s when core Labor supporters swung against Labor for the simple reason they got screwed by them.
OK, Shrike, you go on believing that, suits me fine.
Hockey’s message about union bosses is not working because the IR debate is not seen as being about the unions but about wages, conditions and job security. Seen in that light IR is very much an economic issue as well. Hence the venom towards these laws and hence the backlash that is coming the government’s way.
RBJ, yes it is possible that Jewish voters in Wentworth will not take well to Phelps’s comments and Nairn and Howard’s feeble response. However Turnbull has been assiduously courting the Jewish community – apparently he has almost taught himself Yiddish – and given their wealth and conservatism I doubt many of them will desert him. Newhouse being Jewish is worth some votes but I gather not as many as was hoped. He has a high profile but not exactly one to recommend him to wealthy conservative people. Danby is rather better at courting conservative Jewish voters and even he doesn’t actually carry the Caulfield booths, although he does better there than anyone else would – and by all accounts Wentworth Jews are more conservative than Melbourne Ports Jews.
The Piping Shrike writes:
“A reason why they did was the way Hawke/Keating nobbled the unions”
Yes the unions were ( and in my view had to be) nobbled but not destroyed. The unions are our security blanket, a security blanket that would have died through neglect, but that wasn’t good enough for Howard he wanted it destroyed. Workchoice gave the unions a reason to exist, a reason to fight and those that wanted the security blanket a reason to worry about it being burnt.
If I was a right wing extremist I would be pissed off by the complete ineptitude displayed in bringing life back into the union movement.
Piping Shrike also wrote: “and imposed the burden of the financial deregulation on their core supporters.”
I don’t see this, financial deregulation made money cheaper and available ( housing boom, with the bust still to come).
on lateline…..hahahaha…..howard asks the kids what school they come from and they answer “st kevins’
[on lateline…..hahahaha…..howard asks the kids what school they come from and they answer “st kevins’]
Oh dear, what a coincidence- I’ll bet Howard would’ve gone apeshit at his advisers to make sure they vet the schools who take part in these launches more carefully.
And finally – if anyone really loves William and his bandwidth, they would use a browser like Opera where the graphics can be turned off with a push of a button (so you either use only text or the graphics in your browsers cache whenever you reload the page to catch the latest juicy comments).
Possum Comitatus 80
Works in Safari, the Apple browser. (Go to Safari Preferences > Appearance, and uncheck ‘Display images when the page opens’).
Adam, thank you for the inside info from Labor. Very interesting!
A few people have mentioned McPherson as a seat to watch.
I put today’s state by state newspoll figures in Antony Green’s calculator and came up with more than 100 seats for Rudd.
OK, this won’t be the real election result.
My realistic most optimistic prediction is a Labor majority of 10.
Charles, I think the unions fatally compromised themselves with their role with the Labor government years and this underpins their decline in membership. Howard’s Workchoices was unnecessary. Even employers didn’t need it, which is why AWA take up has been so low. It was also gratuitous as it only rubbed the unions face in their decline. The only reason Howard did it was to cover up a profound policy vacuum, which in my view is the real reason they are on their way out, big time.
Howard is on Lateline? It is not on here yet.
Is it worth watching?
I hate watching him on TV unless he is begging or whinging.
or crying.
HH, it’s not “inside info” – if I had any inside info I certainly wouldn’t be posting it here. It’s only the opinions of Labor MPs, who are certainly well informed, but who may also be too close to the cause to be objective. On the whole I think they are right, but there’s nothing in their observations that many commenters here haven’t also said.
Thanks for the correction Adam!
I heard on radio earlier one political commentator suggesting the election will be called for either November 17 or November 24.
Another big issue besides Work Choices is housing affordability,
Howard had given up on this saying there is no crisis as house prices remain high.
The libs also blame people for having too high an expectation, wanting a fully furnished mansion when they should be satisifed with milk crates as furniture. I agree with the furniture bit, my dad told me he and my mum had boxes and crates as their first bit of furniture but nowadays the big problem is that people cannot even afford an unfurnished, uncarpeted, no curtains house and are having trouble paying the rent.
The Australian dream of owning your own home has been destroyed for may and the wage reductions inherent in Work Choices make it harder again.
It appears the usual response to a problem that the libs have no plans for, blame the voters, same as with the rising private debt, it is all diue to people buying plasma TVs.
HH
Maybe Oct 27, too long after this and Howard risks a second rate Melbourne Cup or no Cup at all because of the Equine Flu.
Never underestimate the wrath of the POPs (pissed off punters).
There are a lot of ways Labor can play the WorkChoice campaign.
One powerful one is for anyone with loans or wanting to by houses. Housing affordability becomes even less when WC reduces your overtime, penalities and wages, especially anyone with kids. Creating fear of the impending WC spread for those who are not on it yet.
I think a rate rise is a danger for Howard. The last one worked against him, he lost the argument with Labor. Another one helps to damage their economic credentials as being a little fake.
Adam (119) In my defense I did say that past results were not predictive, just suggestive of future trends. I won’t go into all of the pro and con arguments (it would take pages), but think that the current climate ultimately suggests a 55% TPP for the ALP on election day is extremely unlikely… though never say never.
Shrike. I’ve liked your posts generally. To nitpick though, I don’t think we’re seeing a major realignment in historical roles – rather a gradual change that has and is taking some time. The end of the USSR took the heat out of the class warfare aspect of the debate, but the underlying issues of distribution of wealth, general issues of equality, etc, will always be with us. The ALP positions itself as egalitarian while the coalition positions itself as pragmatic – pretty similar to any two party system around the globe. Of course there’s lots of local colour to make it all seem very different. Personally I think workchoices won’t be run heavily by the ALP, but will certainly get a big run from the ACTU in close collaboration with the ALP. And I think it is a big (if not key) issue for the electorate.
The polls have shown Labor ahead over the last three months from 10% to 20% TPP yet Antony Greens swing o’meter only show 10%. What if they start coming in at 12 – 15% again?
Chris B, if it gets to 12 or 15%, try printing the pendulum out and counting them yourself. When designing a web page, you’ve got to make a trade-off on a slider which is long enough to be controlible but without getting in the way of the rest of the page. Without consulting my books, I don’t think we’ve ever seen a 10% swing at a general election. I see no reason to cater for a possibility which has never previously occurred, but anyone who wishes to try and produce a predictive tool to cater for swings that have never occurred is most welcome to go to that effort.
The reason many think the election result can’t be as high as 55/45 seems to be because it seems too high. But I don’t think anybody has a reason why it shouldn’t go up or stay the same except to say Howard will win the election campaign and narrow the margin.
I’m not saying that the gap won’t shrink but I would like a logical reasons for why.
I might add that Howard has continually stuffed up this year.
Baz, I agree there have been no real changes recently, it has been a gradual process, but I think things have been suspended since 9/11 and are now coming unfrozen and moving fast. Actually before then Howard had a similar problem to the one he has now, that’s why I think he brought in GST in his first term, to fill a vacuum. Even though the realignment has not yet been evident federally, I do think the states show we are now in a different ballgame.
The ACTU runs ads to show the ALP it was them what won it. I just cannot see the evidence from any polls that it is true. But I am open to evidence!
Possum – if you’re still about, I don’t believe you need a Firefox plugin to prevent loading of images. Simply put in PollBludget as an exception to automatic loading – go to Preferences -> Content, and next to the checkbox for automatic loading there’s a button for entering exceptions 😉
#117 Baz. Here is one reason Labor is going to win big. This will be targeting Liberal seats in each state. Most of the seats are strong Liberal seats. Already one Liberal has said it scares little old ladies. I think it will scare one little old man. Guess who?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSAKIjna-bA
Reply to 169 Piping Shrike
I agree that the traditional roles of the parties has changed. In my view the Liberals have become the conservative party and the Labor party has become the liberal party; I think it is easy to argue Keating ran the best liberal government we have had in decades. It would save a lot of confusion if they all just changed their names to reflect their politics.
You just might be right, since Howard first got in there has been a slow swing to Labor and then a Jump to Rudd perhaps because people believe Rudd will run another decent liberal government. Lathem was too much into class politics. Beazley was a nice bloke, but was he a man to run a country.
The question is however, what pushed people over the line, what made people say enough of this conservative nonsense, I’m going to take another look at the liberal, sorry Labor party.
For me it was children overboard (you just don’t treat fellow human beings like that), for my wife it was the iraq war, I think for a lot of voters it was workchoices.
That I think is the issues what pushed people over the line?
Why should Anthony Green have to cater to theories about wild swings?
Professionals work at winning elections by what ever margin is possible. A majority, any majority is still a majority.
Amateurs talk about landslides and wiping out the competition.
I’m supporting Rudd but as I’ve said before it getting very tiresome hearing about what a supposedly huge margin Labor is going to win by. The real battle hasn’t even began yet.
Thank you very much, Ruawake, Julie, Possum and Envy for your responses. Very informative. However, I still would pose the question about the effect of a very nasty economic thing, U.S. stock market taking a nose dive, recession, over October, on voting behaviour in the Oz election. And I think we can forget about the war on terrorism, the war about water has already begun.
Thanks Anthony. But my thought is that if the polls are right there will be a lot of people in shock!
Antony, in 1931 the Labor vote (including Lang Labor) fell 11.9% and the UAP + Country Party vote rose 9.2%. That would probably translate into a 2-party swing of about 10%.