| ALBERT PARK | RAW | ADJUSTED | ||
| Vote | Swing | Vote | 2PP | |
| Martin Foley (Labor) | 47.3 | 5.1 | 46.1 | 59.0 |
| John Middleton (Greens) | 27.8 | 9.1 | 28.2 | 41.0 |
| Cameron Eastman (Family First) | 4.8 | 3.8 | ||
| Adrian Jackson (Independent) | 1.0 | -0.2 | ||
| Shane McCarthy (DLP) | 1.8 | |||
| Paul Kavanagh (Democrats) | 4.7 | |||
| Prodos Marinakis (Independent) | 5.4 | |||
| John Dobinson (Independent) | 0.8 | |||
| Nigel Strauss (Independent) | 6.5 | COUNT | 78 % | |
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9.55pm. Long-delayed final two-party booth for Albert Park now in, Labor’s 2PP on 57.7 per cent.
9.12pm. Postal votes now added.
8.49pm. Turnout in Albert Park not too bad: 25,669 polling booth votes cast (including informal) compared with 26,804 last year.
8.44pm. Two-party count for all booths in Williamstown has Labor on 64.6 per cent.
8.42pm. Informal vote a rather high 7 per cent in each electorate.
8.39pm. We’ve also got a two-party count from five booths in Albert Park, with Labor on 59.05 per cent, suggesting my preference calculations did their job.
8.38pm. Labor’s vote has also continued to edge upwards in Williamstown.
8.37pm. All booths now in for Albert Park, producing a slight narrowing the margin, but still a clear win for Labor.
8.25pm. Bridport and St Kilda Park booths now in, producing little change.
8.20pm. Now we’re talking. Confusing the two St Kilda booths actually flattered the Greens slightly, not Labor.
8.19pm. Actually, scratch that – there’s something screwy with my new calculations. Working on it. Labor should be doing better than they are.
8.16pm. I was actually comparing the wrong St Kilda booths just now. The correction has made the result a little closer.
8.10pm. A big burst of figures in from Williamstown, lifting the count from 37 per cent to 60 per cent. This has pushed Labor’s vote up to a handsome 56.5 per cent. It’s starting to look like a pretty good night for John Brumby.
8.07pm. St Kilda South now in, but it doesn’t quite bear out what I said in the previous comment. Greens up a fairly typical 8.8 per cent, producing only a slight narrowing of the two-party vote.
8.01pm. The Greens picked up a handy 13.4 per cent in Middle Park, which is nearest the St Kilda booths that are still yet to come. If that’s indicative of a trend in the south of the electorate, the Greens could at least be confident of closing the gap a little.
7.55pm. The new booth results are from Middle Park Bowling Club (weak for Labor), Elwood Park and Sol Green Community Centre (about average for Labor). There’s also a new booth in from Williamstown which has produced little change.
7.50pm. Three more booths in at Albert Park, and Labor looking good.
7.44pm. Actually, the 40 per cent mark is probably not that dangerous in the context of this election. Their vote in 2006 was 41.0 per cent. I’m reasonably confident about my 2PP figure in the above table (unless the result in this booth is aberrant).
7.41pm. More than 30 per cent counted in Williamstown and Labor comfortably over 50 per cent.
7.36pm. The first booth in for Albert is the Sandridge/Fishermens Bend booth, which is Labor’s strongest and the Greens’ weakest. Labor’s primary vote is dangerously close to the 40 per cent mark.
7.33pm. More results in from both seats …
7.33pm. Slowest count ever.
7.12pm. Two booths in from Williamstown, Labor on just over 50 per cent of the primary vote (compared with 62 per cent in 2006).
6.56pm. Looks like my “half an hour” ETA on first results was a little optimstic.
6.15pm. Polls closed for the Albert Park and Williamstown by-elections 15 minutes ago, and we should be getting results in about half an hour. I will keep a lazy eye on Williamstown, but the focus here is Albert Park where the Greens have at least a theoretical chance of recording an upset. The table above will compare available booth results with those from last year’s state election to produce an estimated final result on the primary vote, which will then be converted to two-party preferred on the following basis: 70 per cent to the Greens from the Democrats, Nigel Strauss and Adrian Jackson, 50 per cent from John Dobinson and 30 per cent from the DLP, Family First and Prodos Marinakis (all of whom are recommending the Greens be put last). Anyone who doubts any of these assessments is invited to raise their voice in comments, and I will consider changing them.
Reading Adam’s last comment made me think yes I’m being harsh on the Greens for they are not a joke, and they are in with a change, if they did win I wonder what the reaction in Spring St would be.
Greeensborough Growler:
How are the Greens close to the Liberals? Evidence please. Dates. Times. Documents. Otherwise give up this cant. And let’s not include the voting record in the upper house because that proves nothing but the Greens have their own mind. Have you looked at how often the ALP Votes with the Liberals in the Vic Parliament?
Labor will need to poll the following percentages in the AP booths in order to get over the 50% line:
Bridport 48.1%
Elwood 46.6%
Elwood North 50.8%
Kerferd South 49.6%
Melbourne Airport 41.5%
Melbourne Town Hall E Centre 46.9%
Middle Park 45.8%
Port Melbourne East 55.1%
Port Melbourne West 55.2%
Sandridge 69.5%
South Melbourne 51.1%
Southbank 47.0%
St Kilda 45.1%
St Kilda Park 48.6%
St Kilda South 48.4%
This is the 50-50 Labor Greens position (I reckon). Labor needs to exceed this to win.
Adam,
The Herald Sun carried an article that the DLP was leafleting accusing FF of being run by the AoG. Look for as many levels of irony as you can in that. I am sure that the type of person who is an activist for FF would have been very anti-Catholic 30 or 40 years ago, but I don’t think religious divides count for much these days, outside a tiny minority. I don’t think a Catholic who shared FF’s views would have any problem voting for them.
I don’t know what difference a Labor candidate being in the SL makes, given that the SL doesn’t seem to make any difference within the ALP.
Handing out in Williamstown today, boy Family First really bring in some interesting people to do their how-to-vote cards.
Although I have to say seeing someone spruiking with ‘The most attractive candidate in the field’ is one I haven’t heard before.
As for Catherine Cumming, she is a very well known local, who is on the Maribyrnong council and runs in just about everything she can. 10% is not uncommon for her. She got about 15% in the state election in the seat of Footscray.
what’s the general significance of the donbkey vote? moght be higher in these bhy elections.
Re Green Leaders http://www.greenyes.org/ this links to the no site.
Did the row over ALP preferencing Adrian Jackson over FF cause much controversy?
Former hack, Elwood and St Kilda aren’t in use at this by-election.
I’m off to watch Dr Who. So what, you say. Well, in tonight’s episode, the Doctor discovers that the UK has a very strange prime minister – the Master. I’m sure the Doctor will see him off. Typical ABC bias!
I think Elwood Booth is in the seat of Brighton and St Kilda maybe in Prahran for the VEC put all of Elwood south of Glen Huntly Rd into Brighton while all of St Kilda East of Barkley St is now in Prahran
Thanks Chris – Melbourne Ports has the lowest proportion of Christians of any federal electorate in Australia, so it’s not very fertile territory for FF or the DLP, but the 30% Liberals have to vote for somebody, although I’m sure of lot of them just didn’t vote. If I lived in Kew and there was a by-election with no Labor candidate, I wouldn’t bother voting.
I’m off to watch the NRL semi but I’ll check back in.
This count is sure slow. “Melb City” Van der Craatz will be fuming.
Thanks will. Where do you think these voters are likely to vote in this election? I can move their votes over in a suitable proportion. Or should I smear their votes across the whole electorate?
They’re two non-labor booths. THat means Labor would win by 1 % or so with these numbers above as voters for these booths would have to vote somewhere. They’re about 7% of the population in the last election.
William what booths are those raw figures from?
Sandridge/Fishermens Bend with informals removed – I think it’s right …
OK I see now. If 56.6 is the final result I will regard that as quite satisfactory for Labor.
Can I guess on those numbers that its Port Melbourne (Sandridge) or maybe Southbank alot of those people work in Business and Brumby is well regarded in Business circles.
So yeah, Labor’s up 0.8 per cent in that booth, so I’m adding 0.8 per cent to their overall total and calculating a 2PP estimate from there.
That is a good result for the ALP its a booth that as always been ALP but is slowly changing with the large Tower developments, I think this is the ALP’s strongest booth in the seat of Albert Park
wow haven’t been to this site in ages – good reporting again will – even though its just early stages tonight – I admit it’s a pity only you’re reporting it with much enthusiasm… considering the ABC site didn’t put up the notice for the by-elections. [Then again these probably aren’t as fascinating as the Triple M byelections of NSW past or Gaven et al. in Qld past.] Just out of curiousity – does anyone know when the byelection will be for Brisbane Central in Qld replacing Peter Beattie? Should be interesting to see the date on that one re: the timing of the Fed Election. That might be another seat to watch with Greens improving on their vote in the 2006 Qld State Election in most Brisbane seats compared to 2004. Perhaps they have a chance up north too?
On a slight aside… went to Qld recently [july] and saw billboards out west [toowoomba and district way] with Family First party promoting their candidates for the Senate. And the website was something along the lines of ‘a good bloke’ .com or something like that. Pity they snatched it before John Howard could.
Labor was meant to get 69.5% in sandridge but got 73%
Extapolating out, Labor may win with 53.5% of the vote. As Antony Green says though, one booth does not make an election.
To Former Hack,
Anthony is right, I will add that Sandridge/Fishermans’ Bend is the ALP strongest booth, I think had the ALP vote really dropped there then game on!, even when the Liberals are around its a very safe ALP booth.
Labor on 57% adjusted 2PP after allowing for previous election results as above. Greens not doing better than expected in any booth. I am calling it, after 4 booths, that LABOR HAS WON THE ALBERT PARK BYELECTION…
Greens would need to blitz the southern end of the electorate to even get close now, and I don’t think its going to happen.
In Williamstown Janet Rice is doing ok for the Greens but still won’t get close
I’m enjoying this and I’m in NSW! It’s a nice little mouth watering entrée – sans Libs/Nats – for the fast approaching main course.
Two booths from Port Melbourne, 1 Booth from Middle Park and 1 Booth from Ellwood with the ALP on 52% compared to Greens 28% surprisingly clear cut.
My pre-poll prediction was 35-40% Labor, 30-35% Greens, so if this is the result I consider it good for Labor and poor for the Greens. Of course both the Labor and Green % are being inflated by Liberals not voting ior voting informal.
Fagin… i agree I’m from NSW and it’s interesting to watch – what will be interesting to watch re: Libs/Nats is the three way contest produced by a new seat around the city of Gladstone [mid-north Qld coast]. Shall be interesting to see how the coalition works around that one, especially at the Qld state level given their ferocity towards each other.
It looks like another easy Labor replacement again… same routine and success they produced in NSW and QLD. I was really holding out for another 2002 Green upset. [re: cunningham byelection] But with changing demographics – one could – in a few years say- start refering to a Lab/Grn coalition – at least at the state level. If the right circumstances happen in Tas 2010 … it could be one interesting government to watch.
I can assure you there will be no Labor-Green coalition in Victoria. And after the debacle of the Field government few people in politics hate each other more than Tas Labor hate the Greens and vice versa.
Wm the Greens will do best at St Kilda Beach and St Kilda Park IMHO.
true adam – but then again – things can change in politics – it’ll just be interesting to see what happens – and if another ‘accord’ comes out or produces a hung parliament…….. and to one of the above comments- I guess Brumby will be having a good night sleep – wonder where Bracksie is in all this and if he might make an appearance towards the end of the night?
I agree with both of Adam’s last two post.
While this is navel gazing I wonder what will happen when the VEC do the next redirbution for I suspect more of St Kilda will disappear into Prahran, maybe they will re form the old seat of St Kilda that would be an interesting contest.
Back to reality – I’m not that surprised by this result for while this seat is very Liberal minded its becoming more and more like Prahran and Hawthorn, these inner city seats have always had strong third party or person votes but in the wash up will remain with the major parties for many of the people whom work at the top of Govt or deal with it live in these parts.
VEC website is now showing 2PP (ALP-Green) in Albert Park as 59.05/40.95 and Williamstown as 64.23 / 35.77
This is a slow, slow count, but looking good for Labor in Albert Park. Huge win in Williamstown. Please, no spoilers on NRL semi – I’m a Vic, but like my rugby, and will tape it overnight.
What are people’s thoughts on Albert Park for the medium to long-term? With the way its being transformed by Southbank etc, one would assume it would increasingly be populated by more wealthy residents who can afford to love in those apartments, so is it possible it would shift toward the Liberals? Or is it still insufficient to dilute the old industrial and housing commission population you find in those areas?
Labor TPP in Albert Park looking 56.5% from starting point of 52%, swing of 4.5% to Labor.
The LT future for Albert Park is like that of Richmond and Melbourne. It will eventually be a real red-green marginal
Swordfish,
As I understand Albert Park is about if not over quoter, at the last redistribution the seat lost one Elwood and three St Kilda booths, I wouldn’t be surprised if this seat was abolished or had more of the Elwood part removed.
This would make it harder for the Greens, for the Southbank booth is a fast growing and increasingly Liberal booth and the Liberals are quite competitive in Middle park.
I would image it remains an ALP area until their is a major landslide against the them which I don’t see happening anytime soon. the ALP are still very strong around South and Port Melbourne.
While St Kilda only votes Liberal when the Liberals are more liberal.
The LT trend is that rich inner city folk increasingly vote Labor, which is why the Libs are sweating on Wentworth, North Sydney, Ryan, Boothby and maybe even Kooyong if we believe today’s Age.
is there any radio coverage available on the internet?
56% counted in Albert Park, Labor 47.1, Grn 28.2. 2CP 59-41
Well the thing with Kooyong is that Petro is a bludger – I spoke to a Liberal friend who said in 2004 they struggled to do advertising for him because it was a struggle to find anything that could be sold as a local achievement by him.
Last night I was checking out Google earth seat maps and it struck me just how far West Wentworth western boundary is.
Look Kooyong shouldn’t fall but as Swordfish’s Liberal friend said he hasn’t done much, and come polling day I reckon a lot of voters are going to go okay
” Do I vote for Petro for he stood up for Boat people 6 years ago meaning I’m voting for Howard, or do I vote against Howard after all I won’t miss Petro for he has done bugger all, and that Kev bloke seems a nice bloke”
BMW and Swordfish: I’d be making sure that Dr Ken Harvey gives Petro a run for his money. Petro has taken this seat for granted given it’s history. I don’t think it will win, but I do think it will become marginal, which would mean next election it will have the Libs out offering money by the bucket loads.
William how do you get 71% counted at 8.45 when the VEC is only showing 56.6% – do you have a secret source?
Michael, I’ve calculated it by using the vote proportions for each booth from the state election, so all the booths combined accounted for 71 per cent of the total. Whereas they have divided the number of votes cast by total enrolment, so their final total will not add up to 100 per cent.
any idea of the turnout and the informal vote? Both the DLP and FF have polled poorly, so I suspect most Libs have abstained.
Ah I see now. Puzzling. Where have the Libs gone?
The problem for the ALP in Kooyong will be Balwyn the booths around there are very solid I think some may have swung to the Linerals in 04.
I suspect the ALP will win Goldstein before Kooyong, but until election day all we are doing is naval gazing.
Labor TPP in Albert Park now looking 57.5%.
BMW #87
St Kilda hasn’t voted Liberal for nearly 30 years and won’t do so ever again.