| ALBERT PARK | RAW | ADJUSTED | ||
| Vote | Swing | Vote | 2PP | |
| Martin Foley (Labor) | 47.3 | 5.1 | 46.1 | 59.0 |
| John Middleton (Greens) | 27.8 | 9.1 | 28.2 | 41.0 |
| Cameron Eastman (Family First) | 4.8 | 3.8 | ||
| Adrian Jackson (Independent) | 1.0 | -0.2 | ||
| Shane McCarthy (DLP) | 1.8 | |||
| Paul Kavanagh (Democrats) | 4.7 | |||
| Prodos Marinakis (Independent) | 5.4 | |||
| John Dobinson (Independent) | 0.8 | |||
| Nigel Strauss (Independent) | 6.5 | COUNT | 78 % | |
.
9.55pm. Long-delayed final two-party booth for Albert Park now in, Labor’s 2PP on 57.7 per cent.
9.12pm. Postal votes now added.
8.49pm. Turnout in Albert Park not too bad: 25,669 polling booth votes cast (including informal) compared with 26,804 last year.
8.44pm. Two-party count for all booths in Williamstown has Labor on 64.6 per cent.
8.42pm. Informal vote a rather high 7 per cent in each electorate.
8.39pm. We’ve also got a two-party count from five booths in Albert Park, with Labor on 59.05 per cent, suggesting my preference calculations did their job.
8.38pm. Labor’s vote has also continued to edge upwards in Williamstown.
8.37pm. All booths now in for Albert Park, producing a slight narrowing the margin, but still a clear win for Labor.
8.25pm. Bridport and St Kilda Park booths now in, producing little change.
8.20pm. Now we’re talking. Confusing the two St Kilda booths actually flattered the Greens slightly, not Labor.
8.19pm. Actually, scratch that – there’s something screwy with my new calculations. Working on it. Labor should be doing better than they are.
8.16pm. I was actually comparing the wrong St Kilda booths just now. The correction has made the result a little closer.
8.10pm. A big burst of figures in from Williamstown, lifting the count from 37 per cent to 60 per cent. This has pushed Labor’s vote up to a handsome 56.5 per cent. It’s starting to look like a pretty good night for John Brumby.
8.07pm. St Kilda South now in, but it doesn’t quite bear out what I said in the previous comment. Greens up a fairly typical 8.8 per cent, producing only a slight narrowing of the two-party vote.
8.01pm. The Greens picked up a handy 13.4 per cent in Middle Park, which is nearest the St Kilda booths that are still yet to come. If that’s indicative of a trend in the south of the electorate, the Greens could at least be confident of closing the gap a little.
7.55pm. The new booth results are from Middle Park Bowling Club (weak for Labor), Elwood Park and Sol Green Community Centre (about average for Labor). There’s also a new booth in from Williamstown which has produced little change.
7.50pm. Three more booths in at Albert Park, and Labor looking good.
7.44pm. Actually, the 40 per cent mark is probably not that dangerous in the context of this election. Their vote in 2006 was 41.0 per cent. I’m reasonably confident about my 2PP figure in the above table (unless the result in this booth is aberrant).
7.41pm. More than 30 per cent counted in Williamstown and Labor comfortably over 50 per cent.
7.36pm. The first booth in for Albert is the Sandridge/Fishermens Bend booth, which is Labor’s strongest and the Greens’ weakest. Labor’s primary vote is dangerously close to the 40 per cent mark.
7.33pm. More results in from both seats …
7.33pm. Slowest count ever.
7.12pm. Two booths in from Williamstown, Labor on just over 50 per cent of the primary vote (compared with 62 per cent in 2006).
6.56pm. Looks like my “half an hour” ETA on first results was a little optimstic.
6.15pm. Polls closed for the Albert Park and Williamstown by-elections 15 minutes ago, and we should be getting results in about half an hour. I will keep a lazy eye on Williamstown, but the focus here is Albert Park where the Greens have at least a theoretical chance of recording an upset. The table above will compare available booth results with those from last year’s state election to produce an estimated final result on the primary vote, which will then be converted to two-party preferred on the following basis: 70 per cent to the Greens from the Democrats, Nigel Strauss and Adrian Jackson, 50 per cent from John Dobinson and 30 per cent from the DLP, Family First and Prodos Marinakis (all of whom are recommending the Greens be put last). Anyone who doubts any of these assessments is invited to raise their voice in comments, and I will consider changing them.
Looking good for Labor!
Any news of Family First or Exclusive Brethren campaigning tactics against the Greens?
GG: Funny
This has already probably been well discussed, but The Greens should do well with the donkey vote.
Arbie Jay:
Yes I heard rumours that FF was distributing leaflets at every polling booth encouraging people to vote for them and giving the Greens the last number. Shocking yet true.
My comment from the other thread
I did a turn for Labor on the HTVs in St Kilda this morning. There were a few angry Greenies after our successful sting on their silly selective schools policy, but since the Libs squibbed the fight the by-elections really have no federal relevance. The recent federal shenanigans mean that the by-elections have had very little coverage, so the Greens have got no traction.
IMHO the Greens blew their chance of winning Albert Park by picking a “typical†candidate (geeky-looking male with beard) instead of finding a star candidate, and then being baited by Labor into arguing about Labor’s allegations rather than promoting their own winning issues (bay dredging, Grand Prix). They should stick to what they are good at – why does a greens party need a selective schools policy at all?
I don’t think there is any anti-state-Labor sentiment in Victoria, so I don’t see any prospect of a big swing. Most Liberals will either stay home or vote DLP or FF, with preferences to Labor ahead of Greens.
Of course, I may be totally wrong. We will see in an hour or two.
Why is it shocking that FF should distribute HTVs or not preference the Greens?
Sorry Adam I was being sarcastic.
Speaker
So no-one driving around in cars with pig masks on, no leaflets saying the Greens will legalsie every drug possible and turn your kids gay.
I’m impressed, looks like they are becoming civilised.
ah, OK.
Can somebody please explain exactly why the Greens don’t have a leader in Victoria despite having a parliamnetary team of 3?
In Albert Part I reckon without the Liberals running FF may poll okay I’m not sure what Issues they pushed but in places like St Kilda you have those whom are very Liberal minded then next door you have have people whom are quite Conservate in nature, I suspect they’ll poll over 10%
I though Gary Barber was the Green leader.
In my strong experience in council elections, the smaller the party/candidate the less you can expect their preferences to flow a certain way and the more that you need to assume 50-50.
If FF were handing out greens last leaflets, then you could expect their voters to follow to about 80%. If the DLP were not then you would assume that their 3% would probably put labor last about 70% as you’ve said.
Not sure who Prodos is, but anything more than 60% would be overestimating the power over his voters, the majority who have probably never heard of him.
I reckon the Dems will come in at 75-80%, and the two independants I reckon will be closer to 50% than 70%. If you only assume they’ll get a 1% vote, that translates to about 250 votes tonight (assuming about 70% turnout today, with another 15% to come later). so changing from 70% to 50% is only about 50 votes anyway so it won’t (perhaps!) make a huge difference.
Will keep watching tonight!
Cheers
Former Hack
How many booths have each electorate got?
They have a radical collectivist, anti-leader ideology. Barber is the de facto leader but won’t be identified as such. Given the way the media works they pay a price for this. The federal Greens used to do the same but theye eventually accepted reality and now promote Brown as their leader.
The Kiwi Greens have male and female co-leaders.
Sounds interesting, but I wonder how well it works..
What is happening with postal and prepoll for this election?
Prodos is a disendorsed Liberal – a Greek cross-dresser with long hair and lots of jewellery. We need more candidates like this 🙂 His HTV’s refered to his “liberal philosophy” so he may attract some Liberal vote, but most of it will go to the DLP or FF. (Or nowhere.)
From my understanding I think Southbank comes first (normally a Lib booth) I think there about 13 booths but may be wrong.
Adam (5),
Of course there are ALP people who don’t like the party’s support for selective schools too, but they tend to be a minority these days.
I’ve got a colleague who I think will be voting for Prodos then. He was looking for a crazy independant.
Above, I meant to say that 70% DLP will put GREENS last, not Labor.
I think FF will get most of the Liberal vote, but remember that 104 effectively endorsed the Greens by having a crack at Labor during the campaign.
Prodos is a deadset legend.
Adam,
You don’t think that a few Liberals will vote Democrat rather than DLP or FF? There is no doubt in my mind that Labor will win both seats comfortably.
16: “The Kiwi Greens have male and female co-leaders.”
The Swedish Greens similarly have co-spokespeople (as opposed to leaders). That’d probably work similarly, and then the media would know who to talk to I guess if that was really the issue they had…
Thank you Adam, I thought that might be the answer, but I was chiding myself for thinking in stereotypes.
I wonder if today’s announcement from John So and backed by John Brumby of Melbourne’s answer to the APEC shutdown will have any effect on polling?
For non Melbournian, it has been announced that the corner of Swanston Street and Flinders Street will be shut down for a whole weekend next February for a Steven Speilberg movie. Which means no trams on these streets and no public access to Flinders Street Station. Hope the Chaser get a cameo role!
Non MelbournianS
104 should explain why it didn’t turn up to Albert Park, okay we excuse them for hiding from Williamstown
Yes Christian Prodo is a Legend.
An idle thought during the wait..
I thought Labor’s “The Greens vote Liberal 62% of the time” (or similar) was a slight mistake.
It might make Liberal voters think voting Green is the next best thing when there are no liberal candidates around.. but maybe it was designed to undermine the Greens core constituency..
Good point speaker if I lived in Albert Park I would have considered voted Green, but Martin Foley is a good choice for the ALP
25: “I wonder if today’s announcement from John So and backed by John Brumby of Melbourne’s answer to the APEC shutdown will have any effect on polling?”
Interesting to see that happened less than a week after Brumby KB’d a “car free day” in the CBD and John So abstained.
Good to see you on board CK. Enjoying the book you’ve published and hope you and Susie are keeping well.
What I am suggesting is that wherever the lib vote goes, I think that a fair chunk of it will come back to the greens before labor. Their first vote is largely irrelevant (and will almost certainly be spread widely).
I reckon the Greens will get up tonight.
Liberla voters see the Greens as a radical left party and they see Labor as well to the right of the Greens. It is one thing to follow a htv and give preferences to the Greens but faced with a choice they are likely to prefer Labor. This was the pattern in the Labor-Communist electoral battles of the past.
Chris, I think the Dems are a busted brand, but they may get some Liberal votes. They preferenced the Greens.
Blackburn, this is the first I’ve heard about the shutdown, so I doubt it influenced many votes (bit then I don’t watch TV so I’m not very typical).
Speaker, the “68%” provocation was designed to stop Labor votes leaking to the Greens, and to bait the Greens into debating our allegations rather than their own issues.
I predict easy Labor wins.
“The Greens win Albert Park” if St Kilda East, Reden Central, Ellwood south were still in Albert Park I could see that happening but I feel the ALP will hold this seat.
Adrian Jackson’s prefs at the last state election went 142 to Labor, 148 to green, 109 to the Libs and 119 to CK’s mate’s PP party. If you extrapolate the 109 libs votes out you can probably assume a 60-40 split or 50-50. Not the 70-30 you’ve suggested.
The Greens are a tarnished brand in Victoria. Their close association with the Libs will come back to bite them on the rear.
Where were People Power anyway ?
btw I think the DLP taking Vern Hughes was poor judgement. I thought his takeover of the PP website after being ousted as president was sour grapes and unethical.
The Greens in Victoria are a joke at present which will be interesting come federal election day, this may also be explaining why the Green vote is well down according to the polls.
Thanks FH, Jackson preferences amended as suggested.
Adam,
I agree the Democrats are finished, but the by-election atmosphere may pull a few more centrist liobs in tneir direction. I guess we are all certain that the order on primaries will be 1) ALP, 2) Greens, 3) others, but the breakup among the third group will be interesting. I don’t know much about the independents standkng, but I expect FF to get more votes than the DLP and the Democrats.
Looking at the 06 election results and assuming the following preference flows to Labor from the Greens to create a notional 2PP (Lab-Greens) vote for the entire electorate, the greens would need to get 80% of the Liberal vote to get up.
(This assumes CEC goes 50% to Labor, Jackson 40%, FF 30%, PP 30%)
If you adjust a few of these low numbers up, you’d need the greens to get only about 70-75% to get up. This is highly likely and in my mind I reckon it will happen.
I will produce notional polling place 2PPs soon so we can get an idea of swings required as we would for a normal poll.
Sorry, just checked VEC site, PP are de-registered.
Does anyone know who Catherine Cumming in the Williamstown bielection is? The early results has here polling at 9.3%? Perhaps a huge donkey vote or is there something there?
I know she’s on Maribyrnong council, just off the top of my head.
I think for conservative voters that FF is now a better-known brand than the DLP, although I imagine Catholics would be reluctant to vote for them. Chris might have an opinion on this.
I disagree that the Greens are a joke etc. They make lots of mistakes, but they are still the prefered option for leftwing voters, and Albert Park has plenty of those. Foley is from the SL which may help a bit but his image is of “standard Labor bloke,” so I expect the Greens will get most of the “left” vote despite their dull candidate.
Greens polling 25% in williamstown to Labor’s 52%. 2 booths in.
It will be interesting to see how much voters follow the HTVs for the independents and minor party candidates. I would expect most of the Dems preferences to go to the Greens, as we had solid booth coverage. Adrian Jackson did not register a HTV, and there was no one handing out for John Dobinson on the booth I was on in South Melbourne.
Every other candidate had someone handing out for them, though.
Catherine Cumming is probably benefiting from the donkey vote ?
A pleasant sign for any Greens awaiting Albert Park results.
GG @ 37 “close association with the Libs” – you know thats not true and so do others here. But then, that’d be like the fact that the ALP and Libs vote together in the Senate & HoR’s so often too…
bmwofoz @ 39 ” The Greens in Victoria are a joke” – that would be like the ALP’s climate change policy, eh! Come to NSW and sniff the coal dust in the air from all the new mines and power stations…
Interesting to note that (albeit only 5.5% of the vote in) the informal rate at Williamstown is running at over 6%