Comments thread chat informs us that the headline result of an ACNielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets has been revealed by Laurie Oakes on the Channel Nine news. This has Labor’s lead two-party lead at 57-43 compared with 55-45 last month. More details as they come to hand. There is also reason to believe tomorrow’s edition of The West Australian will feature one of its small-sample Westpoll surveys of voting intention at the Poll Bludger’s end of the continent; if so, you will read about it here in the small hours of the morning EST.
UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here, though no detail yet beyond that provided by Oakes.
UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures at the Sydney Morning Herald: Labor up from 44 per cent to 49 per cent, Coalition down from 41 per cent to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up 8 per cent to equal its March high of 67 per cent, “pushing him ahead of the pre-election ratings achieved by Malcolm Fraser in 1975 and Bob Hawke in 1983”. Remarkably, the Prime Minister’s approval rating remains steady at a more than respectable 50 per cent.
Adam
pessimism does not become you
though no-one here seems to be boasting
it seems to myself more like hopeful expectation as opposed to an outright certainty in peoples minds
[Does anyone know (as I do not) enough of Menzies’ history to know if he perpetrated one or more of the types of outrages John Howard has? Was Menzies seen as benign/autocratic? Why was he in power for so long?]
One reason was he red scare, Howard has Islamic Terrorism to play up, Menzies had Communism. Which leads into why he was in power, the ALP split into two parties. the anti-communist Democratic Labor Party, and the resgular ALP. The DLP preferenced the Liberals ahead of the ALP, thus keeping it in power.
Having said that, it is kind of a misnomer saying that the DLP was anti-communist, becuase that seems to imply the ALP was pro-communist, when it wasn’t.
Adam
if the ALP win, it will be prescience, not hubris. Still, I also have suffer from the superstition that cockiness will be punished. I’ve got a budget of $300 for the election night party. I’m waiting for the odds against the coalition to get to $3.00. Then my $100 bet will cover me if Howard gets up. Of , not, who cares!
Off topic….but did anyone see President Hu yawning while the fireworks display was on? I bet he was thinking “this nota firawoks cum Olympics we showa firawoks”
Labor probably would have won an election held in May 2001.
By November, the Coalition had turned it around.
To repeat the feat in 2007, the Coalition has to make up a lot more ground in a lot less time. I can’t see that happening.
[if the ALP win, it will be prescience, not hubris. Still, I also have suffer from the superstition that cockiness will be punished. I’ve got a budget of $300 for the election night party. I’m waiting for the odds against the coalition to get to $3.00. Then my $100 bet will cover me if Howard gets up. Of , not, who cares!]
I hope the polls close in to 55 / 45, and stay that way and that is the final result on election day. If the polls stay out in the 55 – 59 range, then some people will switch their votes on election day just because they don’t want a landslide. Which could make it even closer than 55 / 45.
Having said that, if Rudd wins by 1 seat I’ll be happy!
But Menzies almost got rolled in 1961, winning by just one seat over a Labor Party that got a majority of the 2PP vote and had a pretty lacklustre leader (Calwell). There was a credit squeeze at the time.
I do see some parallels with today’s interest rate rises and high housing costs. I spoke to a young teacher today, who told me that she is unable to afford even a one-bedroom flat anywhere in Melbourne. Tha wouldn’t be a problem, except that rents are outrageous and hard to get as well. She is still living with her parents, and is frustrated by that.
While I acknowledge that WorkChoices is a big issue, I still think interest rates/housing costs is the issue that’s affecting more people directly. And while I think the Federal Government doesn’t deserve all the blame, the electorate wants to take revenge on someone.
What promise will the government make on interest rates this election? Will they stick to the line that they’ll always keep them lower than Labor?
[What promise will the government make on interest rates this election? Will they stick to the line that they’ll always keep them lower than Labor?]
I don’t think they will make that mistake. More likely they will promise to cut the GST on houses either to 0 or 5%. If the states complain, then that would be good, becuase it would be hard for the states to say cutting a tax is bad.
My choices for John Howard
The Tide is Turning Roger Waters
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvTvWJWeQ2g
A brilliant Anthem
and Go Johnny Go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEZXn8FC214
Hey I went looking for it on You Tube and found a film clip about John Howard set to the music. Have a look at it guys.
And just a further observation on the 1961 election…Labor achieved a swing of more than five per cent, and got almost 48 per cent of the primary vote…and still lost! They must have gotten buggerall preferences, no leakage from the DLP. And back then, there were no Greens, and not many independents either. Times have changed.
thats the 4 major polls with shifts of 2-4 % away from the Coalition when they were hoping for a shrinking of the gap or at least the status quo.
the real challenge I think is how can Howard make up such a huge gap? Even with a scare campaign? Rudd is a great media performer so he wont crash and burn anyway.
I dont think Howard will quit. I do love seeing him squirm as the polls nosedive and the commentators desert him though!!
just had a brainwave for the libs
make christopher pyne leader
at least everyone will have a chuckle
[the real challenge I think is how can Howard make up such a huge gap? Even with a scare campaign? Rudd is a great media performer so he wont crash and burn anyway.]
It will be very interesting to see exaclty what he does. When was the last time he was in this sort of position? When he was going up against Hawke in 1987?
We know that he is actually a complete opportunist, he actually doesn’t have much of a plan for the country, he never has. His first thought has been to do whatever it was to win. But what does he do know when he is too conservative to change his entire career? How does he reinvent himself in 7 weeks?
Antonio,
Perhaps your “frustrated” young teacher was not so much reflecting on the housing costs as saying: your place, not mine.
Chris B,
See – Howard the Duck even makes an appearance.
BTW – love the song. Radio Kaos is one of my fav CD’s (yeah – a floyd freak here)
Ichor…no, not true.
Another awful poll for the Rodent, but he ain’t going anywhere, he’ll fight it out until the end, and if that means taking half the Coalition members with him, so what, as long as he socks it to Captain Smirky.
My most optimistic prediction for Labor: a majority of 10.
OK. Sticking-neck-out time (or Haftenansatz-heraus Zeit as our teutonic cousins would have it)
Howard will call the election this week after Stephen Harper’s address. The election will be called for 3 November. Howard will run the union bosses fear and the Rudd shredder-gate smear. The front bench will focus on the inexperience and union ties of the Rudd front bench. They will also push the who-do-you-trust-with-the-economy line.
Rudd has been fairly quiet so far, but will start to roll out a raft of policies aimed at families, women, security and the economy while highlighting the ALP’s strengths on IR and the environment. They will run ads about WorkChoices impact on families and stressing Howard’s links to nuclear energy, including the greenpeace anti-nuclear ad.
Despite the mud-raking, Rudd’s popularity will not be hurt. The final result will be 53/47 TPP. Howard will hang on in Bennelong by a whisker, but stand down as leader of the party in favour of Costello. Turnbull will lose Wentworth.
My ‘Don’s Party’ will cost $300 and be worth every cent!
[Another awful poll for the Rodent, but he ain’t going anywhere, he’ll fight it out until the end, and if that means taking half the Coalition members with him, so what, as long as he socks it to Captain Smirky.]
This would be because he is thinking of the history books. If he gets rolled, then he wants there to be blood on someone elses hands so he can blame them for showing disunity, and bringing down the government.
But I think it is all getting kind of sad. Surely the first thing politicians should learn is when it is time to go.
# 167 Rob Says: My ‘Don’s Party’ will cost $300 and be worth every cent!
Remember… in Don’s Party, the ALP lost. There is still SUCH a long way to go…
Listening to the music.
My favourite for months I am still keeping secret for election night.
Meanwhile, ‘In the Mood’ will do.
Pi said
OK, Rob’s party then 🙂 And yes, there is a long way to go, and yes, my neck is stuck out!
Simon Howson,
Of course the DLP was anti-communist. That is the whole reason it came into existence.
All those complaining about housing prices,
I am certain a Labor victory won’t put a dent in them. Hubris or not: are we already at the stage of deflating expectations?
[Of course the DLP was anti-communist. That is the whole reason it came into existence.]
Um, yeah, my point was that didn’t mean the ALP was pro-communist, even though Menzies tried to say they were.
I didn’t read this in any of the papers, but Rudd’s Com-Car was stopped from entering the secure zone because it wasn’t part of a motorcade!
To make it to lunch with Vladmir Putin, Rudd had to approach a police officer, and get escorted in a police car!
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=294355
Howard will not resign. There is no one that can do any better than he is. He will talk up in the party room…what if the polls are wrong, what if we can crawl our way back?
I will believe the win on the night when the votes are in. It will be a tough campaign and I do not trust the Liberal Party to not play dirty,
But I am really enjoying these polls.
Chris
You are a champion! Finding all those stats on populations of countries and tiers of government, I had no idea it was so common! We certainly do have a large country and a small population, which does stretch resources more than most on that list, though I might have thought that this could provide more reasons for rationalising government layers not fewer? We can’t afford the infrastructure, let alone the overlapping bureaucracy to administer it.
One advantage we have over (probably) all of the other countries on that list is urbanisation at around 93%, which means that regions could mostly be manageable in size, if we were to rationalise to regions of perhaps 300 000 – 500 000.
I do think it is necessary to have competitive tension in at least two levels of government to run well, but doubt whether local councils are efficient on service delivery on this front. It is also harder to get quality leaders in with very small populations and pretty ordinary councillor salaries (Heck! Look how hard it was to get a great leader even Federally for Labor and in every state for the Coalition!!)
from memory, the changes to leadership scenarios that have been plyaed out in the past where there is a “tap on the shoulder” have historicaly taken about 6 months to effect change. Hawke >>keating, beazley& Crean etc, these sorts of things don’t happen quickly enough to fit into the timelines left for Mr Bolte’s aggitations to come true
As it is, the only circuit breaker that is already locked and loaded is the 20 Septmebr changes to Cetnrelink assets test exemtption that I mentioned months ago on this site.
There are some seriously benficial changes for senior citezens rolling out over the next few weeks, whereby people who have missed out on the entire “eceominic mirable” argument from the coaliation get to join the party for the first time
An AC neilson of 57/43 will help Howard lock himself in for the next election. It may even help him delay until early december….if straws need to be clutched then this poll is a staw that floated within reach
Simon Howson, thanks for that insight. Reds under Beds, I suppose. The landscape is so different these days. I do tend to think that Howard as media star has outlived his welcome. Too much exposure.
John Hewson said the only way you’ll get Howard out of Kirribilli House is in a box. And don’t discount the influence of Janette, who obviously enjoys being Mrs Prime Minister. The Australian people will have to do the deed, otherwise the rodent will stay in the job until he’s 80.
House Prices
Still convinced Aussies’ll whinge either way, whether they go up or down!! If they go up, people are buying them and people obviously think they can afford them (usually confidence in their earning potential). If they go flat or down, it is usually a lack of confidence in this. Either way, to be really honest, no one says you HAVE to own a house NOW.
Anyone who follows real estate (particularly somewhere like Sydney!!) will see the cycles, which run predictably 8-9 years apart. So don’t buy on peaks, rent. Or commute! Or get a new job! If you are working for a house you can’t afford, there is no part of that equation that is “living”!!
This is why I cannot believe that governments are blamed for housing affordability. If anything, our financial institutions should be made accountable for lowering the bar on mortgages and taking advantage of the public with the (previous) gravy of credit flowing, knowing full well that it couldn’t hold forever!!
Re Rudd’s Car being blocked by the Keystone Cops, I’m absolutely amazed that the Chasers could get through with obvious fake passes, while Rudd with proper ones couldn’t.
Honestly, the NSW Police couldn’t organise a root in a brothel.
The odds of the ALP winning the next election are strangly similar to NZ winning the world cup.
NZ is clearly the best team by a healty – but there is a lot to happen between now and the final.
In other words – enjoy the good polls its not over.
[Simon Howson, thanks for that insight. Reds under Beds, I suppose. The landscape is so different these days. I do tend to think that Howard as media star has outlived his welcome. Too much exposure.]
Apparently during the 1983 election Malcolm Fraser said under Labor people would be afraid to bank their money for fear Labor would lose / steal it. Fraser said people would put their money under their beds, to which Hawke replied “But that’s where all the Reds are!”.
[Honestly, the NSW Police couldn’t organise a root in a brothel.]
I thought they regularly did this before I.C.A.C.?
There’s only way Howard can go: negative! But, it’ll backfire on them, the same way it has all year when they’ve tried to smear Rudd.
180
Generic Oracle Says:
September 9th, 2007 at 11:13 pm
House Prices
But there things governments can do to improve the availability and affordabilty of housing. They should do them – for lots of reasons.
Good design of tax policies in particular can change the dynamics of the market on the supply side, while there are equally smart things that can be done to help new entrants into the market. Access to housing is a key policy area. Hopefully, it will soon get some attention.
Saw Kevin on the telly tonight. I think he has a soft spot for me..
What surprised me is that in the Crosby-Textor report I read on Friday, giving a clear analysis of who “owned” which topics in terms of perception, I thought economic management was still weakly a plus for the government.
This ad, however, gave assurances from Kevin Rudd that he would keep budgets in surplus, on average and that he would keep interest rates under control. I like the guy, but I found this a bit logically flawed on the basis of recent press statements by the ALP:
1. If Rudd/Swan backed the current budget and agreed to Costello’s books and,
2. If they are, indeed, Economic Conservatives and,
3. Howard has faced 9 (possibly now 10) rate rises since 2004
then… pray tell, how has the ALP shown how they will manage better??
Further to this:
1. If Kevin is committed to budget surplus and,
2. Mr Swan has fired a volley at Peter Costello for “Overtaxing, then overspending” and
3. The ALP is reluctant to rid from its image the spectre of being financially irresponsible with debt,
then, … pray tell, how will the ALP promise surpluses without knowing the future economic figures ahead of time, without over-taxing as they have accused the coalition of doing??
I tend to think anything greater than 57/43 is a bit optimistic.
While poll after poll is indicating that the ALP is likely to win this election, I tend to think about 53:47 is the most likely end outcome at this stage.
There were a lot of polls saying around ALP 57+ at the NSW election, although the actual result was a little bit lower than that in the end. I don’t think the ALP vote will get into the high 50s on election day unless we start seeing some polls showing their vote into the 60s.
The simple fact of the matter is if workchoices is the only thing negative about the Government…that seems rather a small reason to peg this 10 percent rise 2PP in Labor’s vote…
Least you Rudd supporters forget about the ‘Kinnock factor’…hubris is deadly the left riles about Howard being full of hubris in putting workchoices in place but the Liberal Party simply has to have election ads out with Rudd with his May Day declaration that the ALP would win the next election…if anybody has displayed more hubris than Kevin Rudd i wouldnt know the fact is his media scripted lines about it being a close election are a mere facade with which to placate the people of Australia into thinking he’s taking them seriously…
But while we ‘sleep walk’ into a Rudd Government and with the media so dazzled and in love with Kevin 07 we have seen zero to none scrutiny of any of Labor’s policies which for the most part have been a ramshackle and a pure load of rubbish that have as many holes as swiss cheese…
Labor’s Broadband policy (takes money out of the locked box of the Future Fund when business should fit the bill)
Peter Garrett’s solar power rebate was (even confusing for Garrett who thought in Parliament they were doubling it when they were merely extending it)
Labor’s IR policy Mark I and Mark II (still a dogs breakfast no detail and hardly any sector of Australia is satisfied about the plans)
Now this is not to safe Labor doesnt have any decent policies im sure they may but while every television news outlet spends more time talking about Howard’s future and not on scrutiny of each sides policies…Labor’s untested policies could be disastrous for our country the simple fact is that unless the media scrutinises the ALP’s policies adequately as they most surely do with the Government’s the country will be worse off if Rudd wins…
In the end i still think the devil you know will win, simply because the economy is doing so well and i dont think when it comes down to it they’ll vote for inexperience rather than experience…that being said at this stage the ALP are clear favourites and the Government is still barely in touch with them in the polls…anybody can win from here…let’s not forget the Irish elections where Bertie Ahern’s Government was returned despite being down in the polls for months and months….
I for one think it would extremely naive for so many of you all do be planning election victory celebrations and since many of you have carried on for so long about how this election ‘will be the sweetest victory of them all’ i for one will have a chuckle at your expense if Labor does not win later this year.
Blind
Well what is wrong with offering tax deductibility on first home owner’s loans for the first five years? This could save about $100 a week that some on this site have been concerned about since 2004 with the rate rises… First Home buyers are most sensitive to rises, after all.
I believe a party has raised this, that it has been hi-jacked by Mr Joyce and that it is now doing the rounds of the “mainstream” parties..
Sensible, no?
Simon says:
[Apparently during the 1983 election Malcolm Fraser said under Labor people would be afraid to bank their money for fear Labor would lose / steal it. Fraser said people would put their money under their beds, to which Hawke replied “But that’s where all the Reds are!â€]
Yep, if i remember correctly Fraser said that “if labor wins people would be better of putting their money under their beds”. Hawke’s reply was the feature item of news that night and introduced laughter into an otherwise grim campain.
I think it was also the point where it was clear Fraser was going to loose.
I do hope Rudd has a similar moment in the 07 election. He does have the wit to acheive it.
from the grapevine:
ALP is up 3 to 49% Primary
Coalition is down 2 to 39%
On PPM Rudd is up 4% at 52% to Howard 39% down 2%
Rudd soars to 67% approval rating, a massive 8% jump after APEC and back to the record high.
The times no longer suit Howard. His famous luck has deserted him and everything he touches turns to Krudd. The irony is delicious. This is going to be a fascinating week to see if Howard survives as leader only to lead the Libs to an electoral rout and the dark ages. History is being written as we speak and it ain’t gonna be kind to the man of rust.
Hey oracle… can you some up your concerns in a sentence?
Hey glen… can you sum up your concerns in a sentence?
David,
The reason why the NSW polls overstated the Labor vote was because they all seemed to forget that in NSW State Elections, you can exhaust your preferences. As such, the polls were assuming that most Green voters would preferences Labor, whilst in reality, most Green votes would have exhausted.
Generic Oracle,
Rudd promised to keep the budget in surplus ON AVERAGE. That allows for it to fall into deficit when there is an economic downturn and government spending increases (through the form of welfare payments) and revenue decreases (through lower taxation revenue).
I hope we never have a government stupid enough to “promise” to keep the budget in surplus forever – that would rank up there with Latham’s “pledge” to keep interest rates low.
Glen,
I think most people here are cautiously optimistic about Labor winning (I know I am), but it would be a bit rash to call this far our – I’ll definitely be reassessing after the first debate tho…
Got the spelling right this time.
Glen! Long time, no see. Labor does have policies. Have you not looked? Devils we do know. Think not.
There’s only one script Glen reads… so there’s no time for actually determining whether he’s telling the truth or not.
[I do hope Rudd has a similar moment in the 07 election. He does have the wit to acheive it.]
I can still remember Howard saying to Keating during a 1996 TV debate “The people don’t believe you anymore”. To me that’s the closest thing I’ve seen to a knock out blow in a TV debate. It was sad, but after 13 years it was at least partly true.
I hope Rudd uses the same line on Howard.
Pi
Good point. I’ll sum them up:
Kevin is bold pushing the economic line when there are logical flaws in support, guaranteeing surpluses without economic data sounds like a commitment to overtax and a great way to help homeowners is through honeymoon tax deductibility.
OuCh!! That REALLLLLY hurt, Pi. Don’t make me do that too often, would ya???! I think I have indigestion!!
[The reason why the NSW polls overstated the Labor vote was because they all seemed to forget that in NSW State Elections, you can exhaust your preferences.]
I wish we had optional preferential at the federal level. Previously I was in Mayo and there was always a candidate from the Citizens Electoral Council, and for one election One Nation. I know my vote would never end up with them, but why should I even have to put a number near them?