ACNielsen: 57-43

Comments thread chat informs us that the headline result of an ACNielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets has been revealed by Laurie Oakes on the Channel Nine news. This has Labor’s lead two-party lead at 57-43 compared with 55-45 last month. More details as they come to hand. There is also reason to believe tomorrow’s edition of The West Australian will feature one of its small-sample Westpoll surveys of voting intention at the Poll Bludger’s end of the continent; if so, you will read about it here in the small hours of the morning EST.

UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here, though no detail yet beyond that provided by Oakes.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures at the Sydney Morning Herald: Labor up from 44 per cent to 49 per cent, Coalition down from 41 per cent to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up 8 per cent to equal its March high of 67 per cent, “pushing him ahead of the pre-election ratings achieved by Malcolm Fraser in 1975 and Bob Hawke in 1983”. Remarkably, the Prime Minister’s approval rating remains steady at a more than respectable 50 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

386 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  1. [If there is an announcement on Wednesday, but Parliament sits until Friday, any predictions on what bombshell will hit during the final days of the Parliament?]

    I think the ALP will try to move a censure motion against Howard during Question Time. But the government will probably oppose it because it would result in a heap of bad TV coverage during that night.

    I think the more likely scenario is Howard going to the G.G. on Friday. I think he must call the election this week not as a “circuit breaker” (god I hate that term) but because the longer he wants the more the public the back bench sniping will become.

  2. Howard stepping down won’t help. It will just look like a cut and run and voters will punish the Libs. Libs may do better with a new leader but that person has to take the leadership. He(?) has to stand up a roll Howard. But who is going to? (rhetorical question) So it has to be an election called soon – yes, probably this week.

  4. [Howard stepping down won’t help. It will just look like a cut and run and voters will punish the Libs. Libs may do better with a new leader but that person has to take the leadership. He(?) has to stand up a roll Howard. But who is going to? (rhetorical question) So it has to be an election called soon – yes, probably this week.]

    If Howard does stay, the worst he could do is just to coast towards defeat. He should make some drastic policy announcement that at least polarises voters, and gives them something to vote for. It probably won’t be enough to win the election, but surely there comes a point when he must simply try to minimise the loss. After September 11 and Tampa I always felt Beazley just didn’t think he could win, but felt he could stop a huge slide against the ALP. I wonder if Howard has the skills to do the same?

  5. BxTom, Howard can’t be lying about wanting to lead, because “Howard the Coward” would be the headline in the papers if he quit!!

  6. [If he calls the election Wednesday he avoids a challenge. The insiders suggested why not wait till Firiday?]

    It is a tough situation, he could TELL the party room on Tuesday “I’m calling the election on Friday”, but the trouble is it would get leaked, and thus Rudd / Gillard would have a field day “We all know you are going to call an election, but why haven’t you done it!”

    I just don’t think he will be challenged. His autocratic approach has caused the backbenchers to lose their ability to revolt or force a change. The only way Howard will go is if he chooses to resign, if he is to be challenged then he can shift blame onto others.

  7. BTW, anyone read the piece by Lenore Taylor in Saturday’s AFR? According to research done for ACTU the key issues are Workchoices and Howard himself (note: not Rudd). And most people who have changed their vote think Howard is “past his use-by date”. Can’t see how the Libs are going to get them back.

  8. I don’t think the ALP will move a censure motion for three reasons.

    First, it’s star is in the ascendancy. A censure motion would be lost, if not killed before it is lost. Why adopt a strategy that robs you of your political momentum?

    Second, when you want to rally the troops, move a censure motion – but this is a battle that has moved into a different stage. The tactics will be largely played out beyond the walls of the two houses, supplemented by the theatre inside those walls. A censure motion focuses attention on a forum where Labour has no control, rather than the press pack where Rudd is in control.

    Third, if a scene has to be played by the news from parliament, it won’t be a censure motion: it will be someone (probably a retiring member or Bill Heffernan) taking one last chance to use the protection of parliamentary privilege to propagate some scandalous attention grabber.

  10. Howard resigning would be counterproductive. In the increasingly unlikely event that the Coalition win the election, the win would be on the back of them getting traction on their only two real strengths – experience and economic management.

    To that end, if Howard quits and Costello takes his place and a new Treasurer is sworn in, both the economic management and experience arguments are significantly weakened. These two areas are the Coalition’s only hope. They can’t afford to weaken either of them.

  11. If the libs have been such great economic managers how come our trade deficit continues month after month year after year? Net foreign debt and personal debt have tripled in ten years. As for the press gallery reread The Latham Diaries, we need a cleanout there too.

  12. [According to research done for ACTU the key issues are Workchoices and Howard himself (note: not Rudd). And most people who have changed their vote think Howard is “past his use-by date”. ]

    On Insiders today Andrew Bolt said the only option is to change to Costello. He said that even if Howard stays, that doesn’t actually resolve the leadership issue because people know he has become such a liability.

    In a way it is kind of like the Adelaide Crows’ captain Mark Riccuito playing his last game yesterday. After they lost, the coach conceeded that he wasn’t fully fit, but out of loyalty and respect he was selected in the side because dropping the captain after 300+ games was deemed to be unfair.

  14. [First, it’s star is in the ascendancy. A censure motion would be lost, if not killed before it is lost. Why adopt a strategy that robs you of your political momentum?]

    Censure motions are always lost. It gives the leader of the opposition 6 minutes to say things that grab a TV news headline, that’s the only real practical reason for it these days. If the opposition does it then it could make any leadership speculation worse.

    It won’t happen Tuesday because the Canadian P.M. but Wednesday and Thursday are possibilities, especially if leadership speculation is STILL going on. Surely Rudd would make reference to that in his speech, which makes it easy for the media to package it together.

  15. I think this poll is more on the money than the other recent ones, Morgan suggesting that Nats were at 1.5% was too wacky.

    I think the scare campaign will be
    “Do you want Labor in every government in Australia….who will control the bully unions?”

    I think that sort of scare campaign is worth several percent, its sort of a new twist on keeping the bastards honest.

    I’m betting the Labor line for the last 3 elections about a vote for Howard is a vote for Costello won’t be used again.

  17. Will, I don’t think Labor is going to win Kooyong, although we have a very good candidate in Dr Ken Harvey, but I think we might run old Petro very close. This area is trending steadily to Labor, as are older wealthy suburban areas across Australia, driven by issues like climate change and refugees. Kooyong, Wentworth, Ryan, Boothby, North Sydney – seats like this, Liberal for generations, are increasingly soft for them, just as “aspirational” seats like Aston and Casey, once marginal, have got increasingly safe for them. Labor very nearly won the old East Yarra Province in the Victorian upper house, which had similar boundaries, in 2002. Petro’s reputation as a backbench rebel on the refugee issue will stand him in good stead now, although he has a reputation as a lazy MP. Andrew Robb in Goldstein might also get a shock. The Ruddster was campaigning in Brighton, of all places, a couple of weeks ago with Julia Mason – another excellent candidate. A pity our candidates in the Victorian marginals aren’t quite as outstanding, although Rodney Cocks in La Trobe is an exception.

  18. Hey Simon, don’t know if this is possible with this forum client or not, but if you opened straight into the last page when selecting the thread from the main page, you’d probably save a fair amount of bandwidth.

  20. [“Do you want Labor in every government in Australia….who will control the bully unions?”]

    That’s pretty good ifonly

    I also think the Libs will focus on the Costello vs Swan match-up, rather than Howard v Rudd.

    Costello gave a good rehearsal the other day:

    “Do you want to hand over your job, your mortgage, your future to this inexperienced group”.

  21. Any extreme move is a very high risk for the coalition. This includes changing leaders, big policy changes or major smear efforts. There is a tiny probability they will succeed with the most likely result being a precipitous dive in their vote. Their best chance by far of containing the rout is by sticking with the existing leader and policies and playing it pretty straight on the smear front.
    It will be a real test of their discipline – if they can hold course they may be left with a workable number in the House to provide some sort of effective opposition. if not, the votes only have to move by a few more percent to put all but a handful of seats in play.

  22. Adam, thanks for that, as I said I don’t think Kooyong is likely. If there is a nationwide swing, Kooyong will be one ‘lowering the average’. I did read a bit about Dr Ken Harvey, sounds very impressive. I’m thinking I might offer some help for handing out how to votes, that way I can do my part. Petro is useless, almost to the point that the Libs were wanting to dump him. I prefer deadwood, since it makes it easier to campaign against.

  24. [I think this poll is more on the money than the other recent ones, Morgan suggesting that Nats were at 1.5% was too wacky.]

    I agree. I think the real state of play is around 56 – 57. The last Newspoll at 59 was too high, likewise Morgan.

  26. Hope the election is announced on a Sunday rather than a weekday. It’s a bit of a rush (if you love politics) to watch the big white car roll into the GG’s live on Sky News.

  27. [The Libs could offer “stability, security and certainty” as their election slogan.

    It certainly works for Kim Jong-il.]

    And if Howard stays their campaign can be “ANYONE BUT HOWARD”

  28. winston (106)….

    Yes, I read it with interest. It confirms that Howard has done himself a lot of harm during this so-called phoney campaign. If this is phoney, then he must be dreading the real one.

    I’m feeling sorry (in a purely insincere way) for John Howard – the bar has been raised impossibly high for him now. Unless he can be really clever, no-one will take any notice of him. And if by chance he does do something clever, well that proves nothing: he will be dismissed for being too clever. What a mind-twisting experience it must be for him. And that’s not the half of it: in a not-at-all subtle way, Rudd publicly warned Howard this was going to happen. Howard, strung up with his own rhetoric: glorious.

    I wonder whether we will have some debates this year between H and R? Should be good fun.

  30. ifonly – I wouldn’t get too hung up on % vote for Nationals in the polls. Many voters don’t differentiate. If you polled in a National seat where there hadn’t been a Liberal candidate for years, people would still say they are going to vote Liberal. Some pollsters will compensate fo this in polls immediately preceding the election by only alllowing relevant responses. However, best to take coalition vote in toto.

  32. Greg,

    I don’t think the Costello line works; that is, “Do you want to hand over your job, your mortgage, your future to this inexperienced group”. Is not the rhetorical answer:
    my job is insecure and labour will make it more secure;
    my mortgage is getting worse when the Libs promised to make sure it didn’t get worse;
    my future is uncertain (although any future is always uncertain).

  33. 57/43 well that’s a near complete set of poll showing the ALP in the upper regions of the 50’s – remarkable this close to an election – is there any precident?

    Before the killer newspoll I feared it was going to play out:

    – 54:46 newspoll
    – APEC provids a boost to Howard
    – Election called
    – Mother of all scare campains
    – ALP wins 51:49 but fails to get a majority due to intense pork in the marginals.

    But, oh how quickly perceptions change. The head says biggest post WWII labor victory. The heart says – it aint safe yet.

  36. Ichor,

    Not saying it will win them the election by any means. Rather, merely repeating what Costello outlined. People will respond to such a question in different ways.

    Anyway, lot long to go now!

    I pitty anyone that doesn’t have SkyNews. In my opinion, it’s a magnificent political coverage and very unbiased. Looking forward to the campaign.

  39. Leopold comment 65

    Scratching my head a tad as to why – is a 0.25% rate rise really that big a negative?

    I tried to explain to you last year before bryan at ozpolitics shut down his comments – Yes 0.25% is a BIG deal. It’s $80.00 a month on my mortgage. That’s $400.00 a month since the last election. That’s the last pay rise I got and some more gone! I now have a child and my wife is off work until Feburary. If we can just get through till then we might be okay.

    Now people on the right are going to point fingers and say I just borrowed more than I could afford. I borrowed the average amount of a loan for a Sydney house which is $400,000.00 and it was well within my range 7 interest rate rises ago. Now it’s starting to get to be a real worry and we are looking at more rate rises ahead. Each interest rate rise is a BIG deal no matter how small because houses cost a great deal more these days.

    You obviously haven’t read about all the people losing their houses in mortgagee sales lately. And this was after the lie that the coalition would keep interest rates low. Well yes they are low but I would have been better off paying 17% interest and being able to buy my house for what it cost under the keating government!

  42. There’ll be funding promises for mass gymnastic displays and ribbon waving.

    Of course, Labor can argue “it’s time for a change”. That worked for Mao in the Cultural Revolution.

  44. Hubris warning:

    Richard Marles, ACTU assistant secretary and candidate for Corio, is no fool. This is him in May 2001…

    “This year we will have a federal election. Labor is probably going to win it. Let me just take you through that a little bit. Labor needs about 7 seats in order to win government. If the Queensland election were replicated in a federal context then upwards of 10 seats would be won in Queensland alone. On current polling it is expected that 3 or 4 seats will be picked up by Labor in West Australia and South Australia. On current polling 9 or 10 seats are expected to be picked up in Victoria but I think a more realistic estimate there is 4 or 5 seats. So just amongst those states alone you have twice the number of seats required in order for Labor to win government and we haven’t even considered NSW which many regard as the place where Labor is best positioned to gain seats and is of course the largest state. So it’s on that basis that I say that Labor is likely to win the election.”

    http://workers.labor.net.au/95/c_historicalfeature_awas.html

    Be warned.

  48. Intersting, I hiope Rudd does the same. When Rudd censured Howard over Obama comments, hardly anyone on the government side stayed in the chamber, it looked very bad. Howard was there with Julie Bishop and that was it.

  49. Perhaps “You Just Keep Me Hanging On” might work as a theme tune for Howard…

    “Why don’t you be a man about it
    And set me free
    You don’t care a thing about me
    You’re just using me

    Go on
    Get out
    Get out of my life
    And let me sleep at night
    Please

    ‘Cause you don’t really love me
    You just keep me hangin’ on” (background singers wail “woo-oo-oo”).

    Kevin Rudd may prefer Monty Python’s “I Like Chinese”.

  50. Why would it ever have been said that Howard could equal or better Menzies’ period in office. Would Howard not need another two or three years in office?

    Does anyone know (as I do not) enough of Menzies’ history to know if he perpetrated one or more of the types of outrages John Howard has? Was Menzies seen as benign/autocratic? Why was he in power for so long? Electoral vagaries of the period? Lack of opposition?

    Okay, maybe I should read something.

    I was born in 1948, one of twelve. Dad medium level public servant. Mum took on work only in her forties. Financially, not always relaxed and comfortable. Chooks, vegie garden, bulk buyers. Academic, some. Trade school others. Happy. Kids attended both public and private schools. Good, rounded base.

    Very politically interested, as a family. Cannot remember Menzies, as any kind of influence. Young people of today may similarly regard John Howard. Who? I cared about what was actually happening, politically, work wise, optimism, hope.

    Vietnam mattered, as a focus.

    I went with Whitlam, looked good to me.

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