ACNielsen: 57-43

Comments thread chat informs us that the headline result of an ACNielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets has been revealed by Laurie Oakes on the Channel Nine news. This has Labor’s lead two-party lead at 57-43 compared with 55-45 last month. More details as they come to hand. There is also reason to believe tomorrow’s edition of The West Australian will feature one of its small-sample Westpoll surveys of voting intention at the Poll Bludger’s end of the continent; if so, you will read about it here in the small hours of the morning EST.

UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here, though no detail yet beyond that provided by Oakes.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures at the Sydney Morning Herald: Labor up from 44 per cent to 49 per cent, Coalition down from 41 per cent to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up 8 per cent to equal its March high of 67 per cent, “pushing him ahead of the pre-election ratings achieved by Malcolm Fraser in 1975 and Bob Hawke in 1983”. Remarkably, the Prime Minister’s approval rating remains steady at a more than respectable 50 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

386 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  1. Ah this is silly! make up your own minds – I don’t care – I’m out of here for the evening! All the best to everyone!

  2. El Rodente to media after APEC song and dance night:

    “I was stoked.”

    Stone the crows, he’s a bonzer bloke afterall.

    But Dolly can say it in French.

  3. Unless an alternative bmwofoz wants to step forward, I don’t have any reason to think s/he is being impersonated.

    Bmwofoz, if you don’t want a comment to go into moderation, don’t swear. If you DO want to go into moderation, keep trying to “get around” my filters, and you will be put there for good.

  4. 51
    John Rocket Says:
    September 9th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
    Ah this is silly! make up your own minds – I don’t care – I’m out of here for the evening! All the best to everyone!

    Yes and take that other John with you!!

  5. Well I’m sorry, Scotty, but responsibility for the high security in Sydney DOES rest with the anarcho-trot-ferals who notoriously try to stage violent incidents at international conferences so that they can cry “repression” and recruit more naive and silly students to their cause. Have we forgotten Genoa, where someone was actually killed when he threw a fire extinguisher at a cop? You can hate Bush and Howard all you like (as I do), but the tactics of the extreme left do nothing to advance opposition to their policies, but rather play right into their hands.

    Back to local politics – all four polls have now shown that there was a swing back to Labor in August, wiping out the Liberal gains of the May-July period. I don’t think anyone can dispute the reality of that.

  6. i think we need to factor in that we’ll be facing the dirtiest most negative campaign in Australia’s history, the scare meter is going to go off the dial, it’s sure to send some wavering voters back to the coalition’s security blanket, thats a bit of a worry, i know the dirt/smear campaigns this year hav’nt gained traction but i know dammed well just how rotten Howards dirt unit can be and surely they would have saved the worst till the election campaign, in all of my years ive never seen anything like this nasty, spiteful set {i cant think of words bad enough} governing us now, i feel guilty and dirty myself for voting for them in 1996 and i’ll regret it till my dying day, i couldnt come at Lathan in 04 so i went democrat, swampy lets out a miserable sigh at that confession.

  7. Still think Howard will ( on balance) cut and run. The old formula, ” for as long as my party wants me I stay” will be the excuse. A hypothetical Party Room secret ballot for the leadership between Howard and Costello would produce a convincing Costello win. The ballot won’t happen – but the sentiment remains. Costello won’t declare his public support for Howard – as Downer and Nelson have ( sort of). Why should he? He will be asked, of course. Howard will be talking with Minchin, Downer, Heffernan, Morris tonight and tomorrow. Party Room sentiment will be conveyed to him – and he will be reminded of his own formula.
    If he doesn’t quit – and make the generational change – the Government will look even more disfunctional, divided because the leadership stories will not stop. If he stays, he names the election date instead – and leads his Party to political irrelevancy. It will be wiped off the floor and the Liberal Party condemned to three terms in Opposition. So, the only real option, he saves some face – and quits.

  8. [Back to local politics – all four polls have now shown that there was a swing back to Labor in August, wiping out the Liberal gains of the May-July period. I don’t think anyone can dispute the reality of that.]

    Where’s Glen?

  9. swampy Don’t be so pessimistic. Howard has been in election mode for six months. Nothing has worked. Unless he changes his modus operandi (and there’s nothing to suggest he will) it will be more of the same. Most people have already turned off. Fear and smear isn’t going to start working when if it hasn’t worked so far.

  10. Call the election please @ 35:

    “Another good poll result for the ALP. I still have a sinking feeling that the Coalition will be returned with a slim majority, but that’s just the pessimism in me”

    Mate, you’ve go nothing to worry about. As each week goes past, this situation reminds me more and more of the lead up to the 1997 UK election. Despite improving “economic indicators” (compared with the previous election) a long-running right-wing government suffered a record (post WW2) landslide loss.

    Like UK Labour in 1997, the ALP for the first time in more than a decade has a leader and party organisation who’ll swing marginal (and not so marginal) government seats into the ALP column.

    From the few published polls I’ve seen in marginal seats (especially Bennelong!) this election will not look like a repeat of 1998 where the ALP got smaller then average swings in the crucial marginal Coalition seats and bigger than average swings in it’s own seats. I think Possum did an excellent analysis a month ago from relatively detailed Newspoll quarterly polling in marginal and safe ALP and Coalition seats, showing the bigger than average swings to be in the safe and marginal Coalition

  11. Seems clear the Coalition is down from the 45 or so it seemed to have settled at in June/July/early August. Still reckon the 59-41 in Newspoll looks a bit wacky, but we’ll see. 57-43 headline usually means 48-39 or so with ACN.

    Scratching my head a tad as to why – is a 0.25% rate rise really that big a negative?

    A minor bonus of changing to Costello this week: the Coalition is odds on to see improvement in the next Newspoll whoever is the leader, so he’d get a ‘leadership bounce’ for sure.

  12. Adam,

    Two points about Howard’s statement concerning security: first, I am not convinced that the responsibility for high security in Sydney only rests with those you describe as anarcho-trot-ferals. Some security measures were no doubt aimed at them. But others, such as the flyovers, increased security at the airports, and the extraordinary surveillance on the harbour, suggests that your explanation is incomplete [any suggestion that these measures were mere shock and awe to discourage action by these groups does not stack up as they are the last group to be shocked into inaction by such tactics]. I suspect that the measures were meant to address at least two other issues: the prospect of a terrorist attack; and enforcing the notion that a terrorist attack was a seriously prospect.

    Second, it is always important to pay attention to what a master wordsmith like Howard says: “it’s the fault of those people who resort to violence in order disrupt gatherings of this kind”. That may mean protesters; it may mean terrorists; it may mean both. By such studied ambiguity Howard invites reaction and, in the face of an accusation he was referring to protesters, allows himself enough wriggle room to say – I did not say that at all.

  13. Leopold says
    the Coalition is odds on to see improvement in the next Newspoll whoever is the leader
    Would you care to nominate the “odds on”?
    i reckon Galaxy is your better bet, but so what? The interesting thing will be the primary votes!
    it doesn’t seem so long ago that 40% ALP was a dream!

  14. swampy… forgive me for being so bold, but I think the scare campaign that is currently being developed in brightly lit rooms, with colourful posters by the liberal party, is going to be as successful as their smear campaigns have to-date.

    If I can point back to the time that it all went bad for them, it was downers sneering smear… If that had happened one or two weeks out from the end of the campaign, this hysteria would have been intense, and would have shifted some voters. Now, that type of negative campaigning is going to be seen for what it is, and it’s all thanks to downer.

    I expect the polls to stay similar to what they are now until the election, or even worse for the government. It’s at times like this that some liberals should start consider what happened to the canadian conservatives in 1993.

    There is one way out of this for the conservatives in Australia, and that is through policy. And not just any policy, but bold policy in an area that is not already owned by the ALP. The IR debate is OVER… and is well and truly controlled by the ALP, not just amongst rusted-on ALP voters, but by almost all swing, and a good portion of rusted-on liberal voters as well. They’ve completely lost the middle ground.

    The only thing they have left is the fear-driven xenophobic policies of Pauline Hanson. As far as I can see it, it’s the only thing left that will at least stop the bleed of some of their voters to the ALP.

  15. Re (46)’

    John Rocket Says:
    September 9th, 2007 at 7:45 pm
    Just think of it as a favour for a fellow bombers supporter – next year huh?

    Except for your #1 ticket holder. There won’t be a next year for him lol (Costello for those who don’t know this piece of trivia)

  16. Adam (58) – my frustrated comment was not directed at the need for security, it was directed at the man who said those words. I’m tired of his rehtoric and the way he has to point things out that don’t need to be pointed out.

    What would I rather he’d done? I’d rather he’d just apologised for the inconvenience to Sydneysiders, thanked his police and defence force and then, even, thanked the protesters for being largely peaceful. Instead, he picks a rogue element somewhere, and deliberately makes them the focus. His style is to constantly point out the negatives, and that irks me no end.

  17. “Fear and smear isn’t going to start working when if it hasn’t worked so far.”

    Exactly Rob, the Strippergate smear was shooting the last bolt and look what good that did Downer. As for fear, what have they got left that hasn’t been tried?

  18. Leo, I guarantee the bounce back is a result of the Labor IR policy. It has been well received in middle Australia as striking the balance between workers and small business. It also is seen as many times over better than Workchoices.

  19. Swampy @ 59,

    There’s no need for self-flagellation – not now with all the recent polls showing the 2PP support now no less than 57 – 43 in the ALP’s favour, and with the betting markets shortening the ALP’s odds to below $1.50 and lengthening the Coalition’s odds closer to $3.00.

    The Libs are self-flagellating so much on the leadership of their party, that whoever leads it will feel the almighty backlash of the voters come election night (whenever that is). Of course any nasty, negative campaigning against the ALP from the panicked Libs will make the voter backlash even greater!

  20. The IR debate may be all but over, but an election against Howard is not about policy debates. For the last 3 years the ABCC has been collecting a huge volume of evidence against union members and their representatives in the building industry: witness Kevin Harkins and Joe McDonald. They have secretly recorded 100’s of hours of tapes and are poised to steadily release poisonous material during the election campaign.

    Get ready to see over the next 2 months the following headlines:
    “ALP candidate accused of duress”
    “ALP National Executive member charge with assault”
    “Key ALP backer [read any major union] accused of thuggery” etc etc etc
    “Howard says ALP must rid itself of thugs”
    “Rudd accused of protecting union bullies”
    “Rudd expels accused….”
    “Unions attack Rudd for weakness…”

  21. I agree with Grooski. WorkChoices is poison for the Coalition in the marginals, and all that was needed was a reassurance that Labor would not swing too far in the other direction for the punters to desert Howard in droves. Labor’s finely balanced policy, and the vocal attacks on it by union dinosaurs like Dean Mighell, did the trick. I’ve been saying it all year, and maybe people will now believe me: the Ruddster is an extraordinarily smart guy, and he will not be outsmarted, out-manoeuvred or wedged by anyone.

  22. Molotov,
    I reckon Howard’s Dylan inspiration is (or should be) “It’s all over now baby blue.”
    As for you Essendon supporters fantasising about next year, Daryl Kerrigan got it right: “tell ’em they’re dreamin’.”

  23. I think Glen must be busy renovating the bungalow for John and Janette. I suspect there won’t be a spare bed at the Costello’s.

  24. I think this week Howard should announce the precise date he intends to retire if re-elected. Say, Australia Day 2009, he has to tell voters exactly what they are going to get if they vote for the coalition.

  25. Geez Adam,
    I’m not sure who you think didn’t believe that Rudd was a “smart guy”: 60% of the population appear to have the same feeling.

  26. Adam, the Greens promise forcing Rudd “Back to the Future” (or past) on IR if they get the balance of power in the Senate. Is that their paelo-left element talking?

  27. Sorry Brian, you’re right. At least he won’t introduce a GST next term.

    And have a look at this:

    “The federal government has signed a funding deal worth nearly $1 billion for the Opel consortium to provide broadband internet to the bush despite an unresolved legal challenge from Telstra”.

    They snuck this one through as APEC closed.

    I’m not an expert on this stuff. Does this mean Labor would not be prevented from implementing its fibre-to-the-node broadband pledge? I presume the documents have been written so labor can’t renege on the Optus deal.

    I reckon this is a bit rough. On such an important issue as broadband, I would have like to have given the electorate the choice of two policies.

  28. jen, I don’t know. Maybe it’s just that 60% of the population think Rudd is a safe pair of hands. Being a ‘smart guy’ can actually work against you. I think aussies are just looking for a half-way decent alternative to Howard.

  29. Our Right Wing regulars are curiously absent. However, it must be hard for them. It’s hard for us on the Left to subdue our euphoria over these polls that have repeatedly pointed to a Labor landslide, and I know when the situation has been reversed, I haven’t liked it. Hats off to Glen (and others) for continuing to stick his head up, as rantish as is posts can be at times. No doubt he’ll pop up again before too long.

    But it’s reaching the point where there’s no positive spin in anything anymore for the government. The tide has run out for them quickly in the end. This time last year they were on course for a fifth triumph, now they are on the verge of an ignominious defeat. Such are the fortunes of politics.

    I am believer that in politics, as in life, things seem to change very slowly, then everything chages in a rush. Such seems to be the situation here. But in actual fact, the government (as does any government) has built up a lot of baggage over the years, all of which seems to be coalescing into a dark reckoning for Howard. A Perfect Storm, as one blogger put it earlier the year.

    And there’s nothing anyone can do now to change things.

  30. Despite Jen’s sarcasm, I think Adam is right: “the Ruddster is an extraordinarily smart guy”. Witness the statement yesterday that that “Mr Howard should be able to conduct (APEC) without the distraction of Costello supporters kicking up the leadership debate in the middle of a conference of world leaders.” The political virtues of that statement include:

    it kicks along the non-existent but destabilising leadership story;
    it allows Rudd to kick it along, but assigns the blame to Costello supporters;
    Rudd is telling Costello how to act when the world is watching: subtext -Rudd is a serious leader – he is the father to Costello’s petulant child;
    Neither Costello’s nor the PM’s supporters cannot respond by denying the story, as this would only fuel the story.

    Savvy political move all ’round.

  31. If Howard does as Shanahan suggests, announces the election date on Wednesday, but doesn’t visit the G.G. until Friday, I hope Rudd at least gets a chance to censure Howard one last time on the Thursday. You know, just for old time’s sake.

  32. Ichor at 67 and Antonio at 80, my thoughts exactly. Also, remember that Howards intention maybe somewhat different than that of his party “…I will lead the party as long as they want me…”


  33. At 58.25% TPP for Labor would mean my seat of Kooyong would end up Labor (based on Oz Politics calculator). For those who don’t know, Kooyong is Peacock’s and more importantly Menzie’s old seat. If there was ever ‘heartland’ it would be a seat like Kooyong. I doubt Labor would get it, as I bet the swing in Kooyong won’t be anywhere near the national average due to so much rusted on voters here, but it’s interesting to see. Mind you, I’ve never hear from Petro Georgiou, so Labor should have been putting up a big name person, as that would help their chances.

  34. If there is an announcement on Wednesday, but Parliament sits until Friday, any predictions on what bombshell will hit during the final days of the Parliament?

  35. My question is this – even with the polls the way they are – is 16 seats just too much? Isn’t even a landslide to labor still only a just past the post win? Curious to know what more experienced folk think.

  36. [At 58.25% TPP for Labor would mean my seat of Kooyong would end up Labor ]

    Maybe we should start predicting what the 2pp vote will be at the end of election night? I think 58 is out of this world, it won’t happen.

    I think the AC Nielsen poll is accurate, I think the vote is currently 57 / 43, but I just can’t imagine that being sustained until election day. I guess I’m just pesimistic.

    I think it will be 54.3, which is still huge given that Labor usually gets around 53 when it forms government.

  37. Brian Says:
    September 9th, 2007 at 9:08 pm
    BxTom John coward is not a legacy he can live with

    Brian, what are you saying?


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