ACNielsen: 57-43

Comments thread chat informs us that the headline result of an ACNielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets has been revealed by Laurie Oakes on the Channel Nine news. This has Labor’s lead two-party lead at 57-43 compared with 55-45 last month. More details as they come to hand. There is also reason to believe tomorrow’s edition of The West Australian will feature one of its small-sample Westpoll surveys of voting intention at the Poll Bludger’s end of the continent; if so, you will read about it here in the small hours of the morning EST.

UPDATE: Sydney Morning Herald report here, though no detail yet beyond that provided by Oakes.

UPDATE 2: Primary vote figures at the Sydney Morning Herald: Labor up from 44 per cent to 49 per cent, Coalition down from 41 per cent to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is up 8 per cent to equal its March high of 67 per cent, “pushing him ahead of the pre-election ratings achieved by Malcolm Fraser in 1975 and Bob Hawke in 1983”. Remarkably, the Prime Minister’s approval rating remains steady at a more than respectable 50 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

386 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  3. Hugo says:

    On theme music, I’m surprised that no one has mentioned Howard’s favourite singer Bob Dylan (lyrics notwithstanding), and his classic, “The Times They Are A’Changin’”.

    I did on the last thread at 205

  4. They are all in now – Galaxy, Newspoll, Morgan and Neilsen. And it’s all bad for the Howard government. It seems that there really has been a move toward Labor over the last fortnight. Election speculation is getting intense (not only here). It seems crazy to call an election so far behind, but the act of calling the election is the government’s last hope of changing the dynamic. I’m guessing that the election will be called by next weekend and we’ll be having the best election night of our lives (well, some of us) on either 27 October or 3 November. I’m guessing Howard will go for a longish campaign, to try and wear Rudd down.

    But it’s hard not to feel that the actual campaign will not just be the coup de grace of the coming meltdown.

  5. An interesting poll for the next cabinet meeting to discuss, 2 points ahead of the last one from this pollster.

    Noted also that Howard, Costello, Abbott, Downer, Hockey and Ruddock all came out today making clear statements that Mr Howard will definitely walk the plank as Leader for the election and he is their best chance of victory.

    So much for the ongoing speculation that Mr Howard will be tapped on the shoulder-guess they all realise it is too late for change now- but it sells newspapers and gives television news editors something to talk about.

  7. How long before we see Govt. members in marginal seats start to distance themselves from John Howard?

    The train wreck is gaining momentum, its every man and woman for themselves now.

    Having maintained my rage for so very long, I am going to enjoy parliament next week.

    I think Rudd is a Nambour Crusher’s supported, very apt. 🙂

  8. I notice in the SMH report that howard refused to answer whether he WOULD lead the coalition, but later said he INTENDED to.
    does this mean he doesn’t know whether a challenge is on, but if it is he means to fight it ( as Laurie oakes[I think] suggested)?
    Or am I too experienced to take anything he says at face value?

  9. Sorry Molotov (3) – was offline for a couple of days and there was a lot to get through. Must’ve missed yours. And yours was funnier – it’s all about the timing!

  11. ACN won’t make the government happy and Howards posturing on the APEC climate “deal” won’t cut it either with the electorate. Howards climate deal is bombing on the world stage, read the following. {And if the international world can see through his shenanigans, you can bet the Aussie electorate is smart enough to see through them too}

    (Sunday main editorial of the LA Times, the main newspaper in southern California)

    “Howard, who is fighting for his political life against a much greener opposition party leader, has the most at stake. Australia is suffering severe droughts and wildfires, and polls show that the environment is among Australians’ top concerns. His goal is to persuade the U.S., China and Russia — the world’s three biggest polluters — to sign an “aspirational” agreement for reducing greenhouse gases. For aspirational, read: voluntary, vague and useless for anything but padding a fading prime minister’s environmental resume. The heads of state are expected to sign the agreement today”

    http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-ed-sydney8sep08,0,649699.story?coll=la-opinion-leftrail

  14. The Chinster Says:
    September 9th, 2007 at 10:20 am
    Swampy @ 122 – I’m not sure whether you’re a constituent in Mayo, but Mary Brewerton is fast gaining a profile (and already has one in the northern end of the electorate where she is related to the local doctor). She is campaigning hard and I am going to stand with her at a street corner meeting this morning at the Gumeracha Town Hall – I’ll get back to you later on how she went. I’ve only met her a few times, but she comes across as smart, genuine and intelligent person. On top of that she has a very personable manner and I understand from others that the reception she receives at these meetings is always really good. She certainly comes across as a stark contrast, personality-wise, to Downer and that in itself might be a very positive thing for the Labor Party. Time will tell, as they say, but from what I hear others say, Mayo may be still be a seat of interest on election night.

    I am from mayo and my point is this: if Shuman couldn’t do it and Deegan couldn’t do it what chance has Brewerton got? I’ve seen her differently: nice but a poor public speaker and when i quized her on something she stared blanck. On the other hand i have been very impressed with the Greens candidate Lynton Vonow he’s very knowledgable and has been getting some publicity. Also history shows how unwilling Mayo is to vote Labor. The Chinster, she’s not the horse to back.

    Another point about Mary is she’s quite attractive. Labor seems to be doing this in a big way in SA, the Grey candidate is another pretty one as is kingston, Adelaide etc. They must have some polling that it helps alot here.

  15. I shall watch parliament with great interest this week.
    This Thursday could very well be Howard’s (and many Government MPs/Ministers) last ever Question Time.

  16. Regardless of the polls I don’t see Mayo falling, I think the only SA seats that will change are Kingston, Makin, Kingston with Boothsy and Stuart looking close maybe if all hell breaks out Grey but Lord Monsieur Alex de Downer of Mayo looks safe (merci)

  17. From the SMH article:

    “Could I say to the people of Sydney, I’m sorry that you’ve been inconvenienced. It’s not the fault of our visitors, it’s not the fault of either the NSW government or the federal government, it’s the fault of those people who resort to violence in order disrupt gatherings of this kind,” Mr Howard said.

    Does he always have to bloody demonise people? And blame shift? That’s perhaps the biggest thing I’ll be glad about when this guy is gone from our media. That and all of his crap policies and right wing agenda.

    It’s as if he has to create this mental image of some “bad people” out there trying to ruin it for the rest of us. I can’t stand it. Well at least it’ll be over in a few months, if not weeks. Can’t wait for that moment.

  21. Scotty,
    That is what I hate about Howard too! Moral high ground, no responsibility, no vision, no inclusion.

    I pray these are the last of his days and I look forward to watching him suffer greatly in defeat!

    Maybe then I can feel proud to be Australian.

  22. Yes James J (15) – I think we all might start to get a sense of fin de siecle. If the election pans out in the way it now seems certain to, we will be witnessing one of those perioditic clean-outs. Suddenly, all the faces will be new, and even staunch Labor supporters won’t be familiar with many ministers. We’ve seen the same faces in the big three roles (PM, Treasurer & Foreign Affairs) for over a decade, so I for one am looking forward to this change!

    But it will go further than that. A victory of the magnitude suggested by the polls would repudiate much of the Howard “vision” for Australia. That might seem harsh, but that’s what happened to Keating, who had noted that when you “change the government, you change the country”. I believe that was true – Australia is a different country today to the one I left uni (early 90s) into (some good, some bad). And if we, as appears possible, get, say 7-10 years of a Rudd government, the nation will be changed as a result. No doubt some good, some bad.

  23. [ this mental image of some “bad people” out there trying to ruin it ]

    Be prepared after the election for statements about how ungrateful we all are and how “bad people” in the media sabotaged Howard’s chances.

  24. Paul K makes me think back to 2004, when all the Lefties used terrible landuage towards their fellow Australians for voting Liberal, I for one will be in here on Election night looking for the “SORRY” word from all Lefties whom went on like spolit little siht

  25. But it will go further than that. A victory of the magnitude suggested by the polls would repudiate much of the Howard “vision” for Australia.
    Hugo 22

    Yes, I am kinda of torn between my natural dislike of huge parliamentary majorities, and wanting a clear rejection of the Howard thang.

  26. Just testing whether the hack of bmwofoz is as easy as using his yahoo account which was on his blog page. This comment – 24 – doesn’t seem like him. John Rocket.

  28. Whoever was asking their is certainly a Harold Holt Memorial Swimming Pool in Melbourne.

    Foir those looking for a suitable monument to Howard when he expires, How about, The John Howard Global Warming Centre, previously known as the crematorium.

  29. sorry about that bmwofoz but yeah – a funny little liberal fellow just did the simplest, most pointless thing …. Why do they bother?

  30. Alexander Downer gives his reasons why people should vote Liberal:

    “What are Liberal Party Pollies made of?
    Sugar and spice and all things nice,
    That’s what Liberal Party Pollies are made of.

    What are Ruddites made of?
    Slugs and snails and puppy-dogs’ tails,
    That’s what Ruddites are made of.”

  31. Scotty at 17.

    It is not only blame shifting by Howard to say that APEC security was due to the protestors, it is truly pathetic.

    Pathetic of Howard to think that Australians believe that the APEC security is because of protestors and pathetic to try and avoid and shift in that manner.

    Even Downer got in on the act.

    Downer had challenged Rice to a game at Sydney’s Rose Bay Golf Club, but said “It’s a pity, but the risk of protesters rushing out and assaulting her on the golf course is something that the police worry about so we’ll spare them the concern,” he added.

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=293715

    So poor Alex didn’t get a game of golf with Rice because of the risk from protestors.

    1. I don’t think Rice wanted to spend 5 hours on the golf course with Alex.
    2. Shouldn’t Alex have been trying to do something constructive at APEC.

    Don’t Howard and Downer realise the damage they are doing to our tourism image with their comments.
    APEC was to be about showcasing Sydney as a tourist and convention destination, but Howard and Downer have said that protestors are so scary we need 3 metre fencing 3,500 troops, 1,500 police, fighter planes circuling 24/7 and even this is not enough to gaurantee you an undisturbed round of golf.

  32. Very funny Johnny Rocket,

    First you say your a Liberal, well you have just ost the Liberal Party any hope what so ever of me voting for them. I’m curious to know how you did it!

  34. From the SMH article, Howard said that after hearing Australian artists at the Opera House, he was ‘stoked’ . Who’s feeding him these lines, Costello? I guess the artist wasn’t Midnight Oil.

    How can we dance when our earth is turning
    How do we sleep while our beds are burning
    Four wheels scare the cockatoos
    From Kintore East to Yuendemu
    The western desert lives and breathes
    In forty five degrees

  35. Another good poll result for the ALP. I still have a sinking feeling that the Coalition will be returned with a slim majority, but that’s just the pessimism in me. Still, I must say polls this side of 55% give me a lot more comfort than they would if they moved the other way.

    In other news, saw a terrible interview with Janet Albrechtsen on Sky yesterday (memo to Janet: ease up on the botox) where she was crowing on about how her concerns weren’t for John Howard but for the good of the Liberal Party.

    At that point I nearly threw a shoe at the tv. Here I was thinking that as a journalist what Janet must be after was what’s good for the country… but instead she wants what’s best for the Liberal Party?

    Don’t these people want any credibility at all?

  36. She’s fromt aht warrior class who say, “She who smirks and runs away. lives to write more columns for Rupert”.

  39. Yeah, that’s cool joni – I hadn’t even thought of the Howard the Duck analogy – despite all of the dead-lame-ducky talk this last week.

  41. I hated Janet’s column previous to the “Howard has to go” one. She railed against musicians and actors having a political voice and exercising it. They are all drug addicts who haven’t worked an honest day in there life and have low IQ’s. Where does she get this stuff from? She’s not a journalist. A journalist reports the facts to a reader and forms an opinion based on them. Janet just makes sweeping generalisations based on her opinion and then gives more opinion on top of it. She’s not a journalist. She’s a Liberal party stooge. As if nobody knew anyway.

    Rant over.

  42. William, John Rockett is claiming to have hacked my yahoo account and I think he is claiming number 24 wasn’t posted by me.

    while 26 and 27 were posted by him, I’m looking forward to him explaining how he allegally hacked yahoo or bigblog.

  43. “Maybe then I can feel proud to be Australian.”

    Indeed, Oldtimer. With an Oz foreign policy that is US foreign policy, just to take one issue, I’ve taken the view that in recent times to be a proud Aussie is to be a New Zealander in spirit. Now there’s a country with no terrorist threats on the agenda.

    [Yeah I know Kiwis “We’ve told you Aussies sux to tin times we will not be treated like some old beg of fush and chups.” :-)]

    Hopefully on foreign policy we can revert to, (like NZ almost always), non interference and no more neocon inspired invasions.

  45. Yeah, that comment at 24 was unlike any comment that bmwofoz had ever made (that I’ve read)… inverted political stance – plus – very bad spelling (not that I’m a pedant!). So I followed the link to bmwofoz’ blogspot – it had a email address – I used ‘bmwofoz’ and his email address and voila! I could make comments as bmwofoz – at 26 and 27. What great fun! (sarcastic) When the real bmwofoz comes back – he’ll probably be able to confirm that 24 was not him. The real bmwofoz should probably use a different email address to log on to pollbludger. Sorry if this has confused anyone in anyway. I tried to be transparent in the 26-27 and 29 postings.

  47. I wonder how the commentators will analyse the results of the election. Will they say that Labor’s victory was clear from the start of the year – and do so with a straight face? If you listen to prominent Liberals, they do not seem to know what is happening. Peter Costello felt it necessary to remind voters that once they voted they could not wake up Sunday and change their minds. Liberal supporters on the blogs don’t know anyone who has changed from Liberal to Labor and have no idea why such a “successful” government could be in danger, putting it down to opinion polls that can’t be right, the evil media and the socialist Marxist trendy teachers. They are about to start blaming the people for voting against them, which is what numbers on the Left have been doing for the last eleven years and which never gets the public back on side. Perhaps the Liberal Party’s backroom operators are mort realistic.

    I can’t see John Howard stepping down. Peter Costello is not that popular. There are some who would switch to him in preference to Mr Howard, but there are others who would switch to Mr Howard in preference to him. John Howard will fight to the end, as he has always done, and while the Liberals will treat him like they now treat Malcolm Fraser, he can look back on significant achievements, irrespective of whether you agree or not; e.g., the GST cemented in and IR changes which Labor is hardly going to touch,

    If John Howard can win from this far behind, it would be the greatest miracle ever in Australian politics.

    I think it was May when I first predicted a Labor win, but I thought it would involve a gain of 22 seats. It looks like I was being pessimistic, which is always a good approach because hope leads only to disappointment.

    Generic oracle,

    There are 27 countries in the world with a population below 21 million people and above 10 million people. Every one of those countries has at least three tiers of government. I have not looked at countries below 10 million to find the first one, in descending order of population, that does not have at least three tiers of government. Nor have I gone down the list of countries below one million square kilometres to find the first one that does not have at least three tiers of government. I may do so one day. Then again, I may take the dogs for a walk instead and see if those advocating abolishing a tier of government in Australia can come up with some examples.

    Tiny countries, like Singapore and Monaco do not. But the differences in size between us and them are extreme.

  48. That isn’t hacking that’s cut and paste,

    =========================
    Paul K makes me think back to 2004, when all the Lefties used terrible language towards their fellow Australians for voting Liberal, I for one will be in here on Election night looking for the “SORRY” word from all Lefties whom went on like spoilt little shit
    =========================

    There were three, I spelt Shit wrong to get around any swear filter.

  50. Another good poll for Labor. So it’s now:

    ACN 57-43
    Galaxy 57-43
    Newspoll 59-41
    Morgan f2f 60-40

    Mean: 58.25-41.75 LABOR LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!!

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