Idle Speculation: APEC edition

Stuck for a title for a new open thread, I thought I’d revive a beloved old brand name (royalties still owing to Adam Carr). You might like to discuss:

• The Australian statsmeister George Megalogenis‘s rundown on Mal Brough’s semi-rural Queensland seat of Longman. Megalogenis also elaborates upon his earlier identification of single mothers as an important demographic. The top 30 list for this group includes Wakefield (SA, Liberal 0.7%), Cowper (NSW, Nationals 6.5%), Lindsay (NSW, Liberal 2.9%), Dobell (NSW, Liberal 4.8%), Solomon (NT, CLP 2.9%), Page (NSW, Nationals 5.5%), Robertson (NSW, Liberal 6.9%), Kingston (SA, Liberal 0.1%) and Bass (Tas, Liberal 2.7%). Well down the order are Bennelong (number 119) and Wentworth (number 139).

Bowman MP Andrew Laming and Moreton MP Gary Hardgrave getting tetchy about the six months taken by the Australian Federal Police and Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions to resolve whether charges will be laid against them over the “printgate” affair (also of interest to Bonner MP Ross Vasta). The Courier-Mail ran an editorial criticising the AFP’s tardiness on this front way back on June 19.

• Still in Queensland, Possum Comitatus’s adventurous analysis of the safe Liberal (or is it?) Gold Coast seat of McPherson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

396 comments on “Idle Speculation: APEC edition”

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  1. Martin what a silly question. Of course they did! It’s very easy to understand. Coalition = good ALP = evil. Alternatively you could say, Right = good, Left = Evil

    Anything that doesn’t fit that bill then you just ignore it and erase it from your memory.

  2. What about Gun Control….[snip]…or East Timor…they are successes…

    I always find it amusing when people try to justify the legacy of ‘the most conservative leader of the Liberal Party’ in terms of his implementation of leftist causes.

  3. That’s a stupid question Martin and you know it the real question is how do you explain Labor’s economic management by getting into deficit and putting the Commonwealth into debt by 96b??

    I do not doubt that the ALP’s economic reforms supported by the Coalition were needed and on balance a good thing to do i agree…But how on earth can you defend going into deficit by so much…if Hawke and Keating had been able to manage/maintain our economy well enough throughout the 1980s then the recession in the early 1990s would have either been avoided or had minimal impact on Australia…

  4. Martin so i suppose restoring the economy back to health isnt a right wing cause…fiscal conservatism is what brought our country out of being a Banana Republic…the Coalition’s economic reforms/policies have been their greatest…balancing the budget…the GST…Waterfront…

    Also how is East Timor a leftist cause…i suppose Iraq is a leftist cause then is it lol.

  5. How dare that lame duck Bush interfere in Australian politics yet again!
    After today’s news coverage, Rudd’s ratings should have a healthy bounce.
    Despite the protestations of Glen, Bush is electoral poison.

  6. Glen who cares if the reforms were supported by the Coalition. You don’t get to take any credit for policies as an Opposition party.

    What do you think about the defecit of the Fraser Government? Irrelevant I suppose.

  7. Martin B, I refuse to compromise on bad usage, regardless of how long it’s been done.

    And while I’m being an unrepentant pedant, neither Howard nor Bush is a “lame duck”. Bush will be a lame duck after his successor is elected. Howard will never be one, our system doesn’t allow it (unless you equate caretaker mode with this).

    Mind you, exchange the “d” for an “f” and we’d be somewhere close top the truth on both of them. .

  8. Re (150)

    “Simple, direct question Glen.

    Did the Hawke/Keating government’s economic management cause the simultaneous recessions in the USA and the UK?”

    Hmm …. I was at uni in the USA from the years 1979 to 1982 (just so that I “date” myself). I always thought that the Reagan policies were to blame for the economic downfall and because the worlds economies are so interrelated these days that what started in the USA spread around the world like wild fire (much the way that the horse flu is moving now around NSW and QLD). The company my father worked for at that time was involved in industry and manufactering for the agricultural sector (tractors, farm implements and the like). The company began laying people off based upon senority soon after Reagan took office. Took 1 1/2 years and my father got his pink slip after 17 years with the same company. After several years of odd jobs and part time jobs, he was extremely fortunate to land a job in the car industry with GM [2 men accepted out of 690 interviews]. He stayed in that job until he retired about 15 years later.

    My two cents worth …. The problems of the 1980’s can NOT be laid on the doorstep of the Australian government of the day, they started in the USA. Actually, if you want to blame anyone about that mess, blame the Iranians. Had they not instigated the Iranian hostage situation with the 52 Americans, Carter likely might have won the 1980 election but we will never know. It was his handling, or more to the point, the lack of handling of the hostage situation that caused his downfall and brought Reagan in.

    Summarizing – Hawke and Keating were doing the best that they could with a situation that they neither started nor had any control over

  9. Enemy Combatant, BenC@51 and Asanque@56

    I can’t recall bomber’s odd in 2001. But I do recall that latham was trading around $2.4 prior to the campain start and slowly drifted out over the campain in the last week you could get over $3.

    Howard in now longer odds than Latham was at the same point of the election cycle.

    There’s an expectation that the gap will close towards election … but what if Rudd out campains Howard?

    The ALP have been holding back an aweful lot fire power. To work the military analogy a bit more – Rudd had managed to get to this point with only a few shot from the heavy artillery whislt the govt has been firing everything its got. So the ALP know the shape and form of the conservative attack but have yet to reveal their own scare campain.

  10. Glen: You show a complete lack of understanding of basic economics.
    Australian’s debt of $96 billion at that time was by no means large compared to other countries, including the US, Britain and Japan. In fact compared to those 3 countries, our debt was comparatively small.

    Its easy to repay debt when you sell assets. By selling assets at the expense of debt, we lose the revenue we would otherwise gain from maintaining control of the asset, and any future capital gain.

  11. Bush is only electoral poison in your opinion…and only because the liberal progressive media has made him out to look so terrible…i saw the media conference and Bush spoke well if not better than Howard… Bush had some pointed things to say about Mr. Rudd…that you simply couldn’t go around telling people they had to do this and that because they wont cooperate with you and will leave the table…Mr Bush is right and it just goes to show that on Climate Change Mr Rudd has made it into good politics but bad policy…

  12. Glen: Let me get this straight
    The media and Bush is not responsible for:
    1. Iraq debacle
    2. Katrina debacle
    3. Failure to ratify Kyoto
    4. Sale of nuclear matter to non-nuclear proliferation treaty members
    5. Illegal rendition
    6. Illegal wire taps
    7. Guantanemo Bay
    8. Illegal firing of public attorneys
    9. Revealing names of CIA operatives

    No wonder the Liberals and Conservatives are doing so badly. They can’t dig themselves up from the mire of denial and can only blame others. One can only hope that both parties suffer an extremely long time in opposition and learn their lessons, whilst we fix up the rest of their extremely poor policies.

  13. Asanque you are putting words in my mouth…Bush has been unfairly targeted by the media for obvious reasons they dont like his policy…i never said the media was responsible for Bush’s actions but that doesnt mean he has not been victimised by the media.

  14. Glen: He has been victimised in the media BECAUSE of his extremely BAD policies.

    There is no reason for the media to victimise Bush if he actually had GOOD policies.

  15. Left e #141

    If you’re worried about the Party, get to the nearest OZ embassy.

    I was in Paris for the ’83 election.. was that a wing ding! Not all lefties , but that made it all the better. A bunch of Fraser clones in the corner looking more and more morose, muttering “wait for WA”… & the condiments! French Champagne, & “meat pies”from the nearest patisserie which would make Four ‘n Twenty weep! Crowds of “tired and emotional ” Aussies on the Metro singing “Ädvance Australia” to tha amused amazement of all the frogs.

    I only wish Glen could have been there

  16. A good piece in the Age about the effect of WorkChoices on non-unionised workers in regional Australia, and the political consequences. I think he overstates his case in terms of the demise of the Nats, but in seats like Eden-Monaro, Cowper, Page, Hinkler, Gippsland, Flynn, Herbert, Gilmore, Paterson and Leichhardt, this could be the decisive factor.
    http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/nats-may-be-heading-to-the-wilderness-forever/2007/09/04/1188783231785.html

  17. Glen.
    You have basically called me a mindless incompetent moron because I am disabled. I demand an immidiate apology.
    If it is not forth coming, could you please ban him William, at least temporarily?

    I feel greatly insulted.

    Well I would be if it had been someone like Adam Carr instead.

  18. Hopefully the Metro will have Australians singing again with a massive world cup victory!!!!! I’m happy for the french to come in second.

  19. Glen – look at his ratings – Bush is electoral poison.
    70% of Australians are opposed to his policies.
    His domestic ratings are at record lows – the world is waiting for the next President so it can get on with rebuilding after Bush’s mess – if you want to continue deluding yourself, switch off your computer and switch on to Fox News – it’s the only place you’ll find someone to agree with you.

  20. East Timor. Uhh, Howard had to be dragged kicking and screaming by overwhelming and very strong public opinion into that one.

    “Actually Brough has been out there for years trying to get things done pity that Claire Martin tried to cover things up and then didnt act when it was necessary”
    Glen 96

    That is a bald faced and extremely offensive lie, Glen, even by your usual standards. Martin was pleading with Howard for help as late as last year. But he not only refused to help, he dismissed her out of hand and didn’t even accept there was a serious problem, despite the mountain of reports to the contrary going back decades. (They are all listed in the most recent one that kicked off this latest ’emergency intervention’ fiasco.)

    You have really sunk into the gutter with that outrageous smear.

    You owe Martin, and the NT government a grovelling apology. And you should be condemning Howard.

  21. Glen,
    the suggestion that Bush has been unfairly treated by the media is completely untrue. Have you missed the news over the last seven years? Next thing you’ll be telling us that polls can’t be trusted either – a touch of the Shanahans goin round i suspect.

  22. Re (173),

    “Glen – look at his ratings – Bush is electoral poison.
    70% of Australians are opposed to his policies.
    His domestic ratings are at record lows – the world is waiting for the next President so it can get on with rebuilding after Bush’s mess – if you want to continue deluding yourself, switch off your computer and switch on to Fox News – it’s the only place you’ll find someone to agree with you.”

    Yes, of the US news available on Foxtel Digital, Fox News is the one for the Libs to watch. The Labor crowd needs to tune into CNN if they want the left wing spin on the US news ;-D ……

  23. Ahhh, Julie – I wouldn’t be inclined to consider CNN left wing. Certainly, it’s nowhere near as biased as Fox, but part of the right-wing media approach to politics these days is to suggest that everyone but their favourites are biased in favour of the left – it’s a goalpost shift – you call everyone else biased to one side so that your own bias doesn’t seem as bad (at least that’s my take on it).
    I think these days, we all need to approach any news outlet with extreme scepticism – for great examples of shocking journalism and bias, I’d highly recomend people have a squiz at http://www.mediamatters.org – they’ll go after anyone….Fox (of course), CNN, MSNBC, National Public Radio, major commmercial networks…..very interesting stuff.
    If we had a similarly effective group here in Aus, I suspect that many News Limited heads would explode.

  24. [Simon

    The Governor-General is President of the Executive Council and Commander-in-Chief of the Australian Defence Forces]

    Sure, but I never saw Bill Hayden or William Dean dress up in military gear. It doesn’t seem to be a requirement, he seems to do it to make himself look more important than he really is.

  25. [“Glen – look at his ratings – Bush is electoral poison.
    70% of Australians are opposed to his policies.]

    Which is exactly the same as what U.S. voters think of him, his approval rating is around 30%. It is funny that our opinion of him is essentially the same.

  26. Thanks whoever it was that clued us into the fact that Keating was going to be on Sky News at 4:15 :):) … It was a beauty to watch and I enjoyed every minute of it.

    Classic Keating line on Howards realationship with China –

    “Howard has competently managed the relationship with China but not ambitiously managed it. But any donkey would be able to competently manage a relationship with China”

  27. LLLAlalalalalalalalalalalalala – fingers in my ears (or should that be eyes?) – trying to wait for the Keating bit til later….lalallalalalalalalalalalalala.

  28. Simon (182),

    If you go to their website and click on the politics subheader, they have podcasts available for the Agenda show. You will be able to get the audio of it here but I don’t know how quickly it will be posted up there.

  29. Didn’t Michael Moore call Bush “the fictional president”? LOL
    Glen, have you signed up to the “Aussies For ANZUS” group? I think you’d be right at home there with your fellow Howard/Bush lovers.

  30. Bert

    When have i ever said that anybody that is disabled is an incompetent moron??? I have said consistently that people on welfare for disability reasons deserve assistance from the Commonwealth…but i dont see what’s wrong with encouraging people to engage with society by getting a job be it part time, casual or whatever…look i dont like dole bludgers when it comes to welfare but when it comes to people on welfare for disability reasons they deserve greater assistance from the Commonwealth…i think you arent reading what ive said carefully at all…

    I actually take offence that you would make such a bald face lie about me and say i think people who are disabled are incompetent morons have you no decency sir!

    While CNN likes to be portrayed by the right as a left wing news channel…the Democrats in the USA are actually more conservative than the ALP in Australia thus CNN should still be considered a ‘centre’ media organisation whilst Fox is for the rednecks…

    November 3 poll seems to be the most likely….

  31. The GG is nominal CinC of the ADF, but that is not a military post – civilian GGs do not get to wear a uniform. Jeffery as a retired ADF officer is entitled to wear his uniform and medals on formal occasions if he feels like it, but it has nothing to do with his nominal position of CinC. Peronally I think he should wear his medals but not his uniform, since GG is a civil position, but there are no rules about it.

  32. [Glen, have you signed up to the “Aussies For ANZUS” group? I think you’d be right at home there with your fellow Howard/Bush lovers.]

    Those guys ( http://aussies4anzus.com/ ) are total nutters. I don’t know why Lateline keeps putting a camera in front of the leader’s face. They have done so on Monday and Tuesday, hopefully they are nowhere to be seen tonight.

    The webpage contains inaccuracies, such as giving the U.S. sole credit for the invention of radio. I think Marconi, Tesla and Hertz would have something to say about that.

    I conceed that some members of the Left are anti-American, but I don’t conceed that disliking President Bush, and in particular his policies automatically makes someone anti-American. Maybe they are pro-American, because they think the U.S. could have a much better leader?

    I support ANZUS, but I don’t think that forces me, or anyone else, to support every policy that U.S. administration embraces. Just as ANZUS shouldn’t force U.S. politicians to support everything Australia does. Bush and Howard seem to have extremely different views on immigration for example.

  33. [While CNN likes to be portrayed by the right as a left wing news channel…the Democrats in the USA are actually more conservative than the ALP]

    This is open to debate. I think Keating and Clinton, for example, had extremly similar views on most issues.

    [Peronally I think he should wear his medals but not his uniform, since GG is a civil position, but there are no rules about it.]

    I think there should be rules, he looked stupid. We aren’t ruled by a military junta. There was something too President Musharraf about it for my liking.

  34. Nov 3 probably won’t be the date of the election, since it’s just before Melb cub and a fair number of Victorians (both left and right wing) will take the Monday off and make a long weekend and go travel. this would risk pissing people off, as well as requiring a higher than expected postal/absentee vote. Though it is the last date before a possibly embarrassing RBA rate rise just before polling day. Also Oct 20 is another date sprouted around because inflation rates are announced in the week following and economist will be out there saying there might or might not be another rate rise. Nov 10 risks a rate rise, but might be a better option than Nov 3.

  35. Glen the problem with welfare to work is that it transferred many people from a disability support pension to newstart.

    This meant they lost money, lost the limited benefits of holding a pension card and suddenly had to engage with the job network.

    This lost Howard thousands of votes, just another instance of mean and nasty social policy.

  36. I must concede Simon that they sounded a little too in favour of the Alliance and Mr Bush…they are about as scary as the Green Left and Socialist Alliance on your side of politics…God even I could have done a better job then their media spokesperson…

    I think it is fair to say that the ALP has more anti-americans than the Coalition has and im speaking on fact but look…the ANZUS alliance is very important we need it for the defence of Australia and it is an insurance policy whether you like it or not…if we shunned the US in every step of the way we’ll end up like New Zealand…no special benefits no alliance and no cooperation…ANZUS should for the US and Australians to work together cooperatively in the region especially on regional defence…

    I agree with you that ANZUS shouldnt forces you, or anyone else, to support every policy that U.S. administration embraces…and it obviously doesnt or you would support US foreign policy which you dont…atm.

    There is such a thing as being an ally when it suits you or when it suits your friend…no whether you like it or not we are a small country by being close to the US we get alot of benefits and clout in our region as well as fringe benefits like the military pact signed today…if we are to follow the Rudd line and only support the US when it only directly concerns us and our region…the US will not look as favourably on our relationship as they otherwise might.

  37. Re (194),

    “if we shunned the US in every step of the way we’ll end up like New Zealand…no special benefits no alliance and no cooperation…”

    Don’t think this is correct. Isn’t Helen Clark here for APEC? That is an alliance that last time I looked and think that the 22 world leaders here this week would all think so to. I mean if Clark isn’t here, someone correct me if I am wrong

  38. Glen, for the sake of the clarity of your arguments drop anti-american and replace it with anti-bush. While I concede there are some anti-americans, it usually is political/culturally distinct. People bag red states like Texas. But who hates Massachusetts for example?

    I know its fun to wrap bush critics in anti-americanism but it does simplify debate to a very low level.

  39. Julie New Zealand is in the ANZUS alliance only in name because they refused entry to US nuclear powered warships…

    Nath last time i checked Bush was the President of America…thus as the representative and head of state of the country your attacks on him reflect on the nation as a whole…

  40. There is a difference between Anti-US and Anti-Bush.

    However, you often see rabid conservatives equate them all in the same convenient misnomer. Just like “You are with us or against us”.

    Its stupid stupid stupid.

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