Stuck for a title for a new open thread, I thought I’d revive a beloved old brand name (royalties still owing to Adam Carr). You might like to discuss:
• The Australian statsmeister George Megalogenis‘s rundown on Mal Brough’s semi-rural Queensland seat of Longman. Megalogenis also elaborates upon his earlier identification of single mothers as an important demographic. The top 30 list for this group includes Wakefield (SA, Liberal 0.7%), Cowper (NSW, Nationals 6.5%), Lindsay (NSW, Liberal 2.9%), Dobell (NSW, Liberal 4.8%), Solomon (NT, CLP 2.9%), Page (NSW, Nationals 5.5%), Robertson (NSW, Liberal 6.9%), Kingston (SA, Liberal 0.1%) and Bass (Tas, Liberal 2.7%). Well down the order are Bennelong (number 119) and Wentworth (number 139).
• Bowman MP Andrew Laming and Moreton MP Gary Hardgrave getting tetchy about the six months taken by the Australian Federal Police and Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions to resolve whether charges will be laid against them over the “printgate” affair (also of interest to Bonner MP Ross Vasta). The Courier-Mail ran an editorial criticising the AFP’s tardiness on this front way back on June 19.
• Still in Queensland, Possum Comitatus’s adventurous analysis of the safe Liberal (or is it?) Gold Coast seat of McPherson.
The future fund is a con; and a transparent con. It is also bad policy.
I am not saying Timor Leste’ did not require some leadership I’m just saying much of the problem they have now was caused by us needing to rush out early because we didn’t have enough troops for Iraq and our very near neighbour.
Afghanistan is heading back where it was before we rescued them, again because of the stupid Iraq misadventure.
It is wonderful to see even a partisan with a blind spot for anything smelling like a flaw can’t draw up a better list than that from 11 years.
Oh and the GST has kept me in nicely paying employment.
CTEP
I would like Kevin Rudd to tell us where he’s going to get the 2.5b he now cant get since the FF will be a completely locked box!
Iraq we wont know is a success until many years have passed check the history books in 30 years and see what they say…
Would you call our dental system a success of this government?
– Well health is a responsibility of the States so i wont go into State bashing on this topic but there you go
How about pharmaceutical costs?
Ha they’ve been sustainable and havent risen too high in recent years…
What about skills in the workforce?
28 Technical Colleges have been introduced plus tax benefits and greater incentives for hiring apprentices
Would you call the stripping away of conditions of our workers a success of this Government?
No but Howard didnt do this some businesses have done this though not many have so i dont see it as a major problem…also how about the 17.9% rise in real wages that’s something to be proud of Mr Howard…Mr Keating reduced our real wages by 1.1% and was happy about it…
How about cutting off people’s welfare payments?
Bah if they got out and got a job they wouldnt be in their situations welfare is not meant for people to bludge on if they can work they should and Howard has made it possible to get a job with a flexible IR system
The increased costs of university education?
Meh these things happen you want a quality education it’ll cost you…user pays is the way to go and John Howard has ensured young students wont have to pay hundreds of dollars to join a Union thankyou VSU.
Pensions?
What is Labor policy on this i am unaware of Howard’s policy on Pensions so i cant comment.
457 visas?
Most people on 457 visas get paid extremely well i dont see the problem with them…
How about reform to the accountability processes in the Senate?
Thats not our fault if Labor couldnt hold on with the minor parties too bad it was about time Howard got a chance to do what he’s been on about since 1996…democracy finally got a run thanks to Howard’s majority…
Levels of foreign aid?
Increased under Howard look at East Timor, RAMSI, Iraq and Afghanistan that’s alot of foreign aid!
Childcare arrangements?
More tax incentives and increases to Family Tax Benefits to counter the costs of childcare..
Shanahan is getting absolutely massacred in his blog.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/polling_accuracy_a_matter_of_opinion/P25/
This amuses me.
#70 Stunkrat, I seem to remember someone else on this blog commenting on the supposed misuse of the verb `to decimate`.
The meaning of many words currently used in English has changed over time, (terrific is another well-known example). Acording to the Australian Oxford Dictionary
`The earliest sense of decimate, kill one in every ten of, has been more or less entirely superseded by the more general sense, kill or destroy a large proportion of`
i think Martin B had it right.
In 30 years time, the history books will say Iraq was the worst foreign policy debacle since Vietnam. And the three leaders of this illegal invasion Bush, Blair and Howard all stepped down or were comprehensively voted out as a consequence.
Glen those are some extremely shallow arguments there. Flimsy, and some of them not very honest.
You’re just quoting from Liberal Party media releases and not going to real life situations.
Are you seroiusly saying that you can’t see the Coalition has mismanaged any of those issues?
How about opening your mind a bit to some of the criticism of those policy areas and studying up on it a bit.
Glen wrote (and I think he was serious): “…tell that to the Iraqis and Afghanis who need our help and want the kind of lives we have in Australia…to live in safety and security with economic benefits.”
Yes, Iraq is a beacon of democracy with a prosperous and burgeoning economy. All Iraqis wake up everyday and thank Allah for the safety and security and economic benefits that the war has brought them. Other Middle Eastern countries are clamoring to be invaded.
Screw the Sunshine Coast – I think I’ll take a holiday in Iraq!
“Actually Brough has been out there for years trying to get things done ”
In January 2006 he became Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, how is that trying for years Glen?
What has he done for Families and Community Services?
Oh I can’t resist the technical colleges came up. It has to rate up there with one of the very stupidest non-Iraq decisions in 11 years. To duplicate existing state services for purely political purposes and to do it badly is as stupid as it is disgusting. Education failures such as this is one of the bucketfull of reasons Australia needs to dump Howard.
In 30 years time how bad will the world be if we are defeated in Iraq Asanque i’d hate to see what kind of a world it would be you obviously have no concerns about global terrorism after a defeat in Iraq perhaps you should consider how the lives of ordinary Iraqis will be if we leave too soon…have you no empathy!
OK, most here agree that Howard has done a good job with the economy.
I couldn’t care either way.
What does it do exactly? Make a better quality of life, by making everything more expensive.
Thus those of us who have no hope of a job can only look forward to living at home with their parents, with barely any money or comforts.
Please tell me how this is supposed to make me happy.
Glen… the have you no empathy comment comes as a bit much when you said in #102:
“How about cutting off people’s welfare payments?
Bah if they got out and got a job they wouldnt be in their situations welfare is not meant for people to bludge on if they can work they should and Howard has made it possible to get a job with a flexible IR system”
Without taking into account the numbers of people who have had their disability welfare payments cut because their disabilities are so bad they cannot work.
The beacon of empathy you are… and you’re meant to be a ‘wet’ Liberal Party supporter. Pretty scary really.
I have huge concerns about global terrorism, which was why I was so against the Iraq war in the first place.
The entire Iraq debacle is the fault of Howard and Bush’s illegal invasion of Iraq without UN sanction.
No point throwing blame out now if the invasion has caused a no win scenario. The average Iraqi is far worse off now then before the invasion. Excuse me if I choose not to take blame for a mess caused by Howard and Bush.
The Brits are withdrawing half their troops, the surge has had no effect whatsoever (see the Government Gazette today), and our token contribution means nothing.
We’ve all said our piece about Iraq – no more please.
No worries William 🙂
However, given the thread title is APEC edition and Bush and Howard are discussing Iraq during APEC, one would have suspected this would be on-topic?
William, sorry. I’ll try to keep comments purely on the polls/topic from now on… avoid the temptation!
“In 30 years time how bad will the world be if we are defeated in Iraq”
We’re already defeated, Glen. It’s sad but true. The best we can hope for is that a pro-Western strongman takes over who can unite the country – something like an Iraqi Mubarak. Or else, an Iranian-backed strongman in Iraq might work too, as long as he doesn’t hate the West too much. The Iranians don’t like al Qaeda either (they have other terrorists they prefer to support), so it’s actually not such a bad option (as compared to, say, bloody civil war). A third option is partition, with Sunni and Shiite and Kurd sectors, and the US and its allies establishing a presence in an autonomous Kurdsitan.
“perhaps you should consider how the lives of ordinary Iraqis will be if we leave too soon…have you no empathy!”
Yeah, cause right now Iraq is a picnic. Many Iraqis have voted with their feet and left the country.
CTEP
I said that anybody who can work should work and if they cant sure they should get welfare support so i dont see why that’s not having empathy with the disabled who clearly in many cases cannot work and so require welfare…
Shanahan’s article questions the value of polling – therefore throwing into doubt the business model of Newspoll, which is owned by News Ltd. WTF?!
Re (94),
Asanque Says:
September 5th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
“Glen: if Howard didn’t sell off so much infrastructure, then the government would have future revenue to fund the liabilities.”
A problem with right wingers everywhere >;-( ……. Take Victoria for example. I lived there for 2 years in the inner city west prior to moving to SW Sydney. Public transport in Melbourne. Privatized by Kennett. Prior to that, you didn’t have any problems using public transport. Try finding a train running on time after that, it is still a problem now years after Kennett.
Well, Crikey’s just tipped Nov 3 – but the punters are very lukewarm on that date ($7.50). Oct 37, Nov 10 still faves.
Any idea why punters aren’t keen?
Might be some money in it for informed tipplers!
erm, Oct 27.
Odds on 37 are pretty steep.
Any link for that Lefty E?
Glen, last comment on it as it’s not strictly related to the polls.
My point was that people with serious disabilities are getting their welfare cut because doctors are pushed to say that they are able to work. They are forced to go to TAFE for skills, leaving them to feel inadequate when they can’t do it. Others live in fear that a doctor, tasked by Centrelink, will find them able to work and they’ll get their measley payments, which they can barely get by on, taken away from them.
You refuse to see that the way this Government treats welfare is without a social conscience. The only new money they’ve put in is to fund systems to catch “cheats” out. We’re meant to be in economic good times, so surely that should be flowing on to the most disadvantaged.
Anyhow as I said, last comment.
Sorry, let me update/ correct all of that.
10/17/24 November are currently better odds than Nov 3; which is at 5.75.
Facvourite is Nov 10 at 4.0
Oct 27 has slipped behind all November dates
Explanations?
Punters have no clue?
Re (99)
“Indigenous affairs has been shockingly handled by both parties.”
EXACTLY why Rudd needs to move Peter into that portfolio (no matter if he wins the election or not), get someone in there who understands it for a change …. way too often, that portfolio is given to someone as a second thought.
“Ok, lets dish out portfolios folks. John Smith must get the treasurer spot, Susie Jones needs to be my foreign minister, …….. oh, only Bob Wilson is left and Aboriginal Affairs is all I have left so Bob can do that job.”
Nice if the next PM gets it right for a change 🙂
sportingbet.com.au and follow the links to “decider” Asanque
Knock yourself out on disability welfare. My problem with Iraq is not so much that it was off-topic, but that it was clearly headed for a brawl that would have generated a lot of heat and no light. I’m no more keen on a discussion that is “strictly related to the polls”.
Lefty E
I am sure John Howard would love an election on Oct 37th 😉
The relevant bit of Crikey reads: “The election date will be Nov 3. This is based upon the bookings made with Australia Post for mass mailots by the coalition – including in Bennelong. The Coalition recently cancelled their November mailouts and have maintained October ones.” Though I personally do not get too excited about this type of rumour.
Thanks Lefty E.
Sorry, I meant any links to that Crikey prediction thanks 🙂
Crystal Clear William, thanks 🙂
Perhaps they are hoping for a massive re-alignment in the polls after APEC…unlikely though for an October poll or they are going for a December poll…i think probably the later is Howard’s choice why on earth would you call a poll when you are 18 points down he’s not that stupid lol.
The problem with welfare to work is that Howard changed the rules, people found that they legally qualified for a DSP but suddenly they were now on Newstart and on a lower payment.
This is because of the change in the hours capable of being worked was changed. Why kick people off DSP? why not just assist them to find work if that is what is required?
Glen you obviously haven’t got the memo. The polls aren’t right since they didn’t factor in the “I only have a mobile phone and not a landline” vote.
Therefore Howard could have an election right now and easily win.
There must be some pretty strong hints coming about a Nov interest rate hike…
Ah, right. Well, here it is verbatim. I assume Crikey wont mind!
8. Tips and rumours
The election date will be Nov 3. This is based upon the bookings made with Australia Post for mass mailots by the coalition – including in Bennelong. The Coalition recently cancelled their November mailouts and have maintained October ones.
The strong hint was the GDP growth figure.
After Howard`s commitment to an election well before Christmas, any date in December looks pretty unlikely for mine.
I dont think much of Crikey’s rumours either William.
Im just a bit stressed about the date – have to go OS for work on Nov 1.
Go late Johnny! Erm, you know Ive always been a big fan… n that.
[Im just a bit stressed about the date – have to go OS for work on Nov 1.]
As soon as the election is called apply for a pre-poll ballot. AEC webpage would probably have application forms.
Thanks Simon – but I’m talking about the election night party! Cant miss this one!
re Glen – Howard going late as he’s not stupid.
It might not be so stupid to go earlier rather than later. If the message is that Howard is on top of the situation then he’ll need to be the one picking the date, not the media or Opposition. If he starts to leave it late there’ll be a cry of ‘chicken’ from a few quarters, and that could gain momentum – then he’d have a really hard time pulling back the polls. IMHO I would be looking at early November for that reason, within the normal timeframe for Howard (between October 9 and November 10 over the past 3 elections).
Bring on fixed federal election dates I say…
[Thanks Simon – but I’m talking about the election night party! Cant miss this one!]
Just go somewhere that has internet, stream NewsRadio, and you’re set.
Poor old Dennis. It may be that the latest polls from Galaxy, Morgan ph and Newspoll, that have swung dramatically to Labor, do reflect some soft former Coalition voters who have temporarily gone to Labor, and will go back to the Coalition before the election. However, that would still leave Labor with about a 55% 2PP, easily enough for a very big win. Personally, I think Rudd will win the campaign, thus driving up Labor’s vote even more.
On Dennis’ other point about past Lib/Nat govts not losing in huge landslides, even though Fraser had wrecked the economy, and McMahon was seen as a clown: I think that there is a bigger proportion of swingers than in past elections, and that the hard-core Labor vote is now higher than the hard-core Lib/Nat vote. This is reflected by the Huge Labor landslides in recent times in NSW, QLD, VIC and SA, when Labor got 56%+ 2PP. Even with Latham as Labor leader, Howard only got 52.7% 2PP.
Does anyone know why the Govenor General still wears all his military regalia? Didn’t he retire from the military before becoming G.G.?
Sportingbet’s view on WA.
Sportingbet Australia commenced electorate betting seven weeks ago. In that time, the percentage of money that’s been wagered on Western Australian seats is 18%!
“This shows huge punter interest in these seats, given the population of Western Australia is roughly 10% and the fact that Sportingbet Australia is currently betting on just the five most marginal WA electorates so far”, said Michael Sullivan, Sportingbet Australia CEO.
As Electorate betting continues to grow in popularity, the seats in Western Australia have commanded plenty of attention. The ALP candidate in Hasluck has been supported heavily, including a bet of $10,000. Her price has shortened from $1.85 to $1.48 in the past six weeks.
The ALP has also dominated the betting in their electorates of Cowan, Swan and Brand.
If there’s a flicker of hope for the Government, it would be the notoriously marginal seat of Stirling, which has seen punters unable to pick a clear winner. Either party could win this seat, with the ALP candidate returning $1.70 (in from $2.00 three weeks ago) and the sitting MP now at $2.10 (out from $1.80 three weeks ago) – this is certainly not a lost cause for the Coalition. Both candidates have been supported by punters with bets as big as $5,000. 🙂
Simon
The Governor-General is President of the Executive Council and Commander-in-Chief of the Australian Defence Forces
Re (142),
“If he starts to leave it late there’ll be a cry of ‘chicken’ from a few quarters, and that could gain momentum – then he’d have a really hard time pulling back the polls.”
that horse is already out of the barn and 10 k down the street ;-D …..
I am aware of the original meaning of decimation Stunkrat.
I am also aware that it has been used in the more general sense since the 17th century 🙂
Simple, direct question Glen.
Did the Hawke/Keating government’s economic management cause the simultaneous recessions in the USA and the UK?