Burson-Marsteller: minds made up

Not entirely sure what to make of this, but I have received a media release giving results from a Burson-Marsteller survey of 1156 voters conducted on Friday. Respondents were asked if they had firmly decided who they will vote for, to which 77 per cent answered yes. Of that 77 per cent, 56 per cent said they would vote Labor and only 34 per cent would vote Coalition. For the purposes of tying up loose ends, I also note reports on the weekend that an IPSOS Mackay poll indicated that Labor had taken a lead on the question of who would better manage the economy, by 39 per cent to 36 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

166 comments on “Burson-Marsteller: minds made up”

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  1. [well except for laughing at him losing when the economy was going so well and being beaten by someone who had the least amount of leadership experience and pumped a Prime Minister of 11 years]

    Doesn’t this just emphasise how completely out of puff he is politically? No one believes him anymore. I can remember Howard saying that to Keating in the 1996 debate. Howard literally said to Keating “the Australian people don’t believe you anymore.” And after Keating had been in government for 13 years, Howard was right.

    Now the tables have turned.

  2. Why would Costello help Howard out knowing that he too will retire after losing the election? No point.

    Also Howard retiring puts focus on the remaining talent of the party which is a bit disreputable. Abbott, Coonan, Andrews, Downer, Minchin are all political negatives.

    Costello is unpopular and has a presentation style that puts off half people . Turnbull is the same [but more popular] and couldnt hack it.

    The Govt will look very shallow without Howard at the front. You will end up with two new contenders, Labor and Liberal. One already discredited and without ideas the other having just spent 8 months proving itself and proactive and impressing the public.

    They have no chance of wining with anybody else. Howard might keep some of the loyalists from jumping ship.

  4. [‘Schumer added that, “no one thought Alberto Gonzales was up to the job” saying that “we need someone who will put rule of law first.” ‘]

    Change Alberto Gonzales to Phillip Ruddock and you have a parallel.

  5. [Abbott, Coonan, Andrews, Downer, Minchin are all political negatives.]

    Isn’t it interesting that they are all from the Right?

  6. Kina if Rudd can beat a Prime Minister of 11 years with a good economic record…honestly how bad could Turnbull do against a one termer?

  8. Oh, and thanks Frank. I’ll have a look. Glad to know someone else is clued on this stuff.

    Someone else, somewhere this site, hinted darkly at Howard. ‘Barbara’ was mentioned.

    My sources have long suggested a certain Beryl of Belconnen. Libraries.

    Any clues, Glenn Milne? Far be it for me to rake dirt.

  10. [Kina if Rudd can beat a Prime Minister of 11 years with a good economic record…honestly how bad could Turnbull do against a one termer?]

    The first opposition leader after a change of government never wins. If they make it Turnbull, he would only be sacrificing himself for whoever ultimatley becomes P.M.

  12. I dunno Possum, to my mind Rudd seemed to be doing best between parliamentary sittings, when he can do his stunts for the media without having to front up to Costello’s diatribes in parliament later that day, necessitating Rudd having to pretend he is needed outside the chamber or to turn his back to Costello.

    No parliament seems to suit Rudd well, and it may be that a spring carnival is what the coalition needs to starve Rudd of news coverage for his stunts.

    News coverage for the coalition seems to be a moot point, as noone is listening anyway, so perhaps the best answer is to fix it so noone listens to Rudd either 😉

  13. I only ask because it’s going to be quite expensive building an exact replica of Kirribilli House for Janette…
    Adam 75

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha…

    And where are they going to get the money for that kind of location?

  14. Simon a leader of the Opposition with as little leadership experience as Rudd and a long-term PM with a sound economy aren’t suppose to win elections…if Rudd wins he’ll have broken the mould as far as im concerned anything is possible…

  15. What amazes me about Howard [and his supporters] is that there seems to be a refusal to accept the inevitable… defeat.

    As an occasional visitor to Australia and an avid Australophile [if that’s the name for it] I have taken an interest in Australian politics from a neutral point-of-view. I have read the articles and comments on this site with great interest, together with postings on Mumble, Possum Politics and Crikey!

    In Britain, the BBC has pretty much ignored, as always, Australian Federal Elections. We are always bombarded with US Presidential Elections evert 4 years and bored with French Presidential Elections. From an overseas perspective the Beeb has saw fit to report on Howard in Bali, Strippergate, AWB kickbacks scandal and the Liberal Party editing Wikipedia entries, but nothing much else – certainly nothing of any substance.

    The only way that Howard and Company will survive will be if they are fortunate enough to be “blessed” with another Tampa incident. So watch out for a “manufactured threat” to the Commonwealth from within [such as one of the statel Labor Governments threatening secession or Labor-backed animal rights campaigners responsible for outbreak of equine influenza] or threat from without [Indonesian navy fires on Australian naval vessels in fishing incident].

    For what it’s worth [and I did say I have a neutral perspective] I reckon the Coalition are heading for a meltdown from which it will take them a good deal to recover. There are so many parallels to the British General Election in 1997 which resulted in the Labour Party returning to power after 18 years and the Conservatives losing around 50% of their MPs on a swing of 10%.

    Keep up the good work everyone – this site is informative, entertaining and shows how seriously [some] Aussies take their politics.

  16. “Oh, I am wrong, I have of course seen Howard many times from the Reps gallery. And I stood behind him in the queue at the Parliament House coffeeshop once.”
    Adam 100

    So do tell, how tall is he really?

  17. [Kennett. Beattie. Bannon. Rann.]

    I should’ve qualified by saying I was only refering to the Federal level.

    [Simon a leader of the Opposition with as little leadership experience as Rudd and a long-term PM with a sound economy aren’t suppose to win elections…if Rudd wins he’ll have broken the mould as far as im concerned anything is possible…]

    What about Hawke? He only had 3 years as shadow I.R. before they let him take over.

    In fact, I don’t think Rudd’s policies are that different to what Beazley’s would’ve been. I just think voters think Rudd is electable, whereas Beazley wasn’t.

    The Australian and Sky News are running some kind of a focus group with an American pollster. Does this mean you use your Foxtel remote control to answer interactively? (I don’t have Foxtel)

    http://media.theaustralian.com.au/projects/voters/voter.html

  21. I could look down on his bald pate.

    I was a bit surprised at the lack of internal security in Parliament House when I worked there. You need to go through all sorts of screening to get into the building, but once you’re in you can wander around most places, and ministers including Howard mix with the throng in the public spaces and dining areas. I could have assassinated him several times if I’d remembered to take my samurai sword to lunch.

  23. Glen, you’re repeating yourself. The public have decided that Rudd is an acceptable alternative PM, lack of experience or not. Get over it. Anyway, being PM is not rocket surgery, you know. You appoint ministers, you chair Cabinet, you make speeches. Big deal. Some very ordinary people have done it quite successfully.

  24. Paul k – the headline might sound good for Howard but a quick glance at the opening sentences quickly makes the attack, hardly good for Howard.

    “JOHN Howard says things about Kevin Rudd that George W.Bush would never even think of saying about his Democratic opponents, says American conservative academic and pollster Frank Luntz.

    In fact, Mr Luntz finds the Prime Minister’s rhetoric so aggressive, he rates him as a world leader for invective.

    “He is using the most blunt terminology that I have ever seen a leader use,” Mr Luntz told The Australian yesterday. “Howard is almost Nixonian.”

  25. ” Alberto Gonzales resigns. ”

    George may be preoccupied when he arrives. There’ll probably be lots of media questions about the Lame Duck President. Just what Howard needs. Photos in the press of a Lame Duck President with a Lame Duck Prime Minister.

  27. No need to get your knickers in a knot Adam i was merely pointing out that history clearly being against Rudd – economy is good and he is so inexperienced – thus perhaps him breaking the mould we’ll see some interesting times in politics…

    God who would have thought last year that Rudd could beat Howard…but its looking increasingly likely…the history books would have to be altered if he won…

  28. Mr Luntz told The Australian yesterday. “Howard is almost Nixonian.”

    I have long argued in my social circle that Howard is our closest political parallel to Nixon.

  30. Mr Luntz obviously knows little of Australian political culture. Howard’s invective in mild compared to some in the past – Keating, Jack Lang, Fadden, Hughes, and of course Henry Parkes – who said: “The Hon Member for Bourke has committed every crime in the book, except the one we could so easily have forgiven him – suicide.”

  31. However Mr Howard seems to want to keep open the fear mongering options on terror:

    The Victoria Police Chief Commissioner said last week that the catchphrase had no application on the domestic counter-terrorism front, which is focused on community policing and winning the hearts and minds of alienated Muslims. But John Howard yesterday said: “I don’t agree with her. [b]I think (it is) very meaningful.”[/b]

  33. My favorite parliamentary insult:

    Parliamentarian: Mr Speaker, the honourable Member has the brains of a sheep.

    Mr. Speaker: You will apologise for that outburst.

    Parliamentarian: Mr. Speaker, I apologise, obviously the honourable Member does NOT have the brains of a sheep.

  34. [Mr Luntz obviously knows little of Australian political culture.]

    They don’t have the adverserial system like we do, so I guess he just isn’t used to it. I think that is one of the worst aspects of our system, it ensures that half the back bench are usually deadwood who can’t write a parliamentary speech to save themselves.

  35. Keating was quite hilarious when he was shadow treasurer, and shadow minister for mines and energy. He loved the fact one of Fraser’s advisors was Professor David Kemp, so Keating would repeatedly interject, or take points of order whenever Fraser was making a speech saying “This is Professor Kemp’s speech to the Victorian Liberal Party”.

  38. It’s not just an adversarial system, it’s an Australian adversarial system. QT in the House of Commons is astonishingly civilised compared to the Reps. No-one would dream of saying the stuff that gets said in Australian parliaments.

  40. Too right, Davey Boy! #115

    The only way that Howard and Company will survive will be if they are fortunate enough to be “blessed” with another Tampa incident. So watch out for a “manufactured threat”

    Even that would not work. Tampa, Terrorists, Haneef, you name it.

    We have endured.

    Good British heritage, as Kevin Andrews is so pleased to acknowledge.

    In the event of the worst, say a terrorist attack, especially on election eve, Howard and Co could hardly hold anyone else responsible.

    Remember Madrid?

  41. I love this on Howard 🙂

    “For Mr Howard to get to the high moral ground, he would first need to climb out of the volcanic hole he had dug for himself over the last decade. It is like one of those diamond mine holes in South Africa. They are about a mile underground. He would have to come a mile up to get to even equilibrium let alone have any contest in morality with Kevin Rudd.”

  43. Do you think there are any Coalition parliamentarians who think of Howard nowadays as “a lying c*nt with a limited future”? Now that’s an insult!

  46. To the left wingers of this blog i have the perfect book for you and you may already have it but i suggest you read ‘Underground’ Andrew McGahan its a twist on Aussie politics and it involves Canberra getting nuked and yes it is written with a ‘left wing slant’ but a fun read.

  48. [To the left wingers of this blog i have the perfect book for you and you may already have it but i suggest you read ‘Underground’ Andrew McGahan its a twist on Aussie politics and it involves Canberra getting nuked and yes it is written with a ‘left wing slant’ but a fun read.]

    OK, after I finish reading Das Kapital. 😛

  50. One thing that pisses me off about The Australian is how they run an article by Milne on Monday spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt about what Rudd is going to do with the GST. Then on Tuesday they run a story saying, well no, Rudd isn’t going to increase the GST after all. Why didn’t Milne just ring Rudd’s office on Monday?

    Does anyone think any politiician will EVER propose increasing the GST, and expect to be elected?

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