Not entirely sure what to make of this, but I have received a media release giving results from a Burson-Marsteller survey of 1156 voters conducted on Friday. Respondents were asked if they had firmly decided who they will vote for, to which 77 per cent answered yes. Of that 77 per cent, 56 per cent said they would vote Labor and only 34 per cent would vote Coalition. For the purposes of tying up loose ends, I also note reports on the weekend that an IPSOS Mackay poll indicated that Labor had taken a lead on the question of who would better manage the economy, by 39 per cent to 36 per cent.
Centre,
As an ex-racing official for a principal club, I can assure you that if this virus spreads, then there will be no choice but to postpone not just the Melbourne Cup, but most of the carnival as there will be no horses to run in the lead up races. The lead up meetings themselves may also be cancelled.
The only defence against this virus is lock down of horses and that means cancelling or postponing race meetings.
If Cup entrants don’t get enough racemetres into their legs (the norm here is around 10,000m) then they won’t be ready for the Cup and would unlikely to be risked by their owners even if the Cup was on.
What I would really like to see is a question included that says “Who did you vote for last time?” The question could be used to measure honesty in responses, sample selection etc.
Now that Ruddoch has decided that people are all polled out, will the liberal party now cancel all polling by Textor Crosby until after the election is over?
Perhaps the jockeys could just run round the track carrying their saddles. Is there a law that says the Melbourne Cup has to be run by horses? They could use donkeys, or camels. Camel-racing is very popular in the Middle East (they use Australian camels), and might catch on here if given a trial.
Amongst Burson-Marsteller’s stable of past clients are the Argentinian Juanta (when 40,000 people “dissappear” your international reputation may need a little tidying up) and Romanian dictator Ceausescu. While I do find this poll credible, their commitment to democracy, and the credibility of any poll they produce, should probably be seen in that light.
Sideline Eye, the virus should be controlled by then. But if it isn’t then the horses would need to be kept stationary for quite a long while to postphone the race. Otherwise we would be considered a laughing stock around the racing world.
My interest in racing arrives from the study of markets (stock markets). People get it wrong checking the form to pick winners. You check form to pick markets.
JWH tried the big impress last Melbourne Cup Day. Water Summit. Midday. Cabinet must have been overjoyed. Party Pooper!
May well shoot himself in the hoof this Cup Day..think Free Trade, think quarantine relaxation regulations, think Canadian Salmon disease apropos Tasmania, think Fireblight Apples ain’t Apples New Zealand.
Plenty of others.
Doesn’t matter about the implications for Australia’s hard working primary producers.
Relaxed and comfortable? At any cost? Place your bets!
Looks like the Greyhounds better known as dishlickers are about to get a sudden boost in popularity. The thoroughbred’s best times have always been recorded when fed to greyhounds anyway.
Maybe Howard and Rudd could run an egg-and-spoon race at Flemington and the mug punters could do their hard-earned on that.
Would people vote for a government that stops the Melbourne Cup going ahead? Would we become “the nation that stops the race”? The great Australian trivia trick question could then be : “Who won the Melbourne Cup in 2007?”
I still think Howard would need to call the election straight after APEC, to stop Labor demanding he go to the polls, as his three years is up. I reckon October 20th or 27th would be the go. Mind you, I’d prefer a date after that, because daylight saving would make election night even more fun, as there’d be a more even flow of fresh results through the night.
And BTW, does anyone think Howard will go into a Cabinet or party meeting any time soon and ask if his party still wants him to lead it? The suggestion that he did this once before wasn’t proven to my satisfaction.
Very little politics on TV and news tonight apart from Downer droning.
Something afoot?
Big IR policy announcement coming from Rudd soon according to the Brisbane Times.
Sideline Eye’s comments are spot on. Any decision on the Spring Racing Carnival would have to be made a fair way in advance, as horses would be coming from overseas and would be in semi-quarantine (ie confined to the sandown training track) for some time before the race.
Adam, I don’t think camel-racing would be suitable. It would have suspicious links to the Middle East (even though we have plenty of feral Australian camels, it’s possible some may have been lending their SIMcards to overseas relatives).
There are other great Australian racing traditions, like worm, cockroach, cow, sheep and ferret races, that could be employed. The competitors could be brought in from marginal coalition electorates, using sports grants announced by local members.
Mind you, Kina, the equine thing has occupied far more media time than any other issue.
Maybe elections aren’t so important after all? In the minds of others? Do you reckon swinging voters follow the horsies?
Do you reckon swinging voters follow the horsies?
I think that is what makes them swinging voters, they just get away from the races in time to vote .
Steve L
Ta. Still want to know who paid for it. And why.
Adam, punting is an extremely skilful science you know. Sideline Eye can tell you that some people can and do win. And for the ones who don’t it’s all part of the entertainment industry. People do their money everytime they buy a newspaper.
It’s interesting to note that betting on the election is not to far behind betting on the AFL or Rugby League grand final winner with Betfair.
BTW it’s spelt postpone Centre.
Kina re your comment at 48
I have nothing against religous based political organisations. I don’t mind Fred Nile, at least he is open about his views and his backers.
However both Family First and the Exclusive Brethren do much to deny their links to the Assemblies of God and politcal parties.
The Exclusive Brethren denied they financed the campaigns against the Greens in Tasmania and Victoria, in Tasmania the members drove round wearing pig masks in the car displaying anti-green slogans.
Family First issued a press release The (Family First) party is not a church party or an Assembly of God party, nor is it funded by AOG churches. But in Greenway where the Liberal candidate (Louise Marcus) is an AOG employee (via an external welfare agency), and yet the Family First candidate, AOG Pastor John Dorhauer is being gagged from pushing anything except the party line “No, we don’t have anything to do with the AOG.” and Recent media reports have labelled Family First Party a “Christian party” and, in some cases, an offshoot of mainstream Christian church, Assemblies of God. Lead Queensland Senate candidate, John Lewis, said that the labelling of the party bordered on slander.”
The Chaser mocked this with “Family First party denies Jesus Christ three time before cock crows”.
At least with the major parties and the Greens you know what you get to some extent, Work Choices excepted of course, but Family First are an unknown who rely on vague policies and a catchy party name.
It took Howard over 14 months to admit he had a meeting with the Exclusive Brethren in 2005. Why the secrecy.
“Lead Queensland Senate candidate, John Lewis, said that the labelling of the party bordered on slander.”
Funny that, but he was pastor of the Northside Christian Family Church at Everton Park for years and was very closely allied with the Assemblies of God.
[May well shoot himself in the hoof this Cup Day..think Free Trade, think quarantine relaxation regulations, think Canadian Salmon disease apropos Tasmania, think Fireblight Apples ain’t Apples New Zealand. ]
I mentioned the Quarentine Relaxation laws in the other thread and am pleased that it has been confirmed here.
The Ag Minister is going to be a very busy boy signing cheques to the Waterhouse and Cummings families amongst others.
Because he is quite rightly embarrassed about being seen to pander to an extremist sect which happens to have a lot of money to spend helping him get re-elected. He knows that Australians are suspicious of this creeping Americanisation of Australian religion and politics. He also knows that these rich sects nearly always get rich by fleecing their gullible members, so he doesn’t want to get too close to them in case they turn out to be a scandal. But he does want their money so he sucks up to them.
Steve, you’re right about the dishlickers. Lateline just reported that betting on the dogs has risen TENFOLD since the horse flu troubles began. You can’t keep those punters down.
I wonder if there’s been a big rise in election betting too? Might be worth seeing if the markets move in the next few days.
Does anyone know how much super Howard and Ruddock will walk away with if they resign their seats after the election (or in Howard’s case get beaten)? Just curious.
Adam this was the situation with Howard’s Super at the Last election.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/02/15/1076779839890.html?from=storyrhs
I only ask because it’s going to be quite expensive building an exact replica of Kirribilli House for Janette…
Howard won’t resign now…he’s not a coward and ‘deputy dawg’ wont want to lead the Party now and i think he believes he can still win the election despite what the polls say at the moment…
“one backbencher, who did not wish to be named, said the dissatisfaction within the Coalition over the super issue was likely to put pressure on Mr Howard to relinquish the leadership early in the next term if he won the election.”
What a bunch of pillows the Coalition party room turned out to be.
“i think he believes he can still win the election despite what the polls say at the moment…”
Maybe that’s part of the problem.
Adam
A couple of years ago a prominant liberal, maybe Kroger or even Costello!, said that the liberal party should buy Howard ahouse in appreciation for all that he had done for the liberal party.
If Howard leads them to another election win I’d say that the party would definetly buy him a Kirribilli replica at the location of his choice.
If he leads them to a narrow loss he may get a cottage in Berowa, (Bradmans home town?), do I get de-citenzenised if I got his wrong.
If he leads them to a landslide loss they may shout him a night at the Alice Springs backpackers hostel.
For once Glen is correct. Whatever else Howard may be, he is not a quitter. He will go down with the ship, and if he loses he will make a very dignified exit, unlike that big sook Fraser. I don’t think there will be a revolt, either. The Liberal party is a royalist party – the leader leads until he dies, retires or is turfed out by the peasants. The Liberal backbench have been drilled to obey for so long they are no longer capable of independent action.
Yes Simon
That is the problem. John Howard has hit the wall.
How long into Fraser’s resignation speech did he start to cry???
Howard if he loses will have a very good speech prepared and will go out with some dignity…
The Libs will either win with Howard or lose with him…there is no going back from here now…its just that simple.
Adam,
Howard will make a killing when he leaves office. There’ll be the book deals for an Autobiography. And then the US speech circuit giving speeches on “How George and I kicked Sadaam’s butt”. And of coarse he’ll be on the Board of Directors of about a dozen companies. Probably get paid a Gagzillon dollars for public appearances at Corporation functions. He’ll be sitting pretty.
# 70 Frank Calabrese Says:
August 27th, 2007 at 10:37 pm
The Ag Minister is going to be a very busy boy signing cheques to the Waterhouse and Cummings families amongst others.
Too true, Frank. What is the other thread you refer to re Quarantine Relaxation laws?
“Howard won’t resign now…he’s not a coward”
Glen, nobody in the whole of Australia wants him to resign now. If he suggests it to you at your briefing tomorrow, please talk him out of it. There is almost unanimous agreement amongst we would prefer him to contest the election and be voted out.
Matt Price on his blog has repeatedly said he thinks the government is gone, and that they can’t do anything to stop it. Who else in the media thinks this?
Andrew Bolt
Alan Ramsey?
Michelle Grattan (she said this about a month ago, and it seems to colour a lot of her articles since then)
Steve,
Howard doesn’t talk to the minions as they are beneath him and Glen is too busy bowing and scraping to be able to speak to the Great One.
Speaking of resignations Attorney General Alberto Gonzales has just tossed in the towel and resigned….
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/08/27/gonzales.profile/
Ramsey says that every time, so he doesn’t count. If Michelle Grattan thinks they are gone (and I don’t think she has said that), then that would carry a great deal of weight with me and many others.
Crikey Whitey said:
[Frank. What is the other thread you refer to re Quarantine Relaxation laws?]
I mentioned it in the Galaxy Thread, regarding Horse Flu and Compensation.
If Howard doesnt talk to the minions Paul k how come i’ve had the honour to shake his hand???
For better or worse Howard is a man of the people you cannot deny him that honour…
Fraser blubbed twice as I recall – once when he conceded and again when his son appeared. How we did hoot and mock – very juvenile of us I know, but people who lived through 1975 really really hated Fraser. I don’t hate Howard, I just want him gone, but I really loathed Fraser. The only politician I have hated as much as Fraser is Kennett. Don’t get me started…
I don’t want Howard to resign!
I want him to go down to election defeat, so I can boo as the Rodent delivers his concession speech LOL
On July 20 Grattan strongly suggested that the government’s best chance of winning is if Howard resigns and hands over to Costello. To me this implied, pretty strongly, that she thought the government was done for with Howard still as leader.
“But what we know of the objective evidence suggests a handover — initiated by Howard and cast in terms of the good of the party — would be in the interests of the Government.”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/howards-predicament/2007/07/19/1184559954724.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Alan Ramsey predicted that Latham would win the 2004 election: he’s hardly a reputable authority on these matters.
Glen,
I was only kidding around but I find it amusing that you agree that you are one of his minions. As far as shaking hands, he’s a pollie. Lucky you weren’t a baby or he would have kissed you.
But he’ll be defiant to the end like the Captain of the Titanic if he loses Howard Hater you wont like that…well except for laughing at him losing when the economy was going so well and being beaten by someone who had the least amount of leadership experience and pumped a Prime Minister of 11 years…then you would enjoy it about as much as i enjoyed Latham’s concession speech lol.
I’ve shaken hands with every Labor leader since Whitlam. The only Liberal PMs I have seen in the flesh so to speak have been McMahon, whom I pelted with jelly-beans at the Springvale Town Hall in 1972, and Fraser, at whom I shouted something very rude in the City Square in 1983.
Adam # 73
Does anyone know how much super Howard and Ruddock will walk away with if they resign their seats after the election.
Unless your question has been answered, I imagine, quite a lot!
The imaginative Self Serving Super Scheme ‘Pour in your tax free Millions’ would have been a handy little investment vehicle.
Leaving aside the ‘ordinary’ Super etc they would limp away with.
Mind you, it is a hedge fund situation again. Probably won’t get to waddle off with the no doubt laughing Signora Van Stone’s cosy outpost.
Oh, I am wrong, I have of course seen Howard many times from the Reps gallery. And I stood behind him in the queue at the Parliament House coffeeshop once.