Galaxy: 57-43

The News Limited stable today brings us a poll from Galaxy, an outfit that has traditionally given the Coalition more cause for optimism than its rivals. Not this time though: after rising into the 40s in June and July, the Coalition primary vote is back down to 39 per cent, while Labor is up from 44 per cent to 47 per cent on last month. Labor’s 57-43 two-party lead likewise returns to the situation in May, and compares with 54-46 last month. Attitudinal questions find respondents more likely to attribute the budget surplus to high taxes than good management, and overwhelmingly inclined to think Rudd a “normal bloke” on account of the strip club incident. However, it appears that not all of the 1,004 interviews were conducted over the past weekend (note the bottom of the press release: “These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the weekend of 24-26 August”). It therefore cannot be stated with confidence how timely these figures are, or whether the entire sample was in a position to pass judgment on the strip club affair or the budget surplus.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

372 comments on “Galaxy: 57-43”

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  1. The Australian still won’t support Labor even after these concessions.

    But they make it pretty hard to say Labor is beholden to the unions.

  2. Tim

    Yes, I think I might concur with Tony Abbott as a strong choice as the next opposition leader. Peter Costello has been “folded a bit too much” and doesn’t resonate well in the electorate (or indeed his own party). I thought Turnbull had a chance but met him the other day, looked rattled and I wonder whether he’s wondering whether this whole politics thing is really his caper..

    Tony Abbott is the coalition attack dog and he would be reminiscent of Paul Keating in his hey day in parliament, I think.

    One point about Kevin that hasn’t seriously been broached in the media is, what I would have thought, was a gaping logical inconsistency with his economic platform: Namely, if Kevin is indeed a “fiscal conservative” AND he largely approved measures in the May 07 budget AND won’t undo a lot of Howard’s spending AND is almost strident about the coalition’s apparent lack of control over rate rises… why won’t someone ask Kevin how, pray tell, he plans to put the hold on interest rates… and the “infrastructure and productivity” argument doesn’t hold without sacrificing budget measures… Any comments anyone??

  3. [Tony Abbott is the coalition attack dog and he would be reminiscent of Paul Keating in his hey day in parliament, I think.]

    Keating was never opposition leader though. Crean tried to be an attack dog opposition leader, but he got nowhere.

    I think Howard is the last monarchist to lead an Australian political party. Even Abbott realises that he is too right wing to be leader, but I think Howard would prefer him to Costello.

  4. Amber said

    Ergo, equine flu virus — what a wily pollie is Howard 😉

    C’mon Amber, you’re flogging a dead horse there 🙂

  5. Glen, Tony Abbott would be proud, you really are a true believer and I respect you as much as our Green and/or Left friends here that are steadfast to their ideals.

    I don’t agree with your media assessment, the Coalition gets a free ride in the OZ with all but pretty much Philip Adams (who spends his time Quixote-like blasting at those Christian windmills to bother John Howard much!). Kerry O’Brien doesn’t seem to like Rudd, not sure why. Even the tabloids give Howard a pretty good run often and in key locations for Rudd, haven’t given any favours..

    Kevin is looking a bit bullet-proof and I genuinely like him. It is nice to have a Labor leader that is different without being crazy like Taz from Warner Bros fame. The electorate also related to the strip club incident generally positively, the hedonists that we are, maybe watered down the “geek” factor a little. He will do well but 17 seats is no gift, Latham left the party in disrepair..

  6. re the Equine Virus, I’m pretty sure there was a condition in the US Free Trade Agreement that there was either a relaxation or “Streamlining” of Customs/Quarantine Laws before the US would sign off.

    I could be totally wrong of course, but if so, this would really open up the Govt to Compensation Claims from the Thoroughbred Industry, who include quite a few Conservative voters ?

  7. Rob Says:
    August 27th, 2007 at 9:23 pm
    “Amber said

    Ergo, equine flu virus — what a wily pollie is Howard

    C’mon Amber, you’re flogging a dead horse there ”

    LMAO 😀

  8. As far as election dates, we should perhaps be looking not to Otter’s entrails but to the backlog of gear to get through the Senate. Realistically, the coalition will not be assuming a victory at present and could reasonably be expected to be getting as much “through the window” of their senate majority before their “long, dark, winter” in opposition.

    This may be a better predictor of an election date and may put it back a little.

    I’d expect a fair bit of crazy stuff being put up in the Senate as the coalition clears the shelves.

    Ironically, it could be a short stint in power for Kevin and Labor if the rates continue hiking (the correction hasn’t taken much head off the steam) and big projects like the Broadband and Hospitals blow out (technology/infrastructure and health notoriously do cost more than anticipated). Labor fights the stigma of their big-spending and over-budget policies of the past and with some cause.

  9. Generic

    Tony Abbott as leader? Mmm I’ve never considered it before, but you might be right. Abbott has a good face for TV. He’s young. He’s a politician, so he would compromise his stance if that’s what it took to be PM.

  10. LOL touche Rob

    GO, I could be wrong becaus Rudd hasn’t been clear about it but I think he wants to get the emphasis back to productivity. Genuine productivity increases mean wage increases without inflation. We’ll see what he has to say about this in due course, I imagine. Or maybe not 🙂 He’s marking Howard so closely we haven’t seen a great deal of the bigger picture. When the election is called he might give himself more room.

  11. Rob LOL 🙂 Well, in Australia it is almost par for the course isn’t it!!

    Amber, yes, I do think you have a point there. Labor is committed to productivity and, admittedly, Keating did bring in quite a good deal of this in the mid 1990’s, despite the deficits which tended to overshadow this. Truth be told, interest rates were high, but they were almost everywhere. I suspect, however, that had they been under 10% then this productivity would have been more of a headline for him.

    The more cynical might say that Labor is always keen on infrastructure and productivity because it tends to move the sectors that finances the party, namely manufacturing, construction and mining labour..

    I do think Australia could really benefit from massive-scale value-added industry like Korea did with Ship-Building but the environmental conscience in me shudders sometimes.. Still, things like ships get built on the planet anyway, so perhaps better in a country with tighter (in a very loose, relative sense!!) environmental controls! Your thoughts?

  12. re productivity

    i think it was the oecd that tracked broadband to productivity among select nations -ireland etc

    the results were quite remarkable where an uptake of technology was supported by govt
    all in all win win without the acrimony of wage demands

    link this to renewable energy etc and you have ongoing productivity enhancements and growth

    ps 119 seats and rising

  13. Abbott may well make opposition leader, but he is far too polarising a religious headkicker to ever be acceptable to the bulk of the electorate as PM.

  14. I think Abbott would be excellent for the Libs while they rebuild but he’ll be dumped once he loses an election. He will only ever be a stop gap but a good man to have when the chips are down and you need someone who can take the heat.

  15. Just Me said

    Abbott may well make opposition leader, but he is far too polarising a religious headkicker to ever be acceptable to the bulk of the electorate as PM.

    Yes, but he’s also a politician who can compromise his values if that’s what it takes. I wouldn’t have believed this myself until about two hours ago when GO suggested it. Now I can’t see why not!

  16. Why would Tony Abbot want to be the Opposition Leader he’d far rather have fun being the Opposition health spokesman banging on about abortion, RU486 and how the Howard Government was the Best Friend Medicare ever had!

    My next Crop of Liberal Leaders…

    Malcolm Turnbull
    Brendan Nelson
    Julie Bishop
    Mal Brough

  17. Rob, problem for Abbott is his hardline views have already alienated too many within the party, and the broader community. Australians don’t like aggressive moralistic religious monarchists.

  18. Howard presented himself to the battlers and low information voters, as a firm but fair conservative friendly uncle type.Workchoices changed that perception , when they were struggling with housing,education and transport costs he introduced them to job insecurity.Now its payback time. This in my view is why the polls are so steady and why Howard looks so jumpy.
    On the murderous enterprise called the Iraq war there is an article in Rolling Stone that provides another insight,that will have you kicking inanimate objects around the house. .
    Julie Bishop makes Danna Vale look comptent.

  19. If Turnbull is not defeated in his electorate, if the Coalition lose the election either Costello or Nelson will become opposition leader.

  20. #369 correction

    If Turnbull is defeated in his electorate and the coalition loses the election either Costello or Nelson will become opposition leader.

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