The News Limited stable today brings us a poll from Galaxy, an outfit that has traditionally given the Coalition more cause for optimism than its rivals. Not this time though: after rising into the 40s in June and July, the Coalition primary vote is back down to 39 per cent, while Labor is up from 44 per cent to 47 per cent on last month. Labor’s 57-43 two-party lead likewise returns to the situation in May, and compares with 54-46 last month. Attitudinal questions find respondents more likely to attribute the budget surplus to high taxes than good management, and overwhelmingly inclined to think Rudd a “normal bloke” on account of the strip club incident. However, it appears that not all of the 1,004 interviews were conducted over the past weekend (note the bottom of the press release: “These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the weekend of 24-26 August”). It therefore cannot be stated with confidence how timely these figures are, or whether the entire sample was in a position to pass judgment on the strip club affair or the budget surplus.
I actually saw someone mention this a minute ago and I thought they were either making a prediction or giving what they hoped to see. I didn’t actually think this was real, but this is pretty surprising, and is surely good news for the ALP given that the election is roughly in a dozen or less weeks from now.
Full results PDF here:
http://media01.couriermail.com.au/multimedia/Galaxy/galaxypoll260807.pdf
I can’t believe it really, I thought it would be at best 54 / 46. It makes Newspoll look conservative.
The best thing is that tomorrow Howard, Costello, Downer et al are going to spend half the day answering questions about how bad the polls are, instead of spruiking policy.
And why will they have to do that Simon because the Media never give the Coalition a fair go!
I still dont like the manner of wording of 2 questions on Stripgate and the reason for the surplus. They were bad, an invitation to knock Rudd and support Howard. That the punters still managed to choose the most Labor friendly, anti-govt answers has got to be ominous.
Now if the government had behave normally since December, just governed and campaigned in an honest way they may well have been better off by now. There own smear and the smear coming from their newspaper friends has cost them.
as I posted on the below thread,
anyone looked at the question how the gov should spend the money:
Buy its
way to an election victory ……
thats sounds like a option that i’d put in the survey, while not push polling, this poll has some of the same characteristics of a push poll, several questions do plant a option that is very anti howard. Buying it’s way to an election victory being the most blatant, but even the tax’s to high one for why we have a surplus(dosn’t everyone always think taxes are to high, bound to get a high return for that response regardless of what the others options are).
Really cant say im impressed by the question wording, last time round they had some shockers about the alp and unions (which part of unions worry you the most or something), and this time some shockers the other way in my view. Last time everyone cried liberal bias, i think they are just chasing headlines.
[And why will they have to do that Simon because the Media never give the Coalition a fair go!]
WHAT? They can’t get a go with Jones, Milne, Laws, Bolt, Albrechtson?
If they had better policies the polls wouldn’t suck so bad, so they could spend more time talking about them, instead of not mentioning policies such as the policy formerly known as workchoices.
And poor Glen is still in denial that his favourite pollster has let the side down.
Oh and over the weekend, in our local throway rag, it was announced that a new Technical College will be built at the old Midland Railway Workshops (which were ironically closed by Richard Court in his first term as Premier) which is of course in the ultra-marginal Govt held seat of Hasluck.
simon, let them go through to the keeper, he’s a troll craving attention. ignore him.
Kina when have the Coalition smeared???
Rudd has got himself into every ‘gate’ this year…
We didnt make him meet with Brian Burke 3 times!
We didnt make him support Sunrise making a fake dawn service!
We didnt make Rudd go to a strip joint!
These lead up questions in Galaxy offer more Howard bashing do you really think people will say good economic management they’ll of course choose the taxes option…
[Really cant say im impressed by the question wording, last time round they had some shockers about the alp and unions (which part of unions worry you the most or something), and this time some shockers the other way in my view. Last time everyone cried liberal bias, i think they are just chasing headlines.]
I wish they would just put dryer Newspoll like questions in:
“Who do you think will best manage the economy / health / education / environment?”
Those questions can be more revealing to see if there is any movement.
[Rudd has got himself into every ‘gate’ this year…
We didnt make him meet with Brian Burke 3 times!
We didnt make him support Sunrise making a fake dawn service!
We didnt make Rudd go to a strip joint!]
And all of that does not matter, because given a choice, they think The Rodent is worse!
Why is that Simon??? Because the MEDIA back Rudd 100% they’ve made him into a God and NEVER EVER question him and his failures!
“If they had better policies…”
If the States hadnt blocked the Murray Darling Water Plan Howard would have got a lot of good press but OHHHHHHHH no Bracks had to block it THANKYOU Very Much!
Glen,
Speaking of Dodgy Things and Leaders, do you recall this event involving the PM at the 2004 Election ?
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/02/14/1076548275777.html
People in Glass Houses……
I have to ask – has Glenn Milne dropped any pretense of impartiality?
First he launches Strippergate – which seems to have backfired on the Coalition – and now he’s directly comparing Labor’s health plan to Medicare Gold – solely because the ALP have refused to confirm whether they will withhold money from the GST grants if the Federal Government takes over the hospitals.
I wonder what’s the next story that he’s going to break – “Kevin Rudd had once had dinner with Gough Whitlam”?
If you now draw a trend line through all the polls, with its starting point at Labor’s peak in March, it doesn’t reach 50-50 until next February.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/polls.shtml
In other words, the strategy of “wait until the drift back to Howard reaches 50-50”, spruiked by Glen and others here, no longer stands up. The polls are now back where they were in May, so three months of Howard’s recovery time has been lost. Despite all the superficial issues which have come and gone, I remain convinced that WorkChoices, and the breach of trust in Howard that it represents for the million voters who switched to Howard in 1996, is the “deep” issue dragging the Coalition to defeat. The question now is – will the Lib backbenchers stick to their principles and go down with WorkChoices, or will they mutiny? This poll represents a 10% swing, which means 38 members losing their seats.
I spose it makes sense for galaxy to throw in the headline bait questions. A pollsters performance is only ever judged on how close they got to the two party and primary result. So you can feasibly correctly poll for voting intentions and thus keep up your credibility and all the while throw is a few leading questions at the end to get some juicy press coverage.
“The Morgan Poll of 1959 people conducted last weekend said Labor held 56.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote while the Liberal-National Coalition had 43.5 per cent”
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/02/14/1076548275777.html
Look and what happened a few months later you LOST!
Labor were that far ahead and still lost so you better calm your HUBRIS for if you lose it will hurt even more!
Glen
Look at the scoreboard, mate.
Glen – wasn’t that poll conducted in February 2004 – not August??? This poll is much closer to the election than that particular Morgan Poll.
That said, there’s still a long way to go, but I’d much rather be in the ALP’s shoes than the Coalition’s at this stage…
[Why is that Simon??? Because the MEDIA back Rudd 100% they’ve made him into a God and NEVER EVER question him and his failures!]
RUBBISH! Do you think Milne revealing Rudd went to a strip club was designed to help him become P.M.?
Look at Milne’s article today where he is working up a scare campaign to make voters think Rudd is going to increase the GST!
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/yoursay/index.php/theaustralian/comments/alps_gst_shadow_over_hospitals_pledge/
Even you note that Rudd doesn’t have a tax policy, so how could the non-existant policy involve increasing the GST?
[WHAT? They can’t get a go with Jones, Milne, Laws, Bolt, Albrechtson?]
You forgot to add the entire Editorial Staff of The West Australian – if Glen wants LIberal Spin, he’d better get a subscription, he won’t be disappointed, along with Geoff Hutchison on ABC Local Radio Perth, Eoin Cameron (of the same station and a former Liberal Member for Stirling), plus the majority of the staff of Southern Cross Broadcasting.
Workchoices killed the Government off Glen. Own goal. Unforced error. No one to blame but themselves.
Deal with it.
Simon if Rudd had any sense he’d NEVER HAVE GONE TO A STRIP CLUB…BUT THEN HE LIED ABOUT IT AND KEPT IT A SECRET FOR 4 years!
“Even you note that Rudd doesn’t have a tax policy, so how could the non-existant policy involve increasing the GST?”
If Rudd has NO tax policy he could do ANYTHING including raising the GST to please his Labor ‘Premiers’!
Big deal that’s the reason why the Coalition is still marginally competitive over in WA because they have a balanced press…everywhere else you have left wing media running the joint!
And these bloody polls showing we’ll lose are enough to cause Howard to be beaten…nobody will want to vote for a party so down in the polls…
The only media which is remotely pro-Labor is the Fairfax press and the ABC, and they spend half their time attacking Labor from the Left.
Also Glen, we don’t believe Morgan polls, remember? We believe Galaxy polls, the only polls that get it right, remember?
Lefty E and thanks to Labor’s pre-1993 Union loving IR policy you’ll put hundreds of thousands out of work…i dont want to work in a Union dominated IR system but you’re happy with it!
Workchoices was used by the media and the Unions to just scare monger…no mass sackings…no decrease in wages…no sky falling in…workchoices wont kill Howard only the biased MEDIA will!
glen you are a troll.
please everyone stop responding to him.
Glen, wipe the tears out of your eyes and stop just making stuff up.
Cameron i could say you lefties are trolls!
Just because i support the Liberal Party does not make me a troll!
These nominally non-aligned and neutral political commentary sites are infested by leftist trolls.
People on the other side of the political spectrum are people too!
The currently available sample does little to support that hypothesis.
Simple answer to Milner – a blogosphere campaign to not buy News Ltd papers unless Milne starts publishing balance stories.
Buy no News Ltd papers with Milne!
Buy no News Ltd papers with Milne!
Buy no News Ltd papers with Milne!
Buy no News Ltd papers with Milne!
I agree with Cameron and Adam. Glen is a troll and Workchoices was either the longest or the second longest politcal suicide note in Australian History. Which was the larger document “Fightback” or the “Workchoices” legislation?
[Simon if Rudd had any sense he’d NEVER HAVE GONE TO A STRIP CLUB…BUT THEN HE LIED ABOUT IT AND KEPT IT A SECRET FOR 4 years!]
You’re using the word “lie” incorrectly. Rudd just didn’t TELL anyone, that isn’t lying.
[Big deal that’s the reason why the Coalition is still marginally competitive over in WA ]
WONDERFUL! This means you now realise they aren’t competitive anywhere else!
[And these bloody polls showing we’ll lose are enough to cause Howard to be beaten…nobody will want to vote for a party so down in the polls…]
Have you considered that that is a good thing?
[Which was the larger document “Fightback†or the “Workchoices†legislation?]
My guess would be “the legislation formerly known as WorkChoices”
See Kina you just cant hack that there are some journalists with some guts to scrutinize the ALP!
Now you are just being ridiculous.
Simon the fact is Rudd lied when he said he couldnt remember because of alcohol as if he’d just pass out and forget it all but then remember to call his wife the next day…
Milnes articles are not scrutiny, they are designe to take votes off Rudd.
To denounce and to create fear.
Buy no News Ltd papers with Milne!
Buy no News Ltd papers with Milne!
Buy no News Ltd papers with Milne!
Buy no News Ltd papers with Milne!
Kina.
Chill.
Glen. Nobody cares about Rudd going to a strip joint.
NOBODY CARES.
Who buys papers when you can read them online?
Kina you’re so used to reading and watching and listening to the media which makes Rudd out to be a GOD you can’t hack any scrutiny against him!
Its ok to scrutinize the Coalition and Howard but not Rudd gee you’re not biased at all!!!
Yeah,Workchoices is a shocker at 800 pages. Thats my bet.
Many employers hate it.
Just goes to show – it wasnt about economic reform, or liberalising work relationships, or freeing up anything.
Its just bureacratic masses of anti-union regulation, to crush internationally recognised rights to collective bargaining, which fails to understand that productivity gains result from agreements with a enterprise workforce, not individuals.
And I pity anyone who lives in a one paper state like WA where we have the The West during the Week, and Murdoch’s Sunday Crimes on Sunday’s, while SA, Qld & Tasmania only have News Ltd for their reading pleasure 🙁
PS. Adam, I’ve sent you an email to your election2007 addy 🙂
Glen, are you seriously suggesting that the only reason Howard is down in the polls is because the media is giving Rudd a free ride???
What about Bolt, Akerman, Milne, Shanahan or Kelly? What about the Oz’s forensic examination of all of Rudd’s faults, and their promotion of meaningless government initiatives? As far as I can tell the Age is perhaps the only paper that is in Labor’s column.
Might it not be Rudd is actually (gasp!) popular? Or that Howard may even be UNpopular??????
Rudd ist ein Verlierer, den er nicht gewinnt, Wenck kommt er muß wir verdienen nicht, sein nicht angemessenes zu verlieren wir haben getan nichts falsch!!!
Dieses ist also Mist, den ich nicht meinen einzelnen Vertrag verlieren möchte, ich nicht meinen Job verlieren möchte und ich wünsche nicht höhere Zinssätze.
Rudd ist ein unerfahrener Dummkopf!
es ist nicht an allem dieses saugt angemessen, warum wir bis jetzt hinter mir möchten nicht geschlagen durch diesen Idiot Rudd Gott seinen Misten erhalten sind, den ich Wenck kommen wünsche er muß wir GEWINNE!
So if people are only voting for Rudd due to pro Labor Media bias, I guess they also only ever voted for Howard in the past was due to pro Liberal Media bias. Glen, deal with the poll results sensibly. Your posts are getting childish.
QUESTION: Is the government going to panic? Surely they won’t just walk blind into a landslide. What will they do to try to get back some votes? Releasing some policy is probably a good idea, they’ve kind of forgotten about that for the last, well, 5 months. But if so, what policy will they release? My guess is tax cuts (which Rudd can say are inflationary, while matching them). But what else? Will it be something radical?
It will not be a landslide if we lose…again your hubris gets ahead of you…you are rightly ahead and bar yet another Rudd controversy it will take alot to make up so much ground in so little time…
The chances of Rudd winning is more than Howard winning…
But its easier for Rudd to win than Howard winning a 5th term is harder than winning it off a 4 term Government with baggage!
What baggage would that be Glen ?