Galaxy: 57-43

The News Limited stable today brings us a poll from Galaxy, an outfit that has traditionally given the Coalition more cause for optimism than its rivals. Not this time though: after rising into the 40s in June and July, the Coalition primary vote is back down to 39 per cent, while Labor is up from 44 per cent to 47 per cent on last month. Labor’s 57-43 two-party lead likewise returns to the situation in May, and compares with 54-46 last month. Attitudinal questions find respondents more likely to attribute the budget surplus to high taxes than good management, and overwhelmingly inclined to think Rudd a “normal bloke” on account of the strip club incident. However, it appears that not all of the 1,004 interviews were conducted over the past weekend (note the bottom of the press release: “These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the weekend of 24-26 August”). It therefore cannot be stated with confidence how timely these figures are, or whether the entire sample was in a position to pass judgment on the strip club affair or the budget surplus.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

372 comments on “Galaxy: 57-43”

Comments Page 2 of 8
1 2 3 8
  1. I live in Perth (waits for sympathy)

    Unlike the Oz, which at least pretends to be a paper of record, the West Australian is like Fox News in paper form. Its dilemma at the moment is that Paul Omedi, the current opposition leader, is so appallingly bad, they actually don’t have a horse to back.

  2. God’s teeth.

    If Galaxy’s at 57/43, could it be that Morgan is right and the real figure is closer to 60/40?

    Bet it’s panic stations in the PM’s office tomorrow.

    Sorry, later today.

  3. [But its easier for Rudd to win than Howard winning a 5th term is harder than winning it off a 4 term Government with baggage!]

    Hence Howard should’ve pissed off to Hamilton Island late last year.

  4. [If Galaxy’s at 57/43, could it be that Morgan is right and the real figure is closer to 60/40?

    Bet it’s panic stations in the PM’s office tomorrow.

    Sorry, later today.]

    Now Newspoll seems low!

  5. 4 years worth of media hatred and scrutiny picks up alot…

    Pity the media wont scrutinise Rudd as much as its done for Howard…

    Oh well the end of democracy is near if Labor runs the shop in Australia…
    No scrutiny from the media…no effective opposition in any parliament…

  6. [Dinsdale Piranha Says:
    August 27th, 2007 at 1:53 am
    I live in Perth (waits for sympathy)

    Unlike the Oz, which at least pretends to be a paper of record, the West Australian is like Fox News in paper form. Its dilemma at the moment is that Paul Omedi, the current opposition leader, is so appallingly bad, they actually don’t have a horse to back.]

    Dinsdale,

    I’m a Perthite as well, and I know exactly how you feel, and you know what makes it worse- the fact that the electronic media feeds off the bullshit they publish.

    The only way that the WA Libs will get anywhere will be if they make John Worsfold Leader of The Opposition 🙂

  7. ” well the end of democracy is near if Labor runs the shop in Australia…”

    Oh my, the end is near. It’s the downfall of Western Civilization. Soon it will be famine and pestilence and earthquakes. And all because Rudd will be PM.

  8. I guess Rudd and Co are going to have to keep coming out and saying GST is not going to be touched under any circumstances. Thats the fear campaign the Govt and their partisan paper friends are trying to work up.

    buy no news ltd papers. ;]

  9. [No scrutiny from the media…no effective opposition in any parliament]

    It goes in cycles, Howard has had 11 years, and maybe more, but eventually the opposition gets their act together and wins.

    The crucial difference is the ALP has actually managed excellent transitions, Carr to Iemma, Bracks to Brumby, even Gallop to Carpenter. This has given those new governments bonus terms, that otherwise they wouldn’t have got.

    It SEEMS that Howard has just made an extrodinary mistake in believing his own hype, and thinking he was politically invincible.

    It SEEMS that most Australians think 9 or 10 years is the absolute max that ANY political leader deserves.

  10. hmm, My last message is in moderation 🙁

    I reckon a Rudd Govt will be under MORE scrutiny by the media than this current Govt – who have been soft on Howard because he gave the Media owners what they wanted re Media Ownership Reform.

  11. I think you’re over reacting a bit Glen. Campbell Newman will still be Brisbane’s Lord Mayor.

    (although, now that I think about it, he doesnt control the council…. 🙁 )

    Im curious though, as to why the Punters get sucked in by the meeja, but not the non-stop Government ads?

  12. [Im curious though, as to why the Punters get sucked in by the meeja, but not the non-stop Government ads?]

    They assume the media is impartial, and disinterested in most issues. Whereas they assume government advertising is trying to trick them, or not telling them the whole story?

    Just a guess…

  13. [blockquote]
    Oh well the end of democracy is near if Labor runs the shop in Australia…
    No scrutiny from the media…no effective opposition in any parliament…
    [/blockquote]

    Glen, are you saying the federal Liberals don’t have the experience required to be a decent opposition? That they ain’t good enough for the job? 🙂

  14. “The crucial difference is the ALP has actually managed excellent transitions…”

    hmm could this be because the Liberal State Oppositions arent worth jack! God any halfwit in the ALP leading the States could take the State Libs they are a joke!

    They only got bonus terms because the State Liberals are in no way electable because of bad leadership and get no good press from the liberal progressive media!

    Howard hasnt stuffed our country up and he doesnt deserve to lose like this…

    Frank Rudd is the media’s love child do you really think they’ll scrutinise it no way they’ll be soft on their own kind…

  15. Glen,

    Have an asprin and go to bed. You have no idea how silly you are sounding right now. We are going to stay a democracy and the Libs will rebuild and live to fight another day. It’s only one election, it’s not the only election.

  16. [I think you’re over reacting a bit Glen. Campbell Newman will still be Brisbane’s Lord Mayor.]

    Lefty,

    Here in WA local govt isn’t Party Political, ie there is no direct political party involvement in electing councillors and/or mayors etc, but it’s obvious about their political leanings when it comes to voting decisions.

  17. ANOTHER in the continuing series of “why didn’t feminists attack Rudd” stories! This one is by Tory Maguire:

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22311944-5001031,00.html

    The others are by Milne:

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22305590-5012477,00.html

    And of course, Albrechtsen:
    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/sisterhood_silence

    Do they hunt in packs? Or did the later two just run out of things to write about?

  18. Paul its the only election that will send us to the electoral wilderness not seen since the 1980s…

    Meh im going to bed im sick of being put down in a supposedly neutral political forum…i guess you’re not used to opposition to your views…

    If the Libs lose it’ll be out everywhere and with little chance of getting back anywhere for a while…Labor have suffered this fate only briefly after Holt’s 1966 landslide.

  19. The result of concentrated media ownership is you get what we got.

    I am waiting to see if News Ltd is going to run an election campaign for Howard or if this GST nonsense and Milnes obsession with Stripgate is a passing thing.

    If any paper campaigns for any side then we should campaign to not buy their papers. Just give me the facts in the right context, give my your unbias analysis – then let me make my own choices.

  20. Here in WA local govt isn’t Party Political, ie there is no direct political party involvement in electing councillors and/or mayors etc, but it’s obvious about their political leanings when it comes to voting decisions.

    I think it’s even more obvious than that, Frank. Most councilors are card-carrying members of either Labor or Liberal. And if not, they get snapped up pretty quickly by a recruiter from one side or another.

  21. [I am waiting to see if News Ltd is going to run an election campaign for Howard or if this GST nonsense and Milnes obsession with Stripgate is a passing thing.]

    Oh, I will be shocked if The Australian endorses Rudd instead of Howard. They hate Rudd’s stance on AWAs, which is enough to make them ignore all of Howard’s short comings. I can nearly see the endorsement editorial right now, it will say “Labor’s stance on AWAs leaves us in the unenviable position that we must stick with the devil we know, rather than the one we don’t know.”

    Rudd will get endorsements from The Age and the SMH, Courier Mail (they think Howard is just picking on the states for political reasons), probably The Advertiser (because of the submarine promise last week), but not much else.

  22. [I think it’s even more obvious than that, Frank. Most councilors are card-carrying members of either Labor or Liberal. And if not, they get snapped up pretty quickly by a recruiter from one side or another.]

    You are quite correct, in that context, but I meant in election advertising there is no political party logos or “official” party endorsement/backing.

  23. Kina, as a savvy political observer ,are you not aware that you are advocating what I believe is called a secondary boycott, and that Mr. Costello has drafted legislation to stop this very behavior?

    There will be penalties involving years in prison for expressing such seditious views and you are exposing yourself to extreme risk.

    This is the type of democracy that the Troll espouses will be lost under a Rudd administration.

  24. If the Libs lose it’ll be out everywhere and with little chance of getting back anywhere for a while…Labor have suffered this fate only briefly after Holt’s 1966 landslide.

    You know, Glen, this will be good for the Liberals. Bloodletting will ensue, and they will learn in time to be effective in opposition. Politics shifts and it catches this or that party off guard. Either the Lib/Nat coalition dies and a new conservative party arises, or they go their separate ways. Either way, it will be a positive development.

    But I think is it fair point to say that any party that gains too much power becomes bloated and arrogant. This was never more obvious than Labour in Britain under Blair, and with Thatcher in the 1980s.

    Let’s hope the Greens get the balance of power, eh? 😉

  25. “Oh, I will be shocked if The Australian endorses Rudd instead of Howard.”

    Simon, at the end of the day, Rupert is a businessman and a pragmatist. His media will do whatever is in his best interests.

    And I don’t think that pissing off the incoming Labor government will suit those interests. After all, he’s gonna have to live with them and their control of the meeja laws for 3 and more likely at least 6 years (judging by the likely size of the swing).

    I reckon the GG editorial comment will hop onto the Labor bandawggon well prior to the poll.

    You might find Milne, Shanahan and a few others pulling their heads-in somewhat too. You can only flog a dead horse for so long and they don’t want to look like complete prats in the eyes of the Boss.

  26. [Simon, at the end of the day, Rupert is a businessman and a pragmatist. His media will do whatever is in his best interests.]

    So you reckon he will get them to endorse whoever the editorial board thinks will win? That seems to be what they do at The Advertiser.

    Does the ALP still have Latham’s policy of auctioning off some more free to air TV licenses? That would piss Rupert off if they don’t let him buy one.

    I am quite astonished at some of the scare tactics of the business unions. You know, saying that all these small businesses will shut if WorkChoices is repealed. Don’t they realise that the ALP could win? The ALP won’t do them many favours if they keep running those ads.

  27. Fulvio Sammut : Your are right 🙁
    the govt’s new laws can send me to prison if i push for a boycott. What sort of country is this?

    The News Ltd papers must be forgetting the hardline stance Howard had on FOI, managing access to ministerial press conferences and persecuting journalists.

    I can just see The Australian crying blue murder when Howard jails one of their journalists next year if he got elected again. But no one will care, it will be too late.

  28. Rupert does have a habit of backing winners so if he feels there’s no stopping Rudd he may very well tell some of his journos to pull their heads in.

  29. [Rupert does have a habit of backing winners so if he feels there’s no stopping Rudd he may very well tell some of his journos to pull their heads in.]

    Shanahan endorsed Rudd’s health policy late last week, he implied that the government should’ve announced the same deal.

    Even Andrew Bolt reckons taking over just the Mersey is a joke.

  30. [More disturbing for the Government is the indication that voters are turning against it on their strongest suit – economic management.

    The poll suggests Australians regard the $17 billion surplus as a sign of a government that taxes too much.

    This poll goes against the trend of Galaxy polls over recent months.

    It may be an aberration and a voter over-reaction to the recent interest rate rise and the sensationalisation of the strip club story. If it is not, the Howard Government is now in a lot of trouble.]

    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22311871-662,00.html

  31. Howard should get on and call the election date – the punters are now way cynical about Howards motives and transparent relection strategies. By getting the debate refocussed with an actual date he may avoid total annihilation.

  32. What a lovely set of numbers. Especially given the source.

    Yeah,Workchoices is a shocker at 800 pages. Thats my bet.
    Many employers hate it.

    Left E (43)

    My sister has owned and run a successful small business for over ten years, and she says the Workchoices legislation is a disaster, and seriously increases their workload and reduces their operating choices.

    And I pity anyone who lives in a one paper state like WA where we have the The West during the Week, and Murdoch’s Sunday Crimes on Sunday’s, while SA, Qld & Tasmania only have News Ltd for their reading pleasure.
    Frank Calabrese (44)

    The NT has had only one daily since forever, ‘The NT News’, a Murdoch paper.

  33. Just Me:

    Sorry, forgot about the NT Times – listening to “What The Papers Say” on Nightlife reminds me what weird stories make the front page and how they make big stories about 12 yr old kids being charged for stealing ice creams, plus they love stories involving Child Sex Offences those News Ltd rags and publish so much detail, they could be how to manuals for would be offenders.

  34. The Australian has an interesting go at one of Howard’s biographers, showing some of his poor predictions:

    “Howard co-biographer Peter van Onselen, on the Nine Network’s Sunday yesterday, on why Kevin Rudd will win:

    I TEND to go with what Centrebet says. Centrebet’s the best predictor for elections rather than opinion polls, and Centrebet is showing that the Labor Party’s well ahead. If I had to walk through a door and my life depended on it, I’d say that Kevin Rudd’s going to win the election.

    Peter van Onselen, in the current issue of Quarterly Essay, says Kevin Rudd will lose:

    UNLESS there is a clear move on, Rudd is more likely to fall just short of, than just over, the line. Incumbent governments have an enormous advantage at election time. (Howard) should get to depart at a time of his choosing.

    Peter van Onselen, in The Australian, on January 24, 2005, on the odds against a Geoff Gallop victory at the last Western Australian election:

    ALL the main polls (Newspoll, Westpoll and Morgan) put the Coalition in front by as much as 56 to 44 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. This is despite Gallop’s high preferred premier ratings. Ahead in the polls, the Coalition is the favourite.

    On February 26, 2005, Gallop and Labor won the state election convincingly.”
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22311318-7583,00.html

  35. [The Australian has an interesting go at one of Howard’s biographers, showing some of his poor predictions:]

    What thay don’t tell you that Van Onselen was a former staffer to a WA Liberal Senator, whose name escapes me atm, so he is hardly an objective observer. Also, in WA the LIbs had Colin BArnett, who is doing everying that Howard is doing atm, and is paying for it big time. 🙂

  36. Ross Lightfoot? Surely he wins the Bill Heffernan Award for concerted stupidity (Heffernan himself isn’t eligible, because everyone knows he would win it every year).

  37. The Herald Sun –
    PRIME Minister John Howard is adrift in the polls and facing humiliating defeat as he strives for a fifth term.

    We ask four experts: What does John Howard have to do to win the federal election?
    http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22310368-5000117,00.html

    John Stone recommends playing the race-card on muslims and $50 billion tax cuts [ie. no surpluses]. Good way to stuff the country up Mr Stone.

    Me advice would be to hold an early election to limit losses.

  38. William Bowe Says:
    August 27th, 2007 at 3:16 am

    [That last one is weak. “Gallop and Labor won the state election convincingly”? Where did he say they wouldn’t?]

    Unless they got it from a “Quote” From The West 🙂 You know how balanced and even Handed Paul Armstrong is, don’t we William ? 🙂

    Yes, I know a Rhetorical Question.

  39. That’s okay, Frank, no offence taken. We Territorians are used to being left out of the national discussion. It does have its advantages. 😉 However, the internet era has kinda changed that.

  40. The NT News gets criticised a bit and never seems to me to be too political at a federal level – except for Sundays when they have a Peter Murphy columnist, he is basically acting like a Liberal party campaigner.

    I think he was an ex CLP adviser/staffer. Anyway he doesn’t miss a chance to promote Howard and dump on Rudd. I dont think many read his column though, its mostly trash.

  41. Galaxy has a great reputation utterly stupid, pointless, leading questions in their polls. Such as: asking people if they think think the government should use the surplus to “Buy its way to an election victory”.

    On their own heads be it.

    But as long as they precede these questions with the important stuff, like how people intend to vote, I don’t see that it affects the rest of the survey.

  42. Murphy is a rabid ideological twit, who reflexively dumps on anyone and anything to the left of Howard. Nobody takes much notice of him.

    The NT News was widely and justifiably known for over two decades as the CLP Daily, but it has become more moderate over the last few years, and now it (a Murdoch paper) is sometimes accused by the CLP opposition and their few remaining supporters of being the Labor Daily. My how things can change. LOL.

  43. GREAT NEWS FOR LABOR!!! They’re up to 57 in the most conservative-biased poll; that goes pretty well with the 60 in Morgan ph last week.

Comments Page 2 of 8
1 2 3 8

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *