The night before Newspoll

In an effort to keep the previous thread at least partly on topic, I hereby open a new one for purposes of general chatter. Perhaps you might like to take a shot at guessing Tuesday’s Newspoll result, which seems to be an increasingly popular parlour game among the leisured classes. Ever so much water has passed under the bridge since the 56-44 result of last fortnight: an interest rate increase, a new round of Liberal leadership tension and last week’s stock market dive. Newspoll is conducted from Friday through to Sunday, so Kevin Rudd’s New York misadventure is unlikely to be much of a factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

415 comments on “The night before Newspoll”

Comments Page 5 of 9
1 4 5 6 9
  1. [Do the Liberals have any form of long-term strategy?]

    We’ll find out as soon as Howard returns from the Stationary Cabinet after stealing a few envelopes 🙂

  2. “I want to lead this country again because I believe Australia can now set its sights even higher. Because the new Australian synthesis of aspiration and fairness is everywhere in progress, but nowhere complete.” says Howard in link at #202

    sounds almost Hegelian to me…

  3. Long-term strategy of the Liberals? To crush workers, their unions and consequently the Labor Party. Using Work”Choices” as the stealth weapon.

  4. Glen, two comments from LP which may shine a bit of light on the subject for you.

    {There’s certainly nothing to get into a lather of indignation about, even if your invented and imaginary opponents refuse to respond as you would wish.}

    {Please, its getting boring, report to Liberal Central and tell them you tried, but nobody’s listening.}

  5. I second that Fagin. It certainly would be a less interesting blog without Glen. Who else could I bait and sling the occasional smart alec comment at?

  6. Gee, I hope the weather is not cold during APEC.

    Water cannon to be used on APEC protesters

    The New South Wales Government has unveiled a high-pressure water cannon that it says will be used to disperse any violent protesters at next month’s APEC summit.

    Premier Morris Iemma says the $600,000 US-built cannon will knock unruly protesters off their feet.

    Mr Iemma says it will be used when public safety and property are under threat, and before situations spiral out of control.

    “The water cannon truck will only be used in extreme cases of major public disorder…” he said in a statement.

    “Any protesters who are considering violent disruptions during the APEC conference should count this as a warning.”

    Police Minister David Campbell says the cannon has a 360-degree aim and can shoot water more than 50 metres.
    http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/20/2009478.htm

  7. Glenny, please get this through your thick wingnut head: who went to a strip club, when and with whom is monumentally unimportant to most of us here, no matter what side of politics they are on.

    Your persistent acusations that we would be ganging up on Howard if, for example it came out he’d had a long-standing affair with one of his senior public servants, for instance, are merely a projection of your own warped outlook on things.

    Sex scandals are important to you, mate, not us. You protesteth far too much about this one.

  8. One of Howard’s “wedges” is refusing to fit in the slot as he had hoped.

    {The Tasmanian Government has agreed to accept the Commonwealth’s offer to take over the Mersey Hospital.

    However, State Cabinet says it will only agree to the proposal on the basis that the Commonwealth buys the Mersey for use as a private hospital at a nominal cost of $1 and takes control as soon as possible.

    The Premier, Paul Lennon, is also demanding a guarantee that the Tasmania’s public health system will not be punished or have its funds reduced.}
    http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/20/2009948.htm

  9. I think Rudd’s adventure will be a wash in next fortnight’s poll.

    I’ll take 57/43 in tomorrow’s poll sweepstakes. We should put up a chook or a fruit basket or something.

  10. Am I right that both Mumble and Ozpolitics ignored the last Morgan? There was a morgan, face to face released late last week wasn’t there?

  11. Re: Glen.

    It seems more and more difficult to distinguish between the dedicated troll, and the delusional, free-republic style right-winger.

    I suppose it is the case where life emulates artful parody.

    There are very real reasons to be careful of Kevin Rudd and the Labor party – Glen lists nearly none of them, instead going for cheap shots devoid of substance.

    Glen’s posts speak of wish-fulfilment and Fox style ‘talking points’.

    He wishes dearly, in the absence of reasoned thought, that this episode will kill Kruddy’s chances.

    A fairly balanced view of things would say that whilst it is not really a very good look for an aspirational Prime Minister, it is hardly catastrophic.

    I doubt those who say it will go well for him, but I can hardly see it going terribly bad either. If anything, fairly neutral.

    Nothing to see here folks, move along.

  12. 141
    J-D Says:
    {‘Aspirational nationalism’?
    ‘Core promises’?
    ‘Headland speeches’?
    ‘Incentivation’?

    Why does John Howard hate the English language so much?}

    “Australia Rising”

    You can add “Australia Rising” to this list. Is this some communist totalitarian double speak? What does this mean? Whoever uses terms like rising? Like the Rising Sun? Japan? Emperor Hirohito???
    What the…?

  13. From the Christian LObby about Rudd losing votes.

    [The head of a Christian lobby group says Labor Leader Kevin Rudd is unlikely to lose many votes because of his drunken night in a New York strip club.

    Mr Rudd admits drinking so much he cannot remember much about the night in 2003.

    Mr Rudd is a Christian and he recently addressed a rally organised by the Australian Christian Lobby.

    The lobby’s Jim Wallace says some of the audience from the rally will be concerned after hearing the story about the strip club.

    “I think it might affect a very small proportion of it who perhaps had concerns and this might cause them to go the other way,” he said.

    “But I think the great majority will release we are Christians, we do all err and this is very much out of character and as a result this will probably not change their vote.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/20/2010031.htm

  14. Actually, while I am at it, I will try for the reverse smear:

    “DOWNER REFUSES TO DENY SMEAR ALLEGATION

    Foreign Minister Alexander Downer today refused to deny mounting speculation that he was the source of the unproven allegations that Kevin Rudd was thrown out of a New York strip club for ‘inappropriate behaviour’.

    Mr Rudd denies the allegation, as do all those present with him at the time.

    Today, Mr Downer refused to answer questions on the issue of whether or not he leaked the story to the press.”

    Hrrmmmm… not bad!

  15. Scorpio – i think the most damaging aspect of Rudd’s night in NY is the fact that he was representing Australia – at taxpayers expense. This would stand if it was Abbott or Costello or Downer. You and I are in agreement. I think unfortunately for the Liberals this fact will be lost on the public, who’ll focus on the more titillating elements of the story.

    My point about Downer stands, he’s botched the attack by getting his grubby little finger prints all over the story. Abbott, i believe wouldn’t have made this mistake.

  16. Is there any evidence that Rudd’s extra mural activities while overseas cost the taxpayers a cent?

    At least he didn’t see a bush at scores. 🙂

  17. Tim,
    {Abbott, i believe wouldn’t have made this mistake.}

    Yeah, totally agree with you on this one.

    Abbott’s political, tactical abilities, even though flawed as shown during the recent “mud slinging” episodes, are streets ahead of Downer’s.

    I can still see Howard’s grubby little, desperate hands in this. Behind the scenes of course. He is a master of getting other people to take the flak if it doesn’t go quite to plan.

  18. Glen’s No Spin Zone….

    #186

    Chifley – while still married he conducted a long term affair with his secretary

    “Chifley went too far with nationalisation but i did like him using the army to break the coal strikes, depends whether it was common knowledge before or during his time in office if it came out later meh :)”

    Menzies – officiated at the Suez peace talks in Egypt with a bottle of whiskey handy. Nasser referred to him (contemptuously) as the ‘bushman’.

    “Whats wrong with that is that the best thing you can come up with on Menzies our greatest ever Prime Minister”

    Holt – conducted a number of extra-marital affairs (confirmed in his widow’s auto-biography).

    “That does question he character and not look favourably of him but his image as a good looking bloke sure helped him with the chick vote of course but i dont remember him whilst abroad going to strip clubs in Washington DC before he said he’d go all the way with LBJ…he didnt disgrace the country in those regards unlike Rudd”

    Gorton – womanizer and alcoholic. My favourite PM.

    “I agree with you too…he was a larakin but he didnt do it to offend people and he didnt get up to shannagins whilst overseas representing his country and then blaming it on the piss…i like Gorton because he was in favour of an Australian nuclear capacity that included the building ‘atomic bombs’ ”

    McMahon – such an abysmal prime-minister that if he had been a womanizer it might have redeemed him a bit.

    “Actually it has been rumoured that the reason ‘Black Jack’ hated him so much was that he thought McMahon was a homosexual…so dont know if he was a womanizer”

    As ive said before its not the fact that he went to one its that
    – He went to one when he was overseas at the taxpayers expense representing Australia
    – He didnt tell Crean or anybody bar his wife until now obviously gutless because it would dent his political career
    – He blames Downer for it all when had he come clean in 2003 he wouldnt be in this mess in the first place
    -He uses the excuse that he drank too much to remember what happened but he’s sure he acted like a gentleman…hmmmmm

  19. I hope to hell that Howard isn’t wanting to keep troops in Iraq to get involved with this.

    Cheney urging strikes on Iran

    {At a news conference Thursday, Bush said Iran had been warned of unspecified consequences if it continued its alleged support for anti-American forces in Iraq. U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker had conveyed the warning in meetings with his Iranian counterpart in Baghdad, the president said.

    Bush wasn’t specific, and a State Department official refused to elaborate on the warning.

    Behind the scenes, however, the president’s top aides have been engaged in an intensive internal debate over how to respond to Iran’s support for Shiite Muslim groups in Iraq and its nuclear program. Vice President Dick Cheney several weeks ago proposed launching airstrikes at suspected training camps in Iran run by the Quds force, a special unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to two U.S. officials who are involved in Iran policy.}
    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/18834.html

  20. YOU CANT TOUCH THIS –

    If the Coalition was/is looking to besmirch (is that a proper word ?) Rudd in his home State I am afraid it hasn’t worked.

    The Courier Mail (p3) stated that the majority of the electorate voting on the paper poll thought it wouldnt do damage and somewhat humanised his ‘wowzer’ image.

    The page 3 story stated that Rudd appears to be “bullet proof”. ie The Coaliton can not lay a mark on him, even when he is being ‘naughty Kev’. I think that says it all- As others have said , this will be a dead issue come next week.

    What I found interesting (thanks for the link Adam @ 57) is that the WorkChoices Ads run by the Government have been once again confirmed to be reinforcing fears about workchoices rather than releiving them-

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/government-workplace-ads-backfire/2007/08/20/1187462123579.html.

    This is a dog whistle for Labor being blown by the Coalition at their own expense: classic. Howard shifted to the left (‘fairness test’) and is getting clobbered for it.

    The mud they threw at Rudd over ‘stripper gate’ may well turn into a face lift (he is human, not a complete nerd). They really should give up on trying to attack Rudd, its a no brainer loser for the Coalition.

    Nobody is going to be swung away from Labor by the NT Intervention because Kev went “me too” on it.

    Howard’s ‘lets take over the east coast Ports’ is not exactly a swinging voter grabber.

    Workchoices is hurting still, and the Coalition keep on paying to get hurt by it.

    Beattie has backed down on prosecuting or sacking Councils who want to run a plebescite on election day conceding that he “stuffed up” on the issue in tThe Courier Mail today. Damage is already done Mr.Premier, but the jury is out on how much damage it will do.

    What Howard needs is a BIG shift in voter intent on a pet hate of the electorate. For example, he could come out and say,

    “OK guys, we are taking over the HEALTH system, box and dice, there has been too much blame game politics associated with this fundamental human rights issue (shift radically toward the left ) and we, the Federal Government, are going to invest the bulk of the budget surplus in taking over health from the State Governments”

    Of course Howard won’t do that because then he would be very open to the accusation of being economically irresponsible and driving up interest rates in November and ‘scaring the horses’ into beleiving Rudd is a safer bet on the economy.

    Notheless, I think the Coalition need something as ‘radically left’ as this to shift the electorate back towards the Coalition.

    Tit-bits like sending letters to the Iraqi Government and threatening to withdraw military support, going hell for leather with ‘law and order’ reforms in the NT, investment’s in saw mills (NSW), hospitals (TAS) freeways (SA) council plebiscites (QLD) etc will not do it.

    Howard would have to come up with something BIG, and then all Rudd will have to do is say ‘Oh yeah, how are you going to pay for it Mr Whitlam/ Howard, you cant just “spend, spend, spend” {Malcom Fraser}. The End.

  21. Just watched Channel Seven News and I’m convinced by the way it was covered that ‘Strippergate’ is already dying. The government is very angry and disappointed as they thought this would be a stake through the heart for Rudd. Anyway, hopefully we’ll now be able to get back to the real issues and leave this silly nonsense behind.

  22. “Scorpio Says:
    August 20th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
    One of Howard’s “wedges” is refusing to fit in the slot as he had hoped.”

    That has to be the quote of this whole saga.

  23. ‘get back to the real issues and leave this silly nonsense behind’

    We need an election and a change of government for that.

  24. I’m watching Channel 9 Sydney News. “Strippergate” didn’t get a mention until 7 minutes into the bulletin. Speed Cameras and a few local stories were considered of more importance.
    Yep, I agree it’s another 2 day wonder!
    Many of us are more interested in Rudd’s actual policy proposals/agenda for the future.

  25. I must say I certainly look forward to Glen’s replies on this blog – they’re always good for a laugh and definitely keep me entertained. Almost as hilarious as Dennis Shanahan’s subtly satirical political columns. Keep those comments coming Glen!

    Anyway about the next Newspoll – I say the 2PP will be 57:43 in Labor’s favour.

  26. Go Allanah 🙂

    [The Federal Government has been told to fix Perth Airport, before attempting to take over other Western Australian infrastructure.

    Planning and Infrastructure Minister Alannah MacTiernan said airports and telecommunications were the only infrastructure for which Canberra had responsibility, and the standard of delivery of both in WA was at best mediocre.

    “Western Australians should be very suspicious of attempts by the Federal Government to move in on infrastructure,” Ms MacTiernan said.

    “Canberra has no experience in constructing and managing roads, ports or other transport infrastructure, except for airports.

    “In WA, even Liberal MPs are publicly begging the Federal Minister to do something about the overcrowding and delays at Perth’s privatised domestic terminal.]

    http://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/media/media.nsf/news/1364ABEE04480F83C825733D00282972?opendocument

  27. “Hawke, just like Howard was trying to stave off generational change. Thankfully, the Labor Government did not fall for the ‘current Leader is immortal’ nonsense that this current Liberal Government is trying to sell.

    The public knew Hawke was a piss pot and womaniser and elected him PM on four seperate occaissions.” – Greensborough Growler

    Wrong. The ALP dumped Jellyback because he had become an utter liability; now, I know it’s hard for you to accept unpalatable truths, but by 1991 Hawke was a joke in the electorate (and still is; most people can’t stand the sight of his leathery, adulterous hide ). I repeat, his approval rating was in the mid-20s, and there was absolutely no way he was going to win another election for Labor. Generational change had nothing to do with it; it was simply about getting rid of the embarrassing old boozehound because he was so on the nose.

    And part of that stemmed from his betrayal of Hazel. Most people did NOT know of his womanising, since he only publically admitted to it in 1989. And that admission merely hastened his descent into terminal unpopularity, and he only just fluked a win in 1990 thanks to Richo’s grubby deal with the Greens.

    And once again, I remind you that Hawke was never able to secure a pro-Government swing in any of the elections he contested as PM, whereas Mr Howard has done it twice in a row, only the second time that’s happened since the 2 Party system was introduced in 1949.

  28. To put some balance on things.

    I couldn’t give a flying crap about Rudd getting pissed and going to a stripper’s club.

    If anything, I’m annoyed at Rudd and his backing of Howard on Haneef, council amalgamations and other actual issues.

    Unless Rudd actually starts taking out a baseball bat and taking swings at random pedestrians, this smear campaign is just absolute rubbish that no one cares about.

  29. Steven,

    Why do you rely on poll data when you routinely eschew the current polls as a figment of everyone’ imagination?

    You have no credibility.

  30. Two great comic moments from Glen
    1. That Rudd disgaced Australia by spending less than an hour in a strip club.
    2. That failing to report this night out to Simon Crean when he got back.

    2. Is very funny. Could you imagine Rudd fronting up to Crean in 2003 and telling him that he had been to a stripclub in New York. It my have gone somthing like this:

    Rudd: Simon, last week when I was in NY I went a strip club with Warren and a Murdoch minion.

    Crean: …….ok

  31. Evan @229 says

    Many of us are more interested in Rudd’s actual policy proposals/agenda for the future.

    Agree wholeheartedly Evan. Rudd has tried to push the ‘Im going to do what you do {economic conservatism} but look after “working families” as well’ in his TV ads at the moment. But he will need to sell to the electorate HOW he is going to do that without ‘scaring the horses’.

    How, specifically [in laymans terms please] is he going to ‘keep interest rates down/low’ ? and How, specifically, is he going to balance the interests of business and a ‘growing economy’ with doing more for ‘working families’ ?

    His ‘alternative’ industrial relations policy is out, but I couldnt tell you anyone who could tell me what it is called, let alone how it will work-

    Maybe they are concerned about it turning into a ‘birthday cake and candles’ (Hewson-GST) and ‘scaring the horses’ so they keep it in the background ?

    Howard’s ADs on Workchoices ‘fairness test’ is ‘scaring the horses’ . Still, I agree with the notion that Rudd has to do more to sell the ‘me too, but better and this is how’ approach to a strong economy and looking after ‘working families’.

    If he has a policy that is going to work, he should be out there selling it to the electorate. If he hasnt, he no more deserves to govern this country than JWH.

    I wouldnt vote for Howard in a pink fit, but I’d rather vote for Rudd on the grounds that he has a GENUINE alternative vision for Australia which the punters can (a) understand and (b) want to give him a chance to implement. I think he does: I just want to hear it from him, and soon.

  32. [2. Is very funny. Could you imagine Rudd fronting up to Crean in 2003 and telling him that he had been to a stripclub in New York. It my have gone somthing like this:

    Rudd: Simon, last week when I was in NY I went a strip club with Warren and a Murdoch minion.

    Crean: …….ok]

    Or more likely:

    Crean: You lucky Bugger…… Did you score ?

    Rudd: Nope, was a bit confronted by it all and left after 20 minutes or so.

  33. Steven Kaye=moron. You talk about australias most popular Prime Minister, a man who has made this country what it is today no thanx to the chief economic wrecker mr 22% interest rates. 12% unemployment. and unmentionable inflation rates little johnny . Come November you and the rest of your so called “LIBERALS” can emigrate to mississippi where the rodent and his supporters views will complement each other in those surrounds.

  34. Adam

    The basis for the story about Howard liking a bottle or two.

    JOHN Howard has admitted addressing Federal Parliament while drunk.

    “I had a couple of South Australian reds . . . I remember that night, yes. I can’t dispute the story,”

    “The more he walked, the less he drank
    The Prime Minister showed signs of stumbling under the pressure yesterday, tripping up in Perth as he entered a radio studio and falling heavily on his hands and knees.

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22130111-952,00.html

    John Howard’s wine bill for Kirribilli House and the Lodge financial year 2000-01 through to 30 April 2007 $192,578

    JOHN Howard has admitted addressing Federal Parliament while drunk during his so-called “wilderness years” after losing the Liberal leadership in 1989.
    A new biography on Australia’s second-longest serving Prime Minister reveals Mr Howard was deeply affected by his 1989 loss to Andrew Peacock, breaking down in a tearful apology to staff and sometimes drinking too much.
    “Without the responsibility of a leadership role, Howard would on occasion drink more heavily than he should,” the book, John Winston Howard : A Life by Peter van Onselen and Wayne Errington, says.
    On one occasion, after over-indulging at a farewell dinner for a close friend in 1990, Mr Howard admitted entering the chamber drunk.
    “I had a couple of South Australian reds . . . I remember that night, yes. I can’t dispute the story,” he told the authors. Early morning walks helped Mr Howard overcome the drinking.
    He started pounding the pavement at the instigation of “fitness fanatic” Tony Abbott, who was working as a press secretary for John Hewson.
    “Abbott told Howard about the benefits of jogging, so Howard met him half way and decided to start walking,” the book says.

  35. PS: Im tipping 57-43 for the upcoming poll and 53-47 come November. Good enough to win Govenment with 7-10 seat majority (conservatively).

  36. Evan and Paul K…the fact that the media has so much sympathy and arent pursuing him at all over the issue shows how the media is lock and step with the ALP god help the ALP if their policies/leader were scrutinized like the Coalition…

    I have lost all faith in the media to scrutinize both the Government and the Opposition fairly…

    No Spin Zone

  37. Steven Kaye’s comments on this blog are hilarious too … I don’t think the word chutzpah is adequate to describe #232. Mind you he is just a tiny bit creative with the facts. I’m sure Bob Hawke secured a swing to Labor in 1987: Labor gained 4 seats in the House while the Coalition (under that great and humble visionary leader John Howard) lost 4 seats. But that is just a minor detail which pales into insignificance compared to the momentous 0.94% swing in the 2PP to the Coalition in that election.

    I also admire Cerdic Conan’s eccentric sense of humour on this blog. What’s happened to him lately?

  38. Glen Spluttered:

    [ have lost all faith in the media to scrutinize both the Government and the Opposition fairly…]

    Does this include your Beloved News Ltd which “Broke” Strippergate, and Messers Milne Shanahan and Kelly and Price who kiss the ground walked upon by Howard and his Ministers ?

  39. Glen,

    They’re not “pursuing” him because there’s nothing to pursue. He was drunk. He spent his own money and was there for 40 minutes. Big Deal. You’re flogging a dead horse. Move on and talk about something important and leave the petty rumors and old wives tales for another blog. There’s no story to pursue.

  40. {Wrong. The ALP dumped Jellyback because he had become an utter liability; now, I know it’s hard for you to accept unpalatable truths, but by 1991 Hawke was a joke in the electorate (and still is; most people can’t stand the sight of his leathery, adulterous hide ). I repeat, his approval rating was in the mid-20s, and there was absolutely no way he was going to win another election for Labor. Generational change had nothing to do with it; it was simply about getting rid of the embarrassing old boozehound because he was so on the nose.}

    Steven Kaye, what you posted there is typical of the misinformation spinning out of Liberal Control Central and is utter tripe.

    (1) Hawke was and has never been as you say a “joke in the electorate”. He still, for all his faults, which apparently you and your idols in the current Government don’t have any, is still very popular in the minds of most of the population.

    (2) It was not “generational change” as such but the culmination of the ambitions of his deputy, Paul Keating who successfully undermined him in the party and in the media such that he was able to advance to the “top job”. Unlike one of your hero’s Costello who doesn’t have the “bottle” to challenge.

    (3) Hawke at the time was a “non drinker” who was far from being a “embarrassing old boozhound” and was a long way from “being on the nose” as you so in-elegantly put it.

    I do so like this type of “re-writing of history”. You Libs have been influenced so much by Howard now that you all “lie” as well as him.
    Bob Hawke has had his time in the sun. He is not the PM. Is not running for PM. Give us something we can hang our hat on and some sort of even, partial reason why the Rodent should even get the remotest skerrik of support to remain in power and you might, just might, have some creditability. Sorry old son, you don’t have “ANY”.

Comments Page 5 of 9
1 4 5 6 9

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *