The night before Newspoll

In an effort to keep the previous thread at least partly on topic, I hereby open a new one for purposes of general chatter. Perhaps you might like to take a shot at guessing Tuesday’s Newspoll result, which seems to be an increasingly popular parlour game among the leisured classes. Ever so much water has passed under the bridge since the 56-44 result of last fortnight: an interest rate increase, a new round of Liberal leadership tension and last week’s stock market dive. Newspoll is conducted from Friday through to Sunday, so Kevin Rudd’s New York misadventure is unlikely to be much of a factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

415 comments on “The night before Newspoll”

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  1. Actually, people surveyed today would have had time to consider the news of Rudd’s appalling lack of judgment as Shadow Foreign Minister while on a taxpayer-funded trip just 4 years ago.

  2. They will also have had time to consider the fact that the federal Treasurer and Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party is a treacherous coward and bare-faced liar. Tough choices for the punters.

  3. I wont try and guess the numbers but my money is on the Libs going backwards in this latest Newspoll as I think Rudd, on the whole, has had the better time of it since the previous Newspoll.

  4. Sideline, I hope you’re right. This “issue” has certainly generated more online blog comments than I’ve seen in some time.

    We’ll have some idea of the effect of this story as soon as the Newspoll numbers come out. Might take more than one poll, though, for the issue to wash over.

  5. Will Kevin Rudd’s strip club admission affect your vote? Ninemsnpoll

    Yes 56660

    The computers at Liberal HQ must be running white hot.

  6. William,

    Can I suggest you do a Weekly Saturday Salon type of post where general political not tied to a particular topic can be posted to ?

    On Newspoll, People contacted today would’ve read the papers and watched insiders, Sunday & Meet the Press and heard it on radio etc so it may be an issue.

  7. Well Adam i think your sentiments can also be adjudged to Rudd…

    “treacherous coward and bare-faced liar”…

    1) He used Rosanna Harris as a stunt and lied to her on national television telling her she’d be 50 dollars better off…
    2) Rudd didnt come clean about strippergate until it was aired by Milne…thus Rudd has be dishonest to the public for 4 long years…and why you ask? Because Adam your Saint Kev would have been sacked for that sleazy escapade in New York…Rudd is a disgrace to the nation and a coward for not coming clean in 2003 because Crean would have canned his sorry behind.

    I predict 55-45 the stock market jitters should help the Coalition…in other words no change at all.

  8. nath, I concur. 57 – 43.

    I used to work for Newspoll in my uni days. The Sunday involved cleaning up the last of the required sample, and was often a pretty small number of interviews. Rudd gettng sh*tfaced and seeing a pair of norks four years ago was revealed too late to have much impact on the poll being released this Tuesday. (And should boost his standing anyway, when and if it does impact.)

  9. I quite liked this one.

    {It would be interesting to know who the conservative pollies and journo’s were who were entertained at the recently disclosed Packer bordello in Brisbane. }

    The polls would go into meltdown if this issue breaks out like some would like to see.

  10. I think Newspoll will be 55/45

    Incidently, there is some Labor polling on Wentworth in Michell Grattan’s Monday op-ed:

    “Liberals say Turnbull’s polling is good. Labor polling a few weeks ago had Turnbull on 47 per cent, Newhouse 42 per cent and Greens 11 per cent.)”

  11. Looks like Howard wants to make a big impression on any future polls.

    PM promises more federal takeovers

    {JOHN HOWARD will today step up his assault on the Labor states with a warning that the recent spate of Commonwealth interventions is a sign of things to come if the Coalition is re-elected.

    In a speech to be delivered in Sydney the Prime Minister will urge Australians to ignore the traditional relationship between the tiers of government and become aspirational nationalists.}

  12. [Looks like Howard wants to make a big impression on any future polls.]

    In other words, he has turned his chaotic do whatever whenever approach to federalism into a speech! His policy is still a dog’s breakfast, but at least now he can say it’s a “doctrine”.

  13. Glen, Steve & Co think the Rudd issue mon’y go down to well with the Women’s Electoral Lobby and other Women’s groups.

    Looks as though they;re wrong.

    Women’s groups unwilling to criticise

    {Women’s organisations and church groups remained particularly silent on Mr Rudd’s night out.

    “If we hanged every bloke who was stupid, there wouldn’t be many left,” National Foundation for Australian Women spokeswoman Marie Coleman said.

    Women’s Electoral Lobby spokeswoman and prominent feminist Eva Cox said Mr Rudd had a generally good attitude towards women.

    “It’s not something that represents his usual behaviour,” she said. },23599,22271737-2,00.html

    Love the second paragraph here.

  14. Wow the National Foundation for Australian Women wont chastise someone who has degraded women wow ive seen everything now…but i bet they are full of left winger ALP members so meh!

    Just shows how soft we are with Saint Kev…what a joke we wouldnt have proper accountability of the Opposition if it werent for people like Milne…

    Simon at least Howard has a policy…instead of a schmuck who hasnt the foresight to have detailed policy and wont take a tax policy to the election…wow take your pick a bloke with a record…experience…vision and then take a bloke who supports ECHOnomics and who has no record or experience and who follows the government lock and step with all of our popular measures…

    Howard’s back in the game…leading instead of following…Rudd should try this for a change.

  15. Glen Mutters:

    [Just shows how soft we are with Saint Kev…what a joke we wouldnt have proper accountability of the Opposition if it werent for people like Milne]

    Milne is a drunkard fool who assaulted a fellow journalist on Live Television. He’s about as credible as Milli Vanilli.

  16. Scorpio, of course the Women’s Electoral Lobby won’t actually criticise Rudd over this; now, if it had been a member of the Government, they’d be baying for his head (or another body part). We all know what slimy hypocrites Cox and co. are.

    I see Rudd’s media pals are already trying to laugh this off; sadly for him, this will have real resonance with that part of the electorate who expects better behaviour from a Prime Ministerial aspirant.

  17. It’ll be interesting to see how Rudd fares in Newspoll’s Preferred PM stakes. I reckon it’ll be a slight rise – the “Clinton effect”!

  18. I’ve always thought Milli Vanilli was cool.

    Cool, arguably. Credible, absolutely NOT.

    Newspoll: 58-42, in line with Morgan.

  19. Strippergate is already running out of steam. No new revelations in the papers today (except for the suggestions Downer has known about it for some time), so unless there is a breakthrough it is going to die pretty quickly.

    Govt won’t openly touch it because of fears that when parliament returns in mid-September, every MP will be asked if they’ve ever been to a strip club. And it’s London to a brick that some of them have.

    Debate today will move to the PM’s plans for federalism.

  20. So Glen – its stripper gate is it?
    If we put “gate” on the end it must be bad.

    How about Tampa gate or Iraq Gate or I adressed parliament drunk gate or non-core promises gate?

    Sorry Glen, I try to look at these things objectively but when we scream about the speck of dust in your opponents eye but ignore the log in your own mans eye.

    It was “speck of dust” and “a log”?

    Anyway why would you bring this up yourself – Who in their right mind dobs themselves in.

  21. I think that the primary split is somewhere around 46 / 41.
    With the 2pp 54-55.

    Besides errors and the obvious Morgan bias some “soft” liberals voters seem to jump ship but then drift back.

    While the Brian Burke thing hurt the coalition for a few polls I think it was only “soft” liberals who jumped ship. They were always going to go back.

    The next poll was before the Greg Milne story broke but after the interest rate rise and the Costello debacle. 1-2 % may jump ship again so I’d expect the polls to be 56 – 57 for the ALP. However they’d probably settle at 54% come election day.

    Rightly or wrongly – there is a real feeling in the community that the people want Rudd to be Prime Minister. Its like the Hawke thing 20 odd years ago.

    The only problem is that the devastation it might cause the future alternative government if good smart people like Turnbull, Costello and Abbott (you can see he hates bending the truth on telly – loyalty will make you do some bad things) are gone.

    I don’t think Costello and Abbott will lose their seats, however a new broom will see them gone.

  22. ALP: 56

    How unedifying that our esteemed Foreign Minister and Australia’s representative abroad, is nothing but a sleaze merchant and dirt digger!
    Lord Downer crying on Election Night: that’d be the icing on the cake for me LOL

  23. These online polls are giving the wrong options for their question about Rudd. It should be something like:
    Does it affect Rudds chances?
    Yes-Improves them
    Yes-Worsens them

    Everyone seems to assume that a yes is bad for Rudd, but it might not be.

  24. If – if – Rudd’s moment of indiscretion four years ago has alienated a few feminist voters, where will they take their votes? To the Coalition and an implicit endorsement of WorkChoices, which is eroding women’s pay and conditions and widening the income gap between men and women? Not likely!

    They will stay with Labor or move to the Greens, who are likely to pass their party’s preferences to Labor anyway.

    If Rudd has upset a few wowserish hardcore Christians, no real loss as those folk are likely to be Liberal or Family First voters.

    So not much loss for Rudd. Maybe even a slight positive as people will see him now as a human sort of bloke – rather that the glossy too-perfect visage (which could never be sustained anyway).

  25. Evan wrote:

    “How unedifying that our esteemed Foreign Minister and Australia’s representative abroad, is nothing but a sleaze merchant and dirt digger!”

    Well what do you expect? He is partial to fishnet stockings!

  26. Firemaker at 28. the only gate involved is “close the gate”.

    Given Morgan’s 2% bias, I suggest 60-40 to Labor.

  27. Glen: If we had proper accountability in government, the majority of the Liberal front bench would be gone.

    From Downer and AWB, Andrews and Ruddock over Haneef, Nelson over wasted defence expenditure and the list goes on. And that’s not even including Mr. “Children Overboard – I never take responsibility for anything” Howard.

    Meanwhile, Costello when drunk, doesn’t go to strip clubs but plans his takeover of the Liberal party, whereas Howard when drunk, addresses parliament.

  28. Actually, where does the Downer’s fishnet stocking thing come from. Is it just his plumy accent and general level of stupidity or is the some subtaince behind the tag?

  29. I predict Newspoll 58-42. But then with margin of error taken into account, my choice is technically anywhere from 55-45 to 61-39.

    In respect of the ‘Women’s Lobby” and Rudd going to a club where women were scantily clad and maybe naked. i don’t think they are hypocrites at all.

    If Rudd knew he was going to a strip club, then he has exercised bad judgment in respect of the venue.

    If Rudd did not know he was going to a strip club, then he has merely exercised bad judgement about going out pissed.

    There is no evidence he knew where they were going – so how can he be criticised for this?

  30. Rx said

    If Rudd has upset a few wowserish hardcore Christians, no real loss as those folk are likely to be Liberal or Family First voters.

    Well my fickle swing-voter mother-in-law has decided to change her vote because of this strip club thing. She’s in a lib electorate, so that’s too bad. I guess it’s ok to demonise refugees, put kids behind razor wire and lie through your teeth to the country. But have a few drinks and a bit of a night on the town and you’re gone. Her husband is still voting for Rudd though

  31. The big loser out of this latest attempt to denigrate Rudd will be Downer. But then he seems hell bent on making himself look more foolish as each day goes by. Methinks that his biggest worry is that he will be the only one left post election – and then what will he do – import Condi?

    Clearly the only sensible thing is to encourage the people of Mayo to elect someone with both brains and credibility. Actually with Howard’s new “aspirational nationalism” – perhaps Lord Downer can become a local mayor or something.

    Of course none of this will be reflected in Tuesday’s Newspoll – but I am sure that it will show a swing away from the Coalition.

  32. I predict 57-43 in Newspoll and am more worried about the market meltdown having an impact. Rudd’s stripper business will have a very marginal impact, and probably many men will actually approve.

  33. Well, these comments from Martin O’Shannessy from Newspoll gives you some insight into what to expect.

    On ABC radio in Sydney:
    “This is one of those issues that will take people’s attention off policy for a while but … unless there are continuing and deeper mysteries coming out of this … it probably will have a fairly short life in the media and a fairly short life in the polls.”
    “I think both the major players have actually said what’s going to happen, that is that Mr Rudd will expect a brief hit in the polls but none of the potential combatants in the Liberal Party are going to come into this very heavily.
    “They’re staying away from it because I don’t think they perceive – unless there’s more to come out – that as it currently stands – there’s a big win in it for them.
    “The poll we’ve got coming up this week probably will include some punishment for the government over interest rates.”

  34. Its hard to say how much damage this will inflict on Rudd. I expect it will have some impact that will carry right through to the Polls.

    On the other hands the Coalition has now played the “we are prepared to go personal” card a long way out from the election. It leaves them with one less card to play in the campain and makes the higher moral ground trickier to hold.

    On the balance of tactics, I think Rudd is slightly ahead by defusing something that could have been very distructive in the last two weeks of the campain.

  35. Albert F Says: Actually, where does the Downer’s fishnet stocking thing come from. Is it just his plumy accent and general level of stupidity or is the some subtaince behind the tag?

    He once posed in fishnet stockings because some guy said he had nice ankles. A semi-lame attempt to appear human and self-deprecating, but didn’t take into consideration his actual personality. All it came out like was him being a pompous private school boy git that probably liked cross-dressing. Personally, I never really saw anything in it.

  36. Even without resorting to Howard’s relaxed standards of accountability, getting drunk and going to a strip club is not and never has been a sackable offence. If he thinks it is, perhaps Glen could go through both front benches and indicate which ministers/shadow ministers should be removed. If he thinks that only ALP shadow ministers have done such things then he is a fool; if he doesn’t he is a hypocrite.

    On another note is it a further sign of the Coalition’s increasingly degenerating competence that they have leaked this story at the precise time when it will have least impact on the polling cycle?

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