The night before Newspoll

In an effort to keep the previous thread at least partly on topic, I hereby open a new one for purposes of general chatter. Perhaps you might like to take a shot at guessing Tuesday’s Newspoll result, which seems to be an increasingly popular parlour game among the leisured classes. Ever so much water has passed under the bridge since the 56-44 result of last fortnight: an interest rate increase, a new round of Liberal leadership tension and last week’s stock market dive. Newspoll is conducted from Friday through to Sunday, so Kevin Rudd’s New York misadventure is unlikely to be much of a factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

415 comments on “The night before Newspoll”

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  1. Umm, This Experience thing is a crock of kaa kaa,Bob Hawke was elected leader 1 month before an Election and 3 on the trot.

    Yor point being ……

  2. I think a real change has to come from the federal liberal party, if they lose. They made a tactical error of leaving the centre empty and thats always the most attractive place to be.

    I am not sure of State Liberal parties but I suspect it might be a lack of talent. In the NT a liberal party [CLP] would be easily electable if we had one worth voting for.

  3. Glen,

    I have tried to ignore you and your cohorts but alas you have got the better of me.

    I see you continually distort and massage quotes from everyone till they fit you definition and your particular slant on what is being discussed.

    You remind me of my some when he was 4 years old. It was raining practically hard and I mentioned to my wife that it was raining “cats and dogs”. Mt son went to the window look and very crossly told me to stop “fibbing” as there were no cats and dogs out in the rain. My son is now in his mid twenties and a fine young man. He has grown up and has set aside the silly things of his childhood.

    In post #304 you have again distorted what Mr Rudd said.

    To paraphrase he said (on the 7.30 Report) that he had no recollection of seeing “lap dancers” or behaving in an inappropriate manner. However, as he had had too much to drink he could not guarantee that. However, his companions’ memory of that night corresponds with his memory.

    Now Glen (and your friends) my son grew up in 20 years so maybe there is hope for you yet but your distorted arguments need to improve by corresponding to what really happened or was said before you will convince a lot of us that you should be allowed out of the crèche.

    William, I must apologise but the need to respond to the BS coming from Glen et al was just too much.

    Hopefully it is now out of my system … for some time.

  4. Well Peter (or should we call you Pierre now?) some more news from home.
    Up here at Possum Creek we are having an early spring. The rainforest pigeons which come to gorge on the camphor laurel berries every year have now flown back up to the forest.
    The brush turkeys have arrived back right on cue and the male, as usual, is building a nest right in the middle of the new young trees.
    We have had to put bamboo stakes around all the new trees as the turkey will clear every gram of mulch and pile it up.
    We have had 140 mm of rain in the last three days, the first rain at all in six weeks. The tanks are now full again.
    Recently we had the coldest nights in twenty years and lost hundreds of young rainforest trees which froze. Full grown trees died. Ninety per cent survived however.
    We thought the cane toads had been frozen as well but they are out again enjoying the wet. The frogs are also singing in the creek.
    New sprouts are coming where the leaves died in the frost.
    It looks as though the coffee trees are gone though.
    The mother koala has a baby and is looking quite fat. She and the male spend a lot of time eating camphor leaves even though we planted hundreds of eucalypts for them. The possums have babies too and still run around the tin roof every night screeching and squabbling.
    We have been supplementary feeding the finches during winter and about a hundred firetails fly around our heads every morning waiting for seed.
    The grevilleas are out in full bloom as are the fringe wattles with their brilliant sprays of yellow blossoms. The honey eaters love it.
    The veggie garden has survived the winter well in spite of little rain and is producing well. The snow peas are delicious.
    Enjoy your time in la belle France.

  5. Frank Bob Hawke was head of the ACTU for decades…he had leadership experience whether you accept this fact or not…

    If the Liberals are out of office in every branch of Government in Australia they’ll be a lot of soul searching and a lot of glum looking faces mine included…because we’ll have little prospect of returning to power anywhere for years…many commentators have predicted disaster for the loser of the election…If the Libs lose they’ll be destroyed as a political force they once were and If the ALP lose they’ll be 5 straight on the trot with a leader on shaky ground…

  6. And Rudd was a senior Diplomat in DFAT as well with more postings than Downer’s Solitary posting to Brussels, which he’s still upset about.

    If that’s not experience, I don’t know what is.

  7. Labor cannot afford to lose this election. Howard has so politicised every element of democracy that at the next election he will be able to manipulate it to the extent of making it extraordinarily difficult for Labor to win.

    The balance must be returned and the:
    Commonwealth public service
    Security services
    non-govt agencies with govt appointed/funded members
    Parliamentary processes
    and so, need to be repaired and/or depoliticised.

  8. This experience argument is arse-about.

    Howard had no experience of being PM until elected to the office. Prior to ’96, his only experinece of high office, apart from running Billy McMahon’s autocue in ’72, was as Malcolm Fraser’s none-too-successful treasurer (during which gig he managed to set interest rate records that even PK couldn’t match). Yet in 1996 he was elected.

    A decade earlier, Hawke stormed-in in 1983 with 5-minutes experience as Labor leader and one term in Parliament.

    People don’t give a fig about anyone’s experiences except their own.
    And Howard’s given ’em a few experineces they’ll not soon forget, like Workchoices, involvement in a dodgy and unpopular war, a wasted 10 years worth of Government surpluses, a regime of accountability in Government that makes Mugabe look like a Parliamentary democrat and Interest rates that are the same-exactly the same-as they were when he walked into the job.

    And then there are the lies: Years of ’em. From the wharves dispute, thru “Weapons of mass destruction” and “Children overboard”, to the AWB bribes to Saddam and the big daddy of them all, “No-one will be worse off under Workchoices.”

    Yes, they’ve had plenty of “experience” of John Howard.

    I reckon the consistently solid ALP lead in the polls shows the conclusions they’ve drawn from it too.

  9. And Shrek is predictable as usual re a Petition by the ACTU to Rudd re Workchoices.

    [Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey said the petition was another indication of the union movement controlling Mr Rudd.

    “This is all part of the facade,” Mr Hockey said. “Don’t look at what they say; look at what they do. Kevin Rudd’s a patsy for the union bosses.” ],25197,22279836-601,00.html

    As opposed to Howard being a patsy for the ACCI & other “Business Unions”.

  10. Seems the Murdoch papers are beginning a new anti-Rudd campaign. They are pushing this night out to the max whilst giving Howard lots of oxygen for his Aspirational Nationalis madness. [the State destroyer]

  11. I think this bizarre new policy means: marginal seat porkism. Lucky dip nationalism.

    What a hapless, haphazard way to run federal public policy. And all announced at 10 minutes to midnight.

    The ALP can drive a truck through this one all day long, with radical ideas like:

    – infrastructure for all Australians, not just those in lib marginals.

    – a coordinated national approach v lucky dip giveaways.

  12. What is this, the Glen Blog? Mate, this is a blog about POLLS. If you want to rant and rave from such an obviously partisan perspective, surely there are other sites more suited to your particular brand of invective. And everyone else… let’s not rise to Glen’s baiting, huh?

    Workchoices -the policy that dare not speak its name- is easily the number one issue in my electorate, Stirling. As I have constant contact with the public through my work, I run frequent straw polls, as well as listening to people’s responses to the question: How’s the economy treating you?

    Liberal Michael Keenan’s razor-thin margin looks seriously threatened, and it’s working mothers who represent the greatest danger. Overwhelmingly, they are cynical about the government’s assurances on workplace security. The biggest issue -mentioned several times daily- is the sudden imposition of weekend shifts (sans penalty rates), drastically cutting the time available for whole-family interaction.

    The ALP is also running an impressive candidate in Peter Tinley, whose experiences as an SAS soldier in Afghanistan and Iraq will help counter the government’s supposed electoral advantage on security issues.

    Everyone I talk to is more than keen to flex their democracy muscle as soon as possible. as one woman put it: “I feel like a kid that’s been given an exciting looking present, and told I can’t open it until later.”

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