The night before Newspoll

In an effort to keep the previous thread at least partly on topic, I hereby open a new one for purposes of general chatter. Perhaps you might like to take a shot at guessing Tuesday’s Newspoll result, which seems to be an increasingly popular parlour game among the leisured classes. Ever so much water has passed under the bridge since the 56-44 result of last fortnight: an interest rate increase, a new round of Liberal leadership tension and last week’s stock market dive. Newspoll is conducted from Friday through to Sunday, so Kevin Rudd’s New York misadventure is unlikely to be much of a factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

415 comments on “The night before Newspoll”

Comments Page 2 of 9
1 2 3 9
  1. Martin maybe Galaxy are about to hit the phones. It feels like we’re due for a Galaxy. And the Libs like that one best.

    I’m plumping for 59/41 tonight to give myself some sweepstake clear air and because I like to see backbenchers pale and drawn. And maybe Tuckey will feel the urge to send some more faxes. Always fun.

  2. Yep Downer’s fishnet stocking incident was around the time of his “things that batter” policy releases.

    Again great judgement from the bloke we’re expecting to advance Australia’s interests overseas.

    Speaking as one who is naturally inclined to the conservative side of politics, (albeit as a small-l liberal), it is sad that some good quality candidates may not survive. It is even sadder that this less than convincing excuse for a foriegn minister is safe in Mayo.

  3. As an occasional contributor to this blog – my take on the responses to the “Scores” nightclub matter is that for quite a while now the diehard Coalition supporters have had to clench their jaws and bear the almost daily self- immolation of their preferred side. So this little issue has given them a chance to vent their pent-up chagrin. Let them whoop up their moment with a rush of voting on various websites and calls to the various jocks. The bigger picture has not changed one iota. If anything it will hammer another nail into the Coalition’s coffin as just another (ho hum) smear attempt. Just opens another little window to release more of the stench of their own corruptions.

  4. On the Kevin Rudd escapade, there are positives as well as negatives for the ALP.
    The obvious negative is to put off some women who absolutely do not approve of anyone, let alone our future prime minister, going to a strip club and drinking too much.
    If they knew about the Barbara caper they wouldn’t vote Liberal either. Saint Kevin for them now has feet of clay.
    On the flip side Kevin Rudd has totally dominated the media for a day.
    His image is indelibly engraved in people’s minds.
    Years ago when I was in Iran, I noticed that the Shah’s photo was absolutely everywhere. You couldn’t walk more than a few paces without seeing it. It was a bit like Big Brother.
    Likewise in Cuba, Castro’s image is everywhere, in Iraq Saddam Hussein’s image was everywhere. Wherever there is a strong dictatorship the image of the dictator floods the media.
    The idea is to ensure the hippocampuses of the people are never without fresh memories of the great leader.
    Thus all publicity is regarded as good publicity.
    Whilst Kevin Rudd gets the tut-tuts of the few he also gets a tick of approval from men who now think “he’s one of us”!
    In the balance he will probably gain more than he loses.
    Meanwhile, our Great Leader John is planning a Nationalist take over of Australia.
    He may wish to change the name of his party to the National Liberal Party.
    He may be planning a referendum to abolish the states. Why do we need them when we can control everything from Canberra?
    Think how much taxpayers’ money can be saved abolishing all those nasty left-wing state governments.
    Think of the power!

  5. Coota Bulldog says (46) in quoting Newspoll director Martin O’Shanessy:

    “The poll we’ve got coming up this week probably will include some punishment for the government over interest rates.”

    Is that a hint of this poll result?

  6. #42

    I am embarassed to have Downer as my local member, and I am ashamed to admit that I have actually voted for him on four separate occasions (although not since 2001!) He is one of the dirtiest and slimiest politicians going around, and yet he is the first to kick up a fuss when others stoop to the same low. If he spent half as much time representing the people of Mayo as he does on his “smear” campaigns, then he might actually be a decent member. I am hoping that Mary Mackillop will perform her third miracle on election day and Alexander will be sent packing.

  7. Re Howard’s attacks on Federalism: looks like “aspirational nationalism” is the last refuge of the autocratic scoundrel. Re Kevin’s strip club visit: at least it wasn’t the Bada Bing club. Re tomorrow’s Newspoll: ALP 56, Coalition 44.

  8. What’s funny here is that we are all hypocrites…

    When the Costello story came out we righties railed against it said it was all crap and be dead by this time next week and then when the Rudd story came out every lefty said that it was crap and be buried this time next week…

    Adam nobody takes Morgan polls seriously so why should you also if you didnt already notice 47% said it make them feel better or no worse about the laws…the laws are divisive plain and simple.

    The bad thing about this Rudd saga is the next poll is more than likely to be worse for the Coalition than better so once again people will be hoodwinked by the polls and say it had no impact whatsoever…trust me this story about Rudd is big because he wants to be PM and as you know a thing or two about gutter press Adam you’ll understand the tabloids will run with this story for most of the week…maybe finally on Insiders Barry will say its been a bad week for the ALP they havent had many so far…

  9. Thanks for that Adam. I’m not at all surprised. The ads were poorly thought out. You don’t gain by advertising your worst policy.
    What the government should be doing, and even this is looking very thin now, is advertising its economic management record.
    The trouble for them is the recent interest rise, the larger number of mortgage holders in suburban fringes losing their homes and the economic disturbances caused by the sub-prime mortgage disaster.
    People are beginning to get nervous.
    Add to this the knowledge that if the Coalition wins there will be a leadership change perhaps in twelve months, and you get even more feelings of instability.
    The recent Peter Costello revelations emphasise the instability at the top of the Howard government.
    In nervous times, people want stability and this is what Kevin Rudd is now saying. “I’m planning ten years ahead, not ten months”.
    Voters know he will be Prime Minister for the whole of the next time and likely thereafter if he comes up with the goods.
    Martin O’Shannessy of Newspoll is most likely saying the government has gone backwards and he is attributing it to the interest rate increase.
    If anyone knows what the poll will show, it’s him!
    That may account for dropping Kevin Rudd in the poo earlier than may have been expected.
    Alexander Downer has been making snide comments in the House for some time about it. He is so transparent, almost schoolboyish. He never really got beyond his teens at private school. He’s still the dorm japer.
    Julia Gillard next. What nasty smear can we expect about her?
    What a way to run a country!

  10. Glen says : …trust me this story about Rudd is big

    That’s the problem Glen, most Australians don’t trust that point of view, and wishing it was going to bad for Rudd and the ALP isn’t going to make it so. This is not america, and the morality police are not going to dictate the agenda. As I suspected, and as has been clearly demonstrated by the comments of most people, this is only going to help Rudd. It’s showing he has a lot more in common with Hawke than he does with Howard, and Hawke, with all of his faults, was a very very popular PM.
    Now Brendan Nelson says he’s been too (and we all know most male, and at least some female MPs have, regardless of which side), and is trying to turn the sleaze from the venue to being drunk. Very difficult when your own leader admits personally that he’s been drunk addressing the house.
    And, yet again, as if that would be something that would be uncommon! If you want to vote in a person that doesn’t drink, and never goes to strip clubs, vote in a devout muslim. Most Australians are a little bit more liberal (small l) in their thinking.
    It just shows how far from the true definition of ‘liberal’ that the conservatives in Australia have gone. And in the process, they’ve left the great part of the constituents behind.

  11. Glen, the story about Rudd might be big NOW but it will fade quickly. Tell me, why aren’t coalition members all over this? Do they have skeletons in the closet? One feels they will be happy to see this fade too. The danger is that people will start delving into other member’s backgrounds and leaking details. Howard is not a clean skin here either. He has been known to be drunk in parliament – read the book.

  12. “…for quite a while now the diehard Coalition supporters have had to clench their jaws and bear the almost daily self- immolation of their preferred side.”

    Pritam, I agree. Yesterday, the newspaper blogs were chock full of rage towards Kevin Rudd, but it was so over-the-top that these bloggers just couldn’t have been your average voter. I suspect that a lot of die-hard Liberal Party supporters and staff were madly hammering away at their keyboards yesterday trying to whip up hysteria over the strip club story. It smacked of desperation and, as you suggest, was only a minor, though brief moment of triumph for supporters who otherwise must be having a grim time watching poll after poll place the government in a losing position.

    Anyway, a few minutes of sunshine for the Libs until they get a whack in the polls from all those voters who detest grubby, dishonest tactics.

    My guess for tonight’s newspoll:

    57-43 (obviously Labor’s way)

  13. Lets take the comparison of a typical workplace.

    Who is more likely to get sacked?

    Someone who is drunk at the workplace (Howard)

    or

    Someone who has gone to a strip club drunk after work hours (Rudd)

  14. Turns out no-one in the Government leaked the story of Rudd’s tawdry, pathetic and spectacularly ill-judged visit to the strip club. So who could it have been? Perhaps someone in the ALP who hates him – which, come to think of it, is everyone in the ALP. My guess is Gillard, furious with him for shutting her out of his attempts to sweet talk the business community.

    Whichever of his colleagues is responsible, the whole episode shows just how unfit he is to be PM. The Libs don’t have to actively exploit it for it to destroy his chances of winning the election.

  15. Pi what you and the left have done is gloss over the facts that show just how disgraceful Rudd was….

    Unlike Brendan Nelson who went to a strip joint when he was 20 Kevin Rudd went to a strip joint when he was 46….Unlike Brendan Nelson who went to a strip joint in Australia, Kevin Rudd went to one whilst overseas at the UN representing Australia at the taxpayers expense…and to top it off unlike Brendan Nelson, Kevin Rudd blamed his escapade on ‘alcohol’….

    Sorry but until you left wingers get the facts straight you’ll never know the impact of this sleazegate…

  16. Alan Brown, have a chat with members of the Canberra Press Gallery who have remained oh so silent.
    Well, you have to admit, John Howard had very good taste.

  17. Glen/Steven: I’m bemused as to how going to a strip club once makes one unfit to be PM.

    Constant lying and deception and wasting taxpayers money trying to support flawed policy is what makes one unfit to be PM.

  18. I wonder what Steve and Glen think of Franklin Roosvelt and Winston Churchill as leaders. Great leaders but flawed to hell in their personal lives.

  19. Steven Kaye Says:
    July 30th, 2007 at 12:42 pm

    Also, did anyone see Tony Abbott on Insiders yesterday? It was a very relaxed performance and he confidently predicted a Coalition win, saying that the “dark corners” of Rudd’s character would soon be exposed. This might have been a reference to a certain story that’s being put together at a certain news organisation, a story that will destroy Kevin Rudd once it’s made public (probably some time during the election campaign).

    Evidence, if any was needed, that Kaye is a loyal stormtrooper of the dirt unit. Was this it, Steven? A strip club? Or is there more? Can’t wait for the next one.

  20. Rudd – twice drunk in his life and visited one strip joint. All of a sudden he is considered a drunkard and a womaniser. A bit over the top don’t you think? How do two indiscretions make you unfit to be PM?

  21. Gary Bruce said

    Glen, the story about Rudd might be big NOW but it will fade quickly. Tell me, why aren’t coalition members all over this? Do they have skeletons in the closet? One feels they will be happy to see this fade too. The danger is that people will start delving into other member’s backgrounds and leaking details. Howard is not a clean skin here either. He has been known to be drunk in parliament – read the book.

    I’m hearing rumours and hints from journo’s that a lot is known but unsaid. I imagine there is a gentleman’s agreement not to ‘go there’. If this turned into a full-scale mud-fight, who would be left standing? What would this do to Australia’s reputation and standing? We’d be a laughing stock.

    Frankly, I don’t want to know who got drunk and who sleeps with who. Let’s move on to policy.

  22. As ive said Asanque its not just the fact that he went to one its the circumstances…that make him unfit for office….

    1) He’s overseas representing Australia as an observer at the UN
    2) He’s 46 not something you can blame on youth…
    3) He got smashed…shows he has no self control and then allows himself to be put in a position that shames our country
    4) He then calls up his wife the next day and then tells no one else for fear of being canned by Crean, which he would have…shows how gutless he is…
    5) He only came clean to the public 4 years after disgracing Australia on the world stage.
    6) Once he’s found out he blames alcohol…no excuse mate!
    7) He then blames Downer and says it is a part of a dirty tricks campaign…excuses excuses excuses….

  23. Glen
    Blah blah blah–it isn’t going to matter a bit. The polls are not going to turn around because of this.

    Sorry, old chum.

  24. People who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
    It would be better for the Coalition not to continue throwing stones and mud.
    How about giving the people of Australia just a little inkling of how you intend managing Australia through what may be a recession?
    It’s easy managing in good times when you can throw money around.
    How about a hint of economic policies?
    What are your policies on the big issues of the day?
    Or is the big issue of the day just trying to smear and bring down your opponents?

  25. Glen… if you think that standing on the pulpit and trying to push your morality on to the great bulk of the Australian people, you’re really not getting the problem here. You’re also kidding yourself that this is going to be a positive for you. What I’m saying is, and what you’re failing to appreciate, is that this particular incident doesn’t matter. For every one person that says it matters (almost entirely rusted on conservatives) you have two people that say what a person does in their private time is their own bloody business.
    They’re going to be more concerned that some moral crusader is going to dictate how they live their lives, or a sleaze unit is going to try and win votes with pure negative mud-slinging, than be worried about some guy that goes to a piss-up and ends up at a strip-club. And I hate to break it to ya there buddy… but in diplomatic circles, that’s called ‘networking’. More than likely, Downer was just jealous that he never got asked.
    Don’t get me wrong, I think there are lots of very complex issues around this male-centric view of the world, but the fact is, most political leaders are male, and most people within the political process are male. It’s not like he asked for a blow-job from an intern… and that was, yet again, a very very popular president, in a very very puritanical christian country.
    People would be much more worried about Starr, then they would be worried about Clinton.
    The more you bash on about it… the more positive it is going to be for the ALP.

  26. Pi so i guess you like the idea of having a Prime Minister who goes to a strip joint when…

    1) He’s overseas representing Australia as an observer at the UN
    2) He’s 46 not something you can blame on youth…
    3) He got smashed…shows he has no self control and then allows himself to be put in a position that shames our country
    4) He then calls up his wife the next day and then tells no one else..shows how gutless he is…
    5) Once he’s found out he blames alcohol…no excuse mate!
    6) He then blames Downer and says it is a part of a dirty tricks campaign…excuses excuses excuses….

    I know i dont!

  27. “Constant lying and deception and wasting taxpayers money…is what makes one unfit to be PM.” – Asanque.

    So you agree with me about Rudd. Good for you!

    And for all you Lefties who simply don’t want to understand, Glen has very correctly outlined why this is such a disgraceful episode.

  28. Glen, I, and the great bulk of people, see nothing wrong with a guy having a few drinks and ending up at a strip club. I know very few males that would not have done the same… and the ones that didn’t, I would have respected their beliefs too.
    I’d be far more concerned about appointing a religious leader to our highest political position. You should have a long hard think about how the Australian public reacted to that particular incident before you start moralizing on who is fit to govern.
    The Australian public gets it, even if you don’t.

  29. And for all you Lefties who simply don’t want to understand, Glen has very correctly outlined why this is such a disgraceful episode.

    And for all you righties foaming at the mouth with impotent rage, this isn’t going to make any difference.

  30. Glen, you self righteous individual, let’s answer a few of those points.
    1) They were on the own free time when this happened and paid for their own drinks etc. Warren Snowden has said that.
    2)Age is irrelevant. It’s either OK to go to one of these establishments or it is not. Which is it FOR YOU Glen? Personally I haven’t been to one but don’t care if others go.
    3) Has been drunk twice in his life. That makes him a drunk does it Glen? Shows he has no control? TWICE IN A LIFE TIME GLEN. That shows great control.
    4) Stupid point without proof or foundation.
    5) Does not have to admit every indiscetion. Otherwise let’s hear Howard admit being drunk in parliament. This only recently came out in a book.
    6) Found out and admitted everything. If he can’t remember, he can’t remember.
    7) No excuse just fact.
    None of this makes him unfit for PM Glen. Was Churchill unfit to be PM? Was Roosvelt unfit to be President of the free world? They were personally flawed.

  31. Glen/Steven: He got drunk and went to a strip club after hours, big deal.

    Nothing in that shames our country especially as this story hasn’t even gotten out for a number of years.

    What shames our country is our position on detaining refugees, pre-emptive strikes on foreign countries and entering into illegal wars.

  32. What is this “Howard drunk in Parliament” story that people keep mentioning? I’ve never heard this, and it seems out of character (but no more out of character than Rudd in a stripclub, I suppose). Whereas Costello bragging about how he’s gonna do in Howard, and then chickening out, and then lying about it, is entirely IN character.

  33. A funny joke about this subject I once read, and just scrounged up again…

    Who would you vote for?

    Candidate A.
    Associates with crooked politicians, and consults with astrologist. He’s had two mistresses. He also chain smokes and drinks 8 to 10 martinis a day.

    Candidate B.
    He was kicked out of office twice, sleeps until noon, used opium in college, and drinks a quart of whiskey every evening.

    Candidate C.
    He is a decorated war hero. He’s a vegetarian, doesn’t smoke, drinks an occasional beer, and never cheated on his wife.

    Which of these candidates would be your choice?

    Decide first… no peeking, then scroll down for the response.

    Candidate A. is Franklin D. Roosevelt.
    Candidate B. is Winston Churchill.
    Candidate C. is Adolph Hitler.

  34. 1) He’s overseas representing Australia as an observer at the UN

    Actually, that’s the heart of the matter.

    If he had led a delegation to a strip club as part of his official duties then I would be outraged.

    Going to a strip club as a private individual in the company of others is a tawdry tale of dubious public interest.

    The rest of Glen’s list is laughable. Is he really suggesting that anyone who has ever been ‘smashed’ is unfit for high office? It would be a very small (and unrepresentative) parliament that met.

Comments Page 2 of 9
1 2 3 9

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *