As reported in various News Limited papers, a Galaxy poll conducted over the weekend shows Labor suffering a 2 per cent drop in the primary vote since the previous poll four weeks ago, and a slight narrowing of their two-party lead. Curiously, Galaxy’s figure of 10 per cent for the Greens is at least double what Newspoll has given them in the past four months. Also included are figures on Liberal leadership preference which indicate voters are least unlikely to vote Coalition if John Howard remains Prime Minister. The following table shows two-party and primary vote results from Galaxy’s national federal polls this year:
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
| July 30 | 54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
| July 2 | 55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
| June 4 | 53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
| May 14 | 57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
| April 23 | 58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
Sometime during 2006 the conservative leaning Herald Sun had one of those questionnaires about politics and many other issues. Thousands of people filled them in and the results were published. Based on those results you could have sworn Bracks was going to lose the up coming election. He only achieved the second best result in Victorian political history. So much for such surveys.
anyway some observations
Strop
well written and actually says alot re politics at the moment
In this microsm the emphasis seems to be
1.reasoned debate re J-HO destroying trust etc in the Gvt (well done leftoids)
2.Unreasoned personal attacks akin to a Melbourne Monsignor on crack (not so well done rightoids)
The reason J-HO is gone is simple TRUST
quite a simple concept “hard to gain,easy to lose-never forgotten”
Game Over Rightoids time for reconstruction and recrimination
On Haneef-
Tampa: no impact on the election despite some very public outrage. Why? Howard played the race and territorial sovereignty cards (winners with the general electorate). The old ‘yellow peril’/ ‘reds under the bed’ mythology worked wonders.
911 and Bali : Big winners for the Coalition on Australian ‘security’ issues and the terror of Terrorists. No, no: Im not suggesting JWH had anything to do with those awful events: only that the electorate are very reluctant to change leadership in a time of war or terrorist threats.
Haneef: Howard (almost blatantly) turned it into a political football and tried to create a ‘national security’ wedge between the Coalition and Rudd by almost begging him (see Andrew’s media releases) to openly oppose the Government on the issue.
Now the event is (almost) over, Rudd comes out and supports an ‘inquiry’ into the way the whole thing was handled.
There has to be a scape-goat found and banished to political and/or career oblivion. Howard will find one and invite the nation to a public hanging if he thinks it will win him some brownie points with the electorate and maintains the terrorism-muslim-threat to national security-patriotism connection in the heads of the ‘swingers’.
In my opinion it is a gamble, but it has steered votes away from Labor in recent elections- The question is how cynical about JWH have the swingers become ? I think it should (ethically speaking) be a vote loser for JWH but Tampa tells me that counts for nothing at the election box.
Mr Squiggle, it is with some sadness that I have to agree. Regardless of the stuff-ups, the Haneef affair will probably not shift many votes. In an ideal world, it should shift a lot because the government’s role in it has been bloody despicable, but unfortunately, I think a lot of people don’t pay too much attention to the details and many of these will simply feel reassured that the government seems to be tough on terrorism, even if a tad too tough.
Issues of justice, deceit, and common decency will be lost in the ether, except of course for those who pay close attention to politics and/or care about the “means” and not just the “ends”.
But because the government stuffed it up by overplaying the wedge (and detaining an innocent man!) and because the general public is more cynical about Howard’s actions these days, this affair is by no means another Tampa. It will strengthen some elements of the redneck vote and a few floaters will gravitate towards the government and that will be about it. In other words, a slight improvement, if any at all, for the coalition, and probably no improvement.
As for the latest polls, there doesn’t seem to be any real change since June, but there has certainly been a small shift back to the government since the extremes we saw in March (i.e., 61-39). It doesn’t look great for Howard. He is living on borrowed time now.
But frankly, I find it hard to believe that even 46% of people would actually contemplate on voting for such an inept and deceitful government. The mind boggles.
Some say that voting for JWH is a vote for the devil,
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Rudd-given-better-chance-in-heaven-poll/2007/07/30/1185647820238.html
Well,if we go by this poll he may well join him!
Listen to commercial talkback radio in Sydney: Muslim bashing is alive and well. This ain’t a vote loser for Howard. The racist bigots who supported him over the Tampa will lap this up too. And, the progressives upset with Howard and Andrews were always Labor voters.
Haneef isn’t a vote changing issue: no wonder Rudd would rather talk about housing affordability.
Nostradamus, what would you say are the chances of the Coalition increasing its 16 seat majority this year?
ALP needs only 15 seats to form government because one of the independents would become speaker. If the ALP had 75 seats and say both independents decided to support the government and given the coalition would have to supply a speaker or one of the independents became speaker then the ALP would always have numbers to defeat the Coalition. So for those that say the ALP needs 16 it doesn’t 15 will do the trick whereas if the Coalition had 73 plus 2 independents there are reliant on their support to defeat ALP legislation.
Snoopy Says:
July 30th, 2007 at 4:39 pm
Hugo, I assure you I am not a Terrorists, I do will not die in the name of Allah, nor will would I murder innocent people. The question really is, “why do the left always stand up for these killers?, why do they call Howard a Terrorist and call the Terrorists heroes? So Says Snoopy.
Snoopy, I didn’t realise that the only terrorists were those that followed Allah – idiot! Terrorists come from all religions!
Trevor you are correct re the ALP requiring 15 seats. Bryan at OzPolitics showed this to be the case a couple of months ago, for the same reasons you’ve put forward.
I think if this Haneef business goes on much longer, the outrage of the media, and the elites will filter down. It has to.
Why did the government allow Haneef to leave the country, even though he was allegedly “still under investigation”?
Why did they try to make his passage back to India conditional upon him not speaking to the media?
Am I the only person here who smells panic?
A hung parliament would be a disaster for the country because Krudd wouldnt control the Senate either, the last thing we want is a parliament that cant do anything of real substance.
All of the left wingers have failed to realize a few small factors that stand in the way of the ALP getting elected in November:
1. Rudd has been opposition leader for less than 1 year, no Australian politician has been elected PM with so few years in any leadership role and with so little leadership experience. Krudd has never had to make a tough decision in his life except whether or not to have dinner or lunch with Brian Burke…
2. The Australian economy is soundly chugging along and governments do not lose when they have not fluffed the economy up to high hell and Howard and Costello have a good story to tell. Regardless what the media tells you there is no stress in the housing market on rents and prices i mean if that were the case why has consumer spending gone up that doesnt look like stress to me…
3. Labor has 23 marginals just as the Coalition has and if the ALP loses 2 or 3 of them as they are almost certain to do then the election is OVER. The ALP are heading towards a pumping in WA with Cowan and Swan likely to fall and marginal electorates in Holt and Issacs likely to come close in Victoria. Also Krudd has said he needs 10 extra seats in QLD even with a swing of 5 or 6% he would get less than 5 seats as most Liberal/Nat seats in QLD are held between 7-9%. Also the new seat of Flynn in QLD is going to the Nats as is Calare which adds one extra seat to Coalition before we even start going.
Face it Krudd will do better than Big Kim but it wont change the result Howard’s number 5 by probably 5 seats in the HofR.
Yep, they ain’t finished yet. In fact it will get worse. I’m pretty sure no matter how hard I try to make myself feel good about it.
This isn’t great news.
It means to me the election will be very close. (which usually means Labor will lose) I don’t want that. I want a devastating rejection of this Gov . I wont get it.
I might, just possibly get a win.
But lets face it, this is Australia ,
Black fella’a drinking, pissin away the dole and bashin the kids, White guys doing the same but with Winnie Reds in their shoulder sleeve, drinkin “rum an cokes” when they should be out lookin for work (Ye’s, I’d hire them in my small snack bar, how about you)?towel heads with their “cousins” blowin up airports.
“Lawyers in everything”.
Na, Australian swingers will never fall for that !.. LMFAO
All is lost. .
“sigh”
face it. a trend is a trend, spin it anyway you like..
Go die in whatever way suits you
I see the headlines now.
“Rudd, almost made it but…” Johnny bets the odds!!!!!!!,
*bites her tongue at the blatant stupidity*
Glen
1. Didn’t Bob Hawke go almost straight from the ACTU to preselection, by-election, then government in a radically short time?
2. The government droning on about the economy hasn’t helped them so far. And anyway, isn’t an interest rate rise imminent?
3. You say that if the ALP loses 2 marginals “the election is OVER”. What if they gain even more?
[Nostradamus Says:
July 30th, 2007 at 8:32 pm
Maybe you should get better reading glasses]
The fact you are reverting to personal attacks demonstrates that you are just here trolling.
Glen where and where did Rudd say he needs 10 seats in QLD ?
” Also Krudd has said he needs 10 extra seats in QLD…{.
I say that is more delusional B.S unless you can provide evidence to support this claim which you typically fail to do. Go ahead, show me the evidence that Rudd said that.
STROP,
How often have you responded to a post from someone you have said you are going to ignore in order to tell us again that you will ignore them?
An habitual name caller. Right wing as they come.
jasmine_Anadyr .
What? u think this isn’t how many “Aussies” think?.. my god. you should have been in my house 2hrs ago.
Believe me, not only is that what they think
but….
Thats what they said
In case you didn’t “get it”. I’m NOT for that type of thinking. DUH! Jesus, HFDCUB
Tonight, in my house. Surrounded by Eden-Monaro voters. I was expressing my own views, It turns out (diametrically opposed to theirs) and this is what they said!!!
Thats what pissed em off and made them say what they truly thought
Who opened the cage tonight?
My first & likely only contribution to this fine site is to suggest that it is best to just ignore Glen. His tedious, scripted baiting (& the inevitable responses) contributed no small part in the demise of comments at OzPolitics & the formula hasn’t much changed here. It’s not entirely surprising that he tends to show up around the blogs when talkback either isn’t on or isn’t focused on Federal politics.
That Guy i suppose you failed to read what i wrote as most left wingers do, i said any leadership position. While Hawke may have been opposition leader for less time than Krudd he was ACTU head for decades which im sure made him make tough decisions something Krudd has never had to do in his entire life.
Do you seriously think Labor can win between 20 and 25 seats because that’s what you are suggesting and its a load of bull butter the Federal ALP are a joke and once the election is called and people have to make a good hard choice about who has the experience to run the country it aint Rudd.
STROP i said Rudd and the media have said he needs 10 seats in QLD extra to have a chance and he cant do it unless its an across the board landslide which is highly unlikely.
If you guys were students of history which you plainly arent you are forgetting the 1969 election. The economic times were good but people thought they liked the young inexperience opposition leader and Whitlam led all the way in the polls to election-day and lost by a whisker. The parallels are salient with 1969 when Gorton held off the ALP by a few seats to then have such a slim majority McMahon lost in 1972, and i hate to break it to you STROP but Howard aint no Big Ears McMahon.
Also unlike in 1972 where the ALP needed less than 5 seats to win the election whereas Krudd in 2007 needs more than 15 seats to win outright now cmon get serious…Everything and I mean everything would have to go right for him to win on election night and that’s not going to happen.
Australians dont like change and are by and large conservative whether they admit it or not and unless the economy goes into deficit and unemployment gets into the double digits like under Keating i cannot seeing people risk the economy on Rudd and Swan.
Hi Noocat and Jasmine,
Thoughts aplenty just now- Jasmine- you should say something instead of biting down on your tongue, you will get too many scars!!
Noocat – I saw the tony abbott interview on Insiders, referred to earlier in this blog-chain. He articualted something for me that has been brewing as a half thought for a while but it has never quite formed.
Kevin Rein and ALP have obviously been running dead on issues where the Libs have a natural consitituancy. Sooner or later it will catch up with them. ON Tasmania, the Greens have caught him out. Then on Haneef, the Doctor’s wives come to understand what Mr Rein stands for. “why did Kevin agree with John Boy?”
And now, on Insiders, Tony says it straight to my face – “Someday, Mr Squiggle, Kevin Rein is going to have to make a decision”
I wonder if the Galxay poll is really an outsider? I think soem of the legitimate arguments against Mr Rein are starting to bite
Glen,
Yes, Flynn is notionally National but don’t forget you have lost Gwydir in NSW.
Err, Mebbe I need to apologise, I’m not sure but here goes.
jasmine_Anadyr .
If you weren’t having a go at me then, I am so very sorry. I just came of the back of that conversation with the aforementioned “ppl” and as soon as I refreshed I saw your reply.
After 2hrs of attack I was in “combat mode”.
But…
after re-reading your post, I slowed down abit and thought… err. mebbe she wasn’t going after you at all. mebbe she was kinda aggreing with my outrage at my recent house-guest language..
if it’s the latter then I am a truly very srry for my response..
If not then I’m not
Yes but we are getting Calare in NSW +1 Nats thankyou very much Martin J
Dear Glen,
Calare was previously a non Labor seat so it makes no difference to the number of seats Labor requires . Again please see Adam’s post at 6:02.
How many times does this have to be explained to some people. Labor holds 60 seats irrespective of who holds Calare. 60 + 16 = 76 = majority.
Got it, Glen?
The first cracks are showing in Labor’s ability to run Australia’s economy, when they cant even get their figures straight on two bits of policy…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22154632-12332,00.html
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22157363-601,00.html
Costello has found out Labor’s first stumble of the campaign as they got their sums wrong because 150,000 new houses would be built over the next five years, which is three times the number set out in Rudd’s $500m housing policy. That worked out to $645 a house, instead of Labor’s wild claims that its policy would magically cut costs by about $20,000 per home.
The ALP is also under pressure to explain how it would fill a $500million funding hole that would be created by its plan to compensate universities for the scrapping of full-fee-paying courses, some how or another Wayne Swan has to find half a billion to cover up Smith’s mistake what a joke!
How typical of just about every ALP policy announcement…
Fraudband – stealing money from the future fund
Garrett mixing up doubling with extending the rebate on solar panels for houses
The Federal ALP are an absolute joke of a party…enough said.
“better safe than sorryâ€.
When you say, “Better safe than sorry,” you mean that it is better to use some extra time, energy, and effort to be careful than to take risks without doing harm or cause unnecessary PANIC.
Interestingly this phrase was used in this context:
Better safe than sorry | NEWS.com.au
IF you get into strife overseas, who should you turn to for assistance? Greg Roberts offers some official answers, as well as safety tips.
http://www.news.com.au/travel/story/0,23483,20323797-36335,00.html
Glen, I think you actually make some salient points (and if Rudd is to go on and become PM by year’s end, it would be quite an historic result), but you need to tone down the vitreolic manner in which you make them if you want “left wingers” (and other straw men) to bother reading them. Your posts (and this could be directed at several other posters as well) come over as a bit of a rant and I find myself getting bored with them pretty quickly. You guys do have something to add to sites like this, so tone it down a bit, and we’ll all get on better. It’s not like any of us are likely to change anyone else’s minds with what we post – we’re all partisans here, so don’t take things so seriously.
Adam, I know that you like to keep your site uncluttered, but would there be any chance of a page which listed when and how the pages were substantially updated?
And, will be there be a list of the electorates that have polling booth maps?
Cheers
The polls Glen, looks at the polls (even 55-45 2PP) Glen says it is not stretching reality at all to find 16 seats for Labor at the 2007 Election
TASMANIA
Bass(1.1), Braddon (2.6)
SA
Wakefield (0.7), Kingston (0.1), Makin (0.9) -watch Boothby and Sturt;
NSW
Eden Monara (3.3), Dobell (4.8), Lindsay (2.9), Macquarie (0.5 ALP) -watch Bennelong, Page, Wentworth, Paterson, Robertson.
QLD
Blair (5.7), Bonner (0.6), Herbert (5.4), Longman (6.6), Moreton (2.8) – watch Bowman, Flynn, Petrie.
VICTORIA
Corangamite (5.3) – watch Deakin, Dunkley, Latrobe, McEwen, McMillan;
WA
Hasluck (1.8) Stirling (2.0)
NT
– watch Solomon (2.8)
This is a conservative speculation on seats Labor should win in 2007- enough (16) without the ‘watch’ seats I have nominated and WITHOUT a 2PP swing of more than 5.0 in most of them.
Labor does not have to win 10 seats in QLD to win Government: that is a rediculous claim. Any losses in WA (Swan et al) or Victoria (Isaacs, Holt et al) could be offset by gains in the ‘watch’ seats I have listed.
Im not saying Labor WILL win the election: What I am saying is Labor does not HAVE to win 10 seats in QLD to win Government.
STROP i said Rudd and the media have said he needs 10 seats in QLD extra to have a chance and he cant do it unless its an across the board landslide which is highly unlikely.
The “media” are not Rudd Glen. Show me where Rudd said it.
Snoopy (4.39) – you’ve missed my point. Can you PROVE that you’re a terrorist? That is in essence the standard that you are applying to our mutual friend Dr Haneef. Now in reality of course, I don’t know the man any better than you do. He may well be Osasma bin Laden’s right hand man. But then, for all I know, you might be, and quite frankly, your over the top denials of my accusation is pretty suspicious. You can expect a call from the AFP shortly.
You are correct Hugo, but as you can imagine being a centre-right supporter on internet blogs can be like the 300 spartans fighting against hundreds of thousands of persians but i take your point.
The funny thing is both sides are preaching to the converted but hey one way or another one side will win in November and we’ll have to live with that. I’d like predictions on the leaderships of both parties if the Coalition survives or if Labor wins??
Id say Costello would resign i cannot seeing him want to be Opposition leader so it would have to come down to Malcolm Turnbull.
Will Mark Vaile stay on as leader of the Nats, they were going to suffer without Ando…
I wonder if Gillard would stab Rudd in the back after all if Rudd lost it wouldnt be by much even so i doubt she’d do it but Rudd would be in a tight situation.
Snoopy (4.39) – you’ve missed my point. Can you PROVE that you’re not a terrorist? That is in essence the standard that you are applying to our mutual friend Dr Haneef. Now in reality of course, I don’t know the man any better than you do. He may well be Osasma bin Laden’s right hand man. But then, for all I know, you might be, and quite frankly, your over the top denials of my accusation is pretty suspicious. You can expect a call from the AFP shortly.
Chris Curtis Says:
July 30th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
STROP,
How often have you responded to a post from someone you have said you are going to ignore in order to tell us again that you will ignore them?
Fair enough Chris. I WILL stop it – BUT its ohh so tempting to get stuck into idiot comments and FALSE claims. Laughin.
STROP chill out what you are ignorant about is the fact that swings are NEVER uniform, get your facts straight as you fail to notice how many seats Labor hold that are marginal as well…
Swan 0.1%
Cowan 0.8%
Richmond 1.5%
Holt 1.5%
Issacs 1.5%
Ballarat 2.2%
Chisholm 2.7%
Need i say more STROP Rudd could lose any of these seats and he’ll be in trouble…thanks to the unlovable John Brumby being the new Premier in Victoria there should be a swing to the Libs which could gain some seats as we should in WA as well Hasluck and Stirling should not even be in your columns i mean seriously the ALP are not going to get a swing to them in WA.
Labor isn’t unloved in Victoria nor is Brumby. He has been credited as being a very good treasurer. Please supply the data for your comments. Are you in Victoria? By your comments I’d guess not.
Labor does not have to win 10 seats in QLD to win Government: that is a rediculous claim. Any losses in WA (Swan et al) or Victoria (Isaacs, Holt et al) could be offset by gains in the ‘watch’ seats I have listed.
Where is that ^^ ignoring Labor Marginals Glen – And again, where did Rudd say he needs 10 seats in QLD ? No more from me_ I think Ive made my point.
Labor did suffer albeit a small swing against it in the 2006 State election, and with the ‘popular’ Bracks standing down and the loser and hardman taking up leadership positions within the State ALP Government i think the Liberals have a chance in some of those marginals…let’s face it the more time Labor has to spend defending their marginals the better for Howard and yes i am Victorian Gary. I am in Melbourne Ports the electorate that would be Liberal if 10% of people didnt vote for the Greens oh well stuck with Danby again…
Rudd will lose the election if he goes small target which is his plan i mean he’s not taking a tax policy to the election the ALP are a joke seriously…
So the Galaxy poll is a good sign for the coalition? The primary vote of the coalition stayed on a low 41%, Labor dropped 2% which went straight to the greens which flow back to Labor. The summation in the Herald Sun states that after preferences Labor would achieve a 7% swing. A fantastic poll for the Coalition for sure.
Gary,Strop
Do you believe labor is coming off a fairly low base (2004) and consequently can logically only improve-regardless of polls?
That’s strange – Howard went small target in ’96. Why is it bad for Rudd yet it worked well for Howard back then?
Glen – thanks for taking my gratuitous advice in the spirit it was intended.
Post-election leadership speculation:
Labor – if Rudd wins, he’ll be PM for at least five years, quite probably longer. If he loses, it will depend on the margin – if it’s a close loss, he’s probably secure, if he loses badly, he’ll have a year or so to show some progress. What would save Rudd in the short term is a lack a clear alternative. There are a few who might be leadership material, but no one of them stands out. My guess at the moment that Rudd is pretty safe in the leadership until Shorten has been around for a few years. Of course, if Rudd has a post-election meltdown a la Latham, things would probably change more quickly, but that’s not likely.
Liberal – If Howard wins, he goes down in history in the Tory Pantheon alongside Menzies. You would have to think he’d retire at some time in the coming term, though the old bugger could start to think he’s invincible and hang on. I guess we could expect a handover to Costello in early 2009, though a contest post-Howard is not out of the question.
If Howard loses, his legacy will be very different, and we can expect a fair bit of infighting among the Libs, as usually happens to parties that lose office after a long stretch. This will be exagerated in this instance because the Liberal Party has been dominated by one man for so long. If the Libs lose office, they will be a pretty parlous state, as they would be in office precisely nowhere. It’s conceivable that the Right might be about to undergo one of its periodic realignings (eg 1909, 1917, 1931, 1944), and the Liberal Party may need to re-emerge in a different giuse to regain office.
In this scenario, being leader might be a bit of poison chalice. Frankly I’d be surprised if Costello hung around too long in the event of a loss, but if not him, then who? Nelson? Abbott? People keep mentioning Turnbull, but that’s just because of name recognition. I’m not convinced he’s got enough of the common touch to be a successful party leader. It’s hard to say who would end up leading the Libs to the 2010 election.
The Nats will continue to decline along with the rural sector generally (at least as far as population, and therefore representation, goes), and as usual it won’t much matter who their leader is.
Bob Brown will be re-elected and he will remain leader of the Greens until the end of his term (in 2014), by which you’d think he’d retire (he’s currently 63). How the Greens survive without him is for another debate.
Glen, gone off Nelson, have you?
Labor wont get a 7% swing uniform geepers i mean Howard in his landslide only got a 6% and that was because people were waiting with cricket bats for Keating they wont be waiting for Howard he just isnt hated like Keating was and Gary you cant seriously think Labor will remain this far ahead when the election is called???
If the polls are between 47-9/51-3 then the Coalition will win, if they are more than 55-45 then the Coalition will probably lose…
Nelson is still a chance Amber but because we have so much leadership talent in our party unlike yours we can pick and chose between many candidates if we lose…Costello, Turnbull, Downer, Nelson, Bishop….
Who does Labor have???
Gillard……………………………………that’s it and it aint a great 2nd choice lol!
Absolutely, but there is improvement and IMPROVEMENT and what we are seeing is massive improvement. The danger signs for the coalition took place some time back when Rudd took over as leader. The massive shift in the polls back then and their subsequent consistency in the face of some, what would normally be, vote changing issues, must really be worrying the coalition. To me this shows a desire to get rid of this government.
The problem with that theory Glen is that you think the Coalition will win the election campaign. I don’t. I don’t see what the government will win it on.