As reported in various News Limited papers, a Galaxy poll conducted over the weekend shows Labor suffering a 2 per cent drop in the primary vote since the previous poll four weeks ago, and a slight narrowing of their two-party lead. Curiously, Galaxy’s figure of 10 per cent for the Greens is at least double what Newspoll has given them in the past four months. Also included are figures on Liberal leadership preference which indicate voters are least unlikely to vote Coalition if John Howard remains Prime Minister. The following table shows two-party and primary vote results from Galaxy’s national federal polls this year:
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
| July 30 | 54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
| July 2 | 55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
| June 4 | 53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
| May 14 | 57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
| April 23 | 58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
PS* As for the Morons defendant Dr Death 2 please go away. This guy is related to the Terrorists in the UK (Who are also Doctors) , gave his sim card to one of them and bought a one way ticked out of Australia when it happened and possibly other stuff that has not been released. If the AFP did not detain him and something happened the same idiots would be saying that the Government was asleep at the wheel and spent too much time worrying about Iraq and not the Terrorists. After all the recent Terrorists attacks Muslims must be prepared to be Investigated, detained and deported if they want they want to work or visit our Great Nation. So Says Snoopy.
The Courier Mail write in poll coming on top of the stunning Galaxy figures drives yet another yet a nail into the ALP coffin.
However like the undead, the ALP will not be truly disposed of until the voters drive a stake through its heart on polling day.
It is a real outlier. Is this another dodgy Galaxy poll?
You just wait Lefties, once the election is called Howard will get at least a 3-4% swing towards him and based on Galaxy’s figures that would put it an almost 50-50 contest and in that situation the Government would be returned.
Dont you understand how devastating the Libs campaign is going to be it is going to crush Krudd on his lack of experience, chuck in an interest rate rise and the Libs can point and say do you really want KR and Swan to run things can they do it better than Howard and Costello NO….
Morgan and AC should be ignored no matter who they said was winning Coalition or ALP it would be bogus they are not credible pollsters the only ones worth taking a look at is Galaxy and Newspoll. And Snoopy is right, how many people would admit face to face they vote for a conservative party not many but many do it and will continue to do it. You lefties are waiting on 7% swings in Queensland and that wouldn’t even be enough to win half a dozen seats let alone the 10 Krudd needs to win because the Coalition is miles ahead in many of its Lib/Nat seats.
Also no swing is uniform and might I add if Krudd loses just a few seats and they are gone except if there is a landslide , which is doubtful. Rudd will almost certainly be without Swan and Cowan in WA which breaks even the Libs losing Braddon and Bass in TAS, so their pick ups will be for naught!
Despite what many leftwingers think the next 3 years of Australian politics will go as follows, Howard wins with a small 3-4 seat majority, Costello takes over in 2008 and Rudd wins by a landslide in 2010. Its that simple…
*rolls eyes* – the stupidity of people who don’t understand the worthlessness of self-selected media “polls.” Have a look at “Your say” in The Age – wholly predictable “left” answers to every question, because that’s who reads The Age. A poll in a right-wing tabloid will get the exact opposite result. Net significance: nil. Do I really need to explain this?
On the Sunday Mail survey:
(a) Self-selection bias. Goes without saying.
(b) Sounds like the poll was “Preferred prime minister”, not voting intention.
(c) The Sunday Mail is useful for lining budgies’ cages, but not much else.
Snoopy (July 30th at 3:39 pm),
Sorry to rain on your self-delusional masturbate-a-thon, but the ‘survey’ that you point out is biased, just as similar surveys in the Fairfax press are biased towards Labor. These ‘surveys’ are often subject to tampering by political party youth-wings.
A much better indicator is the betting market. I point you towards Sportingbet:
http://www.sportingbetdecider.com/
The weight of money taken for the federal election favours the ALP by 67% to 33%. The current odds are $2.30 for the Coalition and $1.60 for the ALP.
Hard-earned shekels speak louder than silly ‘surveys’ and push-polls.
You are right about Conservative voters being wankers though.
Richard Jones – Labor does not particularly need a Green preference deal (as most Green voters will preference Labor anyway), and this idea that the bulk of the nation really cares about Tassie forests (or indeed about anything in Tassie – there is a good reason that many maps leave the island off!) is ridiculous. The forestry issue is a side one, politically speaking (though no less important for that), the bulk of swinging voters will vote of one or more of the main issues: the economy, the cost of living, WorkChoices, national security, and possibly global warming. Anyone who thinks otherwise probably suffers from a spot of tunnel vision about their particular hobby horse.
I must admit to getting a little frustrated with the Greens’ apparent attempt recently to run the Ralph Nader line (basically that Libs and Labor are all the same, so don’t vote for either). Talk about masochism, anyone would think that the Greens would be more comfortable under a re-elected Howard government.
Snoopy – I think you’re a terrorist. Prove you are not.
Hans, Ich denke Ich der General Wenck sehen kann!!!
Endlich!
Ja ja! Ich auch Herr Oberleutnant!!!
Er kommt sofort, mit dieser Courier-mail einschreibenpoll Panzergruppen!
To: Down and Out of Sà i Gòn, the question was, “Who will you vote for at the Federal Election?” and “Who do you prefer as PM?”. To Fagin or Fagot? The Sunday Mail is Queensland’s only Newspaper and cannot be manipulated by Youth Wings of Political Parties and if it did it would be manipulated by Left Wing Idiots who are the ones that always try and cheat the system. To Glen, you are right mate, the Looney Soy Latte Left can’t handle the thought of Howard being re-elected but he will cruise to victory and your analysis is pretty good and don’t forget the country seat being vacated by an independent that will 100% go to the Nats so Labor need to win 17 and this is unachievable in this climate. There are no baseball bats, no anger in the community (only the Soy Latte Community) Howard’s approval rating is strong, his preferred PM ratings are strong, the Economy is Strong, Punters are just flirting with Dudd at the moment and have been sucked into his “Sound Bites” on the nightly news. But as Glen says, wait for Howard to unleash the Beast, Coalition Campaign Ads are always Crackers, Dudd has been in Parliament for less time than Learner Latham and has never been in Government also wait for the Business Community to spend Millions to support the IR Laws. Glen, I do not agree with you on everything, I think the Government will only lose a few seats, maybe 6 and I think it is way to earlier to call 2010. So Says Snoopy.
My instincts agree with Adam on this one – any mention of Muslim terrorism would be a plus for the government.
Interestingly, though every single person I’ve spoken to about this case has criticised the govt handling of it. This includes plenty of people from regional areas and die hard conservative supporters in my family – they all loved Tampa, supported Iraq (initially) etc. Words like fiasco, debacle and joke bobbed up pretty regularly. It doesn’t seem to be playing out as I expected it might.
Had a family gathering yesterday, the die-hard Liberals there were (mostly) pretty unhappy with the government – some are even considering voting for Rudd. My uncle who has never voted Labor in his life described the government as flailing around looking for something to attack Kevin Rudd with rather than governing. He said he was considering changing. I suspect that he will stick with the tried and true in the end but it was a real insight into the disillusion with the govt from a traditional supporter.
The Greens represent realism, that being policies that actually fix problems…Labor currently represents very little… and yes i do not want Howard reelected but the way the Labor Party is going about its policies in the run up to the election it is beginning to fall on its sword and the polls slips is evidence. In speaking to people whom i do alot of in my employment, many are telling me that their is very little difference between the parties.. now i know myself that their is but the way Labor is conducting its current approach many people will start seeing that whilst everything is going okay economically then why change?
In regards to the realism stuff i talk about Housing and Climate Change policy Labor approach on Housing is summits and inquiries and more inquiries whilst the rich through negative gearing and capital tax deductions on investments get richer… and on climate change clean coal… get real… what is the bet they will eventually agree to nuclear power as an option… and where has the party been regarding Dr Haneef? not a whisper… talk about gutless…
William, I think you need a new filter, one that prevents posts in foreign languages. This way, we wouldn’t be subjected to the rantings of people like “Last words from the Bunker”, and Steven Kaye.
Hugo, I assure you I am not a Terrorists, I do will not die in the name of Allah, nor will would I murder innocent people. The question really is, “why do the left always stand up for these killers?, why do they call Howard a Terrorist and call the Terrorists heroes? So Says Snoopy.
Yes, I agree, things couldn’t possibly be going better for Howard.
Only 10 points behind in actual polls, and outright winner of the prestigious Courier-Mail lucky-dip!
Yes perhaps you are right Snoopy by 2010 Malcolm Turnbull may be leader against Dillard who stabbed Rudd in the back after he lost the election lol. I cant see Labor winning 16 or 17 seats…2007 will be like 1998 a tough close election but the Man of Steel winning once again!
When you look at the ALP federally all you can do is laugh you cant take them seriously and they are fully of people who are as useful as tits on a bull, point in case Wayne Swan…need i say more!
I mean can you walk up to your average punter and say name 4 members of Labor’s front bench without naming Garret or Gillard they couldnt do it why?? Because they are nobodies who have no experience whatsoever….the ALP are a long way of having the experienced team necessary to govern and if they are elected in 2007 highly unlikely as it is they’ll be worse than Whitlam, God even Whitlam had more leadership experience than Krudd!!!!
As mentioned previously, an ALP-Green deal is not just about Greens getting enough votes to win a Senate seat: its also about the ALP protecting its primary. Consider the impact in a range of inner-city seats, all safely ALP held. If enough ALP voters decide that they don’t wish to vote ALP 1 (because the ALP does a deal with FFP, burns forests or whatever) the Greens may get past the Libs. Lib voters may decide they don’t want an ALP person in the seat (because the ALP is the alternative Govt, not the Greens), or the Liberal Party itself may decide that the ALP needs to lose a few HoR seats to push it into minority Govt and so issues an HTV preferencing the Greens. Lib voters, dutiful and obediant as they are, follow their HTV and it elects a Green MHR.
Further, these same Green voters (say 1-3% state-wide) decide to do the same in the Senate, thus shoring up a Green senator. With each vote now worth $2.10 they could also lose quite a few $thou in electoral funding. A Green MHR presents them with a wedge in the HoR’s and may undermine the ALP’s ability to put forward their own agenda (especially in a tight or hung parliament).
All very painful. A better scenario is a to give the Greens a few prefernces, keep you votes (and poach what you can from conservative voters of the FFP/Lib types). Thee FFP MAY be able to influence their own vote (of which I’m not convinced), but unless the ALP gets a guarantee in respect of the Senate voting intentions (including preference allocations of FFP), it could simply be creating more problems for itself in the future.
That said, the other scenario to consider is the one already canvassed here of Rudd does whatever it takes win this election, and then runs a double-D in 18 months to hopefully capitalise on any favourable winds (and incumbency) to secure a more pliant Senate.
And lets not get confused with Nader-comments. Federal elections can’t work like the US (or even NSW or Qld), so a voter must allocate a preference. Greens have for a very long time said that Libs & ALP are closer on more issues than they are apart, but that doesn’t mean they’re about to go voting for Howard
Ihren papieren bitte?
Halt!
Feur!
Snoopy:
Yes, yes, the ALP and their supporters hate freedom, eat babies and are all terrorist supporters.
By all means continue with your meaningless drivel as all it does is show everyone how arrogant, out of touch and stupid anyone who still votes for Howard really is.
especially with the green-Liberal deal in victoria.
Mike Moore in Stuipid White Men talks about how he thought it was a mistake for nader to campaign in Florida as itwasa swing state and that taking votes off of gore there would only help Bush. Nader went anyway
The real danger to the ALP from the greens is when the ALP is in government
K David, I can assure you that if there is a green-liberal deal in Vic then its something that the Greens don’t know about.
The Greens were elected for their policies, if the ALP propose something the Greens oppose, of course the two parties are going to side together to shoot it down. That is the whole idea.
Stunkrat, lucky for me I can read German, the piece was a sarky crack at the Courier-Mail poll and the poster. Babelfish might give you a readable translation.
Matt, disapproving of a govt action and voting for the opposition as a result are two different things. Which is not to say it can’t happen.
Forest people, I love trees and am an advocate of planting lots of ’em (to replace cleared ones) but I can tell you as “fact” that while forests are very important in a couple of contexts they are unimportant in a political context — no-one is going to vote based primarily on forest policy. Please get over it.
Getting back to actual polls, OzPolitic’s aggregate polling is flawed as it includes 3 Morgan F2F polls in June and only 1 in July; as this poll is generally 2% more pro-Labor than phone polls, it skews the June average. Here’s a revised analysis that only uses phone polls with sample sizes > 1000 (averaging Morgan phone). Only primary votes here.
June:
Galaxy 44-42 Labor
Morgan ph avg 45-40
News 46-39
ACN 48-39
Avg for June 45.8-40 Labor
July
Galaxy1 46-41
News1 48-39
ACN 49-39
News2 47-40
Morgan ph avg 48-36
Galaxy2 44-41
Avg for July: 47-39.3 Labor
So it appears Labor’s primary is up 1%, the Coal is down 1% in July vs June. Whatever preference flows you use, this is a Labor Landslide.
Please explain what policies the Greens have that will wreak havoc on average battling australians.. please explain Nathan i would love to hear what they are.. The Labor party is now a party which has policies which help the rich get richer… but only at slower pace compared to Howards handouts…
And on the betting front in Solomon, the local rag (NT News, page 6) is reporting that Tollner is rapidly falling way behind, currently on $2.40, while the Labor candidate, Hale, is on $1.50, with 60 percent of the money going on Hale. Tollner is quoted as saying he has “no idea” why he is doing so poorly with the bookies.
Labor needs to win 16 seats, not 17 as Snoopy says (he is far from alone in this error – I had to correct a senior MP about it the other day). There are 150 seats. 150 / 2 = 75, so 76 is a majority. Labor currently holds 60 seats. 60 +16 = 76. QED.
The error arises from the belief that Andren’s retirement will hand Calare back to the Nats. Maybe it will (and maybe it won’t), but that doesn’t change the above arithmetic. What it does is increase the number of seats Howard can afford to lose before indendents will hold the balance of power from 12 to 13. If they win Calare but lose 12 to Labor, they will have 76. If they lose 13, 14 or 15 we will have a hung parliament. If they lose 16 Labor wins.
Interesting speculation on the possible bias of Galaxy:
http://howardout.blogspot.com/2007/06/tale-of-two-polls.html
Caveat: I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the content in the link.
Snoopy, I take it then that the last 6 months of polls, that have the ALP rusted onto a 2PP 55-57% range, is ‘just a flesh wound’.
And let me guess, your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries?
With consistent poll results like these, and Howard flailing away for wedges Rudd wont take, I have no need to fart in your general direction.
Just on the Haneef thing and how it plays in the wider community: apparently a lot of people (mostly older I suppose) don’t really know much about SIM card etiquette etc. Speaking to a family member yesterday, I was told that the Haneef case was botched because he was guilty but the evidence was compromised, which made it impossible to charge him. Now that’s ridiculous to my way of thinking, but the argument hinged on the “Why else would he give someone a SIM card?” argument. I know there are reasons for it, but many don’t.
It’s just an example of how most people will come to their own conclusions based on how much they understand about the case. This particular family member has leant to the left recently, but his automatic assumption was that because Haneef was arrested, he must be suspect. The ‘where there’s smoke there’s fire’ approach. He does live in a safe National seat, so maybe his viewpoint is coloured a bit by what he’s hearing up there.
That’s one reason why I think the Haneef saga won’t hurt the Government, though. Entrenched views.
Adam, actually Labor will inevitably form government with a gain of 15 seats.
Not majority government, but frankly a win is a win. Ask Bracks or Beattie.
“Labor’s primary is up 1%, the Coal is down 1% in July vs June. ”
On these figures Howard is home and hosed and Krudd and his stalinist henchpersons are toast.
RE THE HANEEF SAGA
there was a reason to question this chap based on information related to UK
events BUT there appears to to be no basis to charge him
NOR can I see a basis for MR Andrews’ ministerial decision to effectively
over ride the legal process
if the extra information Mr Andrews has is released then why wasn’t this
released earlier ?
I suggest the Government was simply playing politics of the wost kind
I agree that if we have a hung parliament Windsor and Katter are more likely than not to support a Rudd government. Windsor and the Nats detest each other. Katter is mad so who knows what he would do but he would probably go along with Windsor. And as I’ve said before, the Nats are no shoo-in to win Calare, with a strong independent running in Gavin Priestley, the former NSW regional Telstra head.
STROP IS BACK–
First order of the day is to add Snoopy, Glen and Edward St John to my iggy bin (ignore).
SNOOPY for this homophobic pearler–
Snoopy Says:
July 30th, 2007 at 4:31 pm
To: Down and Out of Sà i Gòn………………..To Fagin or Fagot?
GLEN for his inoffensive yet delusional view that only 2 of the pollsters are right (because they tend to tell a better story for the Coalition these days) and the others are wrong (because they don’t) —
” Morgan and AC should be ignored no matter who they said was winning Coalition or ALP it would be bogus they are not credible pollsters the only ones worth taking a look at is Galaxy and Newspoll “.
EDWARD ST JOHN because he had a ‘brain freeze’ yesterday and decided to spend his Sunday Morning by stealing my ID and posting a serious of fake STROP posts- Amusing for some, childish to me and others. Here is a sample-
STROP Says:
July 29th, 2007 at 8:35 am
I think your right, we better get our two personalities under control before it is too late …. where is my medication.
NOTE: This was actually written by the commenter normally known as Edward St John, who needs to wake up to himself – PB.
If indeed I had a mental health issue requiring medication I would be offended by this idiots comments. Instead I was not offended, more surprised at how childish and immature Edward St John can be.
As William noted, he has apologised so lets move on. I just feel I had the right of reply of at some level. Its done now , so I move on. Normal transmission from Strop to follow; Thank you to those who supported me.
In a hung parliament, you’d think the Independents would most likely support whichever of Labor / Coalition held the closest to 76 seats.
Whatever happens Costello will never be PM.
If the Liberals win they wont want him leading into the next election. Better to put in Turnbull, give him 3 years expeirence and of course there will be some other egos.
Exactly, and if Labor won 15 seats they would have 75 to the Coalition’s 73. In these circumstances they would surely support Labor rather than make it 75-75.
Katter is a wild child. I don’t see him voting for Labor’s side of the floor- Does he have any history of doing this ?
Anyway, if it comes down to Katter and the other Indy holding the balance of power per se the (expected but not fixed in stone) DD will sort that mess out, or won’t it ?
I think Snoopy was typing his posting with one hand.
Which way would Preistley swing Adam ? He is a conservative is he not ?
I don’t mind having people on here with opposing views (all welcome) but why do they have to be so bloody obnoxious while expressing them?
There won’t be a hung parliament. Labor will be lucky to pick up even 7 or 8 seats this election. Then we will have to see when Dillard finally stabs Krudd in the back and who will lead the ALP to their sixth consecutive loss in 2010. The polls’ trend shows that the ALP has lost about half their lead since their peak in March, and it is about the same time between now and then and now and when the election is called. Once the election is called Howard can expect another 4-5% 2pp bounce as people will continue to go with the trusted option. That puts the Howard Government in a pretty much winning position……. and how is Labor going to find the 17 ridings they need to win the election when they are going to actually LOSE ridings in WA and Victoria? Remember no-one here has seriously thought about LABOR marginals, just like last time… a swag of them are just waiting to be lost……..
Nostradamus,
You are entitled to your views on who you think will win of course but you do have an obligation to get basic facts correct. Please no more about Labor needing 17 seats when it is 16 seats. This point is dead and buried.(see Adam above at 6:02 for explanation)
Nostradamus Says:
July 30th, 2007 at 8:17 pm
“The polls’ trend shows that the ALP has lost about half their lead since their peak in March”.
Again, delusional Nostra. Howard may yet win, but I won’t because he reads your advise on the state of play in the electorate.
Nostrodamus, getting a little too overconfident and cocky?
If Rudd lost badly and stepped down, the next leader of the ALP would be Bill Shorten: there’s no way Gillard will ever get it.
[Dillard (sic) finally stabs Krudd in the back and who will lead the ALP to their sixth consecutive loss in 2010.]
Try again…
She is from the left, the ALP leader always requires support from the right. I can’t see enough right votes supporting her, so she will never be leader.
Fools, I didn’t say that Dillard would ever be ALP leader; I said one would wonder WHEN Dillard would stabb Krudd in the back and WHO would lead the ALP to their sixth consecutive loss, be it Shorten or Swan or whoever. Maybe you should get better reading glasses….. Even Shorten’s attempts to turn the ALP into a “centrist Bliarite” party may not be enough to save their skin. Perhaps they’ll simply wither away as far as a political force goes.
And, quite frankly, 16/17 seats makes no difference because they [ALP] aren’t going to get anywhere near that.
Just a thought on the haneef thing….alot of comments today on whether the “botched job” counts for or against the goverment.
I’m no expert but I see three phases here
1) Detain a man for questioning as long as legally possible if there is the slightest whif of terrorism connections. THis part seems to have been done well and competently.
2) Don’t allow a man to hold a current visa if you know he’s got an link to active terrorists. THis also seems to have been done well.
3) Charge a man if there is a reasonable chance of conviction. THis appears to have been utterly and comprehensively messed up. The man is innocent until proven otherwise!!!!!
BY my reckoning its 2 out of 3 for the good guys. I think punters will be outraged at the sheer incometence of the charge sheet issues and still want a returned governement.