10.55pm. I take it there will be no more updates from the ABC. My final thought for the time being is that this could be yet another cruel result for the Greens, who cannot be certainly of winning anything. The count for Melbourne has progressed a little further on the VEC site, and the 2PP count has Bronwyn Pike 1.9 per cent ahead, suggesting she is home and hosed. As for the upper house, at best they could get up in North Metro, East Metro and South Metro, but these seats are respectively at risk from the DLP, the Liberals and Labor. In fact, my own tip would be that they will only emerge with North Metro.
10.29pm. Slightly drunken note-taking from Antony Green’s call of the upper house board. Kerry O’Brien says “Labor strategists” believe Labor might win 20 or 21 seats and the Greens might not win anything. But on current information, the scoreboard reads: EAST VIC : 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Nationals. NORTH VIC: Labor 2, Liberal 2, Nationals 1. WEST VIC: 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. EAST METRO: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens. Antony says, “strong chance of 3 Liberal, 2 Labor”. NORTH METRO: 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. Antony didn’t mention the prospect of a DLP win. SOUTH-EAST METRO: 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. SOUTHERN METRO: 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. But Antony tips that the Liberals will overtake the Greens. WEST METRO: 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. I personally was not expecting the Greens to win a seat here. Antony says there is a “chance” of a fourth Labor seat at the Greens’ expense, which is what I had predicted.
10.21pm. Labor won Bellarine quite easily, slightly contrary to my expectations. The Libs won Benambra quite comfortably after an early fright. Swing against Labor of 8 per cent in Bendigo East, but Labor up-and-comer Jacinta Allan still wins quite easily. Somewhat smaller swing of 5 per cent in Bendigo West. Good win for Labor in Bentleigh. Greens vote slightly up in Brunswick, so they still ran second, but not enough to trouble Labor. Inadequate swing against Labor of 1.4 per cent in Burwood. Steve Herbert might even pick up a swing in Eltham, making me look like a dill because I tipped him to lose. Evelyn one of my few calls for a Liberal gain which have come good. Liberal still ahead by 0.3 per cent in Ferntree Gully. Small swing to Liberal in Frankston, but nowhere near enough. Gembrook still very close. Not much trouble for Craig Ingram in Gippsland East. Liberals should get over the line to gain Hastings. Family First has somehow scored 12.6 per cent in the Labor stronghold of Kororoit. Bronwyn Pike’s primary vote in Melbourne is 46.3 per cent, which you’d think would be enough. Labor just ahead in Morwell; I don’t think much has changed in the lower house count for a while. Antony says there has been ‘a lot of slow counts’. Mount Waverley in doubt, but I would expect Greens preferences to get Labor over the line. The big surprise for me (and indeed for John Brumby) is the clear Labor defeat in Narracan. Labor did it easy in Northcote over the Greens. The Libs won the primary vote in Prahran, but the Greens were on 19.7 and Labor are home. Disappointing result for the Greens in Richmond, with the Labor vote up to 48.3 per cent. Nothing became of the Liberal threat to the Nationals in Shepparton, or the Liberal threat to Labor in South Barwon. Denis Napthine did it quite easily in South West Coast.
10.20pm. Still only 53.5 per cent counted in Melbourne, but the tide is unmistakably towards Labor.
10.01pm. Anthony van der Craats, who was a lone voice in his apparently correct call that Labor would hold Melbourne earlier in the evening, still thinks the DLP are looking good for a seat in Northern Metropolitan.
9.49pm. Antony Green doing the call of the board – always my favourite bit. Will take notes as it goes and pump them out in a minute.
9.48pm. I’ve now drunk that one beer too many, but from what I can gather of what Antony Green just said, his guess for the upper house is Labor 19, Liberal 13, Nationals 3, Greens 4, People Power 1. I would be surprised if one Greens seat and the People Power did not fall away in later counting.
9.38pm. I suspect currently in-doubt lower house seats are likely to remain so for this evening. Will continue to follow the upper house count.
9.28pm. The ABC projection still has People Power’s Gabriela Byrne on track to win a seat in Eastern Victoria. But we’re talking about 32,854 votes here, scarcely 10 per cent of the total. Their vote is on 3 per cent – I suggest that this is from rural booths and will come down when the big centres come in.
9.27pm. Steve Bracks delivering his victory speech.
9.25pm. The ABC computer has Labor’s lead over the Greens in Melbourne down from 0.7 per cent to 0.2 per cent, but this is a contest where the computer is of less use as a guide than usual. The Liberal lead in Ferntree Gully has narrowed sharply, from 1.1 per cent to 0.3 per cent. Little change in Gembrook, where Labor holds a very fine lead.
9.17pm. Just having a look at Antony’s upper house projections – it appears that these are based on the actual upper house count, which is at a very early stage. At the moment: NORTH VIC, 2 Labor; 2 Liberal; 1 Nationals. EAST VIC, 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 People Power. WEST VIC, 2 Labor, 2 Liberals, 1 Nationals. NORTH METRO, 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. EAST METRO, 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. SOUTH METRO, 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. WEST METRO, 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. SOUTH-EAST METRO. 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. A couple of Greens wins there that would surprise me.
9.10pm. Similarly, Hastings is still down as doubtful on the ABC site, but the Liberals’ 1.2 per cent lead will be hard to reel in.
9.09pm. Labor 1.1 per cent ahead in Forest Hill, which you’d think would be enough.
9.08pm. The ABC computer now has Labor ahead in Melbourne, by 0.7 per cent.
9.07pm. I earlier said the Liberals had fallen behind in Ferntree Gully, but I may have read it wrong – they are 1.1 per cent ahead, not behind. No change in Gembrook, Labor still 0.3 per cent ahead. Labor has hit the lead in Mount Waverley – behind 0.1 per cent last I checked, they now lead by 0.3 per cent, and the trend seems to be heading in their direction. Labor 0.5 per cent ahead in Kilsyth.
9.06pm. Baillieu boasts of a “very significant swing against the government, of around 2 per cent”. Ptuh.
9.03pm. Ted Baillieu conceding defeat. Has he done enough?
9.00pm. Antony Green has just dropped into comments to alert us to the ABC’s upper house results.
8.58pm. Another addition to the ABC doubtfuls list is Melbourne, which has gone from Greens gain to Greens ahead – possible props to Anthony van der Craats, who appeared out on a limb earlier with his talk of a Labor win.
8.57pm. Labor’s lead in Prahran has fallen, such that the ABC computer has switched it from Labor retain to Labor ahead.
8.55pm. Results like the high CEC vote in Broadmeadows make it harder to extrapolate the upper house outcome than I would have thought. A DLP upset is not out of the question, but a Greens win is more likely.
8.53pm. Still a very low count in Melbourne – and as Antony Green points out, we are less experienced at reading Labor versus Greens swings than Labor versus Liberal swings. The margin has narrowed considerably and Bronwyn Pike is not gone yet. John Brumby says his scrutineers paint a different picture from Antony’s projections and they are a strong chance.
8.52pm. 4.5 per cent for the Citizens Electoral Council in Broadmeadows.
8.47pm. On the lower house vote, the results in the Northern Metropolitan upper house region are about 55.7 per cent Labor, 21.8 per cent Liberal, 15.3 per cent Greens. I’m about to have a play with those figures at the Upperhouse.info calculator.
8.40pm. Click here if you want early upper house figures. If you can make any sense of them, drop me a line.
8.38pm. The Liberals have fallen behind in Ferntree Gully and Gembrook – they formerly lead by 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent, and now trail 0.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent. Their lead in Mount Waverley has narrowed from 0.3 per cent to 0.1 per cent.
8.34pm. Jessica in comments asks for details on South Barwon. The Liberals have picked up a disappointing 2.8 per cent swing and will not win the seat. Returned member Michael Crutchfield has just appeared on ABC TV, vowing swift vengeance upon his enemies.
8.33pm. Yes, the Nationals contested 17 last time and 20 this time.
8.32pm. Aggregate Nationals vote up from 4.3 per cent to 5.8 per cent, although they may have contested more this time.
8.25pm. Kilsyth looking interesting: Liberals ahead on the primary vote; Family First have done almost as well as the Greens on the primary vote, so they won’t close the gap on preferences as easily as they’re used to.
8.25pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in Morwell. So it would appear that the booths in towns like Traralgon have behaved very differently from the rural booths, and may be on their way to saving Brendan Jenkins.
8.23pm. Antony Green reckons Labor looks “pretty good” in Hastings, but that sounded like an overstatement at first – I now realise he meant only that they’re doing well to be in the hunt.
8.21pm. The ABC computer has downgraded Morwell from Liberal gain (which is wrong, because the Nationals are far ahead of them) to Liberal ahead; Forest Hill is now Labor ahead rather than Labor retain.
8.14pm. Self-flagellation time (because it’s all about me, you see). I was clearly wrong about Mildura (a Nationals gain), South Barwon and Eltham (retained by Labor), South West Coast (retained by Liberal), Morwell (won by the Nationals, although the ABC site says Liberals – presumably because it factored in a Labor versus Liberal two-party contest) and Rodney (which I said the Liberals would win from the Nationals, though I qualified it by saying it dependend on the Labor how-to-vote card, which I don’t know about). I picked the Liberals to win Ferntree Gully, Gembrook and Mount Waverley, but they are very slightly behind in each -by 0.1 per cent, 0.3 per cent and 0.3 per cent.
8.12pm. The raw figures in Melbourne look all right for Labor, but it’s obviously the apartment blocks that are coming in first because Antony’s swing calculation is 10.6 per cent to the Greens.
8.10pm. Labor “ahead” in Ferntree Gully – by 0.1 per cent.
8.09pm. Both Brunswick and Northcote are now down as Labor retain on the ABC site, so the Greens have not pulled rabbits out of the hat there.
8.07pm. Despite the apparent win in Melbourne, the Greens do not seem to be doing quite as well as expected on some measures. I was told to expect that they would run second in Albert Park, but that’s not the case at the moment. Still too early to say anything about the upper house.
8.05pm. Richmond still down as doubtful on the ABC computer, but my own information is that Labor should win.
8.04pm. Primary vote totals with about a third counted have Labor on about 42 per cent, Coalition 40 per cent, Greens 9 per cent, Family First 4 per cent – roughly what the polls said, except Greens slightly lower and Family First higher.
8.03pm. ABC computer now has Bayswater as a Liberal gain.
7.59pm. Family First polling very well, in the 4 per cent ballpark. Preferences should prohibit them from winning an upper house seat.
7.58pm. John Brumby says Narracan is “a serious problem for us”. He is surprised, and so am I. The ABC has it as Liberal gain, which I hadn’t noticed before. ABC also has Morwell down as a gain for the Nationals, meaning they have picked up from seven to nine and might even retain party status.
7.56pm. Looks like Russell Savage really has lost Mildura to the Nationals, who actually look poised to increase their number of seats, in the lower house at least.
7.55pm. ABC has changed Benambra from Liberal ahead to Liberal retain.
7.54pm. Lineball in Mount Waverley – both margin and swing are 2.3 per cent.
7.54pm. ABC TV says only a small Liberal swing in Frankston (margin a bit over 5 per cent), at which the Libs were throwing money like it was going out of fashion.
7.53pm. Labor looking good in Bentleigh but likely to lose Bayswater.
7.48pm. Antony has helpfully extrapolated total results for the upper house regions – the Greens are higher than I figured in South Metro and lower in North Metro, possibly even low enough in the latter to not win the seat. But this could be distorted – for example, the Docklands booth is in but a lot of the Fitzroy/Collingwood booths are not.
7.47pm. Labor reportedly untroubled in Prahran.
7.44pm. Still can’t find complete results from the ABC site, but the doubtful seats include Ferntree Gully, Hastings, Kilsyth and Mount Waverley (Liberal leading), and Gembrook (Labor leading). Also in the mix are the Liberal seats of Benambra and Box Hill.
7.43pm. Labor at least holding their ground in the similarly marginal Eltham, which I had picked as a Liberal gain.
7.41pm. Labor holding their ground in Mordialloc, which required a swing of about 4 per cent to lose.
7.38pm. ABC computer calling Melbourne for the Greens.
7.37pm. Liberals look to have retained South West Coast, contrary to my quirky prediction. Still a lot of talk about Morwell, which could go to the Nationals.
7.36pm. Looking like a big swing against Labor in their very marginal seat of Kilsyth.
7.33pm. To those alarmed by the alleged Family First gain in Caulfield, Antony has confirmed it is a computer error.
7.33pm. Is it my imagination, or have the seat-by-seat results on the ABC site disappeared? Someone give me a link if they can help.
7.31pm. Fairly solid swing to the Libs in Gembrook, which they should gain.
7.28pm. Antony says an overall swing against Labor of 3 per cent, slightly at the lower end of market expectations. Bit over 10 per cent counted.
7.27pm. Antony’s computer has Evelyn as a Liberal gain.
7.26pm. According to Ian in comments, Jenny Macklin says it’s looking very good for Labor in Richmond.
7.25pm. More encouraging for Labor in Richmond – the Greens vote is down 5.5 per cent in the Richmond South booth, worth about 2 per cent of the total.
7.24pm. Hotham Hill booth in Melbourne, worth about 4 per cent of the total, also showing strong enough results for the Greens to win them the seat.
7.20pm. Bit more than 10 per cent counted in Forest Hill – Libs ahead on raw figures, but Antony calculates an inadequate 3.7 per cent swing. The margin is a bit over 5 per cent.
7.20pm. Antony Green pretty much calling the election for Labor.
7.19pm. Ian in comments says Russell Savage has conceded Mildura, suggesting it might not be such a bad night for the Nationals after all. I would have held off a bit longer if I were Russell.
7.18pm. Antony’s computer calling Rodney for the Nationals – this was the one seat where Labor was directing preferences against them, unless I’m much mistaken.
7.16pm. ABC looking at Benambra, tipped by some as a possible upset Labor win. There is in fact a swing to the Liberals. No chance of Bill Baxter winning the seat for the Nationals.
7.16pm. Early results in South Barwon show a smaller swing against Labor than I anticipated.
7.13pm. Big swing to the Liberals in Caulfield, where they seemed to be campaigning harder than they needed to be. At least that’s what Antony Green says – Robert Doyle says he hears the opposite. My money’s on Antony.
7.12pm. The large-ish Docklands booth in Melbourne is in, but it’s new and can’t be compared with an old result. Liberal 39.5, Labor 35.1, Greens 23.0 – remembering this is a very different area from the rest of the seat.
7.10pm. Uneven results in Mount Waverley – small swing to Labor in a smallish booth, big swing to Liberal in a bigger one.
7.07pm. Similar swing in the similarly marginal Kilsyth, off slightly fewer votes.
7.05pm. One booth in from Ferntree Gully (worth 1.6 per cent); Antony calculates the swing at 2.3 per cent, making it very close.
7.05pm. A quite large booth in Hastings has Family First on an impressive 6.6 per cent; Labor down 1.1 per cent, Liberals down 4.4 per cent, Greens down 2.5 per cent.
7.03pm. First booth in from Bayswater looks promising for the Liberals.
7.00pm. John Brumby sounding slightly more optimistic about Evelyn than I indicated.
6.58pm. Big early swing to Ted Baillieu in Hawthorn.
6.58pm. 4.7 per cent counted in Evelyn, 3.2 per cent swing to the Liberals – enough to win them the seat.
6.58pm. And now Savage says “the trends are” that he will lose.
6.57pm. Still early days, but indications Russell Savage is far from home and hosed in Mildura.
6.56pm. 3 per cent counted in Macedon, Labor holding firm.
6.55pm. Narracan up to 4.0 per cent counted, almost enough to be interesting, shows a 10 per cent swings to the Liberals – but these would be regional booths, with Labor’s strong area of Moe still to come.
6.54pm. John Brumby also notes strong Greens performance in Mount Waverley.
6.53pm. First booth in from Melbourne, worth about 200 votes, has Labor down 6.5 per cent and the Greens up 2.2 per cent, confirming that Bronwyn Pike is in trouble.
6.50pm. Less than 2 per cent counted in Ripon, swing to the Liberals just under 2 per cent.
6.43pm. By my reckoning the first booth in Mount Waverley has Labor steady on the primary vote and as much as 4 per cent on two-party. But we’re talking about 1 per cent of the vote here.
6.41pm. Ditto John Brumby’s call of a fall in the Liberal primary vote.
6.41pm. Robert Doyle speaking of early results flowing against Russell Savage, sounding a little too cocky a little too early for my money.
6.40pm. Very early Seymour results (1.0 per cent), Antony’s computer calls a 6.2 per cent swing to Labor. There are three booths here.
6.39pm. 0.9 per cent counted in Mildura. Obviously a strong Nationals booth – they strongly lead independent member Russell Savage, who I do not expect to be troubled.
6.39pm. Don’t listen to me – Antony Green’s computer shows a swing to the Nats. The figures are much too small to be meaningful.
6.36pm. Very early, very small number of votes in Lowan (one of the few safe Nationals seats) suggest a drop in the Nationals vote.
6.30pm. Votes are in from the Mount Buller booth in Benalla – all 28 of them. Just thought I’d mention it.
6.28pm. Seven booths allegedly in from quite a few places – obviously a test of some sort. Looking like the VEC site will not be providing booth results, unless I’m missing something.
6.16pm. Front page of the VEC results page says seven booths are in from Scoresby and Bayswater, which sounds a bit unlikely. In any case, no results are up.
6.02pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s Victorian election night coverage, live from the salubrious Richmond Hill Hotel (three stars, budget rooms from $45 a night). Polls are now closed, and the very first results should be online in about half an hour.
The ‘brief shining moment’ was almost enough to make me grab the TARDIS, go back to 1978 and reverse my vote to disband the DLP at that year’s State Conference. Imagine if there had been no Split in 1955 how often Victoria would have had the benefit of a Labor Government. The key lesson for me is the State Government has to do a good job with basic services – and no one can say the Bracks team has not done that – to stay in office. Steve’s victory speech was the most animated I have seen him in the campaign. While the Liberals have gained some seats, they will really have to stand for something to have a chance in 2010. The fact-free claims of the ‘do-nothing’ Bracks Government won’t cut it after 11 years of its doing good things.
Imagine if there had been no Split in 1955 how often Victoria would have had the benefit of a Labor Government.
Is that some sort of mea culpa?
Yes the history of our commonwealth (small “c” used deliberately) would have been quite different if you lot had not so selfishly gone your own way and stayed to fight the good fight with, gasp the Prods. Athiests and your much derided co-religionists who stayed true.
William I have just sent you a graph of the distribution at 61.5% you are welcomed to publish it if your like. I will send more information as and when I process it.
Attached is the distribution graph of the above the line vote for Northern Metropolitan Region
Recent votes received have pushed the Green vote up and with te help of People Power and the Australian Democrats the Greens who were sitting below quota were pushed over the line. The DLP was in second place and less then 1 percentage point would have picked up the Liberal Vote surplus to be a serious competitor coming from behind. Whilst it is possible for a reversal of fortune as postals and additional votes are included into the count the odds are with the Greens to win the seat. It will go down to preferences. Problem is we do not know how many postal votes have been issued and how many returned and how many outstanding. The VEC would not provide this information when it was requested. WHY we have no idea. This information is normally made available.
Anthony van der Craats
It was close and a good effect form the DLP to have come from behind like that. Who knows if the Liberal vote increases the outcome could change. Problem is we do not know how many postal votes were issued. This data is not available. Mr Tully refused to make the information available when we questioned that information that indicated he had authorised a pre-counting of the electronic voting prior to the close of the poll. We are seeking legal advice as to his entitlement to access the voting data and count the vote without any scrutineers being present. We were told this information would be available. I personally think he should resign.
Which seat do you want next…
No mea culpa intended. Doctor Evatt should never have launched his attack on the Victorian Branch of the ALP. If you can get hold of Robert Murray’s The Split, it will give you all the details. I also argue that the strength of Labor in Victoria today comes partly from the fact that it was the home of the DLP. While the DLP has been seen by some poltical scientists as allowing ALP voters to move to the Liberals in two steps, I think it actually parked some of them in the Labor camp and once the DLP disbanded, they went back to the ALP.
What happened with my predictions
Greens to win
Melbourne: This won’t be happening, sure 23% for the Greens is a good result, but they really have been thumped
Liberals to gain 3/8
Hastings Liberals appear home with 51.5% should have won it by more
Bayswater Liberals ahead 52.9%
Mt Waverly Liberals ahead 50.1% I think the ALP may fall over the line
South Barwon ALP 53.2%, very nice win for the ALP, the Greens only polled 8%, that seems low, good win for the ALP
Kilsyth ALP ahead 50.2 should fall over the line
Gembrook ALP lead 50.8, the ALP may hold, this seat shows why its a poor result for the Liberals, the Greens polled 10%
Ripon ALP hold 54.8% a very good win, Joe Helper can’t be far from the frontbench,
the Liberal primary vote of 33% is very poor, after 7 years out of Government, they should have polled closer to mid 40s
Everlyn Liberals won 52.8%, good win
Seats to close to call
Burwood ALP Hold, this is either a very good result for the ALP, or a very bad result for the Liberals
Mitcham A big swing against Tony Robinson, the East link issue wasn’t as strong here as some think, Mitchem is a very diverse seat, so the result here is a clearer reflexion on how the state is travelling, good win for the ALP, must watch in 2010
Forrest Hill I tip the ALP to just hold, this is the sort of seat that will stay with the Government, while Brack is ALP leader
Frankston A very good win for the ALP, Harkness is seen as a good local MP, in what is a very tough seat for the ALP
Prahran The Greens should be very happy with nearly 20%, the ALP will be happy to hold a seat which isn’t labor by nature, be interesting to look more closely at individual booths
Seymour Great result for the ALP with 6% margin
Eltham Not a surprise, the only reason I had it as too close, was I wasn’t sure how the Greens would go, overall a very good win
Narracan Liberal gain, I’m not surprised with this result
Morwell the Nats have really given the ALP a scare, but the ALP appear to have just fallen over the line
Bellarine a very strong result for the ALP
Bentleigh a really good result for the ALP
Mordallioc another shocker for the Liberals
Richmond ALP beat the Greens, not surprised, I have for a long time though the Greens were overrated
Mornington A very solid win for the Liberals
Box Hill The Liberals appear to hold it, ALP would be disappointed.
Bass Not surprised with Liberal win
South Coast Not surprised with Liberal win
All up a very good win for the ALP holding their ground in the regional centres of Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong
Inner City The ALP will be very happy, sure the Greens have polled well, but the ALP have clearly won several very hard fought campaigns,
interesting to see if the rift between the ALP and the Greens can be repaired or it turns into open conflict between the two,
while the Liberals wanted Prahran, they’ll be happy with the swing, also the results in Hawthorn and Kew were very strong.
Eastern Suburbs A good result for the Liberal party, for they won Bayswater and Everlyn, but they underachieved, so in all a disappointing result,
but you could argue they are well placed for 2010, but so are the ALP, both the Greens and Family First will be happy with there results out East.
Southern Suburbs A great result for the ALP, in holding Bentleigh, Mordiallioc and Frankston with good margins, these seats are critical in choosing whom Governs.
I leave the Upperhouse up to others.
Southern Metropolitan.
At just under 60% of the enrolled counted the results are. ALP 2 Lib 2 Grn 1
Again late polling results have seen the Greens elected. Thats two Greens to data. Next seat Western Metro
Same story as in the Northern Metro The Democracts and People Power push the over the line.. Missing of course is the number of Postal votes that have been issued. information that Mr Tully has refused to provide although in previous elections this information was readily available., Should have been on the VEC ‘s web site.
Counting seems to have stopped.
A big batch of votes boosted the Greens in NMET to 0.981 of a quota, and they take the 5th seat.
Eastern Victoria is still a winner for them (suprisingly)
(I think I said this an hour ago, does Bludger have cracks in the fkooboard?)
Western Metro the Greens pick up a third seat at 65% of the enrolled vote counted. Same story as before ALP 3 Lib 1 Grn 1
East Victoria electing a Green while I didn’t pick, it isn’t a surprise for the Greens poll well in areas like Gembrook and the Mornington Peninsula
Eatsern Metro 62% enroled counted. Greens miss out a fourth seat. ALP 2 Lib 3.
Eastern is a very close race and will be decided on postals and below the line votes. A slim chance of the Greens coming in front
At 62% less then 0.5% difference. If only we know the number of postal votes that have been issued. Could there be hat mysterious bundle of 50 ballot papers. We have no idea as the number of ballot papers issued was not provided by the Electoral Office who it looks like had counted the e-votes ahead of time… Hmmmm
South Eastern ALP 3 Lib 2 at 63% of the enroled vote counted
No contest a clear decided will not need a preferences count. The VBEC can save some money, judging by Mr Tully’s approach I think they will need it because if the information in relation to the election is not provided I will take them back to VCAT and look forward tio the evidnec he and his staff will give under oath.
I’m confident the Nats are safely home in Morwell. The VEC shows the ALP/Lib 2PP with an ALP lead of 400 votes. However there are 3300 Lib votes & 7300 Nats, which means 7300 conservative preferences have have been distributed, instead of the 3300 that will actually have to be…thats 4000 less. If the leakage is only 10%, that is 400 votes less that will leak, giving the Nats a 400 vote lead over the ALP instead of the VEC’s 400 vote ALP lead over the Lib.
This dosent even take into account the fact that Nat prefs are more likely to leak than the more disciplined Lib Prefs. Taking this into account, the Nat lead could be as high as 1000.
This result must be the shocker of the night. The ALP will need to re-consider its response to the greenhouse issue or risk alienating a significant section of its base. Bracks said in his (well delivered) victory speech that the result sends a message to Canberra on global warming, it may turn out to be the opposite of the one he was intending.
Eastern Victoria is not in the Greens favor just yet. Depends on the missing postal data that Tully would not provide. The only reason they come close is the lower then expected polling from the Liberal party who as I have said just 0.5% ahead of teh greens for the last spot.
I am tied shall I push on for the three rural seats … Ok I will do western vic next. Mind you I have not checked to see if the result would change if tyhey had a more accurate formula in the counting of the surplus. Hmm with so many seats close it could be an issue… Thinking a load here guys. Still thinking about the wittness statement in court… Hmm I should start the ball rolling before christmas…
Peter K – hopefully not the person I’m thinking of – makes a good point. Losing the LaTrobe Valley is a big blow for Labor. It cannot afford to become the Greens Lite.
Let’s talk about People Power.
Western Victoria 67.5% of the vote counted ALP 3 Lib 2. Loks like the ALP will have 2,3,3,3,2,3,2,2 20 seats. A split house.
As earlier predicted it is a close race with the DLP coming second in the finish line. But a 1.5% margin give the ALP that extra lead that will be hard to peg back on postals and absentee. But in the absence of this information and the refusal of Mr Tully to provide this information it is hard to tell. VCAT here we come..
I know VCAT are good at Planning and other legal issues lol:) but do they handle Electial issues well.
Northern Victoria 67% of the enrolled voters counted. As expected ALP 2 Lib 2 i NP.
Last Eastern Victoria 68% enrolled counted. No surprise ALP 2 Lib 2 NO 1 will go to preferences but clear cut solid win for the NP..
Having a look at the final board for the lower house result is becoming clearer. ALP has 53 definately. Libs 21 (+4), Nats 9 (+2), Ind 1 (-1), 4 Doubtful.
Doubtful:
Ferntree Gully (Lib ahead by 75)
Kilsyth (ALP ahead by 152)
Gembrook (ALP ahead by 251)
Mount Waverley (Lib ahead by 104)
Lib Gains: Narracan, Hastings, Evelyn, Bayswater.
Nat Gains: Mildura & Morwell.
The worst result for the conservatives would be 57-30-1, compared to the previous 62-24-2. The best possible is 53-34-1.
I haven’t seen the statewide 2PP figures but I think the overall swing must be more like 3-4% than the 2% I’ve been hearing.
Thanks William for this excellent site.
I am convinced that people are wrong in assuming that the DLP win Northern Metro. According to the VEC, the Greens have 16.31% of the vote. While the DLP harvest preferences from Independents, Family First, the ALP surplus and People Power, this only takes them to 10%. Meanwhile the Democrats provide 1.09% to the Greens after filtering them through PP.
Kilsyth is absolutely line ball. Pre-polls, postals and absentees last time provide a net gain of 182 for the Liberals, which negates the current 152 Labor margin. However, incumbency provides a considerable advantage in postals especially, so my guess is that Labor will win by something less than 100 votes.
Gembrook is a magnificient result for Tammy Lobato. Given that her margin of 1.6% last time was almost entirely attributable to the Robert Dean fiasco and the Liberals’ being forced to pre-select a new candidate at the last minute. the probability that she’ll hang on is an outstanding achievement.
Morwell looks very shaky on Peter K’s plausible analysis.
My big error was in over-estimating the anti-Labor sentiment in Geelong and Ballarat. I thought there would be serious vote slippage there and that as a consequence Labor had no hope of three Upper House seats in Western Vic.
Results
Region, ALP, LIB, NP, GRN, DLP
Eastern Metropolitan, 2, 2, 0, 1, 0
Eastern Victoria, 2, 2, 1, 0, 0
Northern Metropolitan, 3, 1, 0, 1, 0
Northern Victoria, 2, 2, 1, 0, 0
South Eastern Metropolitan, 3, 2, 0, 0, 0
Southern Metropolitan, 2, 2, 0, 1, 0,
Western Metropolitan, 3, 1, 0, 1, 0
Western Victoria, 3, 2, 0, 0, 0,
Sum, 20, 14, 2, 4, 0
People Power wasted how much in lost deposits???
They Gambled and lost. Big time. Better stick to tatts lotto…
All they were was a feeder for the Greens… at $350 per person they blew the lot… Might as well placed your bets on black on the casino. better odds
Re VCAT Yes they handle FOI.,
Yes PP were led into oblivion by Stephen Mayne. A shame, so good people involved.
some* good people involved
Melb City, The Greens have NO HOPE of landing a seat in West Metro. Even If they manage to be one of the two last remaining parties in the contest, with the Liberal vote going towards Labor, Labor ends up with a easy win to the tune of 3-4%.
My version of the cut-up for LC is:
Region ALP LIB NP GRN DLP Total
Eastern Metropolitan 3 2 0 0 0 5
Eastern Victoria 2 2 1 0 0 5
Northern Metropolitan 3 1 0 1 0 5
Northern Victoria 2 2 1 0 0 5
South Eastern Metropolitan 3 2 0 0 0 5
Southern Metropolitan 2 2 0 1 0 5
Western Metropolitan 4 1 0 0 0 5
Western Victoria 3 2 0 0 0 5
Sum 22 14 2 2 0 40
THese were all run through a cut-up program that uses the Ticket votes. The BTLs can alter this but not much. Postals, etc can alter it a lot more. Eastern Victoria has a very close race between Nats and Greens, but it no longer seems like the Greens can do it. Eastern and Western Met are outside chances for them. Western Met is more likely to finish up 4ALP than 3ALP:1Green in the cut-up for the last seat
Did the bad look of the G20 protests reduce the Green vote on the day? Or was Garrett’s green credentials trump everybody else’s?
One result that appears extraordinary, but wasn’t discussed since it didn’t influence the outcome, is the Citizens Electoral Council’s showing in Broadmeadows.
4.77%, and ahead of Family First.
http://www.tallyroom.vic.gov.au/state2006tallyroomelectorateBroadmeadowsDistrict.html
The nutter conspiracy vote is normally
… under 1%, so the LaRouchites must have something happening up there.
bmwofoz -> the Liberals historically perform better with the postals and pickup around 0.5% extra over the ALP which should tip them over the line in Kilsyth & Gembrook if history is any guide and increase their margins in Mt. Waverley & Ferntree Gully
53-34-1 would have to be the favoured outcome
The big question is: who will have the balance of power in the upper house?
According to Antony Green’s (somewhat drunken by the end of the night) election analysis it will be: ALP 19, L/NP 18, Greens 3, with the Greens holding the balance of power.
I’m not as educated on this as many of you seem to be, but would be interested to gain your thoughts.
William you need to look at what happened in Caulfield 13% swing against Labor. One reason only. And What happened in Narracan? Could this be a computer error? No one I have spoken to has provided any real feedback or clear explanation.
I have updated my posts on my blog on Melbourne Richmond and Prahran.
What’s clear based on all polling and the election result is that Labor picked up 2% (from 40% to 42%) and the Liberal Party went down 2% (from 36% to 34%)in the last week of the campaign. ACNielsen and Newspoll were the most accurate with galaxy poll proving again that its methodology is in need of serious review. The Sunday Herald Sun should seek a refund.
Yes no doubt about it the involvement of ALP spokesperson and environmental activist Peter Garrett help Bronwyns Campaign. Whats al;so interesting is that teh Liberal Party out polled the Greens in Richmond.
Over all a great result for the ALP. A forth term is possible as it is easirt for a respected government to win a forth term then the third, with most victorians having lived under the current government.
The ALP, unlike the Liberal Party, has undergone a transition of renewal with new fresh talent such as the member for Northcote who that will serve labor well into the future.
For the benefit of the confused – like me – can someone just summarize which of the MINOR parties has won seat/s (or are on track to do so).
Libs pulling ahead in Kilsyth now
Kirstie Marshall’s lead in Forest Hill is eroding at a fast rate …. but she should still hold on by a whisker I reckon
Gembrook is the main in doubt seat now, but no new numbers there as yet
jon:
Greens may have one two upper house seats. Both are very close.
DLP threat in north metro receding.
I get the impression that Labor’s dirt tactics had a strong effect on the Green vote. The Greens probably weren’t defensive enough though. Hopefully Peter Batchelor will at least be moved on from his Transport portfolio at least.
Pike’s lead in Melbourne is now almost 1200. Looks like a win.
Some explanations re Narracan and Morwell. Anti-Labor sentiment was based largely on greenhouse and water issues. There is concern in Narracan that Bracks will divert more water from the Thomson Dam to Melbourne.
Labor’s Morwell campaign was in turmoil after former MP Derek Amos and former local councillor Lisa Proctor quit from the Traralgon branch and the party. The sitting member Brendan Jenkins was perceived as having a strong Morwell bias. Proctor stood as an independent and (I think) her preferences went to the Nats.
The Nats ran a high profile young candidate in former Traralgon footballer Russell Northe who lives in Morwell, who has credentials in both major towns.
The VEC computer kept showing this as a two-party contest between Labor and Liberal but it’s obviously between Labor and Nat. The Nats should win easily unless there’s a big leakage of Proctor’s preferences and that’s unlikely.