10.55pm. I take it there will be no more updates from the ABC. My final thought for the time being is that this could be yet another cruel result for the Greens, who cannot be certainly of winning anything. The count for Melbourne has progressed a little further on the VEC site, and the 2PP count has Bronwyn Pike 1.9 per cent ahead, suggesting she is home and hosed. As for the upper house, at best they could get up in North Metro, East Metro and South Metro, but these seats are respectively at risk from the DLP, the Liberals and Labor. In fact, my own tip would be that they will only emerge with North Metro.
10.29pm. Slightly drunken note-taking from Antony Green’s call of the upper house board. Kerry O’Brien says “Labor strategists” believe Labor might win 20 or 21 seats and the Greens might not win anything. But on current information, the scoreboard reads: EAST VIC : 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Nationals. NORTH VIC: Labor 2, Liberal 2, Nationals 1. WEST VIC: 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. EAST METRO: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens. Antony says, “strong chance of 3 Liberal, 2 Labor”. NORTH METRO: 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. Antony didn’t mention the prospect of a DLP win. SOUTH-EAST METRO: 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. SOUTHERN METRO: 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. But Antony tips that the Liberals will overtake the Greens. WEST METRO: 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. I personally was not expecting the Greens to win a seat here. Antony says there is a “chance” of a fourth Labor seat at the Greens’ expense, which is what I had predicted.
10.21pm. Labor won Bellarine quite easily, slightly contrary to my expectations. The Libs won Benambra quite comfortably after an early fright. Swing against Labor of 8 per cent in Bendigo East, but Labor up-and-comer Jacinta Allan still wins quite easily. Somewhat smaller swing of 5 per cent in Bendigo West. Good win for Labor in Bentleigh. Greens vote slightly up in Brunswick, so they still ran second, but not enough to trouble Labor. Inadequate swing against Labor of 1.4 per cent in Burwood. Steve Herbert might even pick up a swing in Eltham, making me look like a dill because I tipped him to lose. Evelyn one of my few calls for a Liberal gain which have come good. Liberal still ahead by 0.3 per cent in Ferntree Gully. Small swing to Liberal in Frankston, but nowhere near enough. Gembrook still very close. Not much trouble for Craig Ingram in Gippsland East. Liberals should get over the line to gain Hastings. Family First has somehow scored 12.6 per cent in the Labor stronghold of Kororoit. Bronwyn Pike’s primary vote in Melbourne is 46.3 per cent, which you’d think would be enough. Labor just ahead in Morwell; I don’t think much has changed in the lower house count for a while. Antony says there has been ‘a lot of slow counts’. Mount Waverley in doubt, but I would expect Greens preferences to get Labor over the line. The big surprise for me (and indeed for John Brumby) is the clear Labor defeat in Narracan. Labor did it easy in Northcote over the Greens. The Libs won the primary vote in Prahran, but the Greens were on 19.7 and Labor are home. Disappointing result for the Greens in Richmond, with the Labor vote up to 48.3 per cent. Nothing became of the Liberal threat to the Nationals in Shepparton, or the Liberal threat to Labor in South Barwon. Denis Napthine did it quite easily in South West Coast.
10.20pm. Still only 53.5 per cent counted in Melbourne, but the tide is unmistakably towards Labor.
10.01pm. Anthony van der Craats, who was a lone voice in his apparently correct call that Labor would hold Melbourne earlier in the evening, still thinks the DLP are looking good for a seat in Northern Metropolitan.
9.49pm. Antony Green doing the call of the board – always my favourite bit. Will take notes as it goes and pump them out in a minute.
9.48pm. I’ve now drunk that one beer too many, but from what I can gather of what Antony Green just said, his guess for the upper house is Labor 19, Liberal 13, Nationals 3, Greens 4, People Power 1. I would be surprised if one Greens seat and the People Power did not fall away in later counting.
9.38pm. I suspect currently in-doubt lower house seats are likely to remain so for this evening. Will continue to follow the upper house count.
9.28pm. The ABC projection still has People Power’s Gabriela Byrne on track to win a seat in Eastern Victoria. But we’re talking about 32,854 votes here, scarcely 10 per cent of the total. Their vote is on 3 per cent – I suggest that this is from rural booths and will come down when the big centres come in.
9.27pm. Steve Bracks delivering his victory speech.
9.25pm. The ABC computer has Labor’s lead over the Greens in Melbourne down from 0.7 per cent to 0.2 per cent, but this is a contest where the computer is of less use as a guide than usual. The Liberal lead in Ferntree Gully has narrowed sharply, from 1.1 per cent to 0.3 per cent. Little change in Gembrook, where Labor holds a very fine lead.
9.17pm. Just having a look at Antony’s upper house projections – it appears that these are based on the actual upper house count, which is at a very early stage. At the moment: NORTH VIC, 2 Labor; 2 Liberal; 1 Nationals. EAST VIC, 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 People Power. WEST VIC, 2 Labor, 2 Liberals, 1 Nationals. NORTH METRO, 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. EAST METRO, 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. SOUTH METRO, 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. WEST METRO, 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. SOUTH-EAST METRO. 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. A couple of Greens wins there that would surprise me.
9.10pm. Similarly, Hastings is still down as doubtful on the ABC site, but the Liberals’ 1.2 per cent lead will be hard to reel in.
9.09pm. Labor 1.1 per cent ahead in Forest Hill, which you’d think would be enough.
9.08pm. The ABC computer now has Labor ahead in Melbourne, by 0.7 per cent.
9.07pm. I earlier said the Liberals had fallen behind in Ferntree Gully, but I may have read it wrong – they are 1.1 per cent ahead, not behind. No change in Gembrook, Labor still 0.3 per cent ahead. Labor has hit the lead in Mount Waverley – behind 0.1 per cent last I checked, they now lead by 0.3 per cent, and the trend seems to be heading in their direction. Labor 0.5 per cent ahead in Kilsyth.
9.06pm. Baillieu boasts of a “very significant swing against the government, of around 2 per cent”. Ptuh.
9.03pm. Ted Baillieu conceding defeat. Has he done enough?
9.00pm. Antony Green has just dropped into comments to alert us to the ABC’s upper house results.
8.58pm. Another addition to the ABC doubtfuls list is Melbourne, which has gone from Greens gain to Greens ahead – possible props to Anthony van der Craats, who appeared out on a limb earlier with his talk of a Labor win.
8.57pm. Labor’s lead in Prahran has fallen, such that the ABC computer has switched it from Labor retain to Labor ahead.
8.55pm. Results like the high CEC vote in Broadmeadows make it harder to extrapolate the upper house outcome than I would have thought. A DLP upset is not out of the question, but a Greens win is more likely.
8.53pm. Still a very low count in Melbourne – and as Antony Green points out, we are less experienced at reading Labor versus Greens swings than Labor versus Liberal swings. The margin has narrowed considerably and Bronwyn Pike is not gone yet. John Brumby says his scrutineers paint a different picture from Antony’s projections and they are a strong chance.
8.52pm. 4.5 per cent for the Citizens Electoral Council in Broadmeadows.
8.47pm. On the lower house vote, the results in the Northern Metropolitan upper house region are about 55.7 per cent Labor, 21.8 per cent Liberal, 15.3 per cent Greens. I’m about to have a play with those figures at the Upperhouse.info calculator.
8.40pm. Click here if you want early upper house figures. If you can make any sense of them, drop me a line.
8.38pm. The Liberals have fallen behind in Ferntree Gully and Gembrook – they formerly lead by 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent, and now trail 0.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent. Their lead in Mount Waverley has narrowed from 0.3 per cent to 0.1 per cent.
8.34pm. Jessica in comments asks for details on South Barwon. The Liberals have picked up a disappointing 2.8 per cent swing and will not win the seat. Returned member Michael Crutchfield has just appeared on ABC TV, vowing swift vengeance upon his enemies.
8.33pm. Yes, the Nationals contested 17 last time and 20 this time.
8.32pm. Aggregate Nationals vote up from 4.3 per cent to 5.8 per cent, although they may have contested more this time.
8.25pm. Kilsyth looking interesting: Liberals ahead on the primary vote; Family First have done almost as well as the Greens on the primary vote, so they won’t close the gap on preferences as easily as they’re used to.
8.25pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in Morwell. So it would appear that the booths in towns like Traralgon have behaved very differently from the rural booths, and may be on their way to saving Brendan Jenkins.
8.23pm. Antony Green reckons Labor looks “pretty good” in Hastings, but that sounded like an overstatement at first – I now realise he meant only that they’re doing well to be in the hunt.
8.21pm. The ABC computer has downgraded Morwell from Liberal gain (which is wrong, because the Nationals are far ahead of them) to Liberal ahead; Forest Hill is now Labor ahead rather than Labor retain.
8.14pm. Self-flagellation time (because it’s all about me, you see). I was clearly wrong about Mildura (a Nationals gain), South Barwon and Eltham (retained by Labor), South West Coast (retained by Liberal), Morwell (won by the Nationals, although the ABC site says Liberals – presumably because it factored in a Labor versus Liberal two-party contest) and Rodney (which I said the Liberals would win from the Nationals, though I qualified it by saying it dependend on the Labor how-to-vote card, which I don’t know about). I picked the Liberals to win Ferntree Gully, Gembrook and Mount Waverley, but they are very slightly behind in each -by 0.1 per cent, 0.3 per cent and 0.3 per cent.
8.12pm. The raw figures in Melbourne look all right for Labor, but it’s obviously the apartment blocks that are coming in first because Antony’s swing calculation is 10.6 per cent to the Greens.
8.10pm. Labor “ahead” in Ferntree Gully – by 0.1 per cent.
8.09pm. Both Brunswick and Northcote are now down as Labor retain on the ABC site, so the Greens have not pulled rabbits out of the hat there.
8.07pm. Despite the apparent win in Melbourne, the Greens do not seem to be doing quite as well as expected on some measures. I was told to expect that they would run second in Albert Park, but that’s not the case at the moment. Still too early to say anything about the upper house.
8.05pm. Richmond still down as doubtful on the ABC computer, but my own information is that Labor should win.
8.04pm. Primary vote totals with about a third counted have Labor on about 42 per cent, Coalition 40 per cent, Greens 9 per cent, Family First 4 per cent – roughly what the polls said, except Greens slightly lower and Family First higher.
8.03pm. ABC computer now has Bayswater as a Liberal gain.
7.59pm. Family First polling very well, in the 4 per cent ballpark. Preferences should prohibit them from winning an upper house seat.
7.58pm. John Brumby says Narracan is “a serious problem for us”. He is surprised, and so am I. The ABC has it as Liberal gain, which I hadn’t noticed before. ABC also has Morwell down as a gain for the Nationals, meaning they have picked up from seven to nine and might even retain party status.
7.56pm. Looks like Russell Savage really has lost Mildura to the Nationals, who actually look poised to increase their number of seats, in the lower house at least.
7.55pm. ABC has changed Benambra from Liberal ahead to Liberal retain.
7.54pm. Lineball in Mount Waverley – both margin and swing are 2.3 per cent.
7.54pm. ABC TV says only a small Liberal swing in Frankston (margin a bit over 5 per cent), at which the Libs were throwing money like it was going out of fashion.
7.53pm. Labor looking good in Bentleigh but likely to lose Bayswater.
7.48pm. Antony has helpfully extrapolated total results for the upper house regions – the Greens are higher than I figured in South Metro and lower in North Metro, possibly even low enough in the latter to not win the seat. But this could be distorted – for example, the Docklands booth is in but a lot of the Fitzroy/Collingwood booths are not.
7.47pm. Labor reportedly untroubled in Prahran.
7.44pm. Still can’t find complete results from the ABC site, but the doubtful seats include Ferntree Gully, Hastings, Kilsyth and Mount Waverley (Liberal leading), and Gembrook (Labor leading). Also in the mix are the Liberal seats of Benambra and Box Hill.
7.43pm. Labor at least holding their ground in the similarly marginal Eltham, which I had picked as a Liberal gain.
7.41pm. Labor holding their ground in Mordialloc, which required a swing of about 4 per cent to lose.
7.38pm. ABC computer calling Melbourne for the Greens.
7.37pm. Liberals look to have retained South West Coast, contrary to my quirky prediction. Still a lot of talk about Morwell, which could go to the Nationals.
7.36pm. Looking like a big swing against Labor in their very marginal seat of Kilsyth.
7.33pm. To those alarmed by the alleged Family First gain in Caulfield, Antony has confirmed it is a computer error.
7.33pm. Is it my imagination, or have the seat-by-seat results on the ABC site disappeared? Someone give me a link if they can help.
7.31pm. Fairly solid swing to the Libs in Gembrook, which they should gain.
7.28pm. Antony says an overall swing against Labor of 3 per cent, slightly at the lower end of market expectations. Bit over 10 per cent counted.
7.27pm. Antony’s computer has Evelyn as a Liberal gain.
7.26pm. According to Ian in comments, Jenny Macklin says it’s looking very good for Labor in Richmond.
7.25pm. More encouraging for Labor in Richmond – the Greens vote is down 5.5 per cent in the Richmond South booth, worth about 2 per cent of the total.
7.24pm. Hotham Hill booth in Melbourne, worth about 4 per cent of the total, also showing strong enough results for the Greens to win them the seat.
7.20pm. Bit more than 10 per cent counted in Forest Hill – Libs ahead on raw figures, but Antony calculates an inadequate 3.7 per cent swing. The margin is a bit over 5 per cent.
7.20pm. Antony Green pretty much calling the election for Labor.
7.19pm. Ian in comments says Russell Savage has conceded Mildura, suggesting it might not be such a bad night for the Nationals after all. I would have held off a bit longer if I were Russell.
7.18pm. Antony’s computer calling Rodney for the Nationals – this was the one seat where Labor was directing preferences against them, unless I’m much mistaken.
7.16pm. ABC looking at Benambra, tipped by some as a possible upset Labor win. There is in fact a swing to the Liberals. No chance of Bill Baxter winning the seat for the Nationals.
7.16pm. Early results in South Barwon show a smaller swing against Labor than I anticipated.
7.13pm. Big swing to the Liberals in Caulfield, where they seemed to be campaigning harder than they needed to be. At least that’s what Antony Green says – Robert Doyle says he hears the opposite. My money’s on Antony.
7.12pm. The large-ish Docklands booth in Melbourne is in, but it’s new and can’t be compared with an old result. Liberal 39.5, Labor 35.1, Greens 23.0 – remembering this is a very different area from the rest of the seat.
7.10pm. Uneven results in Mount Waverley – small swing to Labor in a smallish booth, big swing to Liberal in a bigger one.
7.07pm. Similar swing in the similarly marginal Kilsyth, off slightly fewer votes.
7.05pm. One booth in from Ferntree Gully (worth 1.6 per cent); Antony calculates the swing at 2.3 per cent, making it very close.
7.05pm. A quite large booth in Hastings has Family First on an impressive 6.6 per cent; Labor down 1.1 per cent, Liberals down 4.4 per cent, Greens down 2.5 per cent.
7.03pm. First booth in from Bayswater looks promising for the Liberals.
7.00pm. John Brumby sounding slightly more optimistic about Evelyn than I indicated.
6.58pm. Big early swing to Ted Baillieu in Hawthorn.
6.58pm. 4.7 per cent counted in Evelyn, 3.2 per cent swing to the Liberals – enough to win them the seat.
6.58pm. And now Savage says “the trends are” that he will lose.
6.57pm. Still early days, but indications Russell Savage is far from home and hosed in Mildura.
6.56pm. 3 per cent counted in Macedon, Labor holding firm.
6.55pm. Narracan up to 4.0 per cent counted, almost enough to be interesting, shows a 10 per cent swings to the Liberals – but these would be regional booths, with Labor’s strong area of Moe still to come.
6.54pm. John Brumby also notes strong Greens performance in Mount Waverley.
6.53pm. First booth in from Melbourne, worth about 200 votes, has Labor down 6.5 per cent and the Greens up 2.2 per cent, confirming that Bronwyn Pike is in trouble.
6.50pm. Less than 2 per cent counted in Ripon, swing to the Liberals just under 2 per cent.
6.43pm. By my reckoning the first booth in Mount Waverley has Labor steady on the primary vote and as much as 4 per cent on two-party. But we’re talking about 1 per cent of the vote here.
6.41pm. Ditto John Brumby’s call of a fall in the Liberal primary vote.
6.41pm. Robert Doyle speaking of early results flowing against Russell Savage, sounding a little too cocky a little too early for my money.
6.40pm. Very early Seymour results (1.0 per cent), Antony’s computer calls a 6.2 per cent swing to Labor. There are three booths here.
6.39pm. 0.9 per cent counted in Mildura. Obviously a strong Nationals booth – they strongly lead independent member Russell Savage, who I do not expect to be troubled.
6.39pm. Don’t listen to me – Antony Green’s computer shows a swing to the Nats. The figures are much too small to be meaningful.
6.36pm. Very early, very small number of votes in Lowan (one of the few safe Nationals seats) suggest a drop in the Nationals vote.
6.30pm. Votes are in from the Mount Buller booth in Benalla – all 28 of them. Just thought I’d mention it.
6.28pm. Seven booths allegedly in from quite a few places – obviously a test of some sort. Looking like the VEC site will not be providing booth results, unless I’m missing something.
6.16pm. Front page of the VEC results page says seven booths are in from Scoresby and Bayswater, which sounds a bit unlikely. In any case, no results are up.
6.02pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s Victorian election night coverage, live from the salubrious Richmond Hill Hotel (three stars, budget rooms from $45 a night). Polls are now closed, and the very first results should be online in about half an hour.
“Politics_Obsessed Says:
November 25th, 2006 at 10:27 pm
what happened to that WA ALP guy in the midst of the Burke v Carpenter stuff? Did he resign as memeber and MP?”
Yes, Norm Malborough has resigned from both Cabinet, and MLA for Peel.
A By-Election will be held on Feb 3rd 2007.
Do postal votes usually favour Labor or the Liberals? I am interested to see which way these 6 or so ‘doubtful’ seats will go.
marcus: Liberals
North Vic: 2 ALP 2 Lib 1 Nat
“DLP Resurrected after 30 Year Hiatus”
Should be a news article title in the paper.
In my experience, these freak wins for micro-parties tend to come unstuck in late counting.
Hey Bill – is the Vic Upper House preference system as arcane and opaque as the NSW one?
sorry evan the wa question was to anyone in general – because that would give the alp 30 out of 57 seats if Norm forced a by or stood as indep… perhaps that would give the libs/nats a shot at2009….
also anyone catch what happened to claire martin in nt? didnt think it was possible of a leadership challenge in alp state/territory domains – esp. after the landslide martin gave the alp in 2005
and i agree evan – a “hung” parliament could be interesting to watch… depends if debnam shoots himself in the foot again… mind you nsw sucks… labor goes through ministers like ivan milat goes through kills and the liberals live like its survivor macquarie street… there seriously needs to be a third party in the state…… pity the dems wont come back
lol not to be taken seriously – you’ve got a point
And to add for Evan’s comments, it was Brian Burke who resigned from the ALP, after the Premier made the threat that if Burke wasn’t expelled, he’d resign as Premier. Malborough as far as I’m aware is still a member. Carpenter demanded, and sought his resignation from Cabinet, Norm then decided to resign from Parliament on his own violition.
Mind you, Deputy Liberal Leader Troy Buswell’s links with former Lib NoelCritchon-Brown and the secret car park meeting where they discussed Troy’s evidence before the CCC makes the libs whinging sound rather hypocritical.
“DLP Resurrected after 30 Year Hiatusâ€
Should be a news article title in the paper.
I want a Royal Commish into who it was that failed to drive the stake in all the way.
Talk about the undead.
wow abc just updated . kilsyth is now libs ahead
I agree – can’t the DLP just die… perhaps this is what we will get from the democrats in 30 years?
West Metro 4 ALP 1 Lib
wow abc just updated . kilsyth is now libs ahead
Don’t wet yerself PO. THe VEC gives it to the ALP in, as our American cousins would say, a squeaker.
Face up to it son, Ted is dead. Long live the Brassica.
cheers frank – i have a terrible memory atm 🙁 i read all the politics and keep up-to-date then just forget… oh well- I’ll be interesting to your above blogging will – if labor does get in with 21 members in the upperhouse… to control both houses in two consecutive elections… now that would be history…. and to another point – will bracks stay for the end of the term and go another or be replaced? what does everyone think? since mumble pointed out the interesting terms v years prospect that will most likely see beattie replaced by bligh
NTBTS – ha 😛 I was just letting everyone know that’s all
The DLP vote was never as low as the current Dems vote.
A lot of you seem to be getting very concered about the possible DLP winin North Metro. but I wouldn’t be. They only lead the Greens by 3% with only 50% counted and the bigger inter-city booths that lean green still to come in. In the other regions the results currently are:
North Vic. 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 NAT – 52% counted
West Vic. 2 LIB, 3 ALP but the DLP are close too Labor’s third seat here – 60% counted
East Vic. 2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 NAT 43% counted
South East Met 3 ALP, 2 LIB – 46% counted
South Met. 2 ALP, 2 LIB, 1 GRE – 38% counted, Libs are close to tge greens seat
East Metro 3 ALP, 2 LIB – 55% counted, Greens close to ALP third
West Metro 4 ALP, 1 LIB – 59% counted. Only reason for this result in DLP prefencenes that went to Barlow (ALP) before going to the Catholic right and the libs even thought the rest of the ALP was behind them.
So the Upper house looks like 21 ALP, 15 LIB, 2 NAT, 1 GRE, 1 DLP but this WILL change by the end of the night.
Ted Baillieu doing the press conference in Speedos – did that win the Libs any more of the female and/or gay vote? Might be an interesting subject for post election analysis?
On Melbourne: let’s do the maths. At the last election, only 83.94% of electors in Melbourne cast a formal vote (more than 12% didn’t vote, the rest were informal). According to the VEC, in this election 63.29% of the roll has so far been counted in Melbourne. If, for the sake of illustration, turnout is exactly the same this time as in 2002, there are 8021 formal votes left to count with the Greens trailing by 850 on two-party. If my maths is right, the Greens need to win 55.3% of what’s left to pull ahead by one vote (reduce that percentage if the informal vote is lower this time, but I can’t be bothered working it out). Perhaps possible if the outstanding booths, absentees etc are all heavily Green and Labor’s good booths have all been counted. But no one seems to know what’s left out there. Even so, Antony’s computer still has Melbourne as ALP ahead and now predicts a final Labor two-party vote of 51%.
And after being screwy for most of the night, the ABC’s results section is back to normal now.
From Kilsyth primaries it looks to me that the Libs should be ahead (43.3 + 6.7 from FF), unless this is one of the seats in which FF are not preferencing the Libs.
The DLP vote was never as low as the current Dems vote.
Are you sure Speaks? I never realised that the ppn of nuns. OPs, CBs and Marist brothers in our populations was so high. A fifth column without doubt.
I retract the seat I’d given the Greens in West Vic. Now ALP.
I basically concur with AKP except SM where I will check again.
Morwell continues to get my eye
The VEC (and ABC) computer continues to split between LIB/ALP
The National is miles ahead of the Liberal & the anti-ALP IND Proctor
Even with Proctors prefs to the LIB I can’t see them passing the NAT under any equation
Add to that a probably understated 65% pref flow on from the Lib/Ind/FF to the NAT, this should be a clear NAT lead by 1500-2000 votes imho
For someone with complete ignorance about the new structure of the Victorian Upper House – how many seats does one party need for an overall majority?
Evan, the answer is 21 (there being 40 seats in the new-look chamber, down from 44). Labor might just get there.
Bort
I think the VEC selects in advance the two most likely remaining candidates for the 2CP. Their numbers may be jumbled by the good performance of the Nats. Certainly it’s hard to see the ALP winning Morwell with that primary vote, unless they get prefs from FF or the independent Labor guy.
Just in from the suburbs, and some upper house observations on a sample of one booth in Eastern Metro:
– only about 4% of the total vote was below the line. About half of this came in the form of people voting 1-2-3-4-5 for the ticket of either ALP or Liberal – presumably these will exhaust. Greens had more below the line (as usual), but still only about 18% of their total vote.
– Very little evidence of people going below the line to go around a party ticket.
As far as pre-polls are concerned, the demographics of pre-poll and postal voters are different at this time of year to what they are in most elections because it’s university holidays (and Schoolies), but not school holidays. In 2002 the Greens did very well (and Labor better than usual) on these, and I’d expect the same in 2006.
From Kilsyth primaries it looks to me that the Libs should be ahead (43.3 + 6.7 from FF), unless this is one of the seats in which FF are not preferencing the Libs.
The Family Fist vote is higher than usual here because of the donkey vote. Assuming a third will vote straight down the ticket and Grns prefs are tight towards the ALP it’s safe for the Bearded Dymphna – which is how the the TPP VEC tally calls it.
Even if the ALP does lose Kilsyth it will be a bitter Monday morning for the Tories. Remember when Mexico was the jool in their crown.
Or to it put another way as the Pom soccer crowds might chant to the tune of Amazing Grace “Twenty Nil, Twenty Nil, Twenty Nil….” and so on ad nauseum referring of course to the pathetic Tory record in state elections (which matter not one whit anywho… )
Bort, if I understand your point correctly (and if I don’t, my own lack of clarity is to blame rather than yours): there is no doubt that the Nationals will finish ahead of the Liberals in Morwell, and win the seat if Labor does not. The thing is, electoral commissions have to decide before the count which two parties they are going to follow in the provisional preference count, and the VEC assumed Morwell would be a Labor versus Liberal contest. But they were wrong, as they usually are in one or two seats each election.
Well, they do have a Queensland Senator in Barnaby, Darryl, so perhaps they’re on the comeback trail…
In other words, what Marcus said.
William, thank you for the answer!
If the ALP has majorities in both houses again – another stellar triumph for Bracks!
According to the VEC site: Labor has 100 vote leads in Kilsyth, Mt Waverley and Ferntree Gully(2 PP that is).
Forrest Hills – looking safer for Kirstie Marshall.
South Metro: Green + Dem + PP is 1.1 quotas, so they look kinda safe with 56% counted.
DLP with a seat?
Well, they do have a Queensland Senator in Barnaby
Actually I thought he was Albert Field come back to haunt us all.
West Metro: I get
ALP 3.54, Lib 1.48, FF+DLP 0.29, Dem+Grn+PP 0.69
After Libs get the votes from FF, Greens get the votes from the 4th Labor to take the last seat. Am I missing something?
If the ALP has majorities in both houses again – another stellar triumph for Bracks!
It certainly is. How come there aren’t more ALP tragics rubbing the Tory noses in it – or are they all over at Tim Blairs?
Ah, I see PP have the Greens last in West Metro!
How come there aren’t more ALP tragics rubbing the Tory noses in it..?
Stevie told them all to go to bed coz they gotta start work tomorrow.
At 64% of the upper-house counted looking at the party state-eise percentages teh Liberal party did badly
ALP 42.6% Close to the newspoll.
Liberal 33.91 two to three percent below the polls.
Greens 10.10 two percent below Morgan and about right for Newspoll.
Nationals 4.95% one percent above the newspoll figurs or 4% showing that the 2002 LIB/NP slit used by Antony Green was way out.
FAMILY FIRST 3.87% above my estimate of 3% but still not enough t win a position.
DLP 1.89 % down 0.5% from teh senate vote
DEMOCRATS were the biggest loser down form 2.5% in the senate to 0.75%
PEOPLE POWER about what we expected just below 1%. I gave them the benefit of doubt in most of my analysis and they did not come up the middle as much as Mayne claims
The rest did not come close to the 0.5% .
The biggest surprise which we need to keep an eye on is Northern Metro where the DLP has a real chance.. Much will depend on below the line and Postals Votes – Statistical Information on Postal votes. MR TULLY and the VBEc had promised to provide information on teh nukmber of ballot papers issued but when we asked where was it MR TULLY refused to make it available WHY? It should have been available on teh VEC web site. We were orginally told it would be available but it was not. As it stands we do not know how many postal votes have been issued and there could be a surprised bundel of 50 votes that has been unaccounted for. Information is missing. We kept asking the VEC but they were not able or willing to provide this information. (This information was made available in past elections but not this time.)
Prehaps much of the VEC problems lie with our concern that the VEC had pre-counted the electronic votes before the close of the poll (See email from Glenda Frazer) This raises some concerns about legality and when questioned Mr Tully ducked for cover and became abusive as he sort to deny that the votes had been counted., More questions then answers.
Anyway apart form the VEC poor management and poor web site the result has overall been good. Congratulations Steve Brack and the ALP team. Keep on providing good governance. With John Howard in absolute control we need a Labor Government to provide the required checks and balances.
One of the best calls on the night was from Bill Shorten who early in the night called the outcome.
DLP with a seat?
Don’t forget Nino Randazzo in the Italian Senate.
Thats about right around 95% of all votes are above the line. the same in most elections of late. 85% to 95% Still do not know the exact figure of Postals not sure if the VEC knows either – They were consistently finding excuses not to make the information available. Strange really.. Hopefully there will be a review as there is a lot that can and should be fixed.
East Metro is very close, but not quite there for the Greens on the latest figures, and South Metro might have them ahead now for the last spot too. It seems that as time goes on the results get closer to the ABC predictions which previously seemed a bit strange compared with the VEC figures – do they factor in booth data perhaps? Definitely Greens are improving, though the last time I looked Western Vic wasn’t likely.
With about 250,000 votes counted in each Region, the cut-up shows that the Greens can be confident only about SMET and surprisingly EVIC. NMET, where they have about 0.89 of a quota, they loose out to the DLP, who have done a Glen Druery and got preferences from all over the shop, on top of 0.3 of a quota. EVIC must be regarded as dodgy, a lot will depend on the Nats vote.
Yes thanks for the clarification – to my untrained eye I can not see Morwell as being anything but a National gain, with a relatively sound margin of victory – would be nice if the powers to be did something about it 🙂
As for Kilsyth – the ABC projection is using the exact same numbers as the VEC numbers which has the ALP in front by 150 and has Libs ahead by 0.5 prediction winning on postals
Can see the Libs picking up Kilsyth, Mount Waverley & Gembrook on the postals. Forest Hill I think they’ll fall a bit short 200 or so votes and that will become the ALP’s most marginal held seat
So would mean
Lib gains (8)
Evelyn
Hastings
Gembrook
Kilsyth
FTG
Mount Waverley
Bayswater
Narracan
Nat gains (2)
Morwell
Mildura
ALP 53
LIB/NAT 34 (LIB 25 – NAT 9)
IND 1
ALP majority of 18 and 9 seat pickup in 2010 for a hung parliament
Which would’ve been at the higher end of most predictions and not a bad lib/Nat outcome considering the fact that the Liberals primary vote did not move
My estimates are below:
ALP 20
LIB 16
NAT 3
DLP 1
ie DLP balance of Power.
However I think the Greens may take a seat off the Libs in South Metro.
ALP majority of 18 and 9 seat pickup in 2010 for a hung parliament
Smoker.
South Metro: Green + Dem + PP = 1.13 quotas, 64% counted. Looks safe.
I notice PP give pref to the Dems, then the first 2 Labor, then the Greens.
UPATE AT 61.5% of the vote counted (ABTL) The Greens have increased there vote falling above the line in what was earlier looking at being a close race between the DLP and the Greens. IO now call the Seat for the Greens but it will very much depend on preferences and not the as first expected primary based quota.
A shame but the brief shining moment of contemplating DLP victory was amusing enough.
IO now call the Seat for the Greens but it will very much depend on preferences and not the as first expected primary based quota.
Well that’s a relief. Judging by the increasing no of typos in your posts you should go to bed now after drinking a least 500ml water. That will avoid you becoming dehydrated overnight and ease the hangover.
I realise that Mex Upper House elections used to be foregione conclusions and clearly you have never suffered through the horrible waiting for the result in the Upper House as we have in NSW. It’s not worth prognosticating on election night. By pref distro 13 we should have a fair idea.