10.55pm. I take it there will be no more updates from the ABC. My final thought for the time being is that this could be yet another cruel result for the Greens, who cannot be certainly of winning anything. The count for Melbourne has progressed a little further on the VEC site, and the 2PP count has Bronwyn Pike 1.9 per cent ahead, suggesting she is home and hosed. As for the upper house, at best they could get up in North Metro, East Metro and South Metro, but these seats are respectively at risk from the DLP, the Liberals and Labor. In fact, my own tip would be that they will only emerge with North Metro.
10.29pm. Slightly drunken note-taking from Antony Green’s call of the upper house board. Kerry O’Brien says “Labor strategists” believe Labor might win 20 or 21 seats and the Greens might not win anything. But on current information, the scoreboard reads: EAST VIC : 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Nationals. NORTH VIC: Labor 2, Liberal 2, Nationals 1. WEST VIC: 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. EAST METRO: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens. Antony says, “strong chance of 3 Liberal, 2 Labor”. NORTH METRO: 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. Antony didn’t mention the prospect of a DLP win. SOUTH-EAST METRO: 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. SOUTHERN METRO: 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. But Antony tips that the Liberals will overtake the Greens. WEST METRO: 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. I personally was not expecting the Greens to win a seat here. Antony says there is a “chance” of a fourth Labor seat at the Greens’ expense, which is what I had predicted.
10.21pm. Labor won Bellarine quite easily, slightly contrary to my expectations. The Libs won Benambra quite comfortably after an early fright. Swing against Labor of 8 per cent in Bendigo East, but Labor up-and-comer Jacinta Allan still wins quite easily. Somewhat smaller swing of 5 per cent in Bendigo West. Good win for Labor in Bentleigh. Greens vote slightly up in Brunswick, so they still ran second, but not enough to trouble Labor. Inadequate swing against Labor of 1.4 per cent in Burwood. Steve Herbert might even pick up a swing in Eltham, making me look like a dill because I tipped him to lose. Evelyn one of my few calls for a Liberal gain which have come good. Liberal still ahead by 0.3 per cent in Ferntree Gully. Small swing to Liberal in Frankston, but nowhere near enough. Gembrook still very close. Not much trouble for Craig Ingram in Gippsland East. Liberals should get over the line to gain Hastings. Family First has somehow scored 12.6 per cent in the Labor stronghold of Kororoit. Bronwyn Pike’s primary vote in Melbourne is 46.3 per cent, which you’d think would be enough. Labor just ahead in Morwell; I don’t think much has changed in the lower house count for a while. Antony says there has been ‘a lot of slow counts’. Mount Waverley in doubt, but I would expect Greens preferences to get Labor over the line. The big surprise for me (and indeed for John Brumby) is the clear Labor defeat in Narracan. Labor did it easy in Northcote over the Greens. The Libs won the primary vote in Prahran, but the Greens were on 19.7 and Labor are home. Disappointing result for the Greens in Richmond, with the Labor vote up to 48.3 per cent. Nothing became of the Liberal threat to the Nationals in Shepparton, or the Liberal threat to Labor in South Barwon. Denis Napthine did it quite easily in South West Coast.
10.20pm. Still only 53.5 per cent counted in Melbourne, but the tide is unmistakably towards Labor.
10.01pm. Anthony van der Craats, who was a lone voice in his apparently correct call that Labor would hold Melbourne earlier in the evening, still thinks the DLP are looking good for a seat in Northern Metropolitan.
9.49pm. Antony Green doing the call of the board – always my favourite bit. Will take notes as it goes and pump them out in a minute.
9.48pm. I’ve now drunk that one beer too many, but from what I can gather of what Antony Green just said, his guess for the upper house is Labor 19, Liberal 13, Nationals 3, Greens 4, People Power 1. I would be surprised if one Greens seat and the People Power did not fall away in later counting.
9.38pm. I suspect currently in-doubt lower house seats are likely to remain so for this evening. Will continue to follow the upper house count.
9.28pm. The ABC projection still has People Power’s Gabriela Byrne on track to win a seat in Eastern Victoria. But we’re talking about 32,854 votes here, scarcely 10 per cent of the total. Their vote is on 3 per cent – I suggest that this is from rural booths and will come down when the big centres come in.
9.27pm. Steve Bracks delivering his victory speech.
9.25pm. The ABC computer has Labor’s lead over the Greens in Melbourne down from 0.7 per cent to 0.2 per cent, but this is a contest where the computer is of less use as a guide than usual. The Liberal lead in Ferntree Gully has narrowed sharply, from 1.1 per cent to 0.3 per cent. Little change in Gembrook, where Labor holds a very fine lead.
9.17pm. Just having a look at Antony’s upper house projections – it appears that these are based on the actual upper house count, which is at a very early stage. At the moment: NORTH VIC, 2 Labor; 2 Liberal; 1 Nationals. EAST VIC, 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 People Power. WEST VIC, 2 Labor, 2 Liberals, 1 Nationals. NORTH METRO, 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. EAST METRO, 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. SOUTH METRO, 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Greens. WEST METRO, 3 Labor, 1 Liberal, 1 Greens. SOUTH-EAST METRO. 3 Labor, 2 Liberal. A couple of Greens wins there that would surprise me.
9.10pm. Similarly, Hastings is still down as doubtful on the ABC site, but the Liberals’ 1.2 per cent lead will be hard to reel in.
9.09pm. Labor 1.1 per cent ahead in Forest Hill, which you’d think would be enough.
9.08pm. The ABC computer now has Labor ahead in Melbourne, by 0.7 per cent.
9.07pm. I earlier said the Liberals had fallen behind in Ferntree Gully, but I may have read it wrong – they are 1.1 per cent ahead, not behind. No change in Gembrook, Labor still 0.3 per cent ahead. Labor has hit the lead in Mount Waverley – behind 0.1 per cent last I checked, they now lead by 0.3 per cent, and the trend seems to be heading in their direction. Labor 0.5 per cent ahead in Kilsyth.
9.06pm. Baillieu boasts of a “very significant swing against the government, of around 2 per cent”. Ptuh.
9.03pm. Ted Baillieu conceding defeat. Has he done enough?
9.00pm. Antony Green has just dropped into comments to alert us to the ABC’s upper house results.
8.58pm. Another addition to the ABC doubtfuls list is Melbourne, which has gone from Greens gain to Greens ahead – possible props to Anthony van der Craats, who appeared out on a limb earlier with his talk of a Labor win.
8.57pm. Labor’s lead in Prahran has fallen, such that the ABC computer has switched it from Labor retain to Labor ahead.
8.55pm. Results like the high CEC vote in Broadmeadows make it harder to extrapolate the upper house outcome than I would have thought. A DLP upset is not out of the question, but a Greens win is more likely.
8.53pm. Still a very low count in Melbourne – and as Antony Green points out, we are less experienced at reading Labor versus Greens swings than Labor versus Liberal swings. The margin has narrowed considerably and Bronwyn Pike is not gone yet. John Brumby says his scrutineers paint a different picture from Antony’s projections and they are a strong chance.
8.52pm. 4.5 per cent for the Citizens Electoral Council in Broadmeadows.
8.47pm. On the lower house vote, the results in the Northern Metropolitan upper house region are about 55.7 per cent Labor, 21.8 per cent Liberal, 15.3 per cent Greens. I’m about to have a play with those figures at the Upperhouse.info calculator.
8.40pm. Click here if you want early upper house figures. If you can make any sense of them, drop me a line.
8.38pm. The Liberals have fallen behind in Ferntree Gully and Gembrook – they formerly lead by 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent, and now trail 0.7 per cent and 0.5 per cent. Their lead in Mount Waverley has narrowed from 0.3 per cent to 0.1 per cent.
8.34pm. Jessica in comments asks for details on South Barwon. The Liberals have picked up a disappointing 2.8 per cent swing and will not win the seat. Returned member Michael Crutchfield has just appeared on ABC TV, vowing swift vengeance upon his enemies.
8.33pm. Yes, the Nationals contested 17 last time and 20 this time.
8.32pm. Aggregate Nationals vote up from 4.3 per cent to 5.8 per cent, although they may have contested more this time.
8.25pm. Kilsyth looking interesting: Liberals ahead on the primary vote; Family First have done almost as well as the Greens on the primary vote, so they won’t close the gap on preferences as easily as they’re used to.
8.25pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in Morwell. So it would appear that the booths in towns like Traralgon have behaved very differently from the rural booths, and may be on their way to saving Brendan Jenkins.
8.23pm. Antony Green reckons Labor looks “pretty good” in Hastings, but that sounded like an overstatement at first – I now realise he meant only that they’re doing well to be in the hunt.
8.21pm. The ABC computer has downgraded Morwell from Liberal gain (which is wrong, because the Nationals are far ahead of them) to Liberal ahead; Forest Hill is now Labor ahead rather than Labor retain.
8.14pm. Self-flagellation time (because it’s all about me, you see). I was clearly wrong about Mildura (a Nationals gain), South Barwon and Eltham (retained by Labor), South West Coast (retained by Liberal), Morwell (won by the Nationals, although the ABC site says Liberals – presumably because it factored in a Labor versus Liberal two-party contest) and Rodney (which I said the Liberals would win from the Nationals, though I qualified it by saying it dependend on the Labor how-to-vote card, which I don’t know about). I picked the Liberals to win Ferntree Gully, Gembrook and Mount Waverley, but they are very slightly behind in each -by 0.1 per cent, 0.3 per cent and 0.3 per cent.
8.12pm. The raw figures in Melbourne look all right for Labor, but it’s obviously the apartment blocks that are coming in first because Antony’s swing calculation is 10.6 per cent to the Greens.
8.10pm. Labor “ahead” in Ferntree Gully – by 0.1 per cent.
8.09pm. Both Brunswick and Northcote are now down as Labor retain on the ABC site, so the Greens have not pulled rabbits out of the hat there.
8.07pm. Despite the apparent win in Melbourne, the Greens do not seem to be doing quite as well as expected on some measures. I was told to expect that they would run second in Albert Park, but that’s not the case at the moment. Still too early to say anything about the upper house.
8.05pm. Richmond still down as doubtful on the ABC computer, but my own information is that Labor should win.
8.04pm. Primary vote totals with about a third counted have Labor on about 42 per cent, Coalition 40 per cent, Greens 9 per cent, Family First 4 per cent – roughly what the polls said, except Greens slightly lower and Family First higher.
8.03pm. ABC computer now has Bayswater as a Liberal gain.
7.59pm. Family First polling very well, in the 4 per cent ballpark. Preferences should prohibit them from winning an upper house seat.
7.58pm. John Brumby says Narracan is “a serious problem for us”. He is surprised, and so am I. The ABC has it as Liberal gain, which I hadn’t noticed before. ABC also has Morwell down as a gain for the Nationals, meaning they have picked up from seven to nine and might even retain party status.
7.56pm. Looks like Russell Savage really has lost Mildura to the Nationals, who actually look poised to increase their number of seats, in the lower house at least.
7.55pm. ABC has changed Benambra from Liberal ahead to Liberal retain.
7.54pm. Lineball in Mount Waverley – both margin and swing are 2.3 per cent.
7.54pm. ABC TV says only a small Liberal swing in Frankston (margin a bit over 5 per cent), at which the Libs were throwing money like it was going out of fashion.
7.53pm. Labor looking good in Bentleigh but likely to lose Bayswater.
7.48pm. Antony has helpfully extrapolated total results for the upper house regions – the Greens are higher than I figured in South Metro and lower in North Metro, possibly even low enough in the latter to not win the seat. But this could be distorted – for example, the Docklands booth is in but a lot of the Fitzroy/Collingwood booths are not.
7.47pm. Labor reportedly untroubled in Prahran.
7.44pm. Still can’t find complete results from the ABC site, but the doubtful seats include Ferntree Gully, Hastings, Kilsyth and Mount Waverley (Liberal leading), and Gembrook (Labor leading). Also in the mix are the Liberal seats of Benambra and Box Hill.
7.43pm. Labor at least holding their ground in the similarly marginal Eltham, which I had picked as a Liberal gain.
7.41pm. Labor holding their ground in Mordialloc, which required a swing of about 4 per cent to lose.
7.38pm. ABC computer calling Melbourne for the Greens.
7.37pm. Liberals look to have retained South West Coast, contrary to my quirky prediction. Still a lot of talk about Morwell, which could go to the Nationals.
7.36pm. Looking like a big swing against Labor in their very marginal seat of Kilsyth.
7.33pm. To those alarmed by the alleged Family First gain in Caulfield, Antony has confirmed it is a computer error.
7.33pm. Is it my imagination, or have the seat-by-seat results on the ABC site disappeared? Someone give me a link if they can help.
7.31pm. Fairly solid swing to the Libs in Gembrook, which they should gain.
7.28pm. Antony says an overall swing against Labor of 3 per cent, slightly at the lower end of market expectations. Bit over 10 per cent counted.
7.27pm. Antony’s computer has Evelyn as a Liberal gain.
7.26pm. According to Ian in comments, Jenny Macklin says it’s looking very good for Labor in Richmond.
7.25pm. More encouraging for Labor in Richmond – the Greens vote is down 5.5 per cent in the Richmond South booth, worth about 2 per cent of the total.
7.24pm. Hotham Hill booth in Melbourne, worth about 4 per cent of the total, also showing strong enough results for the Greens to win them the seat.
7.20pm. Bit more than 10 per cent counted in Forest Hill – Libs ahead on raw figures, but Antony calculates an inadequate 3.7 per cent swing. The margin is a bit over 5 per cent.
7.20pm. Antony Green pretty much calling the election for Labor.
7.19pm. Ian in comments says Russell Savage has conceded Mildura, suggesting it might not be such a bad night for the Nationals after all. I would have held off a bit longer if I were Russell.
7.18pm. Antony’s computer calling Rodney for the Nationals – this was the one seat where Labor was directing preferences against them, unless I’m much mistaken.
7.16pm. ABC looking at Benambra, tipped by some as a possible upset Labor win. There is in fact a swing to the Liberals. No chance of Bill Baxter winning the seat for the Nationals.
7.16pm. Early results in South Barwon show a smaller swing against Labor than I anticipated.
7.13pm. Big swing to the Liberals in Caulfield, where they seemed to be campaigning harder than they needed to be. At least that’s what Antony Green says – Robert Doyle says he hears the opposite. My money’s on Antony.
7.12pm. The large-ish Docklands booth in Melbourne is in, but it’s new and can’t be compared with an old result. Liberal 39.5, Labor 35.1, Greens 23.0 – remembering this is a very different area from the rest of the seat.
7.10pm. Uneven results in Mount Waverley – small swing to Labor in a smallish booth, big swing to Liberal in a bigger one.
7.07pm. Similar swing in the similarly marginal Kilsyth, off slightly fewer votes.
7.05pm. One booth in from Ferntree Gully (worth 1.6 per cent); Antony calculates the swing at 2.3 per cent, making it very close.
7.05pm. A quite large booth in Hastings has Family First on an impressive 6.6 per cent; Labor down 1.1 per cent, Liberals down 4.4 per cent, Greens down 2.5 per cent.
7.03pm. First booth in from Bayswater looks promising for the Liberals.
7.00pm. John Brumby sounding slightly more optimistic about Evelyn than I indicated.
6.58pm. Big early swing to Ted Baillieu in Hawthorn.
6.58pm. 4.7 per cent counted in Evelyn, 3.2 per cent swing to the Liberals – enough to win them the seat.
6.58pm. And now Savage says “the trends are” that he will lose.
6.57pm. Still early days, but indications Russell Savage is far from home and hosed in Mildura.
6.56pm. 3 per cent counted in Macedon, Labor holding firm.
6.55pm. Narracan up to 4.0 per cent counted, almost enough to be interesting, shows a 10 per cent swings to the Liberals – but these would be regional booths, with Labor’s strong area of Moe still to come.
6.54pm. John Brumby also notes strong Greens performance in Mount Waverley.
6.53pm. First booth in from Melbourne, worth about 200 votes, has Labor down 6.5 per cent and the Greens up 2.2 per cent, confirming that Bronwyn Pike is in trouble.
6.50pm. Less than 2 per cent counted in Ripon, swing to the Liberals just under 2 per cent.
6.43pm. By my reckoning the first booth in Mount Waverley has Labor steady on the primary vote and as much as 4 per cent on two-party. But we’re talking about 1 per cent of the vote here.
6.41pm. Ditto John Brumby’s call of a fall in the Liberal primary vote.
6.41pm. Robert Doyle speaking of early results flowing against Russell Savage, sounding a little too cocky a little too early for my money.
6.40pm. Very early Seymour results (1.0 per cent), Antony’s computer calls a 6.2 per cent swing to Labor. There are three booths here.
6.39pm. 0.9 per cent counted in Mildura. Obviously a strong Nationals booth – they strongly lead independent member Russell Savage, who I do not expect to be troubled.
6.39pm. Don’t listen to me – Antony Green’s computer shows a swing to the Nats. The figures are much too small to be meaningful.
6.36pm. Very early, very small number of votes in Lowan (one of the few safe Nationals seats) suggest a drop in the Nationals vote.
6.30pm. Votes are in from the Mount Buller booth in Benalla – all 28 of them. Just thought I’d mention it.
6.28pm. Seven booths allegedly in from quite a few places – obviously a test of some sort. Looking like the VEC site will not be providing booth results, unless I’m missing something.
6.16pm. Front page of the VEC results page says seven booths are in from Scoresby and Bayswater, which sounds a bit unlikely. In any case, no results are up.
6.02pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s Victorian election night coverage, live from the salubrious Richmond Hill Hotel (three stars, budget rooms from $45 a night). Polls are now closed, and the very first results should be online in about half an hour.
It all depend on who you see as a minor party
As of the close of polling last night I have the Greens winning four seats in teh upper-house. Each seat is close and will depend on preferences, postals and absentees. The Greens did not do as well as we first thought but they are above the crucial 9.5% thresh-hold. Southern and Northern are their strongest seat. The DLP was on the lead in early results but as the bigger booths cam on line their position diminished with teh Greens creeping over the line on Democrat and People First preferences.
This is the same situition in Southern Metro (Where the Libs are the challenger). Western Metro (Libs and ALP challengers). South Eastern is ALP 3 Lib 2 thanks to Liberal preferences. Eastern Metro is a clsoe clall between the Liberals and Greens. in rural Victoria North and East Victoria are ALP 2 Lib 2 NP 1. In western Victoria it is line ball but with teh late swing to labor in the last week looks like the ALP will win 3 and the Liberals 2. Should the Alp fall back on postals (Again we have no idea how many postal votes were issued as the Chief Commissioner refused to provide this important information. Why I fail to understand but he will be held accountable. Could have something to do with the fact that I have expressed concern about the VEC accessing the results of the electronic voting data before the close of the poll and without any scrutineers present) and absentee and pre-poll votes. e-centre votes do not apear to be segregated in the same way as pre-poll, postals and absentee is – another concern) I number of people have contacted me with concerns about the Cheif Commissoner. At first I dismissed their concerns as I thought the VEC was now beginning to open up and become more transparent. Now I have to admit I am begining to see what was behind their concerns I somehow think he may be in the job for much longer given the extent and number of complaint I am already aware of… In the end it is a decision of the elected parliament as it if they will address the growing number of concerns and complaints. Try talking to Save Our Suburbs..
More on my blog… click on my name.
I’ve looked at the results at the close of voting in the VEC tallyroom and factor in say an average of 0.5% extra to the Liberal-Nationals in postal votes. The Liberala have picked up 6 or 7 seats and the Nationals 1 or 2 in the Lower House.
I have not seen the upper house results to determine what the exact makeup of that house will be.
Come the federal election I am predicting a better than average result for Family First (they could poll 4% nationwide) and a static Green vote.
AKP I am just reporting the results of my database` which process the votes tally according to the ticket votes. At teh close of counting last night that was the result. see the graphs my blog for a better pitcure. William if you want you are welcome to republish the graphs. If and when we can get hold of the details; below the preference data for below-the-line we will keep. But I think Mr Tully is not about ensuring our electronic elections are open and Transparent and subject to independent analysis and scrutiny. We will have to FOI the VEC I think to get this data. An abuse of the system but I am looking forward to having the VEC give evidence in a repeat of my case against the AEC.
We will also be appealing to the parliament to tighten up the laws and proceeds to ensure that the Commissioner makes our elections open and transparent and information readily available on the internet. This is a fundamental principle and an issue of growing concern not just in Australia but also overseas. The commissioners credibility is also on the line. he has already raised concerns as a result of his refusal to provide statistical information on the number of postal votes issued. Postal vote applications closed Thursday and given they are processed of an electronic voters roll there is not reason why the information has been withheld.
I’m 90% confident that the Libs will pickup 8 (Evelyn, Hastings, Gembrook, Kilsyth, Ferntree Gully, Mount Waverley, Bayswater, Narracan) and Nat 2 (Morwell, Mildura) at the end of voting
ALP to hold Forest Hill by 200-250
Final
ALP 53 (-9)
Lib 25 (+8)
Nat 9 (+2)
Ind 1 (-1)
Any challenges to the election are first referred to the Melbourne Magistrates court sitting as an electoral tribunal with th right of appeal to VCAT.
VCAT also hears FOI application appeal. I previous took the City of Melbourne and the AEC to VCAT to gain access to detailed preference data and won decisively without the need for the member to reserve his discision. Election statistical and preference data is a public document and available to any member of the pubic and so it should be. If we are to maintain public confidence in our electoral system it must be open and transparent. Even more so when elections are conducted in cyberspace by computers. Tully has already demonstrated he is not about maintaining open and transparent elections. I am very interested in reports about the VEC accessing e-voting data orior to the close of the poll in the absence of scrutineers.
I would contest the assumption that Liberals inevitably do better in postals (which is itself a misnomer – absentees are the biggest element of the “late” count). I’d argue that postals and absentees tend to go with the incumbent, as they have better resources to do a postal campaign, and have at least some recognition away from their home turf.
I would therefore think that Labor is very likely to hold Gembrook. I’m surprised by to-day’s figures for Kilsyth. There have been more than 4,500 votes beyond the booth count, and that’s before absentees arrive, and with some postals still to be received, let alone counted. However, the ground that the Liberals have made up, now makes them the favourite. As Labour is slightly behind in Ferntree Gully and Mount Waverley, they should be regarded as Liberal-leaning doubtfuls.
There is no prospect of the Liberals winning Forest Hill – the margin’s too great.
So my estimate is ALP 54 Lib 24 National 9 Independent 1.
That assumes Liberal wins in Morwell, Kilsyth, Ferntree Gully and Mount Waverley (the last three definitely still in play) and a Labor hold in Gembrook.
Peter both Labor and Liberals always fo better with postals then the minor parties. They are the ones that organise the postal votes in most cicumstances. You look back over past elections and you will see. I recall when the Liberal Party use to out do Labor two to one on postals. You can rest assured that the Greens will not go up as postals and abentee votes come in. The same was the case in the 2004 Senate vote. Risstrom was hoping to pick up on postals and absentee but he didn’t. It takes a lot of votes to make up 0.7% anything over 100 votes in the lower house or 600 votes in the upper-house will be virtually impossible to bridge
STOP: Updated analysis shows that it bis possible for the DLP to win the fifth spot in Western Victoria as previously thought. Much of it depends on the below the line results. We understand that the VEC will not be releasing in a timely fashion the below the line preference data. Without this information it is impossible to independently verify or scrutinise the results of the electronic count. further bring the conduct of the election into disrepute. This information is a public document and is obtainable under FOI and should be published. The decision of the Chief Commission to with-hold this information would be an abuse of process and prevents an open and transparent conduct of the election with is fundamental to good governance..
William call me for an update..
Correction our assement was based on 85 to 90% of teh 7000 going to southwick We now think that the split will be more like 5000 (LIB) to 2000 (ALP) Thornley will be elected on democrat votes