UPDATE: A seat I had initially overlooked in the summary below, Morwell, has undergone a very interesting turn in late counting. Where the ABC’s end of night figure had Labor 2.2 per cent ahead, the current VEC figure has them 2.4 per cent behind. Unless I am mistaken, this is because a notional Labor versus Liberal two-party count was conducted last night when in fact it was that Nationals that came second; a Labor versus Nationals count was conducted today, and the Nationals did considerably better on preferences than the Liberals. With Morwell, Mildura and three upper house seats in the bag, the strength of the Nationals’ performance has possibly been the election’s biggest surprise.
A quick whiz through noteworthy seats in the short time available before my internet allocation expires. A similar effort for the upper house will hopefully follow later today.
Bayswater (Labor 2.8%): Clear Liberal win with a 5.7 per cent swing.
Bentleigh (Labor 4.8%): Outstanding result for Labor member Rob Hudson, who picked up a 2.4 per cent swing.
Eltham (Labor 4.8%): Contrary to the Poll Bludger’s prediction, Steve Herbert picked up a 1.9 per cent swing and won easily.
Evelyn (Labor 0.3%): Liberal Christine Fyffe, who lost her seat in 2002, returns to parliament after picking up a 3.1 per cent swing.
Ferntree Gully (Labor 2.3%): At the end of last night, the Liberals led by 0.3 per cent; the latest figures have it at just 0.1 per cent, or 75 votes.
Gembrook (Labor 1.6%): Labor’s Tammy Lobato doggedly holding on to a narrow lead, which has widened fractionally from 0.3 per cent to 0.4 per cent (251 votes).
Hastings (Labor 0.9%): A Liberal gain with a 2.5 per cent swing.
Kilsyth (Labor 2.1%): Still very much in doubt, with the Liberal candidate leading by 0.2 per cent (139 votes).
Melbourne (Labor 1.9% versus Greens): I believe the ABC computer’s early prediction of a clear Greens win here last night was due to the fact that it was unable to account for the influence of new voters in the Docklands; older booths that came in first swung to the Greens, and the projection was extrapolated from these swings (UPDATE: A more considered analysis from Anthony van der Craats in comments). Now that the dust has settled, Bronwyn Pike has in fact picked up a 0.5 per cent swing and is well and truly out of the woods.
Mildura (Independent 18.5% versus Nationals): Russell Savage’s vote fell from 52.1 per cent to 34.2 per cent; Nationals up from 25.3 per cent to 40.3 per cent; Liberals up from 10.0 per cent to 11.5 per cent; Labor down from 9.2 per cent to 6.5 per cent. Nationals win by 6.1 per cent on two-candidate preferred.
Mount Waverley (Labor 2.3%): This seems to have swung the Liberals’ way in recent counting – after narrowly trailing late in the evening, they now lead by 0.2 per cent (104 votes).
Narracan (Labor 6.8%): A clear and unexpected win to the Liberals following an unheralded revolt against Labor in Gippsland, perhaps due to water issues. Liberal candidate Gary Blackwood leads by 1.8 per cent on two-party.
Prahran (Labor 4.4%): The ABC computer shifted this back into the doubtful column at one point fairly late in the count, but current figures indicate there has been no swing at all.
Richmond (Labor 3.1% versus Greens): Richard Wynne has widened his margin over the Greens to 6.4 per cent.
Rodney (Nationals 10.0% versus Liberal): Labor preferences helped deliver the Liberals a 5.9 per cent swing, but not enough to cost Paul Weller the seat.