The division of Rumney is based around Storm Bay about 25 kilometres east of Hobart and includes Sorell, Richmond and Port Arthur. It was won for Labor upon its creation in 1999 by Lin Thorp, who did exceptionally well to defeat incumbent Steve Wilson, member for the abolished division of Monmouth from 1980. Although he sat as an independent, Wilson went on to contest the lower house division of Lyons as a Liberal at the 2002 state election, but scored only 3.7 per cent to finish fourth out of the five candidates on the Liberal ticket. Thorp outpolled Wilson by 45.7 per cent to 44.9 per cent on the primary vote and emerged just 65 votes (0.2 per cent) ahead after preferences. Peter Tucker, one-time Tasmanian Liberal staffer and currently a PhD candidate at the University of Tasmania, informs the Poll Bludger that Thorp has built a high profile in her electorate, appearing at "every sausage sizzle and school fete going".
Given that Thorp was able to win the seat under much less favourable circumstances in 1999, she would have to be the favourite to win given the apparent lack of disaffection with the Lennon government. The most fancied of her three opponents is Carmel Torenius, the mayor of Sorrell. Torenius ran on the Liberal ticket for Lyons at the 1998 state election and polled an uninspiring 2.9 per cent, although her profile would have improved since. Also in the field are Greens candidate Glenn Millar, a former staffer for Christine Milne who has been campaigning against Walker Corporation’s Ralph’s Bay canal estate proposal (also opposed by Thorp), and Clarence City Council alderman David Traynor. Traynor is a former ALP member who was the party’s candidate for Monmouth in 1993, and was also on their lower house ticket for Franklin in 1992. The 25.8 per cent he recorded on the former occasion was considerably inferior to Thorp’s performance in 1999, although Thorp benefited from greater organisational support from her party which by that time was fancying its chances of an eventual Council majority. At the very least Traynor has the potential to serve as an irritant by splitting the Labor vote.
The division of Murchison is the state’s largest, covering the north-western corner of the state including Burnie west of Shorewell Creek (accounting for roughly a quarter of the town’s population) and the entirety of the state’s west coast. Its population centres include logging towns that swung savagely against Labor at the federal election, delivering the corresponding electorate of Braddon to the Liberals with a 7.1 per cent swing. As the mayor of Burnie, Alvwyn Boyd has the highest profile out of the five candidates but most of his municipality is located in the neighbouring division of Montgomery. He also began his run late, coming forward on the day nominations closed. Last year Boyd suggested he would not seek to remain mayor beyond October, but he is apparently reconsidering this while promising to see out his current term as mayor without pay if elected to parliament. The other candidates are Kevin Hyland, self-employed truck driver and deputy mayor of Waratah-Wynyard; John Oldaker, Circular Head councillor, farmer and Vietnam veteran; Ruth Forrest, state president of the Australian College of Midwives; and Scott Jordan of the Greens. Oldaker has been the most vocal opponent of calls for "cultural ownership" of Rocky Cape and Sundown Point to be tranferred to the Aboriginal Land Council of Tasmania, which emerged as an issue after the Legislative Council’s recent surprise decision to allow the transfer of Cape Barren and Clarke islands at the other end of Bass Strait.
