In like Lin

Today’s periodic elections for the Tasmanian Legislative Council produced a handsome win for Labor incumbent Lin Thorp in Rumney and a predictably indecisive outcome in Murchison, where the result will be decided by preferences. At the close of counting, with declaration and absentee votes still to come, Thorp was on 51.0 per cent of the primary vote (up from 45.7 per cent in 1999), with Sorell mayor and independent candidate Carmel Torenius a distant second on 24.6 per cent. The remainder was divided evenly between the Greens’ Glenn Millar and independent David Traynor. Thorp prevailed in all but one of the 24 booths. The surprise of the evening was the poor showing in Murchison from Burnie mayor Alvwyn Boyd in Murchison, who finished fourth out of a field of five candidates with 14.2 per cent. It may be inferred that the benefits of a high profile on council do not extend even slightly beyond the area of the municipality, since only a part of the City of Burnie is located within Murchison, and that prospective candidates in locally focused elections need to campaign hard and early (Boyd did not announce his intention to run until the day nominations closed). The front-runner at the close of counting was Australian College of Midwives president Ruth Forrest with 29.0 per cent, ahead of Kevin Hyland (26.5 per cent) and John Oldaker (21.3 per cent). The gap between Oldaker and Hyland is too wide to be bridged by preferences from the Greens’ Scott Jordan (9.0 per cent), especially given Oldaker’s vocal opposition to land handbacks to the Tasmanian Aboriginal Land Council. Hyland is still an outside chance, but a win for Forrest seems by far the most likely outcome.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.