Category: Western Australian Politics

Armadale and Araluen and Walter Taylor

Time for a new thread. Politics watchers have had pretty big fish to fry recently, but as electoral minutiae are this site’s raison d’etre, here’s a review of looming events which might have escaped your notice. Feel free to discuss what you’d usually discuss in comments.

• Voters in the safe Labor WA state seat of Armadale go to the polls on Saturday to choose a successor to Alannah MacTiernan, following her unsuccessful stab at the federal seat of Canning. I’m wondering if the date might have been chosen so as not to clash with the AFL grand final, and whether events on that front might result in a very low turnout on Saturday. With the Liberals sitting the contest out and no significant minor challengers emerging, the only other point of interest is how the Labor primary vote holds up with talk building of a threat to Eric Ripper’s leadership. Labor’s candidate is Tony Buti, a law professor at the University of Western Australia. Buti heads a ballot paper filled out by Jamie van Burgel of the Christian Democratic Party, independent John D. Tucak (who had extremely limited success as an upper house candidate for Eastern Metropolitan at the 2007 state election) and Owen Davies of the Greens. More from Antony Green.

• On Saturday week, voters in the Alice Springs seat of Araluen will choose a successor to outgoing Country Liberal Party member (and former leader) Jodeen Carney, who on August 19 announced she was retiring for health reasons. A by-election in the Northern Territory offers interesting parallels with the federal situation, as the Labor government has been on a parliamentary knife edge since the 2008 election returned a result of 13 Labor, 11 Country Liberal Party and one independent. The government assumed minority status when its member for Macdonnell, Alison Anderson, quit to sit as an independent in July 2009 – prompting the existing independent, Gerry Wood of the normally conservative electorate of Nelson, to guarantee Labor on confidence and supply in the interests of “stable government” (there was also a brief period in which Arafura MP Marion Scrymgour was on the cross-benches). As a CLP seat, Araluen gives Labor the remote prospect of improving their position, although the 24.6 per cent margin leaves them with little cause for optimism (it should be noted that election results can be hugely variable in the Northern Territory, where bite-sized electorates make candidate factors crucially important). The CLP candidate is Alice Springs deputy mayor Robyn Lambley, described by Ben Langford of the Northern Territory News as a “mediator and dispute resolution expert”. Labor’s candidate is Adam Findlay, a chef with no background in politics to speak of.

• On October 23, a Brisbane City Council by-election will be held in the ward of Walter Taylor, which has been vacated by Jane Prentice, the newly elected LNP member for the federal seat of Ryan. The LNP have nominated a former policy officer for Prentice, Julian Simmonds, who seems unlikely to be troubled given the 21.0 per cent margin from the 2008 election. Labor’s candidate is Louise Foley, who according to Tony Moore of Fairfax has “worked in the Queensland public service during the Beattie Government as a ministerial advisor in local government, planning, transport, education, main roads and with the office of Premier and Cabinet”. Also in the field are Tim Dangerfield of the Greens and independent William Borbasi. Walter Taylor was one of 16 wards won by Liberal in 2008, with 10 being won by Labor. Lord mayor Campbell Newman of the LNP serves a fixed four-year term regardless of the numbers on council.

Newspoll: 57-43 to Liberal-National in WA

The latest quarterly Newspoll survey of state voting intention in Western Australia provides grim news for the Labor opposition, with the Liberal-National lead on two-party preferred reaching a new high of 57-43. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 30 per cent, the Liberal are up three to 41 per cent, the Nationals steady on 6 per cent and the Greens are down two to 14 per cent. Opposition Leader Eric Ripper, whose hold on the Labor leadership is thought to be looking tenuous, is down two points on both approval and disapproval, to 34 per cent and 42 per cent, while Colin Barnett is up a point on approval to 55 per cent and down one on disapproval to 32 per cent. Barnett’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 60-19 to 61-17. The survey covers 842 respondents over the past three months, with a margin of error of about 3.5 per cent.

Newspoll: 54-46 to Liberal-National in WA

The latest quarterly state Newspoll result for Western Australia reflects a national trend in showing Labor diving on the primary vote, down five points to 32 per cent, but recovering some sort of respectability through preferences from the Greens, who despite the Adele Carles imbroglio have surged five points to a record equalling 16 per cent. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 44 per cent, but their two party lead is up from 53-47 to 54-46. Colin Barnett has further increased his lead over Eric Ripper as preferred premier, from 58-19 to 60-19, and his approval rating is up four points to 55 per cent with disapproval down one to 33 per cent. Ripper is up on both approval (three points to 36 per cent) and disapproval (one point to 44 per cent).

Morgan: 54-46 to Labor

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last week from a sample of 931, has failed to replicate the convulsion of Newspoll. Labor holds a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 54.5-45.5 last weekend and 56-44 a fortnight previous. Labor’s primary vote has remained stable through the period: from 43 per cent to 44 per cent to 43.5 per cent, while the Coalition have gone from 37.5 per cent to 40.5 per cent to 40 per cent. Like Newspoll, the result suggests the ETS issue has not benefited the Greens, who have gone from 12 per cent to 8 per cent to 9 per cent. However, there is no evidence of the starting rise in Newspoll’s “others” vote. While a heartening result for Labor in some respects, this is still their worst result in a Morgan two-party poll since November 2006.

It also follows yesterday’s Morgan phone poll of 555 respondents which had the parties locked on 50-50. The principal concern of the poll was to gauge opinion on the tax package: among other things, it found 43 per cent believing the package would make them better off against 25 per cent worse off, while 47 per cent thought it would be good for Australia against 34 per cent bad.

Furthermore:

• Labor sources are feeding The West Australian details of serious concerns about the party’s federal prospects in Western Australia in the wake of the mining tax policy announcement. On Wednesday, The West’s Andrew Probyn cited talk of “disastrous” internal polling in the seat of Hasluck, held by Sharryn Jackson on a post-redistribution margin of 1.0 per cent, which could only have been conducted before the announcement was made. Today the paper goes so far as to report “party strategists” believe Stephen Smith and Gary Gray might be imperilled in Perth and Brand, respectively said to be home to “up to 15,000 mostly city-based mining sector workers” and “up to 20,000 fly-in fly-out mining workers” (which I have to say sounds a bit much). The Liberal-held marginal of Swan, which the redistribution has nudged over to the other side of the pendulum, is “expected to remain in the hands of hard-working Liberal Steve Irons”. It can presumably be inferred that Alannah MacTiernan is also unlikely to have much luck in Canning. The report further states the tax “may also see the Liberal Party hold a third Senate spot … at the expense of the Greens”. Confusingly, this appears to suggest the two scenarios on the table are three Labor/three Liberal and three Labor/two Liberal/one Greens, both rosier for Labor than the three Liberal/two Labor/one Greens result that has become the WA norm.

• The Illawarra Mercury has published a poll of voters in safe Labor Throsby and Cunningham. Thanks to DaveM in comments, we learn this has Labor’s primary vote at 49 per cent (down 10 per cent on 2007), the Liberals on 29 per cent (up 4 per cent), the Greens on 12 per cent (steady) and “others” on 11 per cent (up 7 per cent). The sample was a threadbare 304, which gives a margin of error of about 5.5 per cent. Respondents were also asked about the federal government health takeover, which had 72 per cent support; and priorities for the budget, with 30 per cent nominating income assistance for pensioners and the unemployed, 26 per cent avoiding debt, 22 per cent cutting taxes to stimulate the ecnomy, 11 per cent assisting business to stimulate the economy and 9 per cent increasing spending to stimulate the economy.

• Former South Sydney and state-of-origin rugby league player David Boyle has been installed as Labor candidate for Gilmore by the party’s national executive. Nicole Hasham of the Illawarra Mercury reports this went against the express wishes of the party’s Gilmore federal electorate council, which passed a unanimous motion calling for the non-local Boyle to withdraw – presumably out of pique that they were not being allowed a rank-and-file ballot. Two other candidates who hoped to contest such a ballot were Neil Reilly, who ran in 2007, and Glen Sims, a Culburra real estate agent.

• James Massola of the Canberra Times reports David Gazard, acting director of the ACT Liberals, is seeking preselection for Eden-Monaro. It also reported that ACT Liberals are concerned that in pursuing this ambition he is neglecting the job of finalising federal candidates on his own bailiwick. The preselection process for Canberra and Fraser is said to have been “brought to a halt last year by party strategists including president Winifred Rosser and Tio Faulkner, an adviser to ACT opposition leader Zed Seselja, amid concerns about the lack of a stand-out candidate”.

• Jennifer Bennett of the Wentworth Courier reports Woollahra mayor Andrew Petrie has entered the bewildering field for Liberal preselection in Vaucluse, and that Sydney councillor Shayne Mallard does not propose to contest as a second-best option now the return of Malcolm Turnbull has thwarted his hopes for Wentworth.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Turnbull comeback has Labor aspirants for Wentworth thinking again. One such is said to be Robin Margo, senior counsel and NSW Jewish Board of Deputies president, who was first touted a week ago. Labor’s preselection for the seat will be held on June 5.

• Labor’s Karen Overington has announced she will not seek another term in Ballarat West
at the Victorian state election in November, citing the death of her husband last October and health problems of her own. This could make life difficult for Labor in a seat it holds by a margin of 6.6 per cent. Kim Stephens of the Ballarat Courier reports the first preselection nominee to come forward is Sharon Knight, manager of Lifeline Ballarat and family counselling services at Uniting Care Ballarat, and a former electorate officer to federal Ballarat MP Catherine King. Andrew Eales of the Courier also reports Ballarat councillor Cheryl Bromfield would “consider” running. “Ballarat businessman” Craig Coltman has been endorsed as Liberal candidate.

• The Diamond Valley Leader reports the Victorian Liberals’ central committee has installed Andrew Hart as candidate for the state seat of Eltham. The preselection process was delayed after the presumed front-runner, Nillumbik mayor Bo Bendtsen, withdrew from both the race and his position on council earlier in the year. The Leader reports two other aspirants, Simon Marston and Maxwell Gratton, withdrew shortly before the rescheduled preselection date, in the former case because the party had told him that at 62 he was too old.

• Queensland’s opposition has suffered a serious setback with two members quitting from the Liberal National Party: Burnett MP Rob Messenger, best remembered for his pursuit of the Beattie government over the “Doctor Death” scandal at Bundaberg Hospital, and Beaudesert MP Aidan McLindon, who entered parliament at the age of 29 at the 2009 election and launched a quixotic challenge against Lawrence Springborg’s position as deputy leader in February. The pair’s publicly stated grievances, it has to be said seem rather vague. AAP reports both supported John-Paul Langbroek for the leadership, and that their loss might weaken his position. Langbroek however professes himself glad to see the back of them, complaining they were “more concerned with their personal agenda than that of our political party and the direction I and the leadership team are taking the party”.

• Another new addition to the ranks of Australia’s independent parliamentarians is Fremantle MP Adele Carles, whose decision to part company with the Greens on Thursday deprived the party of its only mainland lower house MP.

• ABC New England North West identifies three candidates who will seek preselection under the NSW Nationals open primary experiment for the state seat of Tamworth, held by independent Peter Draper. They include local mayor James Treloar, who ran unsuccessfully as an independent in 2001 when the seat was vacated by Tony Windsor’s entry to federal politics in New England; Russell Webb, a Tamworth councillor; and Mark Rodda, a departmental officer with the Land and Property Management Authority.

• DaveM in comments tells us the Illawarra Mercury reports plans by the Nationals to run a candidate in Throsby, for what reason I cannot imagine. The paper also reports “business consultant” Michelle Blicavs has been the Liberals’ only nominee for the state seat of Wollongong, held safely for Labor by high-profile Noreen Hay.

• Note the the looming by-election for the NSW state seat of Penrith, expected to be held in six weeks, is the subject of its own post.

Newspoll: 53-47 to Liberal-National in WA

Turns out Newspoll published its first survey of Western Australian state voting intention in a year on Thursday without me noticing – thanks to Ghost Who Votes in comments for drawing my attention to it. The poll shows the Liberal-National government with what by first term standards is a fairly modest two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 40 per cent for the Liberals, 5 per cent for the Nationals and 37 per cent for Labor, with the Greens little changed from the 2008 election on 11 per cent. Both leaders’ personal ratings have declined over the past year: Colin Barnett’s approval rating is down five points to 51 per cent and his disapproval up nine to 34 per cent, while Eric Ripper is respectively down two to 33 per cent and up nine to 43 per cent. Barnett’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed slightly from 60-14 to 58-19.

Westpoll: 57-43 to Liberal in WA

The first Westpoll survey since October (indeed, the first WA state poll since that time, Newspoll having gone quiet on the subject) shows the Barnett government back to a commanding 57-43 lead after recording a slightly worrying 53-47 last time. It can be presumed that this was from the usual small sample of 400, giving it a margin of error of nearly 5 per cent. The poll shows a big jump in the undecided vote on preferred premier, with both Colin Barnett (54 per cent) and Eric Ripper (12 per cent) down five points. It also presents the surprising finding that after a month’s merciless pillorying in the media, support for Police Minister Rob Johnson being sacked is running 22 per cent to 50 per cent against.

Willagee by-election live

# % SWING 2PP
Chew (CDP) 1170 6.9%
Tinley (ALP) 9123 53.8% 1.7% 60.0%
Harper (GRN) 5177 30.5% 13.8% 40.0%
Georgatos (IND) 1478 8.7%
TOTAL 16948
COUNTED: 76.8%
BOOTHS (OF 12): 12

Sunday. I’ve identified nine previous by-elections which were contested by Labor and the Greens but not the Liberals – four federal in which Labor was in opposition, and five state in which they were in government. The average result overall was a 0.11 per cent primary vote swing against Labor. In the state by-elections it was 0.9 per cent against Labor; in the federal by-elections it was 0.88 per cent to Labor. Six of the results were worse for Labor than Willagee, while only three were better.

However, I’d argue that one of these by-elections didn’t fit the mould. That was the Isaacs federal by-election in 2000, caused by the death of Greg Wilton. All the others were like Willagee in that they were caused by the voluntary mid-term departure of the sitting member, which demonstrably leads voters to be unhappy with the party concerned. Sure enough, Isaacs was Labor’s best result out of the 10, with their primary vote increasing 8.1 per cent. Take that out of the equation and Labor on average suffered a 1.14 per cent swing overall, or 1.53 per cent against when limited to the federal by-elections conducted while they were in opposition. Only two of eight results were better for Labor than Willagee, against six worse.

8.19pm. It’s in. With the notional two-party result with all booths counted plus (I presume) the evening’s supply of postals and pre-polls, the WAEC’s notional 2CP result is 60.53-39.47. My rough yardstick for the evening had been 50-30-10-10, so Labor can feel pleased, particularly with the psychologically important achievement of having improved their primary vote. My expectation of a Greens primary vote of 30 per cent factored in that it had been an unhappy campaign for them, but their 30.6 per cent is nonetheless a reasonable result that again demonstrates Liberal voters’ willingness to vote tactically. I’m told the Gerry Georgatos campaign had a fairly low profile at polling booths, which probably helps explain the surprising fact that the Greens got more preferences than Labor despite both minor candidates directing against them on HTV cards. Much of his support would have come from Liberals parking their vote with the only available independent and following their normal habit of putting Labor last, and he equally has a support base among natural Greens sympathisers.

8.04pm. I gather we’re still awaiting one booth’s notional 2CP count, and that will be it for the evening.

7.52pm. To clarify, the WAEC’s “2CP count” obviously refers to the full distribution of preferences, which will not be conducted until all the votes are in. They would do better to call it that.

7.45pm. Final two booths, Coolbellup Primary School and Southern Districts Senior Citizens Centre, have reported, respectively giving Labor a relatively poor and relatively good result.

7.43pm. Looks like the Greens are doing quite a bit better on preferences than either I or Antony Green had estimated. With real figures to play with, my 2PP figure for Labor has gone down from 63.0 per cent to 60.4 per cent.

7.37pm. The WAEC have outsmarted me. I had been hitting refresh on their “two-candidate preferred” page and coming up with nothing. It turns out they have a separate page called “notional distribution of preferences”. I will be interested to learn what the distinction between these two concepts is. No polling booth breakdown is offered.

7.33pm. The Greens might have spoken too soon in claiming victory there – 306 to 297 in favour of Tinley. Nonetheless, it’s given them their biggest primary vote swing of 23.0 per cent. Continuing the trend of Fremantle, evidently a lot of Liberals are happy to thumb their nose at Labor by parking their votes with the Greens.

7.32pm. Anglican Church of the Holy Cross Hall in Melville added.

7.25pm. Labor primary vote up slightly at Samson Primary School; just keeping their nose in front in the race to improve on their 2008 primary vote.

7.24pm. Samson Primary School added.

7.19pm. Greens Twitter feed reports they have won the Anglican Church of the Holy Cross Hall, which presumably means on the primary vote. This is Labor’s weakest and the Liberals’ strongest booth in the electorate. The other strong Liberal booth is the just reported Melville Senior High School – with a lot of slack to be taken up here there were solid primary vote swings for both Labor and Greens.

7.18pm. Melville Senior High School and Southwell Primary School added.

7.15pm. Labor vote down 5.1 per cent in Hilton, their weakest result yet.

7.13pm. Hilton Primary School and 933 pre-polls added.

7.08pm. East Hamilton Hill the first polling booth to give the Greens a single figure primary vote swing – however, this was a particularly poor booth for the Liberals, so there was less slack to be taken up. Labor down 2.3 per cent; touch and go whether they’ll break even.

7.07pm. East Hamilton Hill Primary School added. Still no real 2PP results.

7.02pm. Southern Districts Senior Citizens Centre (Drive-in) sees a lot more business this time around – 126 votes compared to 18.

6.59pm. Labor down slightly in both, Greens up 13.0 per cent and 17.9 per cent.

6.58pm. Caralee Community School and North Lake Senior Campus added.

6.52pm. Phoenix Primary School in – Labor down 3.6 per cent, Greens up 11.7 per cent.

6.48pm. All three sources have Labor up on the primary vote, though by wildly varying amounts. Same goes for the Greens – if their increase in Palmyra from 16.4 per cent 35.8 per cent is typical of the polling booth results, they will make up a lot of ground from the present scoreline.

6.47pm. 1658 postal votes added (this won’t be all of them).

6.46pm. Palmyra Primary School booth added.

6.35pm. A note of explanation. Vote numbers and the percentage figures to their right are raw votes. The swing and 2PP figures are derived through booth matching, so Tinley’s primary vote from special institutions and hospitals is 22.4 per cent higher than Carpenter’s was. The 2PP figure is based on a guesstimate that Liberal preferences would have gone 80-20 in favour of the Greens in 2008, and that this time CDP preferences will go 70-30 to Labor and Georgatos’s will split 50-50. On that basis, there has been a 25.2 per cent swing to Labor from special institutions and hospitals in Labor-versus-Greens terms. The CDP and Georgatos preference splits I’m using will be superseded by real preference splits when notional two-party figures start to come in.

6.31pm. Special institutions and hospitals are in. Good enough for me – I’m calling it for Tinley.

6.10pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Willagee by-election count. First figures should be through in about 15 minutes or so.

Westpoll: 53-47 to Liberal in WA

Bit late with this one, but Thursday’s West Australian featured one of its increasingly occasional 400-sample Westpoll surveys of state voting intention. The year-old Liberal-National government’s two-party lead was at a fairly modest 53-47, compared with an unlikely 59-41 at the last such poll in June. Both leaders are up four points on preferred premier: Colin Barnett to 59 per cent, Eric Ripper to 17 per cent.