Category: New South Wales Election 2023

The Sydney Morning Herald breaks the New South Wales election campaign poll drought with a result from Resolve Strategic that suggests the momentum of the campaign has been in favour of the Coalition. Whereas the previous poll of February 22 to 26 was unique among the polls at the start of the campaign in crediting Labor with a strong primary vote, this one has them both at 38%, with the Coalition up six and Labor steady. Making way for the improving Coalition are the Greens, down three to 8%, and independents, down five to 8%, with others up one to 8%. UPDATE: Gorks in comments makes a point I should have picked up on: that “Resolve does this every election where final poll shows massive primary vote changes because they show the ballot paper in survey questions”. No two-party preferred is provided, but I would roughly calculate this at a bit over 52-48 in favour of Labor.

Dominic Perrottet also records a solid improvement in his personal ratings, his combined very good and good result up seven from the previous poll to 52%, while his poor plus very poor rating is down eight to 32%. Chris Minns is up three on very good plus good to 46% and down two on poor plus very poor to 26%, with 28% remaining undecided. Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier increases from 38-34 to 40-34. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1000.

After opening with a barrage of results from Newspoll, Resolve Strategic, Freshwater Strategy and Roy Morgan, the New South Wales state election has been marked by complete silence on the public polling front. Nor has the campaign had much to offer in the way of excitement, beyond the usual procession of quickly forgotten promises and social media controversies involving obscure candidates.

Which leaves us with:

• Brad Norington of The Australian reports that Labor is “increasingly confident”, while recognising that they may gain only six of the nine seats required to get them all the way to a majority. Doing so would likely require Riverstone and Parramatta, which are rated merely as “doable”. Should they fall short, Ben Raue at The Tally Room lays out the scenarios for a hung parliament.

• Teal independent Pittwater candidate Jacqui Scruby has filed a complaint over Liberal Party signs alerting voters to the fact that they only need number one box, arguing they are made to appear as official rather than party political announcements. The signs do have a small Liberal logo on the bottom right, but it is alleged they are being positioned so as to obscure it. The complaint echoes that against Chinese language Liberal signs used in Melbourne at the 2019 election, which the Federal Court ruled found deceptive in their adoption of the Australian Electoral Commission’s white-and-purple colour scheme.

• The Liberals have registered two sets of how-to-vote cards for Balmain, Newtown and Summer Hill, one recommending a first preference for the Liberal candidate only, the other a preference to Greens ahead of Labor.

• The Coalition has been getting the worst of the routine election campaign parade of social media indiscretions from candidates in unwinnable seats. The latest case is Bill Burst in Maroubra, who took to Facebook to voice commonly heard right-wing opinions on climate change and the treatment of COVID.

• The Sydney Morning Herald has published breakdowns from its Resolve Strategic poll of three weeks ago by three age cohorts, showing Labor on 39%, the Coalition on 28% and the Greens on 17% among those aged 18 to 34; Labor on 41%, the Coalition on 26% and the Greens on 14% among those 35 to 54; and Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 41% and the Greens on 3% among those 55 and over.

• I had an article in Crikey this week on the growing problem the Liberals face from right-wing minor parties poaching votes from them, such voters overwhelmingly following the practice encouraged by Liberal election signs in allowing their votes to exhausted after the first preference.

Recent highlights, such as they are, from a distinctly uneventful New South Wales state election campaign:

• Too late to affect their placement on the ballot paper, the Coalition have disendorsed two candidates in no chance seats this week over past indiscretions on Twitter: 20-year-old Ash Barnham in Cessnock, who has been dropped by the Nationals over comments two years ago denigrating women, gays and Jews, and Liberal candidate Matthew Squires in Wyong, who among other things described homosexuality as a “perversion”.

• A report in the Daily Telegraph on Saturday, which I can’t find online, related a Climate 200 poll showing an effective dead heat between Liberal member Felicity Wilson and teal independent Helen Conway in North Shore, with the former leading 50.7-49.3 on two-candidate preferred. Wilson led 33.6% to 17.9% on the primary vote, with Labor on 16.6%, the Greens on 10.4% and 9.8% uncommitted. The poll had a sample of 600, with no field work dates identified in the report. Liberal sources quoted in The Australian today say the party is concerned about independents in North Shore, Wakehurst and Willoughby, but seemingly less so in Manly and Vaucluse.

• The Financial Review last week reported that Freshwater Strategy found Labor candidate Warren Kirby with a 54-46 lead over Liberal candidate Mohit Kumar in Riverstone, from primary votes of Labor 40%, Liberal 37%, Greens 7% and One Nation 7%. The accompanying report was distinctly light on further detail, but this appears to have been a supplement to the statewide poll published by the paper last week, which was conducted the Thursday to Saturday before last.

UPDATE: Adrian Beaumont’s latest piece in The Conversation draws attention to seat polls I had missed from Redbridge Group, showing Labor 54-46 ahead in Parramatta but the Liberals 51-49 ahead in Penrith (though the accompanying release acknowledges the Liberal vote is “a little under-reported” in the former).

Following the closure of nominations yesterday, today was the day candidates were announced and ballot paper draws conducted. My election guide has been updated accordingly with full candidate lists in ballot paper order on each electorate page, and I’ve also been very busy supplementing it with a few formerly missing bits: more candidate photos and bios, full results of by-elections in the five seats that have had them over the past term, and a fair bit of work on the Legislative Council guide now that I know exactly what’s going on there, which is always obscure until candidate details are published.

The number of candidates is little changed on last time: 562 in the lower house compared with 568, and 21 upper house groups compared with 20. One Nation and the Liberal Democrats are both running in 17 seats compared with 12 and 10 respectively last time; there are 68 lower house independents, up from 52; Animal Justice are down from 48 to 33; Shooters Fishers and Farmers are down from 25 to 20; and Sustainable Australia are up from 55 to 82. Notable absences this time are Keep Sydney Open, Australian Conservatives and the Christian Democrats, who respectively ran in 42, 19 and 18 lower house seats in 2019. New to the game are Legalise Cannabis with 23 lower house candidates and Informed Medical Options with 10, plus a couple of others.

Of note:

• In the Legislative Council, the first two columns have gone to high-profile figures of the right, although neither are part of a registered party, which should put a crimp on their chances. In column A is a ticket headed by Lyle Shelton, high-profile former managing director of the Australian Christian Lobby and a leading figure in the campaign against same-sex marriage. Group B is a ticket headed by Craig Kelly, who remains the national director of the United Australia Party, which is not registered in New South Wales. A membership revolt against John Ruddick’s dumping as lead Liberal Democrats candidate evidently succeeded, as he heads the party’s ticket at Group J, one spot next to the Coalition at Group I. The party does quite a lot better when it is well to the left of the Liberals, and thus the first party with liberal in the name that most voters encounter. Labor are in group D, while the Greens and One Nation have both drawn short straws at groups Q and R on a ticket that extends to Group U. UPDATE: Antony Green points out that the Craig Kelly and Silvana Nile tickets, along with some lesser-known ones, have neglected to nominate 15 candidates, which means that while they will get their own column on the ballot paper, they will not have above-the-line boxes, so those wishing to vote for them will have to number candidates individually – presumably reducing their chances from little to none.

• A surprise late development has been the emergence of outgoing Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons as the Liberal candidate in Kiama, which will be defended by Liberal-turned-independent member Gareth Ward. The party’s candidate review committee last week rejected its only existing nominee the seat, Gail Morgan. Gibbons was defeated for preselection in her existing seat and repeatedly overlooked for a position on the Legislative Council ticket, despite Dominic Perrottet having promised her a position in the ministry when she was persuaded not to pursue the federal seat of Hughes. Perrottet says Gareth Ward’s suspension should continue as long as he faces sexual assault charges.

• Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone will not after all be running in Cabramatta, or backing another independent in Fairfield. As the Sydney Morning Herald’s CBD column noted this morning, Carbone finally came off the fence after Labor promised $115 million for an upgrade of Fairfield Hospital.

Other news:

• Max Maddison of The Australian reported on Monday that an unidentified Liberal MP believed the party’s situation was “mirroring the federal election: holding up quite well in Sydney’s west but seeing significant swings across middle Sydney”. In particular, “the swing now appeared to be on in seats like Ryde, Parramatta and Oatley”, and pessimistic noises were further made about Penrith and East Hills in view of their narrow margins. A “senior Liberal minister” was quoted saying “Parramatta is dead”, adding credence to a report from Seven News on Sunday that the party’s internal polling pointed to a 10% swing, more than sufficient to account for a margin of 6.5%. Efforts to take back Coogee from Labor had been abandoned, and there was “a degree of risk” from teal independents in North Shore, Pittwater, Willoughby and Wakehurst, although Vaucluse candidate Kellie Sloane was “doing well and likely to be elected”.

• Antony Green has prepared a splendidly detailed file showing how candidates’ preferences flowed in each seat in 2019, based on the lower house ballot paper data which New South Wales uniquely provides.

Roy Morgan added to a glut of recent New South Wales state polling on Friday, and while this one was recently conducted and not published a month after the event as per its recent form, it was conducted through the dubious means of SMS. The poll had Labor leading 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 33.5%, Coalition 32.5%, Greens 11% and One Nation 8.5%. Dominic Perrottet recorded a favourable split of 53-47 in an all-or-nothing personal approval question, but Chris Minns led 54-46 as preferred premier. The poll was conducted last Thursday to Tuesday from a sample of 981.

Further developments:

• The Liberals still don’t have a candidate in Kiama, which Gareth Ward hopes to retain as an independent after being dumped from the party. The Illawarra Star reported reopened nominations just days ago after the only nominee, local poet and author Gail Morgan, was rejected by the party’s candidate review committee. Morgan had told Nine News in 2021 that allegations against Gareth Ward that would eventually result in charges of indecent assault were a “stitch up”, and wrote an email to Chris Minns in which she said she would vote for him if he acted against over-development. The report quoted a Liberal source who suggested the party would run either half-heartedly or not at all against Ward, who retained strong local support and would be welcomed back into the party if acquitted.

• The Liberals have chosen Jacqui Munro, consultant for public relations agency Red Havas and president of the state party’s women’s council, to replace ousted incumbent Peter Poulos on the Legislative Council ticket. Munro won moderate faction endorsement for the position with support from deputy leader Matt Kean, again overlooking Shayne Mallard, who was dropped to help address the party’s gender balance problem, and Melanie Gibbons, who lost preselection in her lower house seat in Holsworthy and had been promised a position in the ministry by Dominic Perrottet. The state executive ratified Munro with 13 votes in favour, nine against and two abstentions, the closeness of the result reflecting objections over her history of progressive statements on social media.

• After a long delay, Labor has chosen David Saliba, a management consultant and former Australian Federal Police officer, as its candidate for the safe seat of Fairfield, which will be vacated with the retirement of Guy Zangari. Saliba was anointed by the party’s national executive ahead of Fairfield councillor Carmen Lazar. Saliba unsuccessfully challenged Zangari for preselection before the last election with backers including Chris Bowen, who holds the corresponding federal seat of McMahon.

• Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone continues to keep observers guessing as to whether he will submit a nomination form he says he has filled out for the seat of Cabramatta. The Daily Telegraph further reported a fortnight ago that Carbone might also be “running a candidate in the neighbouring seat of Fairfield”, without identifying who that might be.

• Steve Whan has been confirmed as Labor’s candidate for Monaro, which he held for the party from 2003 to 2011. Whan filled a vacancy in the Legislative Council after John Barilaro won the seat for the Nationals in 2011, which he relinquished in 2015 when making an unsuccessful first comeback bid in his old seat. The parties initial nominee, former NRL state-of-origin representative Terry Campese, announced his withdrawal in mid-February.

• The Liberals have endorsed Craig Chung, former Ryde and Sydney councillor and owner of an education business, to run in Kogarah against Chris Minns, who has been left with a non-existent margin after a Liberal swing in 2019 and an unfavourable redistribution.

Better than never, the Poll Bludger now brings you its guide to the March 25 New South Wales state election, containing the usual features: comprehensive written reviews of all 93 seats accompanied by tables, charts and interactive maps of booth result from the 2019 election; a guide to the Legislative Council; and a summary overview page. I regard it as still needing work to the extent that the “profile” sections on the seat pages do not yet offer the usual level of demographic and redistribution detail, and the Legislative Council page is wanting for candidate photos, though no doubt only a diehard follower of the site would be alert to such deficiencies. Margins and post-redistribution party votes are based on my own calculations, which partly explains the delay. For the most part, these differ very little from those calculated by Antony Green for the ABC.

We also have a new poll result courtesy of the Sydney Morning Herald and Resolve Strategic, which apparently does not follow the normal practice of this series in producing state polls combined from two monthly national surveys. It is instead reported as encompassing 803 respondents from Wednesday to Sunday, and is thus no less timely than this week’s Newspoll and Freshwater Strategy polls. The results, however, are particularly encouraging for Labor, crediting them with a primary vote of 38% (up a point on two months ago) as compared with 32% for the Coalition (down two), 11% for the Greens (down one) and 13% for independents (up one). The pollster does not provide two-party preferred, but this would pan out to upwards of 56-44 in Labor’s favour based on preference flows in 2019. Dominic Perrottet nonetheless records a combined very good and rating of 45% compared with 40% for very poor and poor, respectively compared with 43% and 28% for Chris Minns. Perrottet retains a 38-34 lead as preferred premier, unchanged in margin from his 33-29 lead two months ago, reflecting a lower undecided rate.