12:13pm Friday Nearly all votes have now been counted, and Meretz (3.16%) is still below the 3.25% threshold, while Balad has slid to 2.90%. According to Wikipedia, current results would give Netanyahu’s bloc 64 of the 120 Knesset seats.
9:20pm With the count now at 93.0%, Balad had been going backwards and is now at 2.96%, 0.29% below the 3.25% threshold. Meretz is also still below the threshold at 3.15%. But even if Meretz crosses the threshold, Netanyahu will have a majority. It’s time to call it. Projection: Netanyahu’s bloc will win a Knesset majority. That means the era of frequent Israeli elections is likely over, and the next election won’t be held for about four years.
7:52am Count now up to 88.8%, little change in results. If the Joint Arab List had not split into Hadash Ta’al and Balad, the combined total vote for that list may have denied Netanyahu a majority if Meretz had also crossed the threshold. By splitting, they risked Netanyahu winning a majority if one of the new parties didn’t make the threshold, and Balad is unlikely to make it.
6:41am Thursday With 87.6% counted, little change on the previous results, with Meretz (3.19%) and Balad (3.03%) still below the 3.25% threshold. Remaining votes should be counted over the next few days with the final result to be declared next Wednesday.
7:24pm With 84.3% counted, little change with Meretz (3.20%) and Balad (3.05%) still below the 3.25% threshold. On current numbers, a Haaretz update gives Netanyahu’s bloc 65 of the 120 seats. The only realistic hope for the anti-Netanyahu parties is for both Meretz and Balad to cross the threshold.
6:19pm That last batch was left-leaning, with Netanyahu’s bloc down to a combined 48.1%.
6:16pm With 79.8% counted, Meretz is up to 3.23%, just below the 3.25% threshold, while Balad is at 3.07%. Labor has 3.60%, Hadash Ta’al 3.94% and Ra’am 4.25%.
6:07pm It’s not just the parties who are currently below the threshold that is helping Netanyahu; his four parties’ bloc currently has 50.3% of the vote combined.
5:36pm With 71.3% counted in Israel, Ra’am receives a big boost and is up to 3.86%, well above the 3.25% threshold. But Hadash Ta’al, another Arab party, is teetering at 3.33%, while Meretz falls to 3.05% and Balad has 2.79%.
5:07pm The Danish election was also held Tuesday. The left-leaning “Red Bloc” of parties won 90 of the 179 seats, a one seat majority. The right-leaning “Blue Bloc” won 73 seats, and a new centrist party won the remaining 16 seats. The left retains office after winning in June 2019. They will be relieved not to have to depend on the Moderates.
4:33pm With 62.4% counted, the Arab party Hadash Ta’al drops back to 3.38%, Meretz to 3.17%, Balad to 2.75% and Ra’am to 2.47%. It’s looking as if Balad and Ra’am are done for, giving Netanyahu a bigger than expected majority.
3:59pm An update in the Haaretz live blog says that currently Netanyahu’s bloc would win 68 of the 120 Knesset seats. That’s with Meretz, Balad and Ra’am missing the threshold, and I think Meretz will make it on later counting.
3:52pm With 44.6% counted, Labor is up to 3.66% and Meretz to 3.24%, so both will probably clear the threshold. However, Balad has 3.11% and United Arab List (Ra’am) 2.87% – they’re both in serious jeopardy.
2:49pm With 34.6% counted, there are four parties that are just above or just below the 3.25% threshold: Labor (3.27%), the Arab party Balad (3.14%), the United Arab List (3.09%) and the left-wing Meretz (2.67%). Labor and Meretz should gain in later counting, but I’m not sure about the Arab parties.
12:38pm In past Israeli elections, the first votes counted have been skewed towards right-wing parties as Jerusalem reports relatively quickly, and the religious parties do well there. Tel Aviv reports later, and the left do better there.
12:35pm Turnout for the Israeli election was 71.3%. Official results are here, but unhelpfully don’t tell us how much has been counted. With a 71.3% turnout and 6.79 million overall electors, there should be 4.84 million votes. So 627,000 have been counted so far, which is 13.0% of turnout.
7:21am Wednesday: Exit polls give Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc of Likud, Shas, UTJ and Religious Zionists 61-62 of the 120 Knesset seats, enough for a majority. The anti-Netanyahu parties combined have 54-55 and an Arab party that is not aligned with the current government has the remaining four seats. Early exit polls have been wrong before, and we’ll need to wait for actual results.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The Israeli election will be held today, after a government formed to keep out former PM Benjamin Netanyahu collapsed in June. The 120 members of the Knesset are elected by national proportional representation with a 3.25% threshold. A majority requires 61 seats.
Polls close at 7am AEDT Wednesday. Exit polls will be released soon after polls close, but the Election Day count is unlikely to be finalized until late Wednesday afternoon AEDT. There will be small additional counting over the next few days.
Right-wing parties that are likely to support Netanyahu are his own Likud, the religious Shas and UTJ, and the far-right Religious Zionists. The final allowed polls were published by Friday; they give these right-wing parties a combined 60-62 Knesset seats, while the current governing parties have 54-56 seats. An Arab party that is not part of the government has the remaining four seats.
Two Arab parties – Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am – are consistently shown as winning four seats, meaning they are just above the 3.25% threshold. If either were to drop below this threshold, they would win no seats and Netanyahu’s bloc would be advantaged and win a majority. The Arab Joint List split into two parties and one of the offshoots is unlikely to beat the threshold.
The biggest loser of this election is likely to be the right-wing Yamina party, which joined the anti-Netanyahu government under party leader and former PM Naftali Bennett. Yamina has joined with Jewish Home, and will run under the Jewish Home name, but is unlikely to surpass the threshold.
The biggest election winner is likely to be the Religious Zionists, which currently hold seven Knesset seats. Polls have them winning 12-15 seats to be the third biggest party behind Likud and the liberal Yesh Atid.
Other recent election results
After losing Sunday’s Brazilian presidential runoff election by 50.9-49.1, far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has not yet conceded defeat. However, some of his key allies have accepted the result. Leftist winner Lula will be sworn in as president on January 1, 2023.
At the October 3 election in the Canadian province of Quebec, the conservative CAQ won 41.0% of the vote and 90 of the 125 seats under first past the post. Four other parties split the remaining vote, with each winning between 12.9% and 15.4%.
At the October 9 election in the German state of Lower Saxony, the centre-left SPD won 33.4% of the vote (down 3.5%), the conservative CDU 28.1% (down 5.5%), the Greens 14.5% (up 5.8%), the far-right AfD 11.0% (up 4.8%) and the pro-business FDP 4.7% (down 2.8%). As the FDP missed the 5% threshold, the SPD and Greens will have a combined majority of 81 of the 146 seats.
While this result is encouraging for the left in Germany, the combined vote percentage for the current federal governing SPD, Greens and FDP has dropped into the mid 40s from 52.0% at the September 2021 German federal election.