Essential Research: PM favourability and China relationship (open thread)

Another poll finding little change in perceptions of the Prime Minister, despite a deteriorating view of the national direction.

The latest Essential Research survey has its monthly favourability trend ratings for Anthony Albanese which, as distinct from its straightforward approval/disapproval question, asks respondents to rate his performance on a scale of one to ten. This finds 46% giving him from seven to ten, up one on a month ago; 26% from four to six, down two; and 23% from zero to three, up three. On the question of national direction, 44% rate that Australia is on the right track, down two on a month ago and four on two months ago, compared with 36% for the wrong track, up two on a month ago and seven on two months ago.

Other questions relate to Australia’s relationship with China, which 46% expect to be better under the Labor government compared with only 9% for worse. Asked whether they wanted the government to look for opportunities to rebuild relations with China, take a more confrontational approach or maintain the current course, 54% opted for the first (up two from May), 13% the second (down six) and 12% the third (steady). Forty-four per cent think the AUKUS submarine partnership will make Australia more secure compared with 16% for less secure and 39% for about the same.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1042. Note that progressively updated coverage of the Victorian election count continues on the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,725 comments on “Essential Research: PM favourability and China relationship (open thread)”

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  1. well bw you seem to adopt sky news logick excusing the nationals opposition to the voice buy using astraw man aargument that some how it is not realy dutton that is stoping the voice but the greens and we can not critercize thehigens case because the judges are exburts

  2. Yabba

    You probably did not notice it because you are so consumed with your own overweening sense of arrogant, impatient and hypertense self-importance but I have previously advocated on this blog for reform of the trial system. My support includes getting rid of the defendants’ so-called right to silence. I believe the latter would lead to a substantial shift in outcomes in rape trials.

    I am rather enjoying feeding you back some of your insouciant insulting behaviour, but enough!

    It is time to catch up with Shetland on Iview.

  3. ‘Aaron newton says:
    Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 8:25 pm

    well bw you seem to adopt sky news logick excusing the nationals opposition to the voice buy using astraw man aargument that some how it is not realy dutton that is stoping the voice but the greens and we can not critercize thehigens case because the judges are exburts’
    ——————————–
    FMD
    1. The Nationals are subverting the Voice. Openly. They are doing so on the basis of a false dichotomy between practical action and the Voice.
    2. Dutton is doing two bob each way. Not sure which way he will jump. His argument that he does not know what is in it yet at least gives him some sort of reason not to jump one way or the other just ye.
    3. The Greens’ spokesperson for Indigenous Affairs has announced that the Voice referendum is ‘a waste of money.’ Neither the spokesperson nor the Greens leader has resiled from that statement.
    If you want to believe that the Greens are acting in good faith and are supporting the Voice and using their legendary advocacy skills to get it up, go ahead. But more fool you if you do.

  4. i will have to disagree with the argument that it is somehow higins fault the media kept on interviewing her and not the justis system and if the voice fails it is not the nationals and most likely duton it is thorp because no indiginis person can disagree with the voice even though price does i find it hard to blame the greens when the nationals are actively aposing it i ddought frydenberg will win i cant find any liberal suporters that like him the media like sava might be pushing for him but the declining base like dutton and the media could not save turnbull

  5. Boerwar @ #1703 Sunday, December 4th, 2022 – 8:26 pm

    Yabba

    You probably did not notice it because you are so consumed with your own overweening sense of arrogant, impatient and hypertense self-importance but I have previously advocated on this blog for reform of the trial system. My support includes getting rid of the defendants’ so-called right to silence. I believe the latter would lead to a substantial shift in outcomes in rape trials.

    I am rather enjoying feeding you back some of your insouciant insulting behaviour, but enough!

    It is time to catch up with Shetland on Iview.

    Insouciant. There’s a smug, and very odd, choice of word. You doubt my sincerity?

    Bye bye, BW. Happy viewing.

  6. frydenberg may be a nice guy but he has litle personality albanese has been a suprisingly good pm vconsidering he is also not a great speaker but if peter costelow who is moore talinted then frydenberg could never be pm whiy would the former senyor advisor to downer and howard whothe so called moderit who tried to save kevin andrews preselection but was un sucesful

  7. with out the greens we would stil have a cashlis welthy card speaking of that thecostellow ran herald had a nother pease triying to save perottit today the crime comitian head had a go at the clubs claiming organized crime is going through the pockies egnoring the report about casinows and perottits efforts to change the law after that regulator said it was full of organized crime and his government including stokes bent over backwoods to acomadate barangeroo yeet the smh used tim cosstellow and the very helpfull greens and grenwich to claim some how mins is imoral becaue he does not want to distoroy the pockies while the casino operates no rules

  8. zoomster says:
    Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 8:09 pm

    Could we please leave the air travel ban until I’ve had a chance to go to Turkey?

    I’ve always wanted to, and I’m not up to the swim.
    ____________

    Indian Pacific to Adelaide; Ghan to Darwin; some sort of boat to Singapore; then exciting rail journey to Istanbul…via Moscow!

    https://rail.cc/train/singapore-to-istanbul

  9. iin vick maybi bw is right about the teels notbeing good for labor if the anti lib vote in horthorn was not split buy putting up an independent against labor there kenidy may haave hung on if costelow was woried about pockies whiy isnt he pushing andrews to implement this card whiy should the averige gambler be provented while a rich liberal doaner can go to casino this will not save him it did not work for wilkie

  10. Socrates @ #1695 Sunday, December 4th, 2022 – 8:17 pm

    Macarthur

    I read the comments of Finnish leaders, past and present, who have had to deal with Putin personally. (I especially recommend Alexander Stubb), who switched from politics to academia after defeat as PM. He talks about his own past mis-judgements with refreshing honesty.)

    Anyway none of them think Putin crazy – he is rational – but all say he operating from a quite different value system. It is all about power and he can be quite the ruthless bully. So hard to understand how Macron would fall for his “charm”.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=si9Phc9ArpU

  11. Boerwar @ Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 8:19 pm:

    “ I believe that the Russians would welcome an Ukraine attempt to cross the lower Dnipro in force. It is an optimum killing ground scenario for them.”
    ===========================

    Boerwar, yes, this is my belief too. The non-MSM sources I’ve been following (ISW, plus Jake Broe and Artur Rehi on YouTube) have all removed Kherson as an active offensive theatre for both sides, for the simple reason that neither side would benefit from an offensive there.

    Ukraine’s best shot in the South is a strike down to Melitopol. Russian forces in both Kherson and Crimea would face crippling supply constraints if such an offensive succeeded and presumably both sides know this.

  12. Socrates @ Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 8:17 pm:

    “ Anyway none of them think Putin crazy – he is rational – but all say he operating from a quite different value system. It is all about power and he can be quite the ruthless bully. So hard to understand how Macron would fall for his “charm”.
    ===========================

    To be honest, I wasn’t thinking “charm”, so much as “offer you can’t refuse” – which would fit much better with this picture of a rational bully. I imagine Putin would be expressing some variant on “Is a slice of Ukraine and their promise to never join NATO really too high a price for YOU to agree to, if it will avert nuclear catastrophe?”

    In any event, Macron’s messaging here looks a lot like postitioning to prepare for rejecting Ukraine’s membership of NATO.

  13. How Xi Jinping made the ‘Chinese dream’ a nightmare for the next generation

    A leafy oasis in the sprawling megacity Beijing, Tsinghua University has been dubbed China’s “power factory” for producing a long line of leaders.

    Perhaps the university’s most powerful alumnus, Xi Jinping, will be concerned at what has been bubbling up on his old campus in recent weeks. Crowds of students holding blank pieces of paper – a symbol of rebellion – have made the university one of the hotbeds for the anti-government protests ripping through the country.

    Frustration at Xi’s perseverance with his tough zero-COVID stance has ignited the protests but experts believe the deteriorating prospects for young people has added more fuel to the fire.

    George Magnus*, associate at the China Centre at Oxford University, says: “[The protests] might mark an awakening of young people’s political consciousness, seeing the Communist Party for what it is and because aspirations economically are not as good as they used to be. That’s an important part of the backdrop.

    “There’s a generation that has grown up with a very politically sanitised version of its history. They don’t really know anything about Tiananmen, for example.”

    A record number of graduates are entering a jobs market with near record youth unemployment. Housing affordability in the biggest cities has become stretched to eye-wateringly expensive levels. And the young are shunning marriage, perhaps a symptom of the financial insecurity and the male-female imbalance caused by the one-child policy.

    More –
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-xi-made-the-chinese-dream-a-nightmare-for-the-next-generation-20221201-p5c2p4.html

    George Magnus* – Red Flags: Why Xi’s China Is in Jeopardy

  14. I ran out of podcasts to listen to today. So I tried the party room podcast, PK, FK and Laura Tingle. It was interesting. They all seems to swoon over Pocock, so he’s got nothing to fear as far as negative publicity is concerned for the foreseeable future.
    With the platforms that each of those ladies have, It’s kind of wild they do a podcast. What they said on that podcast could easily be part of their programs. I wonder if they get more freedom from editors.

  15. I was interested in the earlier discussion of Chifley University. The formation of the University of Western Sydney was very much a lived experience for me.
    The main campus of Chifley University was to be located at Werrington (north of the Great Western Highway) with Sydney University given the role of guiding its establishment. Sydney University Vice Chancellor, John Ward, took on the role of interim VC.
    But before this plan achieved fruition, the Dawkins changes to Higher education led to Nepean CAE and Hawkesbury Ag College agreeing, in 1988, to merge as a new University with effect from 1 January 1989.
    The NSW Government assigned the name “University of Western Sydney” but some elements of Chifley University continued: the Werrington (Chifley University) site became part of UWS Nepean (which was then based on the nearby Kingswood campus); John Ward was made UWS interim VC; and there were several Sydney Uni senior academics on the initial Board of Governors.
    Macarthur Institute of Higher education agreed to become part of UWS during 1989 as UWS Macarthur.
    I was disappointed that the Chifley name was not adopted but there were viable arguments at the time that using “Western Sydney” in the title was important to help engender a sense of ownership and pride in a community that had low levels of school completion and few families with a history of university attendance.

  16. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 6:54 pm
    ‘TPOF says:
    Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 5:34 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 4:08 pm

    Thousands of Afro-Americans were lynched on this very basis by righteous individuals who believed that they were being reasonable.

    _____________________________________

    The only basis for lynching of African-Americans over the years was to keep them in their place. It was never about justice, even rough justice, but about racial subjugation. The extra-judicial violence was intended to demonstrate that African-Americans were not entitled to their day in court. I would have thought you would know this BW.’
    ================================
    Uh huh. I studied American History at Uni and have read it ever since. My point was that the people doing the lynching thought that it was reasonable

    …………………………………………………

    I thought your point, which was the perfect response to Yabba’s ignorant contempt for legal process, was that when peoples start deciding guilt outside court processes, it allows all sorts of peoples to determine the punishment too, since there is not much point to finding someone guilty because “it feels right” without continuing down the extra-judicial road. Hence lynchings.

  17. TPP: ALP 55 (0) L/NP 45 (0)
    Primaries: ALP 39 (+1) L/NP 35 (0) GRN 11 (0) ON 6 (0) OTH 8 (-1)

    Preferred PM: Albanese 59 (+5) Dutton 24 (-3)
    Albanese: Approve 62 (+3) Disapprove 29 (-4)
    Dutton: Approve 36 (-3) Disapprove 45 (-1)

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/anthony-albanese-on-a-high-after-year-of-success-newspoll/news-story/62b116c4ad5c0cb60cf04457eb79f618

    Anthony Albanese on a high after year of success: Newspoll
    By SIMON BENSON
    8:30PM DECEMBER 4, 2022

    Anthony Albanese will end the year in a commanding electoral position, posting his highest voter approval since becoming Prime Minister after declaring to have delivered on Labor’s core election commitments in the first six months of office.

    The Labor leader has also ­enjoyed a surge in support as the preferred prime minister despite pressure mounting to act on ­energy prices.

    An exclusive Newspoll commissioned by The Australian shows popular support for Labor also lifting after delivering controversial industrial relations ­reforms and following a week of partisan political battle over the censure motion against former prime minister Scott Morrison.

    But support for minor parties and independents fell to the ­lowest level since the May ­election.

  18. Geoffrey Boycott must be feeling a bit uncomfortable about England scoring 921 runs across two innings in a day and half batting time (135 overs).

  19. south says:
    Sunday, December 4, 2022 at 9:21 pm
    I ran out of podcasts to listen to today. So I tried the party room podcast, PK, FK and Laura Tingle. It was interesting. They all seems to swoon over Pocock, so he’s got nothing to fear as far as negative publicity is concerned for the foreseeable future.
    With the platforms that each of those ladies have, It’s kind of wild they do a podcast. What they said on that podcast could easily be part of their programs. I wonder if they get more freedom from editors.
    ————
    South, I don’t always listen to it, but I have never had the impression PK, FK et al have any more freedom than they do in regular broadcasts. The commentary generally comes down to a focus on the horse race and being the ABC there’s often a “both sides”/artificial equivalence undercurrent to the conversation.

    I did. hear this week’s episode while walking on the beach today . It was unusually complimentary to the ALP I thought in giving a very positive account of the government’s achievements to date, and of the much more positive parliamentary culture. It was also pretty critical of Dutton and the opposition generally.

    Maybe because it was the final episode for the year they felt they could get away with being a little more forthright than usual.

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