Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A nudge in the wrong direction for the Coalition in the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 54-46, out from 53-47 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down two), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (up one). Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 46% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 37% and down one on disapproval to 46%. Morrison leads 48-34 as preferred prime minister, out marginally from 47-34. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll also finds 35% saying Anthony Albanese and Labor would be better at “leading Australia’s response to the global climate change crisis”, 28% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition, and 21% saying both would be equal. It also find a continuation of a significant shift on what the federal government should prioritise out of energy prices, carbon emissions and preventing blackouts, which has now been asked four times going back to 2017. From July 2018 to February 2020 to the present, the response for carbon emissions has escalated from 24% to 43% to 47%, while energy prices has declined from 63% to 42% to 40%. Preventing blackouts has been steady, going from 9% to 11% to 10%. I am not able to access a sample size of the poll because I can’t get The Australian’s online printed edition to work, but the poll will have been conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.

UPDATE 2: The sample was 1515 – the methodology statement for the poll can be viewed here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,121 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Mavis @ #1095 Tuesday, October 26th, 2021 – 10:18 pm

    COVID-19 Vaccine rollout

    NSW

    85.5% fully vaccinated; first dose 80%

    National

    74.1% fully vaccinated; 87.1% first dose 80%

    How’s your doom & gloom theory going now dear Cud?

    You have to multiply those numbers by 0.8 to get the actual coverage rate versus the whole population (because covid doesn’t care if someone is over or under the vaccination age, so neither should the stats). So we’re a ways off yet from being able to be smug about how well-vaccinated we are.

  2. One Nation success in winning 11 state seats in Queensland in 1998 was largely because of federal issues of fears of immigration and speed of globalisation back in the nineties. Yes, gun control was also a part of it but it was mostly driven from immigration.

    I was on the ground in QLD during this time and you have it arse about, it started with gun control and immigration fed into the same people and grew from there. Fear of globalisation was not even on their radar most would not have had a real grasp of what globalisation was…your average One Nation voter probably still doesn’t.

  3. Talking of Howard and gun reform I can see similarities with Morrison’s 2050 net zero plan. Only the Liberal party can force the Nats on board. The ALP gets up and it turns to war again… the mines are not in bush. Have a yarn to Fitzgibbon.

  4. I get what you’re saying, but that’s a pretty tacky thing to say.

    Say what you want about Howard – I never doubted his personal commitment to gun control and he actually led.

    As opposed to Morrison, who flashed a near pointless pamphlet after being dragged kicking and screaming to the deliver on the barest of minimums without anything to be measured against… after being played by the biggest cons in the parliament.

  6. So I’ve been through the Plan. Holy dooley…

    What a circuitous, vacuous, hopeless effort.

    It looks to have been cobbled together in a couple of weeks at most, from a grab-bag of existing resources. There is repetition of almost every chart and diagram. There is padding in the front matter (3 pages of at-a-glance infographics, 1 page of exec summary), padding in the back matter (20+ pages of appendices listing past federal a state govt policies), and even padding in the middle (pages 13-20 being what exactly?). All to give an illusion of weight.

    The clincher is that there are no new policy instruments in the document.

    Anything that does appear new is a “voluntary opportunity” followed by a statement that “Australia is committed to maintaining a industry so won’t actively encourage anyone to change their ways.”

    So it appears that the plan is to keep doing what they are doing, which is as close to fuck-all as you can get away with while taking credit for the policies of all 6 states and 2 territories all pushing towards 50% renewables by 2035 and net-zero beyond that. Which is pretty damn close to fuck-all.

    But three weeks ago there wasn’t even a brochure, so I guess that’s progress, right?

  9. Dandy

    “So I’ve been through the Plan. Holy dooley…

    What a circuitous, vacuous, hopeless effort.”

    If we had anything like a decent, professional, competent media, this would be their response too.

  10. In actual, percentage of population terms, full vaccination rates:

    Portugal 86.8%
    United Arab Emirates 86.0%
    Malta 82.9%
    Spain 79.6%
    Uruguay 75.0%
    Canada 73.6%
    .
    .
    New Zealand 61.3%
    Australia 60.4%

    Even in NSW its 71.3% and may get to 78.7% if it follows the one-dose trend.

    We need to be in the mid 80s, meaning school age kids need high vaccination levels also.
    We’re also seeing poorer takeup in 20 somethings. Again, we need to keep up the pressure and continue to deny access to social venues to those not vaccinated, rather than copping out which is what Perrottet seems to be doing.

    Incidentally, Malta is at a third of Australia’s infection rate per capita. Spain is a half. Uruguay is a half. United Arab Emirates has a tenth of Australia’s infection rate per capita.

  11. A wing and a prayer.

    Morrison hailed Tuesday’s plan as a “practical way” to neutralise Australia’s emissions by 2050 but the plan showed almost a third of the abatement task is comprised of cuts via unspecified “technology breakthroughs” and “global trends” while a further 20% will be achieved through offsets.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/26/scott-morrison-says-australia-2050-net-zero-emissions-plan-based-on-choices-not-mandates

  12. Asha says Tuesday, October 26, 2021 at 11:24 pm

    I was talking to my brother, who spends a lot more time reading up about Covid and vaccines than I do, the other night, and he mentioned something about Pfizer that I was unaware of: apparently, exercising heavily for the first week or two after a Pfizer dose puts you at risk of – I think – some sort of dangerous clot (I can’t remember what, medicine not being my area of expertise), something that people are now warned about in some European countries but isn’t talked about here. As my brother is a gym junkie, this gave him some pause, as he didn’t know about this when he had his first dose. Luckily, I had both of my doses during a particularly lazy time in my life.

    (I might add that I really don’t know how reliable my brother’s info is here, he could well be misinformed.)

    There is a very small risk of Myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) and Pericarditis (inflammation of the thin sac that surrounds the heart) after receiving a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. It tends to be more common in men under 30 and is, I believe, easily treatable. I don’t know if exercising in the week after receiving the vaccine is a risk factor or not.

    Please see https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/cardiac-side-effects-and-covid-19

  13. What I was saying the other day. I’d have had no idea I was at risk of infection if I hadn’t been checking my check-in history regularly.

    More than 700,000 COVID-19 case alerts have been sent to NSW residents via the state’s check-in app in the past three weeks, but experts warn there is little awareness about the feature because people are not automatically notified on their smartphones.

    Customer Service Minister Victor Dominello has said the function, which alerts people if they have been to a COVID-19 exposure site, would be critical as the state learns to live with the virus and NSW Health begins to scale back contact tracing as vaccination rates rise.

    But the feature, which was launched in late September, is available only in the app’s check-in history where people can view locations they have visited in the past four weeks. A red “COVID-19 case alert” icon appears if the venue is listed as an exposure site.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/almost-useless-700-000-covid-19-case-alerts-hidden-in-nsw-phone-app-20211026-p5939x.html

  15. DM

    ‘The clincher is that there are no new policy instruments in the document.’

    Which makes all the drama with the Nationals seem even more unnecessary. Let alone the concessions.

  16. Nationals are all about drama and theatre.

    When they threaten to break up the Coalition last time they chicken out.

    All talk all bullshit.

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. and we have a Midweek Monster!

    David Crowe reports that more than half the community is willing to accept a personal cost to help cut Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, with 51 per cent of voters backing the idea amid stronger support for a net zero carbon target for 2050.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-willing-to-pay-for-climate-action-but-say-government-not-doing-fair-share-20211026-p5935x.html
    Crowe tells us that Scott Morrison is promising billions of dollars in further spending on climate policies to reach a new official target to slash greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, opening a battle with Labor over who has the better plan to achieve the goal. It will add to that already promised and incurring debt that will require greater tax revenue over time to cover the cost. As I said yesterday, the Nationals Tax.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/billions-more-in-spending-to-come-on-pm-s-road-to-net-zero-20211026-p593di.html
    He also writes that one key chart in Scott Morrison’s new climate policy shows the Prime Minister is wishing and hoping Australia can get to net zero rather than making absolutely sure it does. He says the new statement reveals that half the work of reaching the net zero deadline in 2050 will come from things nobody can be sure about – such as an assumption about global trends outside anyone’s control.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-delivered-the-pledge-voters-wanted-but-not-the-plan-they-needed-20211026-p59397.html
    We’ve spent a year waiting for this 2050 climate plan and it’s actually just the status quo with some new speculative graphs, laments Katherine Murphy who says the Coalition remains a prisoner of its own weaponised nonsense.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/26/weve-spent-a-year-waiting-for-this-2050-climate-plan-and-its-actually-just-the-status-quo-with-some-new-speculative-graphs
    Phil Coorey writes that Scott Morrison has challenged Labor to an election fought over climate change after unveiling a plan for net zero emissions by 2050 that relies largely on unproven or undeveloped technologies, and a contribution by every sector of the economy, including agriculture.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/bring-it-on-pm-taunts-labor-to-fight-election-over-climate-action-20211026-p5933h
    Mike Foley writes that economists are warning the federal government against picking winners as it pledges to spend at least $20 billion of taxpayer funds on a shortlist of nascent lower-emissions technologies including clean hydrogen, green steel and carbon capture and storage as it targets net zero by 2050.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/economists-warn-against-the-20bn-technology-bet-at-heart-of-net-zero-policy-20211026-p593ac.html
    Michelle Grattan says that Morrison’s net-zero plan is built more on politics than detailed policy.
    https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-morrisons-net-zero-plan-is-built-more-on-politics-than-detailed-policy-170669
    Morrison’s tech-based plan emits hope but lacks detail, writes the Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/net-zero-sum-game-morrison-s-tech-based-plan-emits-hope-but-lacks-detail-20211026-p5935m.html
    And the SMH editorial says that the PM’s net zero emissions plan is good news but we need more details.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/pm-s-net-zero-emissions-plan-is-good-news-but-we-need-more-details-20211026-p593dp.html
    Australia’s energy and emissions reduction minister, Angus Taylor, has signalled some of the trade-offs the Nationals sought from the Liberals in return for formally supporting a net zero by 2050 target have not yet been approved by the cabinet, reveal Katherine Murphy and Sarah Martin.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/27/angus-taylor-reveals-trade-offs-with-nationals-for-net-zero-support-not-yet-approved-by-cabinet
    Scott Morrison believes he now has the plan he needs to sell to the electorate on climate change, trusting in his own political instincts to find the Opposition’s jugular, writes Jennifer Hewett who says he prefers to play another game of electoral bluff with Labor, backing his own political instincts for his opponent’s jugular.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/morrison-plays-a-game-of-electoral-bluff-with-labor-20211026-p593be
    A road map without a single new policy leaves us to wonder what exactly has been going on behind closed doors in Canberra amid the 2050 target machinations, writes Steven Hamilton.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/a-prayer-not-a-plan-for-net-zero-20211026-p5939u
    “No matter how often government ministers repeat their path to net zero emissions is paved with “technology not taxes”, it is simply not true”, begins Shane Wright in this scorching assessment of “The Plan”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/taxes-rabbits-and-blank-pages-no-costed-plan-to-net-zero-yet-20211026-p5939j.html
    In a very long article, Ian Bayly tells us that the Coalition’s last-minute shift on net zero beggars belief.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7483997/coalitions-last-minute-shift-on-net-zero-beggars-belief/?cs=14264
    As usual, Chris Uhlmann comes up with a contribution critical of renewable energy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/higher-prices-and-coal-fired-power-what-a-net-zero-carbon-emissions-looks-like-in-the-act-20211026-p5934e.html
    Current commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions put the planet on track for an average 2.7 degrees Celsius temperature rise this century, a United Nations report said on Tuesday, in another stark warning ahead of crunch climate talks.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/un-warns-world-set-for-2-7-degree-rise-on-today-s-emissions-pledges-20211027-p593fh.html
    Former Nationals leader Michael McCormack has angrily confronted Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce on the floor of Federal Parliament following a series of leaks from the party’s private chat group. What a rag tag mob!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/beyond-the-pale-mccormack-confronts-joyce-over-nats-chat-leaks-20211026-p593d5.html
    Scott Morrison says his long-awaited net-zero plan will lower power bills, create 100,000 jobs, and leave Australians thousands of dollars better off by increasing the gross national income by 1.6 per cent. But his predecessor Malcolm Turnbull has been scathing of a key pillar of the plan, calling carbon capture and storage – which the government is relying on to cut emissions in manufacturing and mining – as a “con” and “distraction” by the coal industry, writes Josh Butler.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/10/26/turnbull-net-zero-plan/
    Australia is undermining the Paris Agreement, no matter what Morrison writes Peter Christoff who says we need new laws to stop the Prime Minister undermining the international treaty central to combating climate change.
    https://johnmenadue.com/australia-is-undermining-the-paris-agreement-no-matter-what-morrison-says/
    Australia’s farming sector lobby group is siding with the National Party and its reluctance to co-operate with emissions targets, writes David Paull.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/national-farmers-federation-needs-to-embrace-climate-adaption,15671
    Jhn Lord writes that “to watch Scott Morrison and other ministers doing their media rounds, they certainly sound convincing. Words fly from frequently moistened lips with the sting of dishonesty and an absence of explanation.”
    https://theaimn.com/fools-rush-in-where-wise-men-never-go/
    According to Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke, households are preparing for an acceleration in prices that could eat into their standard of living and force the Reserve Bank to re-think its plan to keep interest rates at ultra-low levels for the next three years. An ANZ-Roy Morgan survey on Tuesday showed a jump in consumers’ inflation expectations to their highest level in more than six years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/consumers-brace-for-higher-prices-as-inflation-pressures-grow-20211026-p59359.html
    Lucy Cormack reports that at ICAC yesterday, it heard that Gladys Berejiklian lied to her then-chief of staff and friend about the duration of her secret relationship with ex-MP Daryl Maguire in a private phone call more than two years before it was exposed to the public. Gladys will be appearing on Friday and Monday as it currently stands.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-lied-to-then-chief-of-staff-and-friend-about-relationship-icac-20211026-p593d4.html
    Deborah Snow goes into more detail over yesterday’s hearing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/former-staffer-s-icac-evidence-another-blow-for-gladys-berejiklian-20211026-p593dm.html
    Paul Karp reports that officials have told Senate estimates that Alan Tudge instructed staff to first consult marginal seat MPs before commuter car parks were selected, despite the former urban infrastructure minister’s claims that projects were chosen on merit.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/26/senators-hear-alan-tudge-told-staff-to-consult-marginal-seat-mps-despite-claims-car-parks-chosen-on-merit
    Victoria’s Health Minister Martin Foley said transparent decision-making was at the heart of the new legislation, but the Opposition decried it as an “incredible attack on democracy”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/draconian-government-introduces-new-pandemic-laws-into-parliament-20211026-p593ci.html
    Melissa Davies reports that GPs are being offered thousands of dollars in bribes to provide fake Covid vaccine certificates, while others have reported being abused and, in some cases, threatened by anti-vaxxers demanding doctored paperwork to overcome mandates.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/27/australian-gps-offered-bribes-for-fake-vaccine-certificates-while-others-abused-by-anti-vaxxers
    If COVID hospitalisations increase, it’s still not clear how patients will be prioritised for ICU beds writes these health experts in The Conversation. Interesting.
    https://theconversation.com/if-covid-hospitalisations-increase-its-still-not-clear-how-patients-will-be-prioritised-for-icu-beds-169948
    Ross Gittins posits on vested interests rigging the home ownership game.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/vested-interest-how-the-home-ownership-game-is-rigged-20211026-p5934h.html
    Michael Pascoe says that now the real housing affordability crisis is one of soaring rents. He points to some disturbing rental price increases.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/opinion/2021/10/27/michael-pascoe-housing-affordability-soaring-rents/
    Now it’s Liberals telling us we are going to have to cut the capital gains tax concession if we want to get Australians into homes, writes Peter Martin.
    https://theconversation.com/now-its-liberals-telling-us-we-are-going-to-have-to-cut-the-capital-gains-tax-concession-if-we-want-to-get-australians-into-homes-170555
    All voters will be asked to present identification to vote under a Morrison government bill to crack down on alleged voter fraud. Paul Karp tells us that the bill, which passed the Coalition party room on Tuesday but is yet to be introduced to parliament, will be fiercely resisted by Labor, which opposes voter ID laws because they may exclude legitimate votes.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/26/voter-identification-to-be-compulsory-under-morrison-government-proposal
    Nick Bonyhady tells us that federal regulators are nearing the end of a long-running inquiry into whether a major Australian union, whose membership includes senior Labor figures Bill Shorten and Jim Chalmers, inflated its size over many years by failing to remove unfinancial members.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/investigators-soon-to-finalise-australian-workers-union-membership-probe-20211025-p592x4.html
    Michael Fowler reports that truckloads of asbestos-ridden soil and building material are being dumped at an increasing rate on roadsides, private property and parks in Melbourne’s outer suburbs, forcing one council in the north to remove almost five shipping containers’ worth of waste over the past two months.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/truckloads-of-asbestos-ridden-soil-being-dumped-across-melbourne-20211026-p5938o.html
    Gambling researcher Charles Livingstone says that the ‘disgraceful’ Crown report lays bare failures of government.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/disgraceful-crown-report-lays-bare-failures-of-government-20211026-p5937w.html
    Lisa Visentin reports that the ABC agreed to pay reporter Louise Milligan’s personal legal costs of almost $200,000 after she was sued by federal MP Andrew Laming over a series of tweets because it feared further financial exposure and believed an apology would not settle the matter.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abc-boss-defends-decision-to-pay-louise-milligan-s-200-000-defamation-costs-20211026-p59345.html
    Adele Ferguson follows through on the cosmetic surgery story telling us that the disgraceful practitioner in the spotlight has been accused of doctoring reviews on Google.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/cosmetic-surgeon-accused-of-doctoring-reviews-on-google-20211026-p593do.html
    Laws meant to stop rogue medicos from performing complex operations while calling themselves “cosmetic surgeons” have been languishing for three years, as doctors argue over who can use the title ‘surgeon’ and work in the billion-dollar industry, write Rachel Clun and Dana Daniel.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/make-them-fess-up-laws-against-rogue-cosmetic-surgeons-have-waited-three-years-20211026-p59358.html
    The King’s School in Parramatta has broken ranks with public, Catholic and the vast majority of independent schools in Sydney by refusing to mandate masks in classrooms for secondary students. Well, they ARE a cut above us mere mortals, aren’t they?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/masks-required-for-high-school-students-except-those-at-the-king-s-school-20211026-p593af.html
    Robert Reich is concerned that Biden’s entire agenda is about to shrink into nothingness.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/26/is-bidens-entire-agenda-about-to-shrink-into-nothingness
    Arwa Mahdawi tells us why the writing is on the wall for Facebook.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/26/why-the-writing-is-on-the-wall-for-facebook
    A Lords amendment sought to stop water companies dumping raw sewage – and 265 Tories voted against it. This faecal matter has become a powerful symbol of modern Britain, writes Zoe Williams as the UK suffers the effects of broken Brexit promise.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/26/what-does-a-stream-of-raw-sewage-symbolise-broken-brexit-promises-for-one
    Chinese authorities have placed a city of 4 million people under lockdown in an attempt to wipe out a coronavirus outbreak that has threatened the country’s COVID-zero strategy. Residents in Lanzhou, north-western China, were told not to leave home except in emergencies after six cases were recorded on Tuesday. In Beijing, authorities are scrambling to lockdown apartment blocks and towns as coronavirus cases pop up across the mainland.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/thousands-in-21-day-lockdown-as-beijing-pursues-covid-zero-fortress-20211026-p5939f.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope – WOW!

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding



    Cathy Wilcox

    Fiona Katauskas

    Alan Moir


    Warren Brown

    Glen Le Lievre


    Mark Knight

    John Spooner

    Andrew Dyson

    Simon Letch

    John Shakespeare

    From the US





  18. So, the latest phrase from Morrison Inc is “we’ll do it the Australian way.” What a shonk this man is, Taylor using it at least 5 times in his interview with Kelly, on RN.

  19. Like Labor, the Greens do better in polls than actual elections. Their highest ever HOR vote was 11.76% in 2010, their next highest 10.4% in 2019 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Greens#Federal_Parliament

    The Greens are a niche product, while Labor and the Coalition split the mass market between them. I can’t see that Greens ever getting past 10-12% in the House, even if they manage to pick up a couple more seats (as they have in the NSW Legislative Assembly).

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