Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

A nudge in the wrong direction for the Coalition in the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 54-46, out from 53-47 three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (down two), Labor 38% (up one), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 3% (up one). Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 46% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on approval at 37% and down one on disapproval to 46%. Morrison leads 48-34 as preferred prime minister, out marginally from 47-34. More to follow.

UPDATE: The poll also finds 35% saying Anthony Albanese and Labor would be better at “leading Australia’s response to the global climate change crisis”, 28% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition, and 21% saying both would be equal. It also find a continuation of a significant shift on what the federal government should prioritise out of energy prices, carbon emissions and preventing blackouts, which has now been asked four times going back to 2017. From July 2018 to February 2020 to the present, the response for carbon emissions has escalated from 24% to 43% to 47%, while energy prices has declined from 63% to 42% to 40%. Preventing blackouts has been steady, going from 9% to 11% to 10%. I am not able to access a sample size of the poll because I can’t get The Australian’s online printed edition to work, but the poll will have been conducted from Wednesday to Saturday.

UPDATE 2: The sample was 1515 – the methodology statement for the poll can be viewed here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,121 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 23
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  11. Mavis says:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 9:53 pm

    mundo, how are you palpitations?
    ________________
    He’s busy staring at a half empty glass.

  14. Little wonder Morrison didn’t want to go to Glasgow. It’s time for Dutton’s shoulder tap, there being quite a few seats under threat with this 2PP. The coming election will not be C.19 related. It will be based on the corruption & ineptness of this govenment.

  16. @GhostWhoVotes
    ·
    27m
    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 46 (-2) Disapprove 50 (+1) #auspol

    The slide should increase in pace while SCOMO is in Glasgow..

  18. The times may have suited Howard, but the current times won’t suit parties that support a neoliberal agenda. Pandemic + climate change = government intervention needed to support societies and ecosystems.

  20. Looks like old Barnyard picking up Morrison and shaking millions of dollars out of him over climate change hasn’t done the coalition any good at all

  22. ”
    Mavissays:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 9:53 pm
    mundo, how are you palpitations?
    ”

    mundo is keeping us grounded. He is trying to keep our beating hearts still. 🙂

  23. The Federal Government’s lowest level of support in 3 years. That takes us back to the months following Turnbull’s ouster. The Government recovered with the help of Palmer and the mainstream media. Labour was leading 54-46 in the leadup to Christmas 2018. Labor needs to campaign like it’s 50-50.

  24. I guess this finally puts to bed any thought of an election this year. The government is clearly behind, with now several Newspolls giving Labor a significant lead, and the margin if anything is getting larger. We shouldn’t, of course, put too much stock in a single poll, but it’s now been three or four months since the government has been anywhere near competitive in the 2PP, though the primaries haven’t moved that much, with the Coalition somewhere in the 35-38 range, the ALP something similar, and the Greens pulling their standard 10%. There’s still time for the Libs to recover, but the window is starting to close on them. They will be wanting to see some sort of movement toward them in the new year, otherwise we’re looking at another May election.

    It will interesting to see the next Newspoll state break-down. Presumably Labor will be picking up 2-3 seats in WA, maybe another 1-2 in both Victoria and Queensland, with another in Tassie. That’s about a net 7 seats for the good guys, which would be (just) enough for the ALP to form government, but all eyes will be on NSW, where Morrison seems to think that he has a chance of snatching a few Labor marginals and hold on to minority government. My best guess is that the government is struggling as much in the premier state as anywhere else, and is as likely to lose seats in NSW as gain any, and I’m yet to see much in the way of recent polling which suggests that NSW will be some sort of hold out.

    I think, as things stand right now, that Labor is on track to win at least ten seats nationwide, and with it a narrow but perfectly decent working majority.

  25. ”
    Mavissays:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 10:24 pm
    The last date to call an election is May, 21. Those who contend that Murdoch’s still factor may need to reassess.
    ”

    Mavis
    IMO, Murdoch is still a factor. Why?
    If Murdoch hacks put the real facts on front pages and stop advertising for Palmer these numbers may stabilise at these levels.

  27. Interesting that Resolve hasn’t put out a poll for a while. Are they revising their methodology, given their curious results compared with other pollsters?

    While the margins look good for the ALP currently, it’s still a question of which seats will they win… WA and Qld will most likely swing back from the last election, how many seats will that translate into?

  28. Murdoch going for the glass half full approach:

    “As bad as the polls may seem, Scott Morrison finds himself in an almost identical position to where he was prior to the 2019 election.” (Oz headline)

  29. One wonders how Bridgey’s latest squeeze Benson spins this.
    “Morrison increases lead as preferred PM as 2PP remains stable”.

  30. ”
    Fulvio Sammutsays:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 9:57 pm
    I’ll wait to see the state by state breakdowns in due course.
    ”

    FS
    I want see break down of UAP in each state. This is too importance given to Palmer and Craig Kelly. They are actually targeting the low lifes and primal fear of of Australian society.

  31. There are 3 reasons why the current situation is different from 2019: Shorten, Franking Credits and Negative Gearing.

    There is a long way to go in this race, but as PJK famously observed, a souffle doesn’t rise twice.

  32. ”
    Steve777says:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 10:25 pm
    The Federal Government’s lowest level of support in 3 years. That takes us back to the months following Turnbull’s ouster. The Government recovered with the help of Palmer and the mainstream media. Labour was leading 54-46 in the leadup to Christmas 2018. Labor needs to campaign like it’s 50-50.
    ”

    IMO, ALP did not start the campaign at all. They left the field completely to LNP for the time being.
    When will the preselection of Gilmore happen?

  33. citizen @ #28 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 10:31 pm

    Murdoch going for the glass half full approach:

    “As bad as the polls may seem, Scott Morrison finds himself in an almost identical position to where he was prior to the 2019 election.” (Oz headline)

    Are they are claiming that Newspoll is still as far out as it was last time?

    A bit odd? Very Murdoch.

  34. There are 3 reasons why the current situation is different from 2019: Shorten, Franking Credits and Negative Gearing.

    There’s also a fourth – the polls back then, for whatever reason, were wrong. Hopefully that’s been fixed as well.

    Franking Credits and Negative Gearing: good policy, if badly sold. Labor should just do it when safely in office, maybe in their second term.

    Shorten – never understood his unpopularity, he’s OK, but he’s had two goes.

  35. If neither of Biden and Trump were inspiring, why was the voter turnout where it was – noting voting is not compulsory in the USA?

    And how many more people voted for Biden than Trump?

    So Trump got out his base – including by reference to Democratic appointments to the judiciary (so decisions on subjects such as abortion, voting rights et al attracting the fundamental religious vote)

    But it was Red States versus Blue States (look at the voting map)

    And the Blue team took back the States which gave Trump the Electoral College vote over Clinton, reversing the result of the previous election

    So Trump not only got his base out

    He also got the Democratic vote out

    Morrison has his base – I think by now well identified and well entrenched, possibly with no ability to increase that base (Regional Queensland at the high water mark along with WA?)

    It is how many of the rest of us have seen and heard him enough

    Starting from both sides having 30% rusted on (confirmed in WA where the Liberals were left with their rusted on voters – and no one else)

    Morrison has the advantage of being the incumbent – which is always an advantage by some magnitude

    But that can be a two edged sword, where personality and presentation negates pork barrel, a pork barrel compromised by past pork barrelling

    No doubt tax cuts will make an appearance, as always

  36. Ven:

    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 10:25 pm
    ”
    Mavis:

    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 9:53 pm
    mundo, how are you palpitations?
    ”

    [‘mundo is keeping us grounded. He is trying to keep our beating hearts still. ‘]

    I think mundo’s heart’s in the right place but he shares the same
    negativity as dear Singing Coot, both of whom should be elated by this 2PP but probably won’t be. Poor polling makes the back-bench very nervous, leading to leadership instability. When all’s said, the electorate seems to have seen through the flim flam man. Pepys.

  37. Re Ven @10:41 “IMO, ALP did not start the campaign at all. They left the field completely to LNP for the time being.”

    The Labor campaign was very poor. They had nothing to counter the all too predictable attacks and lies, especially regarding Franking Credits, Negative Gearing and Climate.

  38. ”
    citizensays:
    Sunday, October 24, 2021 at 10:31 pm
    Murdoch going for the glass half full approach:

    “As bad as the polls may seem, Scott Morrison finds himself in an almost identical position to where he was prior to the 2019 election.” (Oz headline)
    ”

    So Murdoch still believes LNP can win. That was not the case in 2007. Except for Dennis Shanahan, who thought Howard could win with 2PP of as low as 47.3, others were sanguine about ALP victory.

  42. The Labor campaign was very poor.

    Shorten’s “next they’ll be telling you Labor plan to introduce a death tax” gaffe was abysmal.

  43. One interesting thing about the great 2019 poll failure is that it came after two state elections where the polls were also way off, Vic ’18 and NSW ’19. In the state elections since then, they’ve been pretty much on the money.

  44. It will interesting to see the next Newspoll state break-down. Presumably Labor will be picking up 2-3 seats in WA, maybe another 1-2 in both Victoria and Queensland, with another in Tassie. That’s about a net 7 seats for the good guys, which would be (just) enough for the ALP to form government, but all eyes will be on NSW, where Morrison seems to think that he has a chance of snatching a few Labor marginals and hold on to minority government. My best guess is that the government is struggling as much in the premier state as anywhere else, and is as likely to lose seats in NSW as gain any, and I’m yet to see much in the way of recent polling which suggests that NSW will be some sort of hold out.

    I think, as things stand right now, that Labor is on track to win at least ten seats nationwide, and with it a narrow but perfectly decent working majority.

    Then Newspoll numbers are crap then. Because it can’t be 54 – 46 to Labor and then Labor only wins by 3 seats with a tally of 78 seats. When the pendulum moves like that seats for the Liberals have to start falling.

    Kevin Rudd has warned though that I think the Liberals were able to make up 2% point in the last week of the 2007 federal election campaign. Which stopped Kevin Rudd’s win being bigger then it could have been. It seems there is are a lot of nervous nellies out there which Scott Morrison will be targeting. Who are apprehensive electing a Labor government federally.

  47. citizen @ #28 Sunday, October 24th, 2021 – 10:01 pm

    Murdoch going for the glass half full approach:

    “As bad as the polls may seem, Scott Morrison finds himself in an almost identical position to where he was prior to the 2019 election.” (Oz headline)

    Good. Let them say that. It’ll make the Coalition overconfident and keep Labor grounded.

    One element of 2007 I think we overlook is how much of the year many in the Coalition (or supporters thereof) were certain Rudd’s shine would wipe off by the time of the election, in a repeat of 2004. And how many people on the Labor side also had that concern on the back of their minds.

  48. Kevin Rudd has warned though that I think the Liberals were able to make up 2% point in the last week of the 2007 federal election campaign.

    I remember that. The polls were predicting a landslide which ended up a comfortable win. Labor does better in polls than elections. I discount Labor 2PP in polls by 2%.

  49. So who will be the first to move on Morrison, Dutton or Frydenberg?

    Peter Dutton only moved on Malcolm Turnbull because he thought he was certain to lose his seat with him as Prime Minister. That’s why he did it as he had nothing to lose. I haven’t seen evidence that Labor has made strong inroads into Queensland via the polling yet.

    Both parties are now probably over with the challenges for the time being. There has been countless and countless predictions on here suggesting Shorten and Albanese leadership will be rolled. That have never eventuated to anything.

    It may be fun to post these taunts. But whether it’s realistic is another thing.

  50. A problem for the Government is that the international community is taking away one of its most successful weapons just before an election.

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