I have conducted a repeat of the exercise from my previous post on the Senate results, which involved taking random samples of the ballot papers from the 2022 election, weighting them to match the various players’ shares of the first preference vote at this election, and simulating preference distributions in which flows behave as they did in 2022. This is a simplified approximation of the process, so what might be referred to below as “Count 72” would be a lot higher by the AEC’s reckoning, but more than adequate for current purposes.
There are two important differences from the first run, the most obvious being that it’s based off a more advanced stage of the count. The other is that I have factored in changes in how-to-vote cards at this election, at least for the major parties (minor party how-to-vote cards are rarely followed, and changes unlikely to amount to much when considered in aggregate). This was mainly deemed necessary because the Coalition was a lot more amenable to One Nation than in the past, although the (electoral) significance of this should not be overstated — impacts are trivial where Liberal candidates are elected with only small surpluses, as is invariably the case when they themselves are elected off the preferences of other parties, and non-existent when they remain to the final count. The former applies in New South Wales and South Australia, where the Coalition will respectively win two seats from a shade over and a shade under two quotas on first preferences, and the latter applies in Tasmania.
My overall assessment is unchanged, the modelled result being Labor 30, Coalition 27, Greens 11 and One Nation two, plus Ralph Babet, Jacqui Lambie, Tammy Tyrell, Lidia Thorpe, Fatima Payman and David Pocock. However, the already live possibility of One Nation taking Labor’s third seat in Western Australia now looks stronger. I don’t believe the boost to One Nation from Coalition preferences puts them in serious contention in Victoria, and it affects only the size of their winning margin in Queensland. Nor do I think it likely that Jacqui Lambie will lose her seat, notwithstanding The Australian’s contention yesterday that her “folly” in attacking Tasmania’s salmon farming industry “may cost her political career”.
New South Wales
Count 1 | Quotas | Swing | Count 72 | Count 73 | |
ALP | 37.77% | 2.644 | +7.34% | 0.803 | 0.892 |
LNC | 29.63% | 2.074 | -7.09% | ||
GRN | 11.16% | 0.781 | -0.30% | 0.973 | 1.068 |
ON | 6.03% | 0.422 | +1.91% | 0.692 | 0.780 |
LC | 3.39% | 0.237 | +0.78% | 0.379 |
My earlier projection here of three Labor, two Coalition and one Greens doesn’t seem to be in doubt. Since the Coalition scrapes over the line for a second quota on primary votes, what happens with their preferences matters little — where previously I had Labor winning the last seat ahead of One Nation by 0.938 quotas to 0.771, I now have it at 0.892 to 0.780, and I expect most of the change is due to shifts in party vote shares over the past week.
Victoria
Count 1 | Quotas | Swing | Count 73 | Count 74 | Count 75 | Count 76 | Count 77 | Count 78 | |
ALP | 34.79% | 2.435 | +3.34% | 0.506 | 0.515 | 0.572 | 0.606 | 0.692 | 0.850 |
LNC | 31.77% | 2.224 | -0.52% | 0.292 | 0.293 | 0.308 | 0.342 | ||
GRN | 12.31% | 0.862 | -1.54% | 1.019 | |||||
ON | 4.44% | 0.311 | +1.53% | 0.412 | 0.412 | 0.426 | 0.558 | 0.683 | 0.763 |
LC | 3.56% | 0.249 | +0.55% | 0.319 | 0.320 | 0.370 | 0.399 | 0.453 | |
ToP | 2.52% | 0.176 | -1.49% | 0.244 | 0.244 | 0.260 | |||
AJP | 1.56% | 0.109 | +0.04% | 0.174 | 0.179 |
After the election of two Labor, two Coalition and one Greens, I now have the third Labor candidate’s lead over One Nation at 0.850 to 0.763 with the amendment of Coalition votes that followed the card, as compared with 0.740 to 0.608 in the first run. One Nation now gains 0.125 when the Liberal is excluded, compared with 0.060 previously. However, Labor has gained nearly as much since last time, for one reason or another, and a One Nation win would have to be rated unlikely.
Queensland
Count 1 | Quotas | Swing | Count 78 | |
ALP | 30.67% | 2.147 | +4.01% | |
LNP | 31.36% | 2.195 | -6.68% | |
GRN | 10.29% | 0.720 | -3.09% | 0.993 |
ON | 7.05% | 0.494 | -0.94% | 0.748 |
GRPF | 4.63% | 0.324 | 0.468 |
This appears clear cut, with both Labor and the Coalition a bit above two quotas and no chance of a amassing a third, leaving the other two seats to go to the Greens and One Nation. A joint ticket for Gerard Rennick and Katter’s Australian Party scored a solid 4.63%, which I dealt with by substituting it for the United Australia Party in the 2022 party data, such that it gave and received the same preferences flows. No doubt this is imprecise, but the margins involved are such that it doesn’t matter much.
Western Australia
Count 1 | Quotas | Swing | Count 54 | Count 55 | Count 56 | Count 57 | |
ALP | 36.49% | 2.555 | +1.94% | 0.642 | 0.654 | 0.720 | 0.869 |
LNC | 30.31% | 2.122 | -1.36% | ||||
GRN | 12.78% | 0.895 | -1.47% | 1.017 | |||
ON | 5.87% | 0.411 | +2.38% | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.746 | 0.852 |
LC | 3.94% | 0.276 | +0.56% | 0.399 | 0.402 | 0.416 | |
AUC | 2.64% | 0.185 | +0.47% | 0.253 | 0.253 |
I continue to project a result of Labor three, Liberal two and Greens one, but incorporating One Nation into the Liberal how-to-vote card order makes a close race even closer. The operative margin between the third Labor candidate and One Nation at the close is now 0.869 to 0.852, in from 0.872 to 0.825 the first time. I have factored in that Liberal how-to-vote cards varied from seat to seat in 2022 depending on how it was thought a recommendation for One Nation would play with local voters (a source of much thundering outrage from elements of the media when Labor did something similar with the Greens at this election), and am indebted to Kevin Bonham for recording the variants from 2022.
South Australia
Count 1 | Quotas | Swing | Count 44 | Count 45 | Count 46 | Count 47 | Count 48 | Count 49 | Count 50 | |
ALP | 38.38% | 2.687 | +6.12% | 0.704 | 0.706 | 0.723 | 0.730 | 0.852 | 0.944 | 0.995 |
LIB | 27.77% | 1.944 | -6.16% | 1.013 | ||||||
GRN | 12.73% | 0.891 | +0.78% | 0.996 | 0.998 | 1.011 | ||||
ON | 5.26% | 0.368 | +1.25% | 0.415 | 0.420 | 0.470 | 0.470 | 0.504 | 0.551 | 0.749 |
ToP | 2.80% | 0.196 | -0.23% | 0.228 | 0.228 | 0.262 | 0.262 | 0.286 | 0.330 | |
LC | 2.77% | 0.194 | +0.45% | 0.232 | 0.233 | 0.240 | 0.242 | 0.263 | ||
JLN | 2.71% | 0.189 | +0.63% | 0.219 | 0.220 | 0.233 | 0.233 | |||
FFP | 1.99% | 0.139 | +1.56% | 0.157 | 0.158 |
Here the Liberals scrape over the line to a quota at a late stage of the count, meaning their preferences for One Nation are of limited consequence. Previously I had the third Labor candidate’s winning margin over One Nation at the final count at 1.029 quotas to 0.743, now it’s 0.995 to 0.749. Here I used Bob Day’s independent candidacy in 2022 as a stand-in for Family First and the Rex Patrick Team for the Jacqui Lambie Network.
Tasmania
Count 1 | Quotas | Swing | Count 36 | Count 37 | |
ALP | 35.53% | 2.487 | +8.55% | 0.761 | 0.874 |
LIB | 23.67% | 1.657 | -8.28% | 0.793 | 0.922 |
GRN | 16.14% | 1.130 | +0.70% | ||
JLN | 7.25% | 0.508 | -1.37% | 0.785 | 1.001 |
ON | 5.08% | 0.356 | +1.21% | 0.596 |
Beyond a clear two seats for Labor and one each for Liberal and the Greens, The Australian rates this a “tight, four-way preference contest” between Labor’s third, the Liberals’ second, Jacqui Lambie and Lee Hanson of One Nation. I consider this generous to Hanson, who does not stand to benefit from Liberal preferences as she will be excluded while the second Liberal remains in the count. I then have the third Labor candidate losing the game of musical chairs to the other two, but if the primary vote swings are reflected in preference flows stronger for Labor and weaker for Liberal, the modelled gap of 0.922 to 0.874 is narrow enough that Labor might win a third seat at the expense of the Liberals’ second (conversely, a weakening in support for Lambie among conservatives might mean stronger flows from One Nation to Liberal). The Australian makes some notable points about the pattern of Jacqui Lambie’s 7.3% vote, which is down from 8.9% when she last ran in 2019 and the 8.6% her party’s ticket scored in her absence in 2022. Support for Lambie went up in the city and down in the country, and slumped in salmon farming towns. However, my model has her on over a quota in the three-way race with 1.001 quotas, meaning she would have to fall behind both Liberal on 0.922 and Labor on 0.874 to lose. This doesn’t seem likely even allowing for the principle that a lower primary vote means weaker preferences, particularly considering such an effect would harm the Liberals at least as much.