The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has One Nation widening a primary vote lead by holding steady on 30% while Labor falls two to 27%, and the Coalition and the Greens remain unchanged at 19% and 13% respectively. Anthony Albanese is down two on disapproval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 62%. The one indication Pauline Hanson has been harmed by recent bad press is her personal ratings, with approval down three to 44% and disapproval up three to 51%. Of Angus Taylor we are told only that his net rating has improved from minus 17 to minus 15, but he has almost closed the gap on head-to-head preferred prime minister, on which Albanese’s lead has narrowed from to 44-35 to 42-41. The three-way measure has Albanese down two to 44%, Hanson up one to 32% and Taylor up one to 24%. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1244.
Knifing leaders will just continue until politics becomes coherent. It’s just par for the course at this point.
Albo still has a way to go before reaching the lows of Gillard in terms of primary and net sat.
These interest rate rises will really hurt.
If Pauline becomes PM she’d probably appoint Big Gina as the Governor General. Or one of her yes-men.
I’d argue change of leadership isn’t so much the problem, William, as the mechanism of the change of leadership.
The reason why democracy is the best form of government is because it makes political leaders disposable.
Governor General? I’m pretty certain Gina would be expecting an appointment as God.
We’re the best part of two years out from an election. Labor is heading into what may be the low point of the political cycle, with plenty of scope to offer election sweeteners – likely substantial income tax cuts – in 2028. Whatever its economic merits, the Coalition’s tax indexation policy could become a political straitjacket, making it harder to match Labor’s headline promises. The more nuanced case for indexation will be drowned out in the campaign noise.
Of course, much will depend on external factors that are extremely difficult to predict. By 2028, we should have a much clearer sense of where the AI story is heading: boom and abundance, bust and global recession, or perhaps it will have killed us all. Trump, if he’s still alive, will be a decrepit lame duck with a toxic politcal brand. Who the hell knows what will be happening with interest rates, but more likely than not they’ll be on the way back down in 2028 (albeit with higher unemployment to boot).
Energy prices should also be working in Labor’s favour. Renewable energy and batteries should deliver tangibly lower bills by 2028, neutralising ON and the Coalition on energy and that part of the COL debate. Uncertainty and price shocks associated with coal plant closures will largely be a problem for the following term.
Come on. BRS will be GG.
Maybe Albo should go full Mark Carney, grow a pair and take Trump head on.
Strange how the right wing populist bug has never caught on in Canada or NZ.
But wombat the thing that Williams trying to get at and if I’m wrong I’m sorry is that it’s not a good look for Labor to knife someone this far out because governments do go through bad spots also with how people acting one nation should be romping at home but it’s not and I think a one nation government probably is one that’s not going to last because well I don’t think everyone that votes for one nation is racist or stupid that’s why I think the whole far right of one nation’s probably gonna be in a surprise if they do get in but that’s my opinion
GovNerd Labor has time and also one nation honestly should be probably doing better in the polls than they are like they’re only hitting 30 when in all honesty they should probably be in the high 30s or low 40s
While the circumstances are no doubt not directly comparable, I noted this week that Carney (it may have just been one poll) has an approval rating of 70%.
TM:
I’d be astonished if more than 5% of the population had even heard of that incident, let alone gave a shit.
It’d the economy, stupid.
Here’s a scary thing. I just used AI for a summary of the current state of polling and politics in Australia, and it basically quoted this thread back to me, including my own comments.
We are definitely all going to die.
I think Carney is the type of leader people want. Informed, authentic and no BS. Good on Canada.
Does anyone remember the polling reaction to Morrison after he doubled jobseeker?
If my memory is correct Morrison had a poll bounce.
Asha
A large percentage of ON voters were Liberal and National voters, but the polling is picking up the normal second term drop in support for the government, worsened by COL. Pollsters like Kos Samaras say only about half of ON’s vote is solid, telling me the government has to address COL for households and business. Welfare payments have a roll to play as do employment opportunities.
Are we just going to have an eternal merry-go-round of Prime Ministers in Australia now?
Petrol prices are no doubt playing a part — they’re well on their back way to the peak before the excise was cut in April.
It’s the same reason Trump is on the nose in the US. 100 shocking and outrageous things can happen in a month of politics and not one of them will have the same political impact as an extra 25¢ on the gallon.
Carney was also somewhat of an outsider, whilst simultaneously having a very impressive CV. He was appointed to the Bank of Canada by Stephen Harper, and was asked to move into cabinet by Harper. Harper and Carney have had their falling outs, but currently they are again very much singing from the same hymn sheet. I couldn’t think of anyone in Australia similar.
Thomas Brian Mutter yes because apparently that does not erode the trust of a political party seriously like honestly I thought it’d be worse for labour it seriously only a couple of points off one nation that they need to get
I am not advocating changing PMs but, if you were to push that button in these circumstances, Chalmers would not be the answer. If people are feeling like their PM is out of touch and the cost of living is becoming too much, what makes you think they’ll be warm to the Treasurer who has presided over and been central to the “Tighten your belts” messaging.
It would have to be someone on the outside who doesn’t have the stink of this government on them who has enough relatability to re-connect with said voters and convincingly sell that the government is re-adjusting its course to focus on the “issues that matter” again. And emphasis on relatability, not just generic “charisma”. Some well-groomed, well-spoken politician who has the charm of an insurance salesperson who political addicts think will successfully manipulate the population is not it.
Unfortunately, the very closed club political system we have makes it very hard for such a figure to rise to the top.
I think that might have had more to do with the Pandemic that was happening at the time and people rallying behind their leader in such a scary time.
A lot of posters here would make much better PM’s but they could never play the game.
Wat Tyler
That was differently a factor.
Wat Tyler the thing is right I think one nation’s at a ceiling where it’s around 30% so I think Labour’s got that honestly I don’t think you want a knife a leader because well it just doesn’t look good and also lab is being in a worse position before the election also if one nation does get in I think half of the people in that party is probably gonna be independent or go to labour and liberal because with how she wants a party and how there has to be compromises yeah ego gets the better of people
By the way, I am not shooting down the idea of raising welfare rates. They are disgustingly low and inhumane considering the cost of everything (and no, the biannual automatically indexed few bucks a fortnight increase doesn’t count) but let’s not pretend it would dig Labor out of any polling holes. If anything, it just would fuel downward resentment, unless it were a part of a broader cost of living measures.
mjsays:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 10:36 pm
A lot of posters here would make much better PM’s
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Absolutely, particularly me.
Landlord:
The early stages of the pandemic were a pretty unique time. A large section of the population was facing the possibility of losing their jobs, an outcome that could have devastated the economy.
Right now we have very low unemployment, and while I personally sympathise with the plight of those on JobSeeker, I suspect the reaction of much of the population to the stories we see in the media about the struggles of the unemployed would be to tell them to get a job.
Wat Tyler
It would have to be part of a wider reform program to tackle issues across the economy and labour market.
“Maybe Albo should go full Mark Carney, grow a pair and take Trump head on.”
________
For what purpose? Australia has in the past 9 months implemented at least 2 digital taxes that almost entirely target US businesses (news bargaining and local content); and spearheaded regulation changes being adopted globally that also almost entirely targets US businesses (under 16s social media ban, and upcoming reg on digital duty of care). We even had the fake “beef trade liberalisation”, which resulted in … statistically insignificant trade in US beef to Australia.
https://www.beefcentral.com/news/us-beef-exports-to-australia-barely-raise-a-blip-on-the-radar/
The Australian government has done far more to hurt US global business interests than anything Canada has done, especially with the digital reg stuff.
And the blowback for all this has been pretty minimal, anti-trade measures at no additional rate than any other country.
I’d suggest initiating a diplomatic spat with the USA for zero economic gain would not be the best use of the current Government’s time.
Asha
Government could use it to wedge ON, if ON tells people to get a job, the government can run the line, how do you get the disabled a job without a DEI program.
@Landlord
Then Pauline would just say “Well they can still stack the lower shelves can’t they?” and the zombies shambling to vote for her no matter what would cheer raspily.
Wat Tylersays:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 10:41 pm
By the way, I am not shooting down the idea of raising welfare rates. They are disgustingly low and inhumane considering the cost of everything (and no, the biannual automatically indexed few bucks a fortnight increase doesn’t count) but let’s not pretend it would dig Labor out of any polling holes. If anything, it just would fuel downward resentment, unless it were a part of a broader cost of living measures.
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It would be stupendously inflationary. Its not even dollars and cents – none of the ideas to fund (taxes) it are deflationary (some are in fact inflationary, like cancelling the fuel tax credit).
Under current economic circumstances, the consumption of millions of other Aussies would have to fall significantly to offset it.
***
“Does anyone remember the polling reaction to Morrison after he doubled jobseeker?”
That was when the borders were shut and a range of factors where highly deflationary- yeah childcare was made free, but global fuel prices went negative and you couldn’t give the stuff away.
You can say what you like about the current ALP but they are not stupid.
There will be no change of leadership – nor should there be. Albo has 94 seats – all he has to do is govern.
And these numbers while dire, don’t yet support a change of government. As noted above the trend is not great but it’s mid term. So much water to go under the bridge.
I’m not sure Albo is excited about prospective rate increases but.
Also, I am not adverse to the idea that a substantial increase to Jobseeker should come with more activity. While I don’t want it to be anything punitive, designed to be failed or hollow busy work for the sake of it, I think it’s fair that unemployed people are required to be busy with their efforts (whether applying for work, training or what have you), so they don’t fall into the trap of becoming unmotivated and sedentary.
While I know some will roll their eyes at my comment and think I am channelling my inner-John Howard, I’ve been on the dole, I’ve known people who’ve been on the dole (both in my private life and working in employment services) and, while the stereotype of the “dole bludger” is mostly a myth (there are a few bad eggs), bad habits do get formed and it’s not a good idea to encourage it.
Landlord:
Sure, the govenment could run that line, but I doubt many people considering a vote for One Nation are going to give a shit.
I think you are seriously misunderstanding what is driving lower income Australians to the populist right. I feel like the less well-off people leaning towards One Nation are largely the working poor struggling under rising rents, fuel prices, and cost of living، not those on JobSeeker.
Wat:
Agreed!
Wat Tylersays:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 10:59 pm
Also, I am not adverse to the idea that a substantial increase to Jobseeker should come with more activity. While I don’t want it to be anything punitive, designed to be failed or hollow busy work for the sake of it, I think it’s fair that unemployed people are required to be busy with their efforts (whether applying for work, training or what have you), so they don’t fall into the trap of becoming unmotivated and sedentary.
___________
Perhaps mandatory weekly jogging events to avoid sedentary habits developing.
Ashasays:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 10:45 pm
Right now we have very low unemployment, and while I personally sympathise with the plight of those on JobSeeker, I suspect the reaction of much of the population to the stories we see in the media about the struggles of the unemployed would be to tell them to get a job.
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We really don’t. What we have is 1 to 2 % of the working age population who are more or less permanently unemployable, but who don’t qualify for disability so are stuck on the dole, and another 20% or more churning through an endless cycle of insecure, poorly paid casual jobs and periods of unemployment
All of these people rely on welfare at some point every few years and all of them are scared shitless of getting fired, because the consequences are catastrophic.
It would be very interesting to know how many of those people plan on voting for Pauline too, but I imagine it is a lot.
Ashasays:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 11:05 pm
Wat:
Agreed!
________
Not agreed.
Personally I couldn’t care if people on the dole go surfing and sit on a beach all week.
If they can survive on that money, good luck to em.
The Treasurer should use whatever authority he has to force the Reserve Bank Governor to shut her cake-hole and keep it shut too. Every time she opens her mouth something bad comes out, and the working poor are the ones who suffer the most for shit that isn’t their fault, when she does.
Which reminds me when I was on the dole as an 18 year old and they pulled me to give me a case manager.
Well, they didn’t realize who they were dealing with. I went in there and acted like I was mentally slow. Glacier type slow. Anyway, they put me in the too hard basket, left me alone and I was able to chill all summer rooting and smoking chuff.
Honestly I also don’t want to hear talk of changing a leader because we all know what happened when Labor did that in 2010 it’s better to ride storm out honestly how one nation is as a party I’m wonder if the problem is going to be that they’re gonna get people in who are that insane or just using them to get into Parliament and also Hansen’s habit of being the dictator because apparently there’s a rumor going around that Gina knows how one nation goes and is only using them to get the liberals to back her
There reasons why Canada didn’t get a RW Populist Wave
– Civic nationalism is stronger there since there is a belief there that is was civics that united English and French Speaking residents
– Canada RW Nationalist would likely need to contend in appeasing Ontario, Western Provinces. Quebec and Atlantic Canada into the movement (looks very hard to appeal to all due to strong regional differences) plus RW Nationalist there bootlick to US Right-wing Interest rather than their own backyard.
– Canada seems to celebrate cultural diversity as their national identity unlike Australia where we treat Anglo-Celtic as the default and our minorities are treated at best condiments but mostly in practice perpetual foreigners
– Canada kind of got its own taste of the RW Populist Movement but with Pierre Poilievre leading the Tories which became an algorithm from 2023-early 2025 due to anti-Trudeau sentiment (looks very similar to anti-Jacinta Allan) but it fell down significantly due to Trump and people just gotten sick of it. So really they experienced it and found it was negative.
– More importantly Canada is more diverse and diversified early on meaning non-white communities are more established (especially in Toronto and Vancouver where Non-Whites are a majority) so there is a view there that really no point of return. Australia is different as our minorities descended much more recently with Australia being 90% White during the turn of the century and even Sydney is still Majority White so there is noticeably more ‘hope’ among nationalist and conservatives to reverse multiculturalism in Australia.
Doesn’t seem to be much comment on where the LNP vote is?
Why is that?
Australia and Australians are victims of international happenings which are beyond their control
Australia located where it is and with a small population does not set the international agenda
The government is about governing – the non government parties about playing politics
You can’t blame the RBA chairperson for trying to fulfill her mandate of maintaining sustainable inflation.
nathsays:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 11:10 pm
Well, they didn’t realize who they were dealing with. I went in there and acted like I was mentally slow. Glacier type slow. Anyway, they put me in the too hard basket, left me alone and I was able to chill all summer rooting and smoking chuff.
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Sometimes my entire dole payment went on weed. The old CES would very kindly provide multiple copies of the yellow pages so it was nice and easy to ‘apply’ for the 2 jobs a fortnight that no one ever bothered checking. Life was much better when nobody gave a fuck.
Sometimes my entire dole payment went on weed. The old CES would very kindly provide multiple copies of the yellow pages so it was nice and easy to ‘apply’ for the 2 jobs a fortnight that nobody ever bothered checking. Life was much better when nobody gave a fuck.
__________
I still remember the same 2 businesses I would write down every time. The Crusty Loaf Bakery and S&M Leather Inc.
Neither of which existed ofc.
https://youtu.be/PvSYHvY9tp8?si=27P3iCKsn5Q7ssbP&t=42
I don’t get it. I never stripped!