The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has One Nation widening a primary vote lead by holding steady on 30% while Labor falls two to 27%, and the Coalition and the Greens remain unchanged at 19% and 13% respectively. Anthony Albanese is down two on disapproval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 62%. The one indication Pauline Hanson has been harmed by recent bad press is her personal ratings, with approval down three to 44% and disapproval up three to 51%. Of Angus Taylor we are told only that his net rating has improved from minus 17 to minus 15, but he has almost closed the gap on head-to-head preferred prime minister, on which Albanese’s lead has narrowed from to 44-35 to 42-41. The three-way measure has Albanese down two to 44%, Hanson up one to 32% and Taylor up one to 24%. The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1244.
Shit.
AND IN terms of 2PP?
Is this poll really the portent of Australia’s political armageddon?
Or is it all just smoke and mirrors?
The Wombat says:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 9:12 pm
Both Albanese and Taylor need to go. The Coalition has Hastie, but i can’t see that the ALP has an obvious solution.
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Why would Taylor need to go.
42 v 41
A primary vote of 19% and stuck there.
I’m not a fan of Angus Taylor (or Jane Hume), but he’s been much better than I expected. But he just doesn’t seem to be able to cut through. He looks too much like previous Liberal leaders, he’s very “grey”, meh as my son would say. Hastie is immediately obviously a very different kind of politician. But he also takes the Coalition in a sovereignty over economics direction, and my feeling is this is an increasingly important consideration for Australians.
I still think the forthcoming Victorian election will be somewhat of a reality check for ON – I think they will win at most 5 lower house seats out of 88. Probably not enough to stop the Coalition winning a majority.
I know it’s a state election but the way people are talking up ON in Victoria some obviously believe they will be the major partner in a right wing government.
I forgot to mention that if Albo’s disapproval rating is 60% or higher, he loses the Charismatic Incumbent key.
Odds that it goes back below 60?
MABWMsays:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 9:18 pm
AND IN terms of 2PP?
Is this poll really the portent of Australia’s political armageddon?
Or is it all just smoke and mirrors?
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Well the trend is not great.
This before 3 more rate rises and a serious uptick in unemployment.
John Howard’s personal ratings in early 2001:
Given Newspoll no longer publishes a 2PP, I’ll have a rough guess.
* ALP 27
+ 30% LNP = 5.7
+ 90% GRN = 11.7
+ 55% Oth = 6.05
ALP 2PP = 50.45%
Because the party he is leading is on track to be reduced to minor party status.
Arange says:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 9:21 pm
I forgot to mention that if Albo’s disapproval rating is 60% or higher, he loses the Charismatic Incumbent key.
Odds that it goes back below 60?
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His ratings are back to where they were in early June.
He hit “60” on a Newspoll and YouGov around that time (refer BT leadership ratings tab).
Bit surprised he’s copped the blowback given events this past 3 weeks.
Posters here have a split view over the Hastie v Hanson affair, but most here would agree the attack on Albo’s mother and the primitives comment were fairly “B” grade. Not too sure why Albo has copped the poll smack tonight unless there is an element in the community who deeply despise him and their opinion can’t be budged.
How about 6 million dollars on the local golf club?
nadia
All roads to the economy and COL.
The trend is clear.
Labor and the Coalition are failing miserably.
There needs to be change at the top.
nadiasays:
Not too sure why Albo has copped the poll smack tonight
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He’s just not a great politician. I personally like him and think he’s a fairly good PM but he’s not brilliant.
One thing he does have on his side is luck. Which is why I call him Gladstone Gander.
So what labour should do is kick out abbo even know where nearly 18 months out of an election yeah maybe none of you guys should offer tips to labour
Personally I’ve stopped listening to Albo. I don’t hate him I just see him as a bit of a nothingburger.
You can’t just change the leadership, you need someone who doesn’t look like they are the product of the party machinery. The Coalition have a ready made solution in Andrew Hastie. But the ALP really only have the products of the machine, and even where you do have some less establishment options, they party machinery is going to make sure they don’t get a look in.
He did well in the internal game to eventually become the leader of the Labor party.
But that’s where it ends.
Being PM is a whole different ball game. He’s not good at it.
The Wombat also the polling here is not that bad like you think one nation would be in the high 30 it’s just honestly I think we’re probably gonna see all the major parties which one nation now is around the the high 20s low 30s also getting rid of Anthony when he LED them to Landslide win like I think when Labor wins next election they’ll Anthony will probably leave
Yep, Rex, more than politics itself is broken at the moment, it’s actually the internal politics of the parties of government that’s broken.
Who was the last good PM in your estimation, Rex?
So who’s going to replace Anthony right because I remember this conversation Late 2024 early 2025 when he was against Peter no one had a good opinion then
Quentin Rountreesays:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 9:45 pm
“So who’s going to replace Anthony”
I thought the consensus was that Jim Chalmers would replace Albo around 2028-31
Dunno Wombat & Landlord,
The immigration reset doesn’t seem to have gone down well.
Hanson rubbished the ALP policy within hours. I’m guessing the left flank of the ALP weren’t too impressed with it either (despite saving the refugee intake at 20000), so perhaps they are looking elsewhere.
ALP down 2, Indies/Others up 2.
Their immigration policy announcement may be a bit of a self wedge.
Either cut immigration, or justify the current levels.
It’s a complicated policy where you can’t have a bit each way.
YouGov will turn up in 48 hrs. We’ll see if they have similar figures.
Morgan tomorrow as usual, but that poll is up and down like a yoyo.
I think the machine point is a good point. Politics shouldn’t be a profession in its own right, people should have developed real world skills beforehand to be an effective politician. The lack of real connection to the people it is meant to represent leads to alienation.
I mentioned about a week or so ago but Albo just gets too easily stunlocked. He has a tendency to not react in time and with adequate force to political events, then he gets all down in the dumps about it and gets worse.
It took the efforts of the rest of the party to get him back on his feet after the 2022 election gaffe, it took over a year to recover from the defeat of the 2023 Voice referendum.
Arange put on speaking now because the apparently polling this far out always been correct seriously if labour actually got rid of Anthony do you think would have got it better because I think it would do the exact opposite of make stuff worse
My advice to Albanese is to remember he promised to leave no one behind, he should start at the bottom and work his way up.
Where is the real welfare reform to boost payments and employment opportunities.
Labor has to address the COL for business and households.
Populist idea, abolish payroll tax but for business to qualify it much have 75% of its headcount in Australia.
I think Albo is genuinely well meaning but also a product of a system that means he cannot be effective.
Quentin, I don’t think anyone will replace Albanese. Firstly, i don’t believe the ALP would dump him. I think Albanese should step aside, but i think he believes he can turn things around. I also can’t see anyone likely to get the numbers to lead the ALP who would be significantly more effective than Albanese.
I’m with Rocket. I think the Coalition winning in Victoria will boost the stocks of the Coalition more broadly a bit. People are swinging to One Nation partly because of a feeling they are winning, whilst the Coalition are looking like losers, but the Coalition winning a state election will turn that around a bit.
Quentin Rountreesays:
Sunday, September 20, 2026 at 9:50 pm
“Arange put on speaking now because the apparently polling this far out always been correct seriously if labour actually got rid of Anthony do you think would have got it better because I think it would do the exact opposite of make stuff worse”
Would likely make it worse
I think he can turn it around. The coalition are so broken that all he needs is a bit of a lift and its another landslide. IMHO.
The wombat the problem with have with all this Anthony should leave is that why were people thinking that the polling was going to be constantly good for Anthony even John Howard had bad polling like that’s what happened with Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott instead of letting it all go to an election with the leaders both sides panicked and had 5 leaders within 12 years listen I know polling’s bad but god it’s not as worse as it could be Labor could be on the level of the coalition.Arange so you agree with me like the polling isn’t bad it’s just the second term downturn seriously replacing Anthony even if he stepped aside would be bad because people will that attack labour
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Victoria election result then leads to a move on Albo. It’s political killing season time anyway. If there was a challenge I would think it would come from Chalmers. It’s not that Albo has done anything wrong specifically he just feels like a bit of a nowhere man.
If John Howard had lost an election in 2001, Kim Beazley would have become Prime Minister. That’s very different to Pauline Hanson becoming Prime Minister.
There’s a certain urgency to the current situation because of the nature of the alternative.
Landlord:
Yeah, that’s what will win back people presently deserting Labor for a right-wing populist party whose economic policies make the Liberals look like erectial-disfunction-medication-ists: more of their taxes given to dole bludgers.
Its fair enough to argue for higher welfare payments on social justice grounds, but let’s not pretend that such a policy is going to win over anybody who isn’t already planning to either vote for or preference Labor over the Liberals and One Nation.
The reason the Liberals didn’t dump Howard in early 2001 is that they would have been cool with losing?
People really thinking that voting ON is going to instantly make things better…….
Someone from out in a country rural seat here. I can’t stand Pauline Hanson and find the idea that the very supporters she is winning over would be hurt most by a one nation government infuriating. However I’m also not deaf, there’s a lot of residual anger in my area at the moment and it’s been taken out as a huge up yours to the political establishment. My area for instance has a dying winery and agriculture industry that will see our town on its knees in the next few decades. Now one nation with their anti global warming rhetoric won’t fix that but people are so angry they will try anything that gives them hope even if it is a false dawn
You guys are acting like one Nations a leading 55 to 45 two weeks out to an election kicking Anthony wouldn’t do anything like William says leaders go through bouts of unpopularity like you think one nation with how you acting is like they’re going to have a Landslide Victory also send that tell knife Anthony after the Victorian election where unpopular labour government that’s 12 years old yeah that’s smart on generally glad none of us are running the country
I was addressing Quentin, William. But the majors absolutely must get their shit together, because the alternative is absolutely dreadful. John Howard loses to Kim Beazley, big picture, no great problem, no great change, you win the next election. Pauline Hanson beats Anthony Albanese, god help us.
Don’t tell me there isn’t a tiny part of everyone who kinda thinks PM Pauline Hanson would be the greatest thing ever.
Can you imagine how batshit crazy things will get? It’s almost worth the laugh.
The Wombat if Pauline wins I highly doubt that would be a stable government considering the people who probably run for one nation if that happens I expect in six months it will be the end of it also wombat like I said the constantly who is going to replace Anthony if he leaves people will think it’s another person being stabbed in the back.nath honestly I don’t think she wants to be p.m. because she probably knows that once she gets in people will end up hating her and also parliament requires compromise I don’t think she’s going to take over the senate so imagine her trying compromise on some things should probably just quit being prime minister
I totally agree One Nation would be a disaster as a government but I also get why people are moving to them as the default “none of the above” option. If the major parties can’t improve then we need other votable options to stop people lodging a protest vote.
nadiasays:
Not too sure why Albo has copped the poll smack tonight.
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Rhys Muldoon.
Wasn’t a great look.
Nath:
I happen to agree that the government are totally capable of turning things around too, both with Albo still in charge or with an alternative leader.
I also think they are quite capable of losing government in a year and a half too.
Were an election held on these numbers, I genuinely don’t know how it would go. There are so many unknowns right now.
One consolation is that if they arethrown out of government, Labor will probably still remain a formidable opposition with a seat count in the late 60s or early 70s, and be in a good position to take out whatever ungodly mess of a minority government replaces them in one term.
Fair enough, but far from being “getting their shit together”, knifing leaders seems to me exactly the sort of thing that has brought the major parties into disrepute. I agree with your point that the Liberals are better placed in this respect because they have an available alternative who doesn’t present as a business-as-usual politician, and Labor doesn’t. But even in their case, the time isn’t ripe.
Ashasays:
Were an election held on these numbers, I genuinely don’t know how it would go. There are so many unknowns right now.
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Provided the Teal seats hold I can’t see how a ON/Coalition can get the numbers. But what the fuck would I know.