Two federal polls this evening show improved results for Labor, with The Australian reporting its primary vote at 33%, up three points on three weeks ago, with One Nation down two to 29%, the Coalition down one to an all-time low of 17%, and the Greens up two to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 57%, while Angus Taylor takes a solid hit, down four on approval to 31% and up six on disapproval to 51%. The question was posed of Pauline Hanson for the first time, with results of 46% approval and 49% disapproval. Albanese’s lead over preferred Taylor on prime minister is out from 44-38 to 47-36, while a three-way result has Albanese on 49%, Hanson on 31% and Taylor on 20%. When those favouring Taylor were then asked to choose between Albanese and Hanson, and the uncommitted excluded, Albanese records a lead of 57-43.
Respondents were asked which of three considerations loomed largest in their vote choice, with One Nation supporter being distinctive in breaking 38% for “they understand people like me”, compared with 13% or 14% for the other parties, and being less likely to choose “they have clear and realistic policies” (42% compared with 54% to 61%) and “the leader’s character and values” (19% compared with 23% to 31%). The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1235.
The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll is the first poll in a while that doesn’t have One Nation leading on the primary vote, although the gap between them and Labor is well inside the margin of error. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 30%, with One Nation down two to 29%, the Coalition down two to 18% and the Greens up two to 14%, their best result from this pollster for the term. Labor’s two-party leads are substantially increased: 56-44 over One Nation and 54-46 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, in both cases out from 51-49; and 55-45 over the Coalition on previous election preference flows, out from 52-48.
The three-way preferred prime minister question also records movement favourable to Labor, with Anthony Albanese up two to 33%, Pauline Hanson down two to 23% and Angus Taylor down three to 11%. Albanese’s favourable rating is up two to 31%, with neutral down two to 16% and unfavourable down one to 49%; Taylor is down four on favourable to 17%, up five on neutral to 28% and up one on unfavourable to 26%; and Hanson is down three on favourable to 37%, down three on neutral to 11% and up seven on unfavourable to 47%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1006.
@Steve777 6:25pm
Except preference flows only come from one of those two unknowns (“?”) for any given TPP estimate, as the other is the party of comparison. I have about 25-26% ONP –>ALP, which is a smidge over 6 for a primary vote of 26 (hence ~51, I get to ~45 from GRN+OTH flow too).
Well Done Angus has his I Don’t Hold a Hose moment.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/kick-in-the-guts-firefighters-demand-taylor-apologise-over-bushfire-claim-20260629-p60b2r.html
@citizen
That’s the kicker. Deeming is an Abbott-Credlin Liberal, and Hanson has made it clear she has no interest in accepting her into One Nation.
Very big open wound for the Right in Victorian politics.
I try to avoid night driving these days Citizen.
It would be good if everything could go by rail but that’s not really feasible.
There’s a shortage of heavy vehicle drivers so I guess there’s a lot of pressure on the existing ones.
Evening Nadia, oops, Here4theData, what time does YouGov normally come out?
Essential always dishes up weird numbers imo
Following on from my last post on data centres, Renew Economy has this story:
https://reneweconomy.com.au/landmark-deal-to-power-ai-factories-underwrites-much-needed-big-battery-on-australias-most-renewable-grid/
If they use closed loop cooling, as they have promised, this is potentially good for SA – last summer they had several issues with not enough electricity demand and almost had to switch off people’s solar panels to keep the system secure. Extra electricity demand will fix that.
Mali intends to legislate AI regulations:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-23/sa-push-for-ai-data-centres-in-sa-in-new-strategy/106830536
The company referred to in the Renew Economy story – Firmus – has some fine sounding commitments, including building twice as much renewable generation capacity as it will use and low water use. They also state that:
https://firmus.co/ourcommitments
Regardless, Mali needs to craft the legislation carefully to ensure they uphold their commitments.
Thank you, Dr D. You may have saved me from an own goal.
Not that I pay any attention to polls, but can the Greens push ahead of the Liberal/National coalition?
In regards paid maternity leave, business develops staff and the preference is to retain such staff (hence paid maternity leave ahead of returning to their position)
The performance of staff and the commitment of staff is the most valuable asset any business has
If they sacked upon pregnancy (or even leave of absence to travel, which I once did for 12 months) then business has to skill someone else at cost and time
So productivity, hey?
Noting the sectors on the ASX with some savage hits starting with Health – and overall up just 3% on the year with no outstanding sector
Japan up 75%, noting the opinions of Black Rock and their long time comments on Japan hence their returns for the year
Here’s something the Nationals could’ve focused on if they weren’t so obsessed with denying the scientific reality of AGW. Rural and regional mobile users, supposedly the Nats’ heartland voters have been dudded by Telstra coverage claims for all these years. Have any Nationals MPs raised this as an issue? Genuine question.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/telstra-s-claimed-coverage-slashed-by-almost-1-million-km-20260629-p60b07.html
Mavis says:
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 4:56 pm
I believe her, but perhaps some 2 million mothers won’t:
‘One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has used another appearance in the Senate to clarify remarks she made in her National Press Club speech, this time about paid parental leave.
Today, she said: “Let’s be absolutely clear on the facts. I support paid parental leave, and I will not change it. I repeat, I will not change it.”
_______________________________________
Well that has cleared things up, now how about the “Business should be able to sack lazy workers at will”
Dr Fumbles McStupidsays:
Well that has cleared things up, now how about the “Business should be able to sack lazy workers at will”
____________
Maybe I’m missing something but is that really controversial? And what are the limits of acceptable laziness?
Notice how Hanson says “I will not change it”.
Will she a government of one?
@David at 7:02pm
Probably not, since Greens activists tend to be more active in fighting Labor than they are with the Coalition/One Nation.
They’re the political equivalent of this hologram bloke.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz5sbQ8sYIA
“But what about the Droid attack on the Wookiees?”
Hanson also said
” If you’re an airline pilot, male, female, you get the same pay … you do the work, you same pay. The difference is that if women take time off and they are not paid their wages because they’re not working, fair enough, why should business pay them if they’re not at work? That’s the difference. That’s why the pay gap is there.”
Shows a breathtakingly simplistic explanation of pay equity and the gender pay gap – kinda misses out the discrimination, labour market segmentation and systematic issues given we have had equal pay for the same job since 1969 and equal pay for work of equal value from 1974 and still a decent pay gap in 2026.
Also she is now supportive of the public parental leave, from the ALP no less, but we had maternity/parental leave for yonks as a standard employment entitlement before the national safety net.
Except her actual comment was even more clear and more inaccurate:
nath says:
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 7:07 pm
Dr Fumbles McStupidsays:
Well that has cleared things up, now how about the “Business should be able to sack lazy workers at will”
____________
Maybe I’m missing something but is that really controversial? And what are the limits of acceptable laziness?
____________________
I paraphrased the lazy workers on the phones all day part of the speech.
It isnt about laziness per se, more the difference between the due process we have now to dismiss and adopting the US employment at will system. It is the standard whinge that unfair dismissal protection makes workers to hard to sack. Easy solution, just hire them as casuals – oh but then have to pay them 25% more, bugger.
And on the SBS News service, an add on being touched without giving consent
Guy?
And Doyle?
The lady may have exaggerated BUT in the first instance she was touched with no consent given
Guy is at fault
What would the parakeet of high fashion but no substance think if I walked up to her and touched her absent any consent to do so?
As always, first things first
OK got ya
David
In the real world, we touch people without their consent on a daily basis.
The problem is when they make it clear that they do NOT consent.
Harassment is repeated behaviour, not a one off.
citizen said,
Living in Canberra, I don’t get to experience this section but I’m always wary when driving to Sydney, especially in the early morning, from Goulburn onwards. Sharing the road with a bunch of big trucks is not a pleasant experienc
—————-
As someone who has had a lifetime of experience on The Hume Highway , I’m always glad to get past the Canberra turn off coming from Goulburn as the idiots generally turn/vere left to Canberra and leave us alone for the rest of the trip, lol.
Booster says … In the real world, we touch people without their consent on a daily basis.
—————
I used to teach students when handling cattle and training them to lead that the best place to touch an animal is on the shoulder if you don’t want a kick or worse.
Works for people up to a point.
…now, if we have audio of Deeming saying, “Oi, get your hand off my shoulder” and Guy leaving it there, there might be a case.
Remember, the police have viewed the footage. If there was a crime to spot, they’d have spotted it.
David
Like it or not, there is a big difference between a head lock and touching someone on their shoulder.
Davidsays:
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 7:18 pm
And on the SBS News service, an add on being touched without giving consent
Guy?
And Doyle?
_______________________
And Fowles ?
And Cheeseman ?
Taylormade:
I’m not sure what your point is.
Fowles and Cheeseman were both forced to resign from the ALP after what they did came to light.
@Taylormade
They’ve both been expelled from the Labor Party, so, your point is…?
There are plenty of reports in the media today that the Victorian Liberals are set to dump Moira Deeming from the top spot on the Western Metropolitan ticket, which she had only just secured after outmanoeuvring the moderate Dinesh Gourisetty. It seems going after Matthew Guy and her own faction has finally united the party against her.
Pauline Hanson said she thinks Australian workers are lazy and she wishes it was easier to sack them. No wriggle room there for that slimy politician leading One Nation. She hates Aussie workers and wants them to suffer so she and her rich mates can make more money.
The words gormless Garth (the member for Groom) uttered that led to his 24-hour suspension were: “This is fucking bullshit”. This was in response to
Kirsty McBaine’s claim that Taylor (reported in the media) attributed blame to the fireries who fought the 2003 Snowy Mountains bushfires. I seem to recall that Morrison had a few problems with volunteer firefighters, too. It must be a Liberal thing. It was Zali Steggall who asked Dick to name him.
Ashasays:
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 7:57 pm
Taylormade:
I’m not sure what your point is.
Fowles and Cheeseman were both forced to resign from the ALP after what they did came to light.
_______________________
He missed two. He needed to keep going.
I was helping him out.
Moira Deeming: I like the cut of her jib. I can see that she’d be a Tony Abbott acolyte. Maybe a bikini photo shoot would help. The budgies did wonders for Tones.
Mavis – you’re probably right about Liberals in general and their strange aversion to volunteer firefighting, but I’d exempt Tony Abbott from that generalisation.
Mavis
SCOTUS ruled that POTUS can fire anyone in federal government, I repeat anyone.
US supreme court rules Trump can fire leaders of independent agencies
Case focused on White House’s March 2025 firing of Federal Trade Commission member Rebecca Slaughter
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/29/us-supreme-court-ftc-ruling-slaughter
US justice system has slaughtered the US Justice system.
USA ISS OFFICIALLY A BANANA REPUBLIC!
This is f**king Bullshit as Garth Hamilton has said.
One Nation has been briefing the media that they are not interested in Deeming. Seems she is too nuts even for them.
Yes, there are actually worse groups than One Nation in our midst:
“Neo-Nazi Thomas Sewell emulated ‘Nazi thugs of 1930s Berlin’ while making ‘appalling racial slurs’, court finds:
Sewell, 33, found guilty of offensive behaviour over 2024 stunt outside Chinese consulate in Melbourne”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/jun/30/neo-nazi-thomas-sewell-thug-slurs-chinese-consulate-melbourne-court-case-ntwnfb
For people like Sewell, Hanson is actually a race traitor for her espousal of ‘multiracial monoculturalism’. That is a chilling thought.
The likes of Pauline Hanson (and Karl Stefanovic’s new bestie, Tommy Robinson) are, at least, less extreme than Thomas Sewell’s advocacy for a white ethno-state. But I really don’t like the direction that whole segment of our ‘culture’ is travelling in.
Paul Keating once touched the late Queen on the back. Was there consent on that occasion?
I say this not to have a go at PJK, but to point out the absurdity of suggesting that Guy did anything much wrong.
To constitute common assault, you don’t need to make contact with the other
party. In such a case, three elements have to be satisfied: gesture, reasonable fear, and immediacy. On what I’ve seen of Guy’s actions, Deeming’s clutching at straws. There’s no way that the police would prefer charges against him.
Popped in from my mid-term hiatus to read about these latest more encouraging polls….they are…..encouraging. Of more note to the bludger universe I seems to note some very conspicuous absences among posters….Has WB had an early spring clean?
It’s not like Guy stroked her thigh or slapped her on the butt or something. From what we can see from the footage, he briefly placed a hand on her shoulder while leaning in to talk to her, and then did the exact same thing to a man nearby moments later.
Sure, there’s an argument to be made that that isn’t appropriate in this day and age, but it definitely isn’t a “violent headlock” nor a matter to be getting the police involved in. Deeming falsely accused Guy of physically assaulting her. In my book, that’s much worse than someone being a bit too touchy.
Trump says Witkoff and Jared Kushner are flying to Doha for negotiations with Iran but Iran officials said that they will be in Doha but not for negotiations.
Newy – Thomas Sewell must have got his racist views growing up on the mean streets of Balwyn.
Did anything happen over the Nazi attack at the Domain in Melbourne? That was a year ago, caught on camera with the Nazis doing an unprovoked assault on the people there, bashing them in the head with weapons, causing massive injury & sending people to hospital.
Yet I’ve heard nothing more about this terrorist attack since a judge gave the head Nazi bail, for a terrorist attack on random people in a park, so much for the lefty bleeding heart judges in this case.
BSF – is that as scary as Chatswood after dark? I have a friend who lives there, who I’m now as worried about as Taylormade would be.
B. S. Fairmansays:
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 8:31 pm
Newy – Thomas Sewell must have got his racist views growing up on the mean streets of Balwyn.
___________________________________
I miss living near Balwyn. Driving down Mont Albert Rd with the tree converging over the street like a cave. Not to mention the jewel in the crown: the Palace Cinema. A beautiful art deco building:
And yes that is a tram line running right outside the theatre.
We are hearing the phrase “the three parties of the right” quite a lot now. Those being Lib, Nats, ON.
But let’s consider the fourth party, led by the PM, who was the first national leader to publicly support Trump’s catastrophic war.
A Govt that firmly supports an all-in Defence & Foreign Affairs partnership with the far right authoritarian US regime.
A Govt that bases its budget on expanding fossil fuel export supply and slashing disability funding.
A Govt that protects and defends multinationals’ super profits as a priority and serves the captains of industry with enthusiasm.
I could go on.
Many would suggest we have four right wing parties.
Genuinely progressive minded people have a shrinking field of candidates to support.
Australia is heading in the wrong direction.
UK: More than 45,000 foreign criminals and failed asylum seekers will be removed over the coming decade thanks to a significant expansion of detention capacity.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said:
Returns and deportations are at their highest level in nearly a decade.
Nearly 70,000 individuals with no right to be here have been removed from the UK since this government took office.
But we will not stop there. These expansions will see thousands more foreign criminals and illegal migrants who have no right to be here removed.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/illegal-immigrants-and-foreign-criminals-to-be-removed
Not the Australian govt. The projections submitted to the IEA as part of Australia’s annual energy reporting is shown below:
They are conservative projections that assume our trading partners continue with business as usual. If they make more sensible choices, one of the scenarios below is more likely:
If Matt Guy had even half a brain he’d have kept clear of Moira Deeming at all times, given the internal political climate within the Vic Libs.
I’d be certain his colleagues now have full clarity.
SL:
Appreciate the fact checking.
Thank you.