The state redistribution for Queensland has been finalised, making only one substantial change with minimal political repercussions. This involves maintaining the Logan City seat of Waterford, after the proposed boundaries published in March had most of the existing seat going to Woodridge and a new seat of Marsden being created largely from territory at the southern end of both. The final boundaries split most of what was to be Marsden between Woodridge and a seat that will maintain the name of Waterford, though the latter has a distinctly more southern orientation than under the old boundaries, while the former has acquired an ungainly shape. Also affected is Logan immediately to the south, which largely involves reversing changes from the proposal.
I am yet to calculate new margins for the boundaries, but Ben Raue of The Tally Room has done so, and he rates that Waterford now has a 13.5% Labor margin, compared with what have been 16.1% in Marsden, and 14.9% in Woodridge, compared with what had been 13.2% on the proposed boundaries. Apart from the fact that the seat whose name was to be changed to Pimpama will keep its name of Coomera, other changes of purely local interest.
The other major changes of the redistribution, which have tended to favour the Liberal National Party, are left intact. There will again be a seat of Caboolture in Brisbane’s outer north, an earlier incarnation of which was a usually Labor-held seat that was among of the 11 won by One Nation in 1998; and a new notional Labor seat will be created in the Ipswich region by dividing Bundamba and Jordan into Springfield, Redbank and Greenbank. Boundary changes in the Gold Coast have pulled the rug from under Meaghan Scanlon, who is widely touted as a future Labor leader, in her seat of Gaven.
UPDATE: I have a spreadsheet with my full accounting of post-redistribution estimates, though I have not engaged in the subject process of reconciling seats with mixed two-candidate preferred splits, of which there are many.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of the redistribution and Queensland politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Hi William,
Thanks for all your work.
I think there is a typo, as One Nation won Caboolture in 1998 rather than 1988.
I say while somehow misspelling my own username
Thanks for pointing that out – and indeed for commenting here at all.
I think the redistribution is pretty fair, yes ALP lose Gaven but many other marginal seats like Aspley and Rockhampton are more in their favour. The Queensland growth areas tend to be LNP.
Follow-up article from Ben Raue here:
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/65030
He’s reclassified Mulgrave as a notional KAP seat, margin 6.8% vs LNP. They came a close third (in the 3cp) in the old seat, and strong booths for Shane Knuth coming in from Hill push them into second. I guess Knuth runs there if he doesn’t want to retire? His office is in Atherton, which has been moved there.
My accounting of the redistribution:
https://1drv.ms/x/c/6e5eda810c1dafbc/IQCiqZODugI_ToFwbnzaVpjKAbptgjp6VrKnHNCrJLh1w28?e=Ovy6Pm