Two federal polls this evening show improved results for Labor, with The Australian reporting its primary vote at 33%, up three points on three weeks ago, with One Nation down two to 29%, the Coalition down one to an all-time low of 17%, and the Greens up two to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 57%, while Angus Taylor takes a solid hit, down four on approval to 31% and up six on disapproval to 51%. The question was posed of Pauline Hanson for the first time, with results of 46% approval and 49% disapproval. Albanese’s lead over preferred Taylor on prime minister is out from 44-38 to 47-36, while a three-way result has Albanese on 49%, Hanson on 31% and Taylor on 20%. When those favouring Taylor were then asked to choose between Albanese and Hanson, and the uncommitted excluded, Albanese records a lead of 57-43.
Respondents were asked which of three considerations loomed largest in their vote choice, with One Nation supporter being distinctive in breaking 38% for “they understand people like me”, compared with 13% or 14% for the other parties, and being less likely to choose “they have clear and realistic policies” (42% compared with 54% to 61%) and “the leader’s character and values” (19% compared with 23% to 31%). The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1235.
The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll is the first poll in a while that doesn’t have One Nation leading on the primary vote, although the gap between them and Labor is well inside the margin of error. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 30%, with One Nation down two to 29%, the Coalition down two to 18% and the Greens up two to 14%, their best result from this pollster for the term. Labor’s two-party leads are substantially increased: 56-44 over One Nation and 54-46 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, in both cases out from 51-49; and 55-45 over the Coalition on previous election preference flows, out from 52-48.
The three-way preferred prime minister question also records movement favourable to Labor, with Anthony Albanese up two to 33%, Pauline Hanson down two to 23% and Angus Taylor down three to 11%. Albanese’s favourable rating is up two to 31%, with neutral down two to 16% and unfavourable down one to 49%; Taylor is down four on favourable to 17%, up five on neutral to 28% and up one on unfavourable to 26%; and Hanson is down three on favourable to 37%, down three on neutral to 11% and up seven on unfavourable to 47%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1006.
The people upset over the changes to CGT on investors and start ups are not natural ON supporters
These polls will set the agenda for the final sitting week. The Opposition can no longer hide behind its lame “the budget is pushing voters towards One Nation” line, which will come back to bite them with these numbers.
I hope all of you enjoy your Angus Well Done.
From previous thread:
That’s interesting. It suggests to ms that One Nation has probably absorbed much of the RWNJ minor party vote (Christian Right, anti Vax, conspiracy theorists, etc), leaving mostly Teals and Centrists in the “Other” camp.
The better line of attack against Hanson is to point out that she is the ultimate political insider, captive by vested interests and happy to shill for them. Just like the other politicians her supporters say they’re against and why she appeals to them.
Nigel Farage is facing some uncomfortable scrutiny about a 5 million pound donation from a crypto bro with which he went and purchased real estate. Hanson should be blow torched for donations she has received.
from the last thread
Greens in the teens in Newspoll as well, I like to see it
Combined “majors” hits 50 but only because of the climb in the Labor primary offset the fall for the LNP
One Nation still too high
Others -2 gave me a chuckle, even though the 2 who left are still counted in Others
Saw this being sold online for $22.99
https://teeslocal.com/product/there-are-2-types-of-one-nation-supporters-billionaires-or-idiots-check-your-shirt/?srsltid=AfmBOor6-ansxal9JowPpyrp_Cvh2zRazFrgHF93PtbFMnVOxCLwyXcJ
Boerwar says:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 8:29 pm
A_E
I picked that one up as well. No guts. No gorm.
The body language during QT this week was as if he had no spine… slouching, lounging…
Hume (and other Liberals) shamed him into saying something positive about multiculturalism by wednesday morning, I believe. But by then it was too late. He managed to damage himself coming and going.
I actually find it a bit hard to believe just how bad he is as a LOTO. In recent weeks he has been gifted several easy kicks by Labor. Hanson handed him some easy kicks as well – on paid parental leave and the monoculture stupidity.
And all Angus managed to do was to kick himself in the arse a couple of times.
Wilson keeps having to backtrack on some bigmouth brainfart or another. His histrionics simply don’t fit with the gravitas needed for a Shadow Treasurer. Wilson also keeps leading with his chin and Chalmers and Albanese have been gutting him on a routine basis. Too easy.
Tehan has been doing an OK job as manager of opposition business. They took some skin off Claire O’Neill this week during QT.
…until Dick finally got jack of Tehan abusing standing orders with his POOs. And left Tehan stranded at the Despatch Box while the business of the House surged on around him.
It is as if they all know, in their hearts, that they are totally and royally stuffed.
It’s a bit redundant to say ‘the worry for the Liberals here is…’ because there’s been an almost endless series of worries for the Liberals…
…but…
One would expect that, if ON is going off the boil, that the Coalition would see an improvement.
Instead, there seems to be a drift to Labor/Greens.
>That’s interesting. It suggests to ms that One Nation has probably absorbed much of the RWNJ minor party vote (Christian Right, anti Vax, conspiracy theorists, etc), leaving mostly Teals and Centrists in the “Other” camp.
Absolutely. Something similar could be said of the large minority (43 per cent) of Coalition voters who said they’d prefer Albanese over Hanson. That suggests what’s left of the remaining Coalition base is more moderate than it would have been before the rise of ON.
I wonder if this is giving more voters cause to pause before leaping over the cliff with One Nation:
Steve777 – I suspect that One Nation will lose a bit of primary vote to those same RW alternative groups (UAP, LDP, etc) who are ain’t listed in the poll at the election too. Then there is a bit of “leakage” that happens when voters stuff their preferences.
While I have not much desire to see a LNP government, I would prefer an experienced outfit like the LNP to offer some reasoned opposition – certainly not the low-level whinge pickers the ON outfit as they are and have always been – as a future choice for voters.
The support for the LNP – and especially – one suspects – for the NP out in the sticks is becoming a disaster for the blue side.
The SmearStralian nailing their colours to the mast…
Can’t be, newy boy. All the media talking heads said the GetUp stunt would backfire and make Pauline more popular.
From the previous thread:
BW
This, IMO, is one of the biggest dilemmas facing the Australian right in general at the moment.
Their traditional base of wealthy boomers and Gen X-ers who entered the property market decades ago and accumulated at least a few investment properties since, obviously want prices to continue rising. Most Liberal, National, and One Nation MPs feel the same way.
But then there’s the working class voters and the younger cohort of right-wing millenials and zoomers who have been moving One Nation’s way, the ones who blame immigrants for surging house prices and cost-of-living, the ones whose right-wing views are less about economics and more wokeness and cancel culture and trans people and “men not being allowed to be men anymore” and all that. They do want to see house prices fall. Its one of the big reasons that demographic has become increasingly anti-immigration.
Threading the needle between those two groups is going to be one of the biggest challenges facing both the Coalition and One Nation in in the immediate future.
Anyone feel like placing bets on how long it will take for the Coalition to poll a primary lower than the Greens?
“Labor has engineered a short-term recovery in Newspoll”. Jeez that Albanese is fiendishly clever.
The 43% of LNP voters who prefer Ablo to Pauline means it should be relatively easy for Labor to run a “don’t risk it” campaign attack on One Nation to scoop up the preferences of what remains of the Liberal vote.
And I could say something provocative like Labor to crack the 3 figure mark of seats but I won’t.
From previous thread
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 7:29 pm
Ghost Of Whitlamsays:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 7:17 pm
Look, Labor’s polling was consistently good while Shorten’s ratings were consistently in the shitter.
Just cop it on the chin that Shorten was unelectable.
I don’t think Albo is unelectable against Hanson and Angus, but let’s see what happens…
You just need to acknowledge that Albo is falling in popularity, for legitimate reasons. A flip flopper extraordinaire a long way to the right of where he pretended to be prior to first being elected as a socialist leftie.
____________
Rex, what did Albo flip flop on?
The reduction of the third stage of tax cuts to the high income earners?
Less of a tax concession on your $3 million super fund?
Or was it the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes?
Are any of these flip-flops a long way to the right?
Albo has you fooled 🙂
GovNerd, Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 8:38 pm:
——————–
🙂
Housing policy for ON and LNP seems clear enough. House prices should be cheaper for buyers and dearer for existing home owners and investors. Belief in the market will ensure these outcomes will be achieved.
The margin of error for the Newspoll (sample size 1,235) is about 2.8%, compared to about 3.2% for RedBridge, but two polls with similar movements increases confidence that this is not just a statistical blip. We’ll see how future polls go to see if this is a trend.
sprocket_ @ #13 Sunday, June 28th, 2026 – 8:38 pm
Hey! It wasn’t the government who started the argument about multiculturalism and monoculturalism, it was Pauline Hanson.
I don’t read the Oz but I’m sure there was at least one columnist in that paper who enthusiastically cheered Hanson’s comments on.
I’d love to see it Asha, the Greens over taking the LNP would definitely be the end of Taylor as leader, although that can’t be too far off either way
“… Voters from the Others pile, who support independents and minor parties, broke more favourably for Mr Albanese (66 per cent) than Senator Hanson (34 per cent).”
I have a different read on this to some here, imo it’s a worry that so many from the “Others” column would pick Hanson if the theory is that the “Others” column without One Nation would lean socially progressive. I think it suggests there is a rump of right wingers in there
GovNerd says:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 8:38 pm
Can’t be, newy boy. All the media talking heads said the GetUp stunt would backfire and make Pauline more popular.
__________
I shall put my hand up to say the stunt was a mistake. But Hanson made more of a mistake. Several of them.
A snippet in the AFR write up of Redbridge..
The clown car driven by Barnyard into the arms of OneNation starting to backfire..
One can never underestimate the effectiveness of a political leader being undermined at their own event.
That Getup poster gently falling down behind Pauline and that shot of her looking at it with outrage undermines her seeming invulnerability.
I’m reminded of something similar happening to Garry Kasparov back in 2008 when he was being taken seriously as an opposition leader, then a flying sex toy hovered over him during a similar press conference.
18 years later, Putin is still in absolute control of Russia and Kasparov is in exile.
Kirsdarke says:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 8:52 pm
One can never underestimate the effectiveness of a political leader being undermined at their own event.
That Getup poster gently falling down behind Pauline and that shot of her looking at it with outrage undermines her seeming invulnerability.
I’m reminded of something similar happening to Garry Kasparov back in 2008 when he was being taken seriously as an opposition leader, then a flying sex toy hovered over him during a similar press conference.
18 years later, Putin is still in absolute control of Russia and Kasparov is in exile.
_________
There is no come back to this analogy 🙂
Nice example Kirsdarke … couldn’t you have just gone with Kim Beazley?
If Labor is able to ‘engineer’ a short term recovery, they’re political geniuses who will also be able to ‘engineer’ another whomping election win.
Rex:
You know, people can genuinely change their views over the course of thirty years.
Nor would I say Albanese is near as right-wing or centrist as is claimed by some, nor a “flip-flopper.” Just very pragmatic and willing to read the room and shift positions where appropriate. We are talking about a guy whose government just passed one of the most economically left budgets that any federal government has in a long time, after all.
There’s plenty one can criticise both Albo and his government for, but my God does it piss me off when some on the left refuse to give Labor credit when they put their political capital at serious risk to pass genuine progressive reforms. (Regardless of whether one thinks the budget was politically wise or not, it most definitely is not a right-wing budget.) Reminds me of 2019, when Shorten was continually painted as a right-wing stooge despite going to an election with one of the most left-wing platforms any opposition had in decades when it would have been very easy to just go small-target.
At least labor has engineers, as opposed to whatever marketing idiots are putting Angus Taylor on a horse.
Full credit to GetUp. I foolishly criticised them too when I first heard about the stunt, but, damn, they knew what they were doing.
Ashasays:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 8:17 pm
Mid Winter Ball Weds evening
The most important poll of all.
_______________________
I’ll post my annual best and worst dressed on Thurs morning.
Last years results.
Best- Sussan Ley ( no show this year)
Worst – Dorinda Cox.
Kirs:
Did you catch grabs of John Ossof’s recent speech on the campaign trail? Damn but the man knows how to speak. He effectively breaks the corrupt Kushner/Ivanka Albania land grab down into less than 3 minutes when news outlets find it so hard they don’t even bother.
https://x.com/TVietor08/status/2070956652707348669
The GetUp poster is probably a non-issue for like 70% of the voters. Not everyone is as hooked on the political news as the PB posters, especially in the middle of winter when there is not an election and the world cup is on and….
One could make the case about the “vibe” but that would a stretch.
Re Sprocket 8:38.
The Australian these days barely even pretends to be reporting the news. It’s a propaganda pamphlet masquerading as a newspaper.
In that excerpt, it seems to be following a process of checking off Coalition talking points at the head of its articles. Does it expand upon how Labor so fiendishly engineered its poll lead.
Tricot:
Problem with that is that the LNP have not been a “reasoned opposition” in a long time. Under Dutton and Ley and Taylor, they haven’t been much better than One Nation, just with a more professional veneer and more subtle dogwhistles. And, really, as contemptible as they are, One Nation have at least proved capable of putting pressure on the government and knock the post-landslide complacency out of them, which is something, I guess.
As long as none of them get anywhere near the government benches, I don’t really care who wins the battle for opposition out of these clowns.
Taylormade:
I’m glad to see you are focussing your attention on the issues that really matter.
Victoria (from the previous blog)
That was a very dodgy back of the envelope calculation by Geoffrey Watson SC, who in all aspects of the law and human rights, I have the greatest respect for.
But, his quick back-of-the envelope calculation attributed the circa 2018 (accelerated post-COVID) surge in building material prices to CFMEU corruption.
From the G: “According to ABS engineering construction price data cited by Saul Eslake, construction costs in Victoria rose by 36.8% between 2014 and 2025. However, costs rose higher in New South Wales (37.4%) and across the national average (41.7%). Critics note that if CFMEU corruption uniquely added 15% to Victoria’s bills, Victoria’s cost escalation should logically have outpaced states like NSW and QLD, which it did not.”
It reminds me of a time long ago, in the Blue Mountains, when I was on the board of our local OOSH (out of School Hours) care facility – homework club or whatever.
So, there is me, an accountant and a lawyer. And, we were asked the question: can we afford to stay opening during the next school holidays? To me it was a simple question: What are there fixed stand costs, how many children do we need to cover that, and how many children do we already have signed up?
We had 15 children signed up (when we only needed 12 to cover costs), but the accountant and the lawyer both came up with the number of 30 children needed, which would mean we could not open.
I then said, no, we only need 15 children, and showed them my simple calculation. they looked at each other and said” She’s right, but we do not know why”. So, we opened.
But it was a great eye-opener for me about how people count. Both the lawyer and the accountant, who were actually great guys and good friends, used what was to me a particularly obscure what of counting things, and to this day, I have never understood it.
The accountant seemed to add all sorts of cost up, and then subtract things from it. But what puzzles me to thins day is how they both came up with double the number of children to keep the place open?
Are there some algorithms used by accountants and lawyers than can go horribly wrong?
@Confessions at 9:05pm
Admittedly I was a bit doubtful for the first part of that video, since Americans don’t usually care about foreign policy, but Ossoff’s flourish at the end of it was magnificent.
I think he’s got the juice to win both the Georgia 2026 Senate race and possibly the 2028 Presidential race from there.
With the imminent demise of Angus and the dim Little Libs prospects at the next election, they need to protect their ‘next geners’ in Hastie and Patterson, until H&P’s destruction next term. That leaves non-entities like ‘Tehran’ Tehan or ‘China’ Hume to stand up and play the equivalent of Capn Smith of the Titanic. Any other nominations for the Capn Smith role?
Labor fiendishly engineered its poll lead by, through some or other nefarious stratagem, causing the Coalition to run around like a bunch of headless chooks and tie themselves in knots over “monoculture”, while calmly getting on with thd job of running the national Government…
Douglas and Milkosays:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 9:16 pm
From the G: “According to ABS engineering construction price data cited by Saul Eslake, construction costs in Victoria rose by 36.8% between 2014 and 2025. However, costs rose higher in New South Wales (37.4%) and across the national average (41.7%). Critics note that if CFMEU corruption uniquely added 15% to Victoria’s bills, Victoria’s cost escalation should logically have outpaced states like NSW and QLD, which it did not.”
_______________
Saul Eslake should have also pointed out that Vic construction wages, and the cost of building a house or apartment, are lower than NSW and QLD in absolute terms.
A very interesting couple of polls. With the standard caveat that we should be wary in assuming that any individual movement in polling means anything much, having two pollsters show something similar probably points to something significant. One Nation had clearly been the “none-of-the-above” option of choice over the last nine months or so, but the real test for them was always going to be when ONP had to face some real scrutiny, rather than just be the chief cypher for mid-term protest votes. Hanson’s performance at the press club ten days ago has left a large number of booby traps for herself, whether it be calling workers lazy, criticising parental leave rights, dissing childcare and threatening both
multiculturalism and SBS in the middle of the World Cup. I suspect that a significant portion of people who were previously suggesting they’d vote One Nation have now reconsidered that position in the light of Hanson’s speech. Beforehand, apolitical voters could project whatever anti-government spin they wanted re Hanson, but now she’s tried to put some specifics out there, she doesn’t look like such a safe bet. Such scrutiny will only get more intense over the period between now and the next election.
Steve:
Perhaps the Coalition and One Nation’s recent own goals are the result of Labor engaging the services of a redhead of their own:
Anyone seen Albo’s son recently?
I ran the Newspoll numbers through a simulation, and got the following results:
ALP: 90 seats
PHON: 42 seats
LNP: 7 seats
GRN: 0 seats
KAP: 1 seat
CA: 1 seat
T-IND: 7 seats
IND: 2 seats
Here’s the map:
https://yapms.com/app/aus/house/2025001/blank?m=ldvi24nsaibbzlp
I’m one of those who thought the GetUp banner was a stupid ploy, based on a decade of people in the US doing the exact same thing to Trump hoping to expose him, only to further push voters towards him. ‘If they’re attacking Trump so hard then he must be doing something right, keeping the bastards honest’ kind of thing.
The best way to go after these people is to tag them as just another politician, beholden to the vested interests. I’ve said before, Trump 1.0 circa 2016 you can kind of forgive the media for treating him as the bright new shiny thing because modern US politics hadn’t really seen a candidate like him before.
Aus media has no such excuse for Hanson. She’s been in our lives and on our screens for as long as many voters have been alive, and longer than many voters have been eligible to vote. She’s the absolute epitome of the political insider sucking at the public teat and definitely no bright shiny thing.
Yeah, and there’s the thing. ON has cannibalised the coalition vote to the point that even including ON in the coalition wouldn’t give them enough seats to form government.
So why cozy up to them by preferencing them? It makes no sense.
Dingbat
And that “supposed” dog Toto is really a fiendish white cat in disguise!!