Two federal polls this evening show improved results for Labor, with The Australian reporting its primary vote at 33%, up three points on three weeks ago, with One Nation down two to 29%, the Coalition down one to an all-time low of 17%, and the Greens up two to 13%. Anthony Albanese is up four on approval to 40% and down three on disapproval to 57%, while Angus Taylor takes a solid hit, down four on approval to 31% and up six on disapproval to 51%. The question was posed of Pauline Hanson for the first time, with results of 46% approval and 49% disapproval. Albanese’s lead over preferred Taylor on prime minister is out from 44-38 to 47-36, while a three-way result has Albanese on 49%, Hanson on 31% and Taylor on 20%. When those favouring Taylor were then asked to choose between Albanese and Hanson, and the uncommitted excluded, Albanese records a lead of 57-43.
Respondents were asked which of three considerations loomed largest in their vote choice, with One Nation supporter being distinctive in breaking 38% for “they understand people like me”, compared with 13% or 14% for the other parties, and being less likely to choose “they have clear and realistic policies” (42% compared with 54% to 61%) and “the leader’s character and values” (19% compared with 23% to 31%). The poll was conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1235.
The Financial Review has a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll is the first poll in a while that doesn’t have One Nation leading on the primary vote, although the gap between them and Labor is well inside the margin of error. Labor is up two on the primary vote to 30%, with One Nation down two to 29%, the Coalition down two to 18% and the Greens up two to 14%, their best result from this pollster for the term. Labor’s two-party leads are substantially increased: 56-44 over One Nation and 54-46 over the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, in both cases out from 51-49; and 55-45 over the Coalition on previous election preference flows, out from 52-48.
The three-way preferred prime minister question also records movement favourable to Labor, with Anthony Albanese up two to 33%, Pauline Hanson down two to 23% and Angus Taylor down three to 11%. Albanese’s favourable rating is up two to 31%, with neutral down two to 16% and unfavourable down one to 49%; Taylor is down four on favourable to 17%, up five on neutral to 28% and up one on unfavourable to 26%; and Hanson is down three on favourable to 37%, down three on neutral to 11% and up seven on unfavourable to 47%. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1006.
There are many things one can criticise the federal government for, but not their climate change policies, IMO. They are legit in their commitment in phasing out fossil fuels for renewables and should be commended for what they have done so far and are continuing to do. Taking this route has come at genuine political risk on their part, and I would argue is part of the reason they have lost ground to One Nation as of late.
Could they go faster and harder? Probably, but not without economic consequences that would be a gift to parties like One Nation. Already, “net-zero” has become the whipping boy for all sorts of cost-of-living woes and rises in energy prices. Society needs power and fuel to function. People need it to live. This transition takes time, and we do still need to rely on some traditional energy sources until such time as we can go completely without fossil fuels.
On the question of why there are more rightwing parties, it must be asked (yet again) why the Greens and more progressive parties than the Greens aren’t profiting from the pox on both their houses wrt the major parties.
If the country truly was this leftwing wonderland desperately seeking out more leftist parties to support, then why isn’t that demand being met by more leftwing political parties springing up to take advantage of the emerging and prevailing voter sentiment? And more importantly, why aren’t the Greens surging like ON did?
Only because people don’t know what it means and nobody is properly explaining it.
If people understood what this means they’d realise it isn’t the scary thing they imagine, but a sensible method of transitioning away from a fossil fuel dependent economy and society.
Rex:
We don’t know the context of their conversation. Maybe they had important party matters to discuss. Maybe someone had sent him to tell her to stop stirring shit that could mess with their electoral chances. Maybe he was just trying to be friendly with a colleague at a function.
Most people don’t just assume another person is going to falsely accuse them of physical assault.
Confessions: The 3 most important issues for voters are cost-of-living, immigration and house prices.
The Greens have no loud voices or solutions to these issues. ON has the voice if not the solution.
The Greens have hardly moved up in voter sentiments in 30 years as once their young supporters get into their 30s they see the reality of life and prosperity comes from sensible policy not loony tune economics.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 9:20 pm
ON has the voice of idiots.. 30% of every country are made up of idiots. The beauty of preferential voting system is.. their opinion has not effect.
Just because they say the earth is flat, vaccines don’t work, contrails are painted in the sky & it’s all the fault of immigrants doesn’t mean you need to implement policies they support
HH:
I understand what you’re saying, but the Greens had a very (VERY) loud voice on housing prices in the last term of parliament and he was rejected by voters and ultimately lost his seat. As did his party leader.
I appreciate the economy, cost of living etc are important issues for voters, but there is a plurality of proposed solutions offered by the political parties, and the Greens are offering one of those options.
Voters just aren’t buying it. I’d love to know why.
Fess:
I think some in both the government and the media are doing a good job of explaining the transition.
They are, of course, also contending with a slew of misinformation and scaremongering from the parties of the right and many other sections of the media.
YouGov defies the herd:
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/one-nation-records-historic-result-in-latest-poll-since-hansons-monoculture-call-despite-albanese-rejecting-it-as-nonsense/news-story/3ecdbeb123199de72a7c12b4fb9efbd2
The Age Editorial 30/06
“After all this time, if there is any evidence of any allegation of criminal behaviour that includes corruption and extortion, I don’t understand why that wouldn’t immediately be handed to Victoria Police,” Allan said.
Perhaps, Premier, it is because the Big Build project is so riddled with criminals, standover merchants issuing threats of physical intimidation and black-banning that people are afraid.
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That was such a stupid thing for Allan to say.
She has no idea up there in her ivory tower.
William yougov sure do know how to Click bait because I thought it’d be a massive one nation swing but it just one point ahead
Here4TheData
A very hearty welcome from me!
William Bowesays:
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 9:31 pm
YouGov defies the herd:
_____________
Oh NO! the getup stunt backfired!
You mean Sky News, QR.
Housing proved an electoral asset for the Greens in 2022, but they have messed up their messaging and turn off a lot of the voters for whom that was / is a priority since then by prioritising complaining over practical solutions and by being too obstructive with the governments’ housing legislation last term. So – IMO – they largely went back to Labor in 2025.
Since then, the right has managed to snag a bunch of these voters with One Nation’s simplistic and inaccurate but nonetheless potent “get rid of immigrants = fix housing” message, but how it remains to be seen whether they can hold them given that everyone in an actual position of power in that party has no desire to see house prices drop.
I suspect / hope it will prove fairly ephemeral and much of those who prioritise that issue will drift back to Labor or to other parties or candidates by the next election (and perhaps is already happening if the latest round of polls actually represent the beginnings of a trend rather than just a blip), but that might just be optimism on my part.
Yes William Sky News but seriously it did sound like one nation made a massively that I look at the results and it’s like if I’m Labor I’ll be happy.Asha honestly this round of pollings being pretty good Labor even yougov I mean for a second term government they’re doing pretty well in my opinion
What were the results of the previous YouGov poll? I could have sworn Labor had a lower primary than 29 in their last one, but I could well be misremembering.
Asha so look back at the yougov labour was on 26 so a three-point jump and one nation was 28 a two point jump
ALP 29 (+3), ON 30 (+2), L-NP 17 (-4), GRN 13 (-).
Quentin:
Lol, so it’s largely just a swing against the Coalition in both Labor and One Nation’s favour?
I mean, I guess that can kind of be considered “defying the herd” in that it’s not showing a swing against One Nation, but still…
Thanks William.
The Liberals have to dump Taylor for Hastie. Hastily.
Wombat:
At this point, I think they need to dump him for anyone.
The man makes Ley and Downer look competent.
So really the yougov story could have been headlined in terms of change –
Biggest shift – Coalition down 4% (21 to 17) – relative loss of 19% of their voters
Next biggest shift – Labor up 3% (26 to 29) – relative gain of 11.5%
Least shift of the 3 – One Nation up 2% (28 to 30) – relative gain of 7%
No shift – Greens steady on 13%
And two party preferred – Labor up from 52/48 to 54/46 (against Coalition or One Nation)
Probably not the narrative SkyNews wanted to convey!
Will Taylor last the next two days? – last chance before the winter break with all the Liberals in Canberra.
I’m definitely not a fan of Taylor, and I thought the Liberals were nuts going with the combination of Taylor and Hume, especially given how they faired in the last election campaign, where their performances were arguably even worse than Dutton’s. They were always just completely the wrong direction for the Liberals. I’d agree the main message from the last week of polling isn’t any small movement in either the ALP or One Nation primary, it’s that the Coalition are cratering.
I think very highly of Andrew Hastie.
TM @ 9:32p
Yeah saying ‘please give the evidence to police’ wasn’t the best move as she should have realized that the melbourne media is thick as two planks and wouldn’t have a chance of reading between the lines. “Do any of you useless hacks have any actual evidence of crimes? put up or shut up you embarrassing circus donkey troupe” would probably have been more appropriate.
Asha yeah I don’t know why sky use like one nation had a massive lead if anything it seems that labor’s just slowly being stable especially with first party preferred 54 to 46
Confessions says:
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 9:16 pm
On the question of why there are more rightwing parties, it must be asked (yet again) why the Greens and more progressive parties than the Greens aren’t profiting from the pox on both their houses wrt the major parties.
If the country truly was this leftwing wonderland desperately seeking out more leftist parties to support, then why isn’t that demand being met by more leftwing political parties springing up to take advantage of the emerging and prevailing voter sentiment? And more importantly, why aren’t the Greens surging like ON did?
____________________________________
The Greens (and the Teals to an extent) benefit from a lack of media scrutiny of their policies – hence they “hover”. The moment attention turns to specifics (such as their catastrophic “wealth tax” plan), they get very defensive and crumble under the pressure.
Greens also suffer from being the last full “high migration” party, which by definition makes them the low wage/high rents party (Redbridge has ON beating Greens at better for housing affordability 17 to 9).
“The Greens (and the Teals to an extent) benefit from a lack of media scrutiny of their policies – hence they “hover”. The moment attention turns to specifics (such as their catastrophic “wealth tax” plan), they get very defensive and crumble under the pressure.
Greens also suffer from being the last full “high migration” party, which by definition makes them the low wage/high rents party (Redbridge has ON beating Greens at better for housing affordability 17 to 9).”
Yes, the Greens, famously spared media scrutiny…
William
Thanks. It is a record result for ON as they report but surely the L-NO are the real news? The 2PP would not be much different with Labor also up and Greens steady.
I had a read of the The Age editorial and was quite shocked to learn that (according to the anonymous editorial) crime eventually reaches a critical mass at which point all evidence of the crime disappears, and that’s how a true victorian can know that crime is out of control – the absence of evidence.
Truly thought provoking big brain stuff.
The AFR says Victorian Labor has written off nine seats, all held by less than 6.5%, no surprises.
Sunbury, Ashwood, Melton, Yan Yean, Glen Waverley, Hastings, Pakenham, Bayswater, Bass.
The Age’s credibility jumped the shark yonks ago when it comes to rabid hatred of this state government, with their insistence that Andrews was hated and in danger of being rolled by cookers right up to the point where he won a second landslide. Undaunted they have pressed on.
Deciding that the absence of evidence merely means people are afraid to come forward with it is just the latest example of them clearly trying to twist reality to meet their pre-conceived finale rather than judging the facts that are actually there.
They never got over the fact that not only did Victorians not care about their beloved reporting on the “red shirts” scandal but awarded Andrews a landslide. Then did it again.
Omar, have you ever been to VIctoria? You are taking this election terribly seriously for someone thousands of miles away from it.
Oh but they’ve got their attention for real this time Arky. Check this out. Apparently the CFMEU insisted they have traffic control staff booked and available for the roadworks zones at times when it was possible the construction crews would not be pZzzz…ZZzzzzZZZzz ….ZZZzzzzZZzz
Nath says “ And what are the limits of acceptable laziness?”
Good question. If One Nation get the opportunity they can put in the Fair Work Act and after a few cases get through to the High Court we might find out. 😉
“Perhaps, Premier, it is because the Big Build project is so riddled with criminals, standover merchants issuing threats of physical intimidation and black-banning that people are afraid.”
That’s circular reasoning.
Lack of evidence is not evidence for the existance of evidence.
You should know you are a Stooge if you are complaining about The Age’s treatment of the Victorian government.
Confessions mentions the lack of shift to the Greens by unhappy voters.
Being progressive generally means someone is altruistic and wants to improve society.
When folk are unhappy too many of us don’t seek out solutions, they seek someone to be blame.
Anger is easy to harvest.
Progress needs education and discussion and….ah it’s too hard.
Eat the rich doesn’t even work anymore.
Landlord of the Year says:
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 10:41 pm
The AFR says Victorian Labor has written off nine seats, all held by less than 6.5%, no surprises.
Sunbury, Ashwood, Melton, Yan Yean, Glen Waverley, Hastings, Pakenham, Bayswater, Bass.
_________________________
An odd but interesting list, Melton was a tough ask for the last couple elections, others are understandable but where are the regional seats? Are they assuming a 3 way with ON and the LNP will split the vote enough? Overall looks a bit optimistic to me.
William Bowe says:
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 9:31 pm
YouGov defies the herd:
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/one-nation-records-historic-result-in-latest-poll-since-hansons-monoculture-call-despite-albanese-rejecting-it-as-nonsense/news-story/3ecdbeb123199de72a7c12b4fb9efbd2
And Labor has a 2 party preferred of 54%. Up on the last election.
The Liberal vote is still collapsing.
Is that caused by Albo rejecting the mono culture rubbish as sky is trying to claim? I don’t think so.
Hello “Poll Bludger After Dark”.
Aye nath I’m stooging it up bigly on this one for some reason. I can’t say exactly why,
i think maybe the combo of hypocrisy and stupidity got under my skin.
Hey I’m not tryna establish any bona fides, I just thought you might find this anecdote amusing – In my class at elwood primary there wasn’t a single kid who supported the saints.
Leaders of the police taskforce established by the Allan government to tackle Big Build corruption have declared there is “no doubt” organised criminals have infiltrated the construction program.
Officers also described a struggle to recruit witnesses against the gangland figures profiting from the building sector because Victorians were terrified they would be threatened, firebombed or have their business shut down.
_______________________
It’s just not The Age.
Victoria Police are in on it as well.
It’s all just one big conspiracy designed to bring down the Allan govt.
Omar Comin’says:
Tuesday, June 30, 2026 at 11:18 pm
Hey I’m not tryna establish any bona fides, I just thought you might find this anecdote amusing – In my class at elwood primary there wasn’t a single kid who supported the saints.
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Earth shattering. Who the fuck cares about that.
Not you by the looks of …..taylormade
I suspect the real reason why “business owners” are “terrified” is that court cases open people and businesses up to subpoenas and discovery.
Just like how the Union Banking RC found no evidence of crimes by the Unions, but found loads of examples of the major banks helping finance terrorism and organised crime.
TM there’s no doubt that this website has been infiltrated by organised criminals but I would rat you all out for 1kg of fior di latte
TM you donk he directly asked me if I’d ever been to vic, anyway don’t try and pretend to me that you aren’t the s… pfft nevermind.