The Lowy Institute has published its latest annual survey on public attitudes towards foreign affairs, broadly defined. It finds Australians trust their World War II enemies (89% positive for Japan, 83% for Germany) rather a lot more than the allies (31% for the United States, 28% for China and 11% for Russia) to “act responsibly in the world”, excepting in the latter case the United Kingdom (81%). The result for the US is five points down on last year, which was already 15 points below its previous nadir in the last year of the first Trump administration. However, 73% continue to rate the US alliance as very or fairly important, down seven on last year. The result for China marks a recovery from 12% in 2022, but remains far below the 60% it was recording two decades ago. Australians have also gone back to seeing China as more of an economic partner (61%, up from a low of 33% in 2022) than a security threat (36%, down from 63%).
The view that cultural diversity is positive has fallen 20 points over two years to 73%, and a record 55% say Australia has too many immigrants, up two from last year, with “about right” down nine to 29%. Fifty-three per cent report feeling “unsafe in the world”, the first time in the history of a series going back to 2005 this has exceeded 50%. Thirty-nine per cent favour Australia getting a nuclear weapon of one kind or another, up three since the question was last posed in 2022. The survey was conducted from March 2 to 15 by the Social Research Centre, with a sample of 2013.
Separately, an international survey by Pew Research finds 18% of Australians have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right thing in world affairs, with 82% expressing no confidence. Similar results were recorded in western Europe and south-east Asia, though Britons were a little less unfavourably disposed. Thirty-seven per cent viewed the US as a very or somewhat reliable partner, compared with 79% in 2022.
Taylor did two things this week.
The first thing he did was to avoid having an opinion on whether house prices should go up or down.
The second thing he did was to avoid having an opinion on multiculturalism.
Here is what was the result of all that military action in Iraq earlier today.
https://apnews.com/article/iraq-arrests-corruption-eebff7c8229d69ffd48d280014407fe1
However, the amount of action suggests it might have more than just these arrests.
Arky says:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 6:44 pm
I was just texted the Redbridge stuff which unsurprisingly got here even faster anyway….
===========
Arky – I try to be quicker than a text.
Jane Hume like many Libs is a nasty Hansonite at heart who just maintained a veneer of establishment conservative civility when it was the done thing to be a Liberal Party Senator. Now it’s clear the veneer has lost its electoral benefit and ON has almost finished eating the Liberal Party, Hume is not one of the few I’d say will actually be “never One Nation” and refuse to seek to be ON candidates instead at the next election.
It’s really funny to see reporters in the past referring to Hume as a moderate, but press gallery reporters are easily gulled.
(speaking of which, Hugh Riminton decrying Stefanovic but saying this isn’t the Karl he once knew. I’ve only seen the guy on TV and I always thought he would be like this. It’s like what Mia Freedman said about Abbott being charming in person and you had to remind yourself what his actual policies were. These people in media and politics get where they are by being very very good at interpersonal interactions – falling for the in person charm and not what they do and say when they aren’t focussing their attention on you is a fucking rookie error.)
I am not sure why people are fingering Hastie as the Great White Hope of the Coalition.
Yes, he has physical and moral courage.
Yes, he is quite clear when he makes statements.
But, his substantive achievements since becoming an MP are less than inspiring.
Hey, if that’s what he’s into, who I am to judge?
Landlord of the Year says:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 6:59 pm
Nadia
I saw Kos changed his X account to private.
=======
Ok no worries. I saw that his “x” feed disappeared so assumed he’d deleted the account (as have a lot of other people). I don’t have an “x” account. Just an instagram feed, but instagram is now considered fuddy – duddy these days. I think the youngsters all have a tik tok (sik fuq) account now these days.
Insta & PB does the trick for me!
12 months ago before Price’s Indian comments the Liberal Party were polling high 20s.
I guess we’ll have to wait for the Redbridge, Newspoll, and Roy Morgan polls to be plugged in before making any conclusions on trajectory of polling, but this is currently the Wikipedia graph as of right now.
A leader with political smarts & charisma can make a big difference. Hastie is imbued with at least some charisma, but Taylor has none, is policy-lazy, and most likely thinks that, as a Rhodes Scholar, he’s a natural for the top job. After all, Abbott made it to the Lodge. Perhaps Abbott sees an opening here, returning as the great Liberal Party hope, rescuing it from the great abyss.
BW:
I don’t know if anyone is saying Hastie will be a particularly good leader, just a better one than Taylor or Ley. Which, um, would not be difficult.
Shorten lost because the public used the Adani Convoy and the franking credits/death tax lies as an excuse to refuse to engage with him or Labor, in order to support Morrison’s ongoing brutal attacks on migrants & refugees.
nadia
Is L-NP in free fall?
Sussan Ley was removed for less.
ALP is back in 30s. Last week Newspoll appeared like an outlier with every other poll showing ALP sub 30 even going as low as 26% and ON going up to 31.5%
L-NP is none the wiser in any of these polls.
That ALP supporters are expressing a sigh of relief is is an indication how bad things are for ALP
Lovely to see the Greens in the teens in Redbridge, hopefully a trend that develops and continues
Great so see the One Nation vote falling as well. Why I was happy Hanson was given a platform at the NPC, her, and the party, need scrutiny
Did the Get Up stunt play a role?
LNP very unlikely to turn things around under Taylor and Abbott imo
Just one poll though, let’s see what the others show
Edit. Just noticed no change to Others
Boerwar @ #455 Sunday, June 28th, 2026 – 7:10 pm
For me it’s because he’s a better communicator than Well Done Angus, and because he recognises ON as the disaster they are and won’t do cozy deals with them like Taylor.
BW:
Pressure from his colleagues, perhaps? Ley’s leadership was beyond terminal by that point, the party’s primary was sinking to what were then-unprecedented depths, and the party room had no way of knowing what kind of insane gaffes she was likely to make next in a desperate attempt to seize back the narrative. They probably figured that for all Taylor’s shortcomings, he couldn’t possibly be any worse.
I mean, to be fair, as dismal as his performance as OL has been so far, he hasn’t managed to do or say anything as profoundly stupid as Ley’s attacks on Albo’s Joy Division shirt.
Yet.
Any Queenslander could have told you this is what always happens to Hanson and her mob when they come under a bit of scrutiny.
As with many things, past performance is the best predictor of future performance.
Stephen Koukoulas: Yes – and that after just a week or two of still pretty soft scrutiny.
Wait till an election campaign proper. The generally fair minded decent people who may be flirting with Hanson at the moment because they are pissed off with their lot in life will realise Hanson will make their situation worse, not better.
As an aside, it is quite incredible Labor are $1.83 to $1.90 (depending on the turf accountant) to win in 2028.
I thought Matt Canavan as Nationals leader might have a bit of fight in pushing back against ON, but after a few comments to get the leadership, I haven’t heard much from him.
What percentage of Australians, even in rural areas, could name the current leader of the Nats?
Rex Douglassays:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 6:40 pm
Freo looking the goods for the cup. I’d like to see it.
_______________________
Except for the prancing pony.
Don’t like him at all.
2 home finals should get them to the last Saturday. But can’t seem them beating Brisbane or Geelong in the big one.
Nearly time for 60 minutes.
Boerwar:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 7:10 pm
Dutton kept him under wraps. He saw him as a rival. And he didn’t think much of Taylor.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-meeting-where-dutton-and-hastie-s-relationship-fell-apart-20251006-p5n0ef.html
Look, Labor’s polling was consistently good while Shorten’s ratings were consistently in the shitter.
Just cop it on the chin that Shorten was unelectable.
I don’t think Albo is unelectable against Hanson and Angus, but let’s see what happens…
You just need to acknowledge that Albo is falling in popularity, for legitimate reasons. A flip flopper extraordinaire a long way to the right of where he pretended to be prior to first being elected as a socialist leftie.
I haven’t sighed with relief because there was no need to.
Arky:
I’ve disliked when the whole “but they are so nice in person” thing that gets trotted out to humanise someone who stands for terrible things.
Most people are nice in person. Being nice is the bare minimum expected of decent human beings, not something to be celebrated. I suspect the majority of even the most caustic of the posters here are perfectly friendly, pleasant people when encountered out in the real world.
Successful politicians and TV entertainers are better than most at being nice, or – at least – pretending to be nice. Their careers depend on it.
HH:
Hmm, I’d argue Matt Canavan is a significantly more known quantity than Littleproud or McCormack or Truss ever were.
How long until Hardwick gets managed out ..?
Ven says:
Sunday, June 28, 2026 at 7:20 pm
…..
nadia
Is L-NP in free fall?
========
The last poll which had the LNP with a 2 in front of it was the 16-Jun YouGov.
Since then, they’ve had:
* Redbridge-Accent (tonight) 18%
* DemosAU (six days ago) 18%, &
* Roy Morgan (last Monday) 17.5%
They’re def in a lot of trouble.
Newspoll on the 7-Jun also had the Libs at 18%.
Gosh, if we do get a Newspoll in 90 minutes time, and the Libs are down to say 16% this site will probably end up as “error 404” when we try to log on.
Hastie is the Liberals great hope because he is the best of a bad lot. It is hard to name a Liberal member of the lower house who looks like a leader and has some form of brains.
Taylor is living up to what Malcolm Turnbull said about him – “the best qualified idiot they’ve ever met”. He’s been trying to out-do Hanson. At least, Hastie is smart enough to realise that that is not a winning strategy.
I thought Hastie’s personal strategy would be to take over after the next election but there is unlikely to be anything worth taking over at this rate. So I am expecting there will be some push for him in the new year if the LNP remain below drowning level.
I made 600 phone calls during the 2019 election for Labor (in Qld). Shorten stunk.
LotY
Interesting. So it was Jacinta N Price who said derogatory things about our subcontinent diaspora?
I pay a fair bit of attention to Australian politics, and I think normally I would remember a specific Liberal / National saying something that is quite prejudicial to one group.
But to me, in the last year, I just have the vibe that none of the Liberals are keen on our subcontinent compatriots.
Very different to me remembering clearly Jane Hume talking about her son who had an internship with a fairly major company, who was “working from home” when she wanted to have a cup of coffee with him in the Canberra CBD, and saying that working from home had to stop, sometime in March /April 2025.
You’re just doing this to fuck with me now, arn’t you, Rex?
That’s the trouble with rumps: more deckchairs than bums.
Hastie, Tehan, Wilson or Hume?
Mostly Interested – That is report that many people have given me who were calling Union members in Queensland in 2019. Certain things did not play well north of the Tweed River. The Stop Adani convoy was probably the most visible – it looked like a circus act coming to celebrate economic demise of a small town.
Taylormade @ 7:29p
Absolute ratings killer. ZZZZZZzzzzZZzzzzz.
zzzzZZz.
Boerwar – Hume is a senator so is out.
Tehan would make Taylor look like a Rhodes Scholar (d’Oh).
Wilson is gay and that would be an issue for some of them.
I wouldn’t bet my home on it, but I reckon the phones will be red-hot during the winter recess. I agree with B.S. Fairman that if Hastie fails to move soon,
there might not be a Liberal Party to lead.
Douglas and Milko
Price was heavily criticised at the time, Price made the comments about Indians after polling research claimed 85% of Indians voted Labor.
Mostly Interested provides a reality check from within the Labor camp on Shorten’s lack of popularity
It wasn’t the policies folks, that just gave voters another excuse although anyone rooting for Bowen to take over from Albanese should remember the role he played “if you don’t like them, vote for someone else”
A line that competes with this from Joe Hockey back in the day in terms of ending leadership aspirations
From Google AI
When considering a run for the Liberal leadership, Joe Hockey notably used Twitter in late 2009 to ask his followers directly what he should do, particularly regarding the contentious emissions trading scheme (ETS).
The critical context and outcome included:
The Public Consultation: Prior to the December 2009 Liberal leadership spill, Hockey was highly popular with voters, with polls showing him as the preferred leader over both Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott. In consultation with his followers on Twitter, he floated the idea of a conscience vote on the ETS and sought their opinions on his political direction.
The Leadership Spill: Despite the public support, Hockey took his candidacy to a party-room ballot on December 1, 2009, against Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott.
The Result: He was surprisingly eliminated in the first round of voting. Tony Abbott ultimately won the ballot by a single vote.
My work at https://electionsaustralia.org/ continues.
During my reading around today, I’ve learned (or re-encountered) two new things.
Australia’s system of (largely) preferential voting is broadly referred to as “Instant-runoff voting”.
“Instant-runoff voting (IRV; US: ranked-choice voting (RCV), AU: preferential voting, UK/NZ: alternative vote) is a single-winner ranked voting election system where one or more eliminations are used to simulate multiple rounds of voting as done in a runoff election. The purpose is to have the winner win with the support of a proven majority of votes cast (or majority of votes still in play at the time of winning).”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting
I wonder what voters would make of “instant runoff voting”.
And to answer the question, “So which electoral system is “best”?”
1. Mixed member proportional
2. Single transferable vote
3. Open list proportional
4. Alternative vote
5. Closed list proportional
6. Single member plurality
7. Runoffs
8. Mixed member majoritarian
9. Single non-transferable vote
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system#Comparison
Expert opinion on electoral systems: So which electoral system is “best”?
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13689880500064544
Mavis – I don’t think it will be that quick. I am sure there will lots of backroom discussions. But Hastie himself doesn’t want to act to swiftly. And the urgency is not there yet – The true damage is going to be done at the net election which can’t really be held until the second half of 2027 but most likely will be in the first half of 2028.
Sweet Jebus. Mick Gatto has been in the thick of in the construction industry as a fixer, mediator and arbitrator for decades.
Is this the best 60 minutes can come up with.
What happened to the 15 billion dollar blowout price tag.
This was a bad expose even by 60 minute standards
Oh great several more Bill Shorten related posts to scroll past
That’s good news, but the margin of error is about 3%, so we’ll need to see how other polls are going – hopefully the same way.
Newspoll – 28 June 2026
Primary vote
Labor: 33% — up 3
Coalition: 17% — down 1
One Nation: 29% — down 2
Greens: 13% — up 2
Other: 8% — down 2
Preferred Prime Minister
Anthony Albanese leads Angus Taylor by 11 points — up from a 6-point lead on 7 June. The article does not give the exact Albanese/Taylor/uncommitted split.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/newspoll-anthony-albanese-and-labor-bounce-back-after-budget-tax-backflips-take-primary-vote-lead-from-one-nation/news-story/3c57c1c54f74b697324f5b5917e74337
Thanks GovNerd,
So Newspoll pretty much replicates the Redbridge poll earlier.
Labor up, One Nation down and the Libs disintegrating.
New thread coming up soon!
GoW needs to read:
Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign / chaired by The Hon Dr Craig Emerson and The Hon Jay Weatherill.
https://alp.org.au/media/2043/alp-campaign-review-2019.pdf
p. 7 – “Labor lost the election because of a weak strategy that could not adapt to the change in Liberal leadership, a cluttered policy agenda that looked risky and an unpopular leader. No one of these shortcomings was decisive but in combination they explain the result.
p. 8 – “Low-income workers swung against Labor. Labor’s ambiguous language on Adani, combined with some anti-coal rhetoric, devastated its support in the coal mining communities of regional Queensland and the Hunter Valley.”
“Chapter 1: Why did Labor lose?”
No mention of the Adani convoy.
Asked to rank the three leaders in order from highest to lowest preference, Mr Albanese claimed support from 49 per cent of voters, ahead of Senator Hanson (31 per cent) and Mr Taylor (20 per cent). Almost one-in-two female voters backed Mr Albanese, compared with 32 per cent who endorsed Senator Hanson and 20 per cent who picked Mr Taylor.
Re GovNerd @8:01.
Now we have two credible polls showing similar movement, so looking better.