Foreign affairs polling: Lowy Institute and Pew Research (open thread)

Trust in the United States and its President falls to a low ebb, while concern about China moderates from its pandemic-era nadir.

The Lowy Institute has published its latest annual survey on public attitudes towards foreign affairs, broadly defined. It finds Australians trust their World War II enemies (89% positive for Japan, 83% for Germany) rather a lot more than the allies (31% for the United States, 28% for China and 11% for Russia) to “act responsibly in the world”, excepting in the latter case the United Kingdom (81%). The result for the US is five points down on last year, which was already 15 points below its previous nadir in the last year of the first Trump administration. However, 73% continue to rate the US alliance as very or fairly important, down seven on last year. The result for China marks a recovery from 12% in 2022, but remains far below the 60% it was recording two decades ago. Australians have also gone back to seeing China as more of an economic partner (61%, up from a low of 33% in 2022) than a security threat (36%, down from 63%).

The view that cultural diversity is positive has fallen 20 points over two years to 73%, and a record 55% say Australia has too many immigrants, up two from last year, with “about right” down nine to 29%. Fifty-three per cent report feeling “unsafe in the world”, the first time in the history of a series going back to 2005 this has exceeded 50%. Thirty-nine per cent favour Australia getting a nuclear weapon of one kind or another, up three since the question was last posed in 2022. The survey was conducted from March 2 to 15 by the Social Research Centre, with a sample of 2013.

Separately, an international survey by Pew Research finds 18% of Australians have confidence in Donald Trump to do the right thing in world affairs, with 82% expressing no confidence. Similar results were recorded in western Europe and south-east Asia, though Britons were a little less unfavourably disposed. Thirty-seven per cent viewed the US as a very or somewhat reliable partner, compared with 79% in 2022.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

528 thoughts on “Foreign affairs polling: Lowy Institute and Pew Research (open thread)”

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  1. I know these ‘Floyd lyrics were written about Maggie, but I think they equally apply to the monocultural crone:

    Bus stop rat bag, haha, charade, you are
    You fucked up, old hag, haha, charade, you are
    You radiate cold shafts of broken glass

    You’re nearly a good laugh, almost worth a quick grin
    You like the feel of steel, you’re hot stuff with a hatpin
    And good fun with a handgun

    You’re nearly a laugh
    You’re nearly a laugh, but you’re really a cry

  2. How is Hanson, who is Trump groupie and wants to implement his policies if she becomes PM, so attractive to 31% Australians is beyond me. As they say, she is a known quantity and yet…..

  3. How is Hanson, who is Trump groupie and wants to implement his policies if she becomes PM, so attractive to 31% Australians is beyond me. As they say, she is a known quantity and yet…..

    I think it boils down to “I hate who you hate”.

  7. Did Australian voters ever give a second chance to failed pollie and grifter like Hanson in their political history?

    Children overboard?

    John Howard fended off Pauline Hanson, in part, by “addressing her supporters’ concerns”, according to an approving editorial or op ed in The Australian around that time, which I haven’t been able to find. The War on Refugees was, I expect, part of that.

  8. Just listening to the Politics Now podcast from yesterday with PK talking to Antony Green about One Nation

    Well worth a listen

    Not good to hear there have been some US strikes in Iran this morning in response to the drone attacks on the commercial vessel from Singapore

    Iran saying they’ll respond. Hopefully that’ll be the end of it

    Greens have a great “ad” on YouTube going after the 1% and One Nation. Also video of Peter Whish-Wilson talking about the foreign influence campaign and bot army in the Senate

    I’d post links but pretty sure I’m still blocked from doing so

  9. Vensays:
    Saturday, June 27, 2026 at 6:53 am
    Did Australian voters ever give a second chance to failed pollie and grifter like Hanson in their political history?

    Grifters aplenty!
    The list will be forthcoming from many on PB.

    It would be difficult to define Pauline as a failed politician. Pauline is still here and as tanked up as ever.

    Pauline’s current contribution to Australian political history is enormous and probably as defining as the Liberals under Menzies.

    It’s not there yet but who knows!

    Imagine if Pauline were able to tone it down a bit without the hysterics.

    We all have one vote, Pauline has collected a large tranche of the “one vote” brigade and just about destroyed the Liberals and the Nationals.

    Significant is an understatement!
    Scary is an understatement!

  12. I cannot understand the confusion about Karl Stefanovic, he always seemed like a Ben Fordham style right wing figure to me. You might do alright being a left of centre blogger but you are much more likely to get on the lucrative bandwagon if you do a Stan Zemanek, Ray Hadley , Alan Jones and aforementioned Fordham and many others even former golden era glamour movie tragic and super camp tv figure John Michael Howson tried to jump on this cash cow. There seems to be a huge appetite for whingy whiney complaint heavy broadcasters. Solving problems which is generally what left of centre governments do doesn’t seem to get you many kudos. But from perspective the last thing we need is another one of the turkeys.

  13. Donnie is scared shitless of the possible results of the mid-term elections.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-communists-democrats-truth-social-b3003992.html

    If the Democrats should win both houses (a wait and see what happens) we know they’ll start with another round of impeachment of the orange baby. Personally, this is the wrong way to go. I reckon they should just leave him hanging in the wind and ignore him. The agony of Donnie worrying about it constantly would be exquisite. Blocking any further damage to the country should be their main objective, along with curbing the power of the cabinet and seeking removal of thugs and nutters like Hegseth, Kennedy, just to name two.

  14. Ven

    There have been several “second chance” political leaders in Australian politics. All conservatives.

    Menzies came back post war after being swept from office when WWII broke out (and Australia was miserably unprepared.)

    Howard had a go as LOTO in the 80s, got beaten by Hawke and Keating, replaced as LOTO by Hewson, then came back and won in 1996.

    Maybe not Hanson style grifters, but certainly populists. It’s happened before.

    I don’t take Hanson seriously as somebody capable of running the country. But she has to be taken seriously as someone who could win power, unless she is exposed.

  15. The potential fall of Crimea could portend the fall of Putin…

    Mr. Putin has described the largely bloodless seizure of Crimea as one of the key achievements of his rule, saying that Crimea was as crucial for Russia’s identity as the Temple Mount is for Jews.

    The Russian president has kept a low profile since the Ukrainian attacks intensified. In a vague comment earlier this week, he dismissed the devastating drone strikes as Ukraine’s attempt to “rattle” Russian society.

    A growing dissatisfaction with the perceived helplessness of the Kremlin in the face of Ukrainian attacks has sent Mr. Putin’s approval ratings falling, even according to Russian state-affiliated pollsters. A survey by the pollster FOM, published on Friday, found the Russian leader’s approval hitting its lowest level since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/world/europe/crimea-ukraine-state-emergency.html

    Trust in V. Putin

    Question:
    “Do you rather trust or rather not trust Vladimir Putin?”

    Note:
    Data shown as a percentage of all respondents.

    Legend

    * Green line: Rather trust
    * Brown line: Rather do not trust
    * Grey line: Difficult to answer

    Latest result (21 June 2026)

    * Rather trust: 69%
    * Rather do not trust: 18%
    * Difficult to answer: 13%

    https://media.fom.ru/fom-bd/d25pi2026.pdf

  16. The Lowi Institute poll is interesting and the detailed writeup is good. Contrary to the Greens, there is no chance defence spending is falling.

    Half of Australians (50%) say they would support an ‘increase’ in defence spending. Four in ten (42%) say they would support defence spending remaining ‘about the same’ as it is today.

    Nuclear submarines remain very popular but it is not clear if that is because of the attachment to USA or the capability itself.

    Two-thirds of Australians (68%) say they support Australia’s acquisition of conventionally armed but nuclear-powered submarines.

    Disturbingly to me, a growing percentage of people want nuclear weapons. This would create many problems, including a nuclear arms race in SE Asia.

    Four in ten Australians (39%) say they are ‘in favour’ of Australia acquiring nuclear weapons in the future, a three-point increase since Australians were last polled on this question in 2022. The proportion of Australians (58%) who say they are ‘against’ Australia acquiring nuclear weapons has softened, falling five points since last polled in 2022.

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/2026-lowy-institute-poll/executive-summary

  17. To be clear, Russian polling has a myriad of issues – but the same poll showing a dip in Putin’s trust has this about ‘the Russian Government’….

    Government of the Russian Federation: Performance Rating

    Survey details:
    FOMnibus poll, conducted 19–21 June across:

    * 97 localities
    * 51 federal subjects (regions) of Russia
    * 1,500 respondents

    Question

    “In your opinion, is the Russian government today performing rather well or rather poorly?”

    And this commentary from Sam Altman..

    This pattern—where the president remains significantly more popular than the government—is a longstanding feature of Russian opinion polling. It suggests that many respondents distinguish between Putin’s leadership and the performance of the government and bureaucracy, attributing more day-to-day policy dissatisfaction to the government than to the president. Whether this reflects genuine opinion, political messaging, or survey response effects is debated by analysts, but the gap has been consistently observed in Russian polling over many years.

  19. I don’t like those 11% who trust Russia to be a good international citizen. I see that as a proxy result for ‘11% of Australians are evil’. I want that figure driven right down to zero if possible. I hate the idea of over one in every ten people I know or come across being scumbags whom I want out of here.

  20. Ukraine hits back:

    Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy declares 40-day Russia blitz to ‘influence the aggressor state’: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/ukraine-war-briefing-zelenskyy-40-day-russia-blitz

    Ukraine unleashes one of its heaviest drone bombardments of Russia: https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/ukraine-unleashes-one-of-its-heaviest-drone-bombardments-of-russia/

    State of Emergency Declared in Occupied Crimea by Russian-Installed Authorities: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/state-of-emergency-declared-in-occupied-crimea-by-russian-installed-authorities-20200

    Ukraine’s Spartan Brigade Destroys Two Russian S-300 Launchers Worth $50M Near Volnovakha: https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraines-spartan-brigade-destroys-two-russian-s-300-launchers-worth-50m-near-volnovakha-20191

    Kremlin Aware of Viral Video Threatening Armed Uprising Over Alleged Abuses in Army: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/26/kremlin-aware-of-viral-video-threatening-armed-uprising-over-alleged-abuses-in-army-a93109

  23. Omar – that’s right. Look at all those pathetic social media posts of Russians begging their ‘beloved’ Putin to fix this or that terrible consequence of the imperial war of conquest unleashed upon Ukraine and pig-headedly continued – by the very same Putin they are appealing to!

  24. newy @ 8:38a

    I know what you’re saying, but 11% is still really good. You’re unlikely to find that level of agreement on the question of whether water flows downhill.

  25. Mad as a cut snake:

    Trump, 80, Accused of ‘Very Unhealthy’ Relationship With Blonde Aide, 34: https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps-blonde-aide-natalie-harp-34-accused-of-very-unhealthy-bond-with-president-80/

    Judge Corners DOJ for Covering Up Files on Trump’s 13-Year-Old Accuser: https://www.thedailybeast.com/judge-corners-doj-over-covering-up-files-on-trumps-13-year-old-accuser/

    ‘I run the protection program’: Johnson vows to shield Trump and his allies from scrutiny: https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/mike-johnson-protection-program-johnson-trump-midterms

    Texas education board votes to make Bible passages required reading: https://abcnews.com/GMA/News/texas-education-board-votes-make-bible-passages-required/story?id=134246001

    Australia fans bring anti-Donald Trump chant to Bay Area for World Cup: https://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/australia-world-cup-trump-22321489.php

  26. One emerging issue in the Russia wide petrol station queues, where waits can be up to 10 hours, is people just abandoning their cars in the queue or at the gas station when they are denied service.

    This is on top of the fist fights with queue jumpers and authorities delivering lines of portaloos to address, well, the stench of it all.

  27. The federal govt has accepted the advice from the Emission Reduction Assurance Committee (ERAC) and approved a new ACCU method:
    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/about/news/new-accu-method-scheme

    This will pay for the creation of the Great Koala National Park as outlined in this SMH article:
    https://archive.is/bFjLZ

    I’m not convinced this satisfies the principle of additionality, which is required to meet the legislated Offset Integrity Standards:

    Additionality – any carbon abatement that is credited would be unlikely to occur in the ordinary course of events.

    I’m pretty sure the NSW govt would have found the money to pay for it themselves (a key promise from the last election) if the new ACCU method was not approved. However, these are complicated matters and the ERAC – whose governance and independence were strengthened through legislative reforms in 2023 – is comprised of people who understand these issues much better than I do. Moreover, ACCU methods are constantly reviewed and audited to ensure their integrity.

    Regardless, this new ACCU method has the potential to increase the sustainability of the management of our native forests.

  28. Crimea is Ukraine!

    “Crimea ‘at heart’ of Ukraine’s fight for justice, Zelensky says on Crimean Tatar Flag Day”
    https://kyivindependent.com/crimea-at-heart-of-ukraines-fight-for-justice-zelensky-says-on-crimean-tatar-flag-day/

    “Russia first brought its war to Ukraine in Crimea, and now, through our actions….we are doing everything we can to force Russia to end the war and restore justice. And it is Crimea that lies at the heart of our policy to ensure justice,” Zelensky said on social media…

    … “(W)e remember that justice for Ukraine means justice for the Crimean Tatar people as well,” he said.

    “A people who were forced to endure deportation and decades of persecution. A people who managed to return to their homeland, but whose home the Russians have once again tried to steal. A people who retain their vitality and are an integral part of our society.”

    Zelensky’s words invoke the forced deportation of Crimean Tatars by Soviet authorities during World War II, when the entire Tatar population was falsely accused of collaborating with Nazi Germany. Up to 200,000 Crimean Tatars — mostly women, children, and the elderly — were deported to Central Asia and Siberia, while Crimean Tatar men serving in the Red Army were sent to labor camps.

    More than 46% of the victims died as a result of the mass deportation, and today it is recognized by Ukraine and multiple other countries as an act of genocide.

    When Ukraine gained independence in 1991, Crimean Tatars were finally able to return en masse to the Crimean peninsula.

    But since Russia’s 2014 invasion, Crimean Tatars have faced some of the harshest repression under the occuping regime, according to Ukrainian officials. Russia banned the Mejlis, the Crimean Tatar community’s representative body, and has imprisoned over 150 Tatars on political charges.

    Crimean Tatar people living under Russian occupation face ongoing political suppression and persecution, as well as erasure of their identity and history.

    Time for all those Russians, astroturfed into Crimea by Putin to replace the real locals, to get out of their cars queuing hopelessly for petrol, get on their bikes, and pedal back over the Kerch Bridge back to Russia – while its still standing strongly enough to bear the weight of a bicycle.

  29. Angry Angus: Angus Taylor has attacked One Nation as not being “fit to govern” Australia in his most ­direct assault against Pauline Hanson and is urging anxious ­colleagues to be patient and give him time to win back voters lost because the Coalition “breached” their trust.

    In an extended interview with The Australian following a tough couple of weeks headlined by ­record low core support for the Coalition in Newspoll, the Opposition Leader declared he would not repeat his predecessor Peter Dutton’s mistake of holding back a bolder policy agenda. Under pressure from Liberal MPs to take the fight directly to One Nation on policy and multiculturalism after the right-wing party endorsed a “monocultural” society, Mr Taylor said Senator Hanson did not have the team nor the plan to lead the country. “I don’t know what One ­Nation’s plan is … They haven’t explained so many parts of it,” Mr Taylor told The Australian. “How much are they going to spend on defence? We’ve been clear about that. Who’s going to be able to buy a house? Who are they going to throw out of the country? We’ve been very clear on this. I don’t think One Nation is capable of having that plan and governing but perhaps more ­critically, I don’t think they’re capable of putting the team ­together that can govern this country.”
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/not-fit-to-govern-angus-taylors-policy-onslaught-to-take-on-one-nation-and-pauline-hanson/news-story/28c793022adf43e00a90b2c8579d65e7?amp

  30. Good on Andrew Forrest!

    “Australian billionaire Andrew Forrest’s Minderoo Foundation pledges $2 million to support Ukraine agrifood sector”
    https://kyivindependent.com/australian-billionaire-andrew-forrests-minderoo-foundation-pledges-2-million-to-support-ukraine-agrifood-sector/

    Russia’s full-scale invasion has hit Ukraine’s agricultural companies hard, with landmine contamination restricting access to around 23% of Ukraine’s land. Agriculture remains a key part of Ukraine’s economy, generating $22.7 billion in exports last year and around 10% of GDP, but financing has dried up as banks retreat amid war risks.

  31. Hanson’s first husband speaks out, claiming she only in politics for the money:

    ‘Zagorski (her first husband) is still resentful years after the acrimonious split, and says his former partner was motivated only by money.

    “In my honest opinion, she was not a nice person,” he says.

    “Her parents were the two people that were the guiding force for Pauline. Pauline’s father worked his arse off 20 hours a day every day in the shop.

    “Pauline got all her ideas on being dishonest and sneaky and greedy and making more money from her dad.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/who-is-pauline-hanson-immigrant-first-husband-offers-glimpse-into-her-early-life-20260616-p607ee.html

    One has to be sceptical about a former spouse venting his spleen, but
    there it is.

  33. Mavis

    Way back when Hanson started in Qld politics there was a detailed and telling Courier Mail story on her. They interviewed her two divorced husbands and kids. Both former husbands expressed a similar view and most of her four kids wanted nothing to do with their mum. Hanson had gotten the house in both divorces.

  34. The liquid fuel stock statistics have been updated:

    Date … Gasoline … Kerosene … Diesel
    Feb ………. 39 ……………. 31 …………… 33
    .
    .
    .
    2/6 ……… 43 ……………. 30 …………. 36
    9/6 ……… 45 ……………. 32 …………. 39
    16/6 ……. 44 ……………. 32 …………. 39
    23/6 ……. 44 ……………. 29 …………. 37

    (days of stock at normal rate of consumption)
    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/security/australias-fuel-security/minimum-stockholding-obligation/statistics

    At London Climate Action Week, dozens of countries have backed Türkiye and Australia’s 35% by ’35 electrification target:
    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/06/24/governments-rally-behind-electrification-push-as-powerful-weapon-against-fossil-fuels/

    There is also this joint statement:
    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/about/news/joint-australia-canada-united-kingdom-statement-energy-climate-coorperation

  38. This Saturday Paper article explains how KPMG, of conflict of interest fame, still has a $1.3 million contract for ethical training(!) of senior public servants.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/2026/06/27/exclusive-kpmg-takes-13m-teach-public-servants-ethics

    WTF?? Firstly why not contract any of the G8 Sandstone universities to do this at far less cost, with far more qualified lecturers? ANU has some outstanding ethicists at the Research School of Social Sciences on their Canberra campus.

    Secondly, why ask an accounting firm at all?? Their reputation for ethical conduct is an embarrassment.

    Who issued this contract??

  40. David Pocock once again was the best friend of Labor this week by saving them from themselves re the ‘Widow tax’.

  43. Will be interesting to see how messy the Moira situation gets for the Vic Libs.

    She will make the point about blokes keeping their hands to themselves, which will resonate somewhat.

  44. Zagorski is initially reluctant to discuss his past. Wearing a flannel shirt and a cautious look as he stands on his concrete driveway, he says while Hanson was once part of his life, “she’s not any more”.

    “I don’t trust any (politicians). They’re not there to look after you. They’re out there to look after themselves … and Pauline, she’s definitely in it for herself,” he says.

    “I wouldn’t vote for her. I haven’t voted for her … look at the stupidity that’s going on in the (United) States with (President Donald) Trump.

    “The problem is there’s so much dishonesty in the system. Most people don’t know the difference between honesty and dishonesty.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/who-is-pauline-hanson-immigrant-first-husband-offers-glimpse-into-her-early-life-20260616-p607ee.html

    Not a fan then. And yes, Vic, he was a Polish post-war immigrant.

  45. Disappointed in Barrie Cassidy on back to back Barries for urging Labor to do a deal with the hopeless Coalition on the NDIS.

    Both Barries are rusted-on conventional old school establishment types.

  49. Timmy the loon at 1.14am on the previous thread, about the approaching glory days when Hanson is leading us to economic nirvana and all those brown and slanty eyed folks have been stripped of citizenship.

    He reckons the votes of non-whites will be irrelevant, I get that will be true if you can find a way to cancel their citizenship..

    He reckons the voting effect of immigrants will be reduced If those of Chinese extraction “can be convinced to permanently relocate back to Asia”.

    What if they don’t want to move to Asia Timmy, where will they build the gas chambers? Will all those nice white people want one in their neighborhood? What about the smelly smoke?

    It is obvious that Timmy is not as quite as dumb as he pretends to be and is just taking the piss. Sadly, far too many Hanson acolytes believe this crap.

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