YouGov: Labor 29, One Nation 27, Coalition 19 (open thread)

One Nation now knocking on the door of the Labor primary vote in the latest YouGov poll, with the Coalition remaining adrift.

The fortnightly Sky News Pulse poll by YouGov finds One Nation only one point shy of the vote it recorded in the thick of the Liberals’ early February leadership crisis, recording 27% of the primary vote with Labor down one to 29%, the Coalition steady on 19% and the Greens steady on 13%. One Nation also records its best result yet on the two-party preferred measure against Labor, with the latter leading 53-47, in from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor’s lead over the Coalition narrows from 55-45 to 54-46. The poll was conducted from last Thursday through to yesterday from a sample size unspecified – I will hopefully be able to provide further detail later today.

The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor down one-and-a-half points to 27% with the Coalition up by the same amount to 25.5%. One Nation and the Greens were each up a point, to 23.5% and 13.5% respectively. Labor’s two-party lead over the Coalition narrows from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, and from 52-48 to 51-49 on previous election preference flows. The poll was conducted Sunday to Monday from a sample of 1664.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,047 thoughts on “YouGov: Labor 29, One Nation 27, Coalition 19 (open thread)”

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  1. With the Libs once again preferencing One notion over labor because they just don’t like the government (bugger what the vast majority of voters think)basically giving Hanson a leg up, isn’t it time labor rolls out a nationwide campaign along the lines of
    “A vote for the coalition is a vote for Hanson,why would you vote to put a fox in the chook house?” and ram it home.

  2. I’ve watched a Bolt interview with Hanson this morning.

    That was brave, you deserve the I Survived Bolt and Hanson Vomit Bucket Medal of Extraordinary Courage.

  3. pied pipersays:
    Wednesday, March 25, 2026 at 7:32 am
    So called progressive left Labor has torched its vote by its own actions.
    Own goals on population and its own spending and its refusal over years to change its failed policies means One nation is now taking its votes.
    Weak leadership by Albanese with not booting overstayers etc, and the rent and housing crisis continues.

    There are a multitude of fruit cakes available in Australia. Your version, despite the enormous amount of time you spend on advertising your version, will wither on the shelf and eventually safely disposed of.

  4. Another bailout, we really need to find a better way to manage these kind of things. If the business is too important to let go maybe we should start nationalising them

    Anyways, have a great day

  5. Why is it so?
    Last Newspoll.
    Labor 32%
    One nation 27%
    That’s before labors latest interest rate rise.
    A pump and dump economy under labor.
    14 ,yes 14 interest rate rises in 4 years under the guilty labor party.
    Inflation stats out today.Just sayin….
    One nation says Thankyou.

  6. Steve777says:
    Wednesday, March 25, 2026 at 8:29 am
    Profits, not labour costs, are driving inflation, as was the case in the wake of the pandemic – Greg Jericho and David Richardson:

    https://thepoint.com.au/news/260324-profit-push-is-back-the-increase-in-inflation-is-due-to-profits

    Increasing interest rates won’t help*.

    {*my addition – unless increasing unemployment is a feature, not a bug}

    ______________________

    Bullshit, the Australia Institute continues to use made up methodology to peddle these falsehoods.

    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-institute-urged-to-retract-flawed-profit-inflation-report-20230513-p5d84j

    https://treasury.gov.au/the-department/accountability-reporting/foi/3376

  7. Listening to 774 ABC this morning, they had Rex Patrick on to talk about the 2019 Fuel Emergency plans that the then government had drawn up and that he had obtained through FOI.
    They talked about a $40 buying limit as one of the potential measures that the government could implement.
    The talk back line was then full of people sounding very worried about how they would get around…

    I give it a month before people start rediscovering the train, the bus and the bicycle.

  8. sprocket_says:
    Wednesday, March 25, 2026 at 6:20 am
    The line to get through TSA security into Atlanta airport today.. 4 hour wait would be raising anxiety levels

    Sprocket
    You are not telling the whole truth i.e. that line is for domestic travel. Imagine the line for International travel.

  9. SL,
    Here’s the reason why the Boyne Aluminium smelter being able to continue in production is important:

    Europe Clinches Critical Mineral Access With Australian Trade Deal
    The European Union and Australia have shaken hands on a trade deal that would improve access to aluminium, lithium and other critical minerals for the 27-nation bloc.

    The two sides began negotiating in 2018, but talks broke down back in 2023 when Australia was pushing for a deal that would have allowed it to send more beef subject to low tariffs than the European Union was willing to accept.

    But hostility from other trading partners has pushed the two sides closer together. The United States has levied higher tariffs on its trading partners globally, making its large consumer market a less attractive export market for Australian beef as well as European cars and handbags. China has shown a willingness to weaponize its chokehold on minerals that Europe desperately needs for both its green energy transition and its rearmament push.

    For the European Union, critical mineral access is one of the major benefits of the deal: It is poised to strengthen the 27-nation bloc’s access to aluminum, lithium, manganese and hydrogen, among other needed materials. For Australia, the deal will result in more seamless access to Europe’s 450 million consumers, a boon at a time when the nation’s trade terms with the United States have worsened.

    “Today we are telling an important story to a world that is deeply changing. A world where great powers are using tariffs as a leverage and supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited,” Ms. von der Leyen said Tuesday. “In our story, open, rules based trade delivers positive sum outcomes. Trust matters more than transactions.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/world/europe/europe-australian-trade-deal.html

  10. It appears to me that the tag “populist” afforded to Hanson houses with an anti climate change and an anti migration offering

    Anti climate change festers into anti science including anti medical science and vaccinations hence their focus on the responses to Covid including vaccination

    So a glad bag of anti – and whatever any particular issue may be they are anti

    Which aligns Hanson with Trump and the calamity Trump is now saying Iran has agreed to never having nuclear weapons

    This is the result of the economic and social carnage we see globally

    I would trust that sensible people view that there was another way to elicit such a statement

    But time will tell

    Then there is Israel – Gaza, the West Bank and now parts of Lebanon mimicking Trump and Venezuela, Canada, Iceland and Cuba – before you get to the Middle East

    The purpose of this detailing?

    That the seat or any of the very few seats won by Hanson in SA was exclusively because of Liberal Party preferencing

    And the equally few seats the Liberal Party has won in the same election are because of Labor Party preferencing

    Which now puts the Victorian Liberal Party in the spotlight

    And reflect on the dangerous Howard, who put Hanson last and took other actions against her

    But then in WA, gave the approval to preference Hanson (and now the equally repulsive Kennett is in the media – again)

    The repulsive Howard and the repulsive Kennett are only interested in one outcome – to occupy the government benches and if it is with Hanson then so be it

    And this is there for all to see

    Howard and Kennett on the same page!!!

    The reason the Liberal Party is now dead and buried is Howard and Kennett

  11. sprocket_says:
    Wednesday, March 25, 2026 at 6:41 am
    Essential Poll… no voting intentions
    [
    On Tuesday, the defence minister, Richard Marles, refused to rule out extending the deployment beyond the initial four weeks, saying Australia had received requests from the US to help defend the Gulf region.

    Mission creep yeah? There goes BW defence of Albanese that Trump did not sent Australia to another US, especially Israeli war.

  12. C@t

    Yes, aluminium is one of the main critical materials for the EU, because of its importance to defence materiel.

    Also, it is wrong to characterise the assistance to Boyne as a bailout, as the media is wont to do. Every aluminium smelter everywhere in the world is subsidised. In the case of Boyne and Tomago, historically the subsidies were provided by below cost electricity from government owned coal fired power stations. As these are closing, the power purchase agreements are being replaced with cheaper contracts for renewables and storage.

    As fossil fuels become increasingly expensive, this investment, combined with the power purchase agreements we have already signed, positions Boyne to be among the world’s first aluminium smelters underpinned by solar and wind power

    Rio Tinto’s aluminium and lithium chief executive Jérôme Pécresse (ABC Business Live)

  13. Silence facilitates climate disinformation, and the government is complicit

    https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/03/silence-facilitates-climate-disinformation-and-the-government-is-complicit/

    “A survey was undertaken of the media engagement of four key Cabinet members – the Prime Minister, and the Climate, Assistant Climate and Emergency Services Ministers – in January, comprising 125 media statements and transcripts of media events available on their websites. The purpose was to identify the number of occasions in which a Minister had made any reference to the relationship between the extreme events being experienced and climate change.
    :::
    Across 125 media engagements in January 2026 by four relevant Ministers the relationship between record breaking extreme weather events and climate change was mentioned just twice.

    It should also be noted that across 62 interviews and media conferences, only on one occasion did a journalist ask about the relationship between these record-breaking events and climate change. That shines a poor light on the state of Australian climate journalism.

    The government has a communications strategy of avoiding talking about the science of climate change impacts, the risks and the future threats. Some of this was documented in The Albanese government has created a climate vacuum, and we will pay the price. It was also on full display in the decision by the Prime Minister not to release Australia’s first-ever climate and security risk assessment, even in a declassified form as our allies do.”

  14. sprocket_says:
    Wednesday, March 25, 2026 at 6:41 am
    Essential Poll… no voting intentions

    [
    Asked about specific responses to the Iran war, only 32% backed the federal government’s moves to send missiles, an E-7 Wedgetail surveillance aircraft and about 85 Australian defence force personnel to the United Arab Emirates. Some 35% opposed that move.

    So, more people oppose sending missiles, surveillance plane and troops to help US bomb more places and defend gulf nations. What were they thinking?

  15. “The senate will debate David Shoebridge’s war powers bill today, which, if adopted, would mean that both chambers of parliament would have to approve sending troops to overseas conflicts.

    It won’t pass, because it won’t get government support and while the Coalition do like annoying the government in the senate by passing Greens motions from time to time, it won’t want to signal that it is looking at actual accountability when it comes to sending Australia to war.

    Right now, the government decides. It’s technically supposed to be the governor-general who signs off on sending ground troops in, but as Howard worked out with Iraq, there are ways around that too, if you’re motivated enough to join an illegal war and want to get around pesky issues like a GG wanting to see legal advice before signing their name to it.”

    Source: The Point Live 7:57 AEDT

  16. Miskal the post he’s responding to relates specifically to ‘talk’, but in your case, it’s overpriced at free anyway.

  17. Taylor will lead the Liberals to a South Australian style disaster. I reckon Hastie is biding his time, he’s smart enough not to challenge this side of the election.

  18. Pegasussays:
    Wednesday, March 25, 2026 at 9:01 am
    “The senate will debate David Shoebridge’s war powers bill today, which, if adopted, would mean that both chambers of parliament would have to approve sending troops to overseas conflicts.

    It won’t pass, because it won’t get government support and while the Coalition do like annoying the government in the senate by passing Greens motions from time to time, it won’t want to signal that it is looking at actual accountability when it comes to sending Australia to war.

    Right now, the government decides. It’s technically supposed to be the governor-general who signs off on sending ground troops in, but as Howard worked out with Iraq, there are ways around that too, if you’re motivated enough to join an illegal war and want to get around pesky issues like a GG wanting to see legal advice before signing their name to it.”

    Source: The Point Live 7:57 AEDT

    “Right now, the government decides. ”
    That is not exactly true. It is PM, who decides that if he/ she is powerful enough in the party of government.

  19. Omar, and? Also your patriotism shtick seems rather hollow; if you love a country you want it to be better, it doesn’t mean rar rar barracking, you scoundrel.

  20. If and when ON does poll above Labor, a live possibility, expect all the braying from the hill from the usual suspects. Who seemingly will be ignoring the dead carcass of the Liberal party who actually hold the seats in Parliament. But Labor!

  21. S. Simpsonsays:
    Wednesday, March 25, 2026 at 9:04 am
    Taylor will lead the Liberals to a South Australian style disaster. I reckon Hastie is biding his time, he’s smart enough not to challenge this side of the election.

    Possible and probable. That is because
    1. The L-NP still wants to follow ON to the right.
    2. L-NP wants to preference ON above ALP.

    We saw what happens when L-NP does that in 2025 federal election and SA state election. Substantial number of People are having a dim view of L-NP.

  22. Miskal the patriotism of flag encrusted PHONYs is what’s hollow. Sorry if you don’t like me calling it out. Lol just kidding, sook more.

  23. I think Albanese government should send out Jason Clare as spokesman to explain the problem Australia is facing and the solutions the government is implementing.

  24. Australia’s exports of coal and natural gas have peaked and are projected to decline (metallurgical coal exports are projected to remain stable out to 2040):


    https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/quarterly-update-australias-national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-september-2025.pdf

    These are conservative projections that reflect current global efforts to reduce emissions. They differ from the treasury modelling used in the Net Zero Report that assumes global action to limit warming to well below 2°C. In that scenario, fossil fuel exports decline more rapidly:

    In reality, neither of these projections will be correct. However, the continuing reductions in renewable and battery costs suggest that the second scenario might be closer to reality than the first.

  25. “Taylor will lead the Liberals to a South Australian style disaster. I reckon Hastie is biding his time, he’s smart enough not to challenge this side of the election.”

    @S. Simpson

    Andrew Hastie isn’t politically smart, he’s the opposite, he’s politically dumb. He trashed his political clean skin advantage by being a wrecker under Sussan Ley’s leadership. Which it turned off potential backers who thought he was too unpredictable and inexperienced. He could have had the leadership now if he’d played his cards right.

    This comment that he’s ‘smart enough not to challenge this side of the election’ is giving way too much credit to Hastie.

  26. The lib/nats propaganda media units, know without a desperation of claiming the federal election is going to be closer than it actually is . No point of anything

    The federal lib/nats media units , continuing on with their delusion that their failed propaganda against Labor and other lib/nats political opponents before and after the 2025 federal election , is working .

  27. Trump repeats his claim that US is in talks with Iran.
    He is doing the same bloody lying schtick where he repeatedly claimed that he stopped India-Pak war in May, 2025 even though India repeatedly denied it and Indian opposition dined on Trump’s claims.

  28. Griff …

    Ah yes. All that blame you used to throw at the ATM governments when they were in charge. Night after night and all day weekends.

    Confessions …

    Honestly, this is why I long ago deemed P1 a troll and not worthy of response or reaction.

    Honestly, some people here don’t just have the memories of a goldfish, they also seem to have the IQ.

    I have constantly criticized Australia’s pathetic emissions policies – whether COALition or Labor. Just as I have constantly criticized whichever party is in government for not doing better, whether COALition or Labor.

    It seems that here on PB any criticism of the COALition is just background noise no matter how loud or blatantly partisan, whereas any criticism of Labor – who simply adopted many of the COALition’s worst policies to win government – stands out like a vuvuzela, no matter how soft or justified.

    Only an idiot or a party hack (assuming there is a difference) would waste their time criticizing the policies of a party not in a position to actually implement any of them. Unless it is those dastardly Greens, of course! And how long has Labor had to come up with decent policies and implement them? Three years? Four? I could list Labor’s many policy failures here, but I will not – we all know what they are.

    Oh, but while I am pointing out a few simple truths, can I remind a few people here – again – that the point of the “energy transition” is not to reduce prices. It is supposed to reduce emissions. If it can do both then good, but if it is reducing prices but not reducing emissions – then it is a dud of a policy. And at the moment it is not reducing emissions enough to even meet our own pathetic targets. And please don’t bother with the irrelevant “per capita” emissions stuff. The climate doesn’t care about “per capita”.

  29. Your version rings just as hollow. Also I see sook is the word of the week. Might wanna check definitions because sooking and warning are actually quite different.

    I’ll use them in sentences to help

    I am warning you that Labor will soon be facing the same issue with ON on its right flank if they continue their current path

    You will be sooking about it when it happens in the next month.

    Hope that helps.

  30. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, March 25, 2026 at 7:30 am

    It’s Gallipoli 2.0. A fever dream.

    The problem for the marines is that they need to get to the vicinity of the SoH or through the SoH before they assault something or other. The Screaming Eagles can just jump from planes basically anywhere in Iran.

    The contingency planning failure has cost the US a month’s worth of military options.

    The Iranians have a million men and women under arms. While they are not all Marines or Screaming Eagles, and may not all be fawning disciples of the mullahs, their country is being attacked. For nearly 50 years they have been told that America is the Great Satan. That’s the kind of lifelong indoctrination that sticks.

    The Great Satan has acknowledged they have no interest in human rights in Iran. It’s ally is the even more hated Israel, which has been knocking off the Iranian leadership, because it wants chaos and anarchy in Iran, not prosperity and civil order.

    At some point enough has to be enough for ordinary Iranians.

    5,000 Yank troops, no matter how elite, is insufficient to accomplish the mission. Probably 50,000 would be too few. It will be a massacre … of Americans. Hunker down.

    Gallipoli 2.0?

    False analogy in so many ways.

    Iran does not have a million people under arms.

    Most estimates have a regular army of about 400,000 of whom half are conscripts. IMO the regular army is the weak link in the theocracy’s pillars. I have no way of knowing, but I doubt that many of the conscripts (among whom would be a substantial number of enemies of the regime) would do much more than surrender given the opportunity. This is a known unknown.

    Add maybe 150,-200,000 Guards, most of whom would probably be willing to die fighting off the enemy.

    The US does not have 6,500 troops available in the Middle East. It normally has somewhere between 40- and 60- thousand troops in the Middle East.

    The additional troops that the US is sending to the ME number around 10,000. They are elite assault units.

    We don’t know at this stage whether the ostentatious shifting of marines and airborne troops to the Middle East is anything much more than bluff for the sake of negotiations.

    We don’t know what the assault task will be. It will certainly NOT be to take on the entire Iranian armed forces.

    The attractive targets are Kharg and the Iranian islands in the SoH. Preliminary bombing would obliterate the vast majority of Iranian soldiers and heavy weapons in such very limited spaces. Conquest would be swift and casualties would be acceptable. IMO, IF there is a massacre involved, it would be local Iranian armed forces who get obliterated.

  31. The Danish election looks to have resulted in minority government for … someone? Neither the red nor blue blocs secured a majority (looking like 84 red, 77 blue, with about 15 … I guess they are sort of teals … in the role of kingmakers). My guess is the left will eventually form a government, but all options are still open. The far right DPP picked up 10 seats, which will probably see a lot of triumphalism but is actually a fairly modest improvement compared to where things might have gone.

    Its no wonder Danish elections are a bit weird – their equivalent of a democracy sausage is fried pork belly in a parsley cream sauce. Tasty, but much too fiddly…

  32. If, as America says, they are wanting a more moderate leader in Iran and Saudi Arabia is saying they want the ME remade, then that may be the template that is eventually followed.

    Presuming:

    (a) The Israelis don’t murder this person first;

    (b) The Iranians and the Saudis are prepared to work at any level with Israel;

    (c) The Iranian people agree on the specifics;

    (d) The mullahs agree on the specifics;

    (d) Hell freezes over.

  33. WSJ reporting that US/Iran talks may start on Thursday -but still far apart.

    This is allegedly the US log of claims.. sourced from Telegram

  34. “The Screaming Eagles can just jump from planes basically anywhere in Iran.”

    What a fanciful comment. The point is not where they can go as much as how you get them back again. How did Arnhem work out for the British and Poles…

  35. Miskal that’s cool bro, I’m just here reminding folks about the ALP juggernaut’s recent crushing election victories such as the one that reduced the NLP to 3rd party status and the other one that knocked off 75% of greens MPs, and I’m letting them know that they shouldn’t get too carried away because the big wheels will ultimately crush their whiny asses. All good my man, sorry for any misunderstanding.

  36. Miskal, I’m hopping into this conversation part-way through – ie, the one which is based on your warnings for Labor to watch out for its right flank of voters defecting to ON . This sounds like you are advising Labor to adopt policies to attract its right flank back away from ON – ie, edge further to the right. Is that what you mean?

  37. Vensays:
    Wednesday, March 25, 2026 at 9:13 am
    I think Albanese government should send out Jason Clare as spokesman to explain the problem Australia is facing and the solutions the government is implementing.
    _______________________
    Is Bowen not up to the job ?

  38. The Vic are also going to do the 3 hours of free power:

    The government says the free power is only possible thanks to investment in renewable energy, which has meant the state produces more electricity than needed during the day

    (GA Live)

  39. Lebanon expels an Iranian envoy as its rift with Tehran deepens.

    Lebanon ordered the expulsion of Iran’s newly appointed ambassador on Tuesday, a rare rebuke of Tehran over its backing of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group that fired rockets into Israel earlier this month and opened one of the most active fronts in the Middle East war.

    Lebanon’s foreign minister, Youssef Rajji, said in a statement that the ministry had withdrawn its approval for Iran’s ambassador to Beirut, Mohammad Reza Shibani, and declared him persona non grata. The Iranian ambassador has been ordered to leave the country by the end of the week, Mr. Rajji said.

    https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/24/world/iran-war-trump-oil

  40. newy boy says:
    Wednesday, March 25, 2026 at 9:37 am
    Miskal, I’m hopping into this conversation part-way through – ie, the one which is based on your warnings for Labor to watch out for its right flank of voters defecting to ON . This sounds like you are advising Labor to adopt policies to attract its right flank back away from ON – ie, edge further to the right. Is that what you mean?

    Well, he does support CO2 emissions-producing HFC ‘EV’ cars, so, yeah, probably. 🙂

  41. Newy oh God no. For two reasons. The first is principle; ON policies are anathema to me not because its ON saying them, but because they are stupid and rather evil policies.

    The second is that centrist parties trying to stop the far right by chasing their policies doesn’t work; look at Europe to see that in action.

    What Labor needs to do is target cost of living and housing in ways beyond simplistic “immigrants drive up prices and nothing else” that Hanson and her ilk play with. Look at other drivers that shift housing to just another asset.

    Why im saying the Labor right flank is the potential issue with regards to ON is that I also think the left flank will start to flake of over the coming years unless Labor does something big. But the Labor left flank is incredibly disciplined (so less likely to leave) and even if they do who do they go for? Indies and the greens… where the vote likely flows back to Labor.

    Now let’s look at the right flank; if your right wing Labor, and your either sick of the status quo orrrrr you want to send a message, who do you vote for? You could go LNP, but with the LNP currently in a grave you want to pick a winning team, or you actually view immigration as the source of all evil (again, it isn’t and the issues are alot more systemic then that).

    So you pick a party you see as anti immigration thats claiming yo want to fix cost of living (ON are frauds but again we are talking the average voter). So really its either small parties like shooters, or its the new hotness on the right wing with the ON surge. And so far thats fine because their preference deals with the rest of the right wing are so shit as to allow fragmentation, but assuming that won’t change is a very risky play.

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