Roy Morgan has published a weekly result for the second week in a row, perhaps suggesting a return to old form after its post-election practice of combining its regular surveying into large-sample monthly results. The latest result has Labor down one-and-a-half points on last week to 28.5% and the Coalition down fully six-and-a-half points to 24%, with a six-point increase pushing One Nation to 21% and bringing the pollster closer into line with its rivals. The Greens are steady on 13.5%. Labor leads 53.5-46.5 on respondent allocated preferences and 53-47 when preference flows from the last election are applied, in both cases out from 52-48 last week. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1715 – the full release has two-party preferred breakdowns by state, gender and age cohort, which unfortunately does not extend to primary votes as the monthly aggregations were doing.
The Daily Mail reports a Freshwater Strategy poll of 1050 respondents has Labor on 33% of the primary vote, the Coalition on 28%, the Greens on 11% and One Nation on 19%, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred. Pauline Hanson records a plus six net approval rating, with Anthony Albanese on minus nine and Sussan Ley on minus five, and Albanese leading Ley 45-32 on preferred prime minister. “About 75%” supported “a temporary cap on migration while housing and infrastructure catches up, while 81% backed stricter character tests and background checks for visa applicants”. We may see full details of the poll reported on the company’s site at a later time.
Oh look! There goes Susan Collins whose own state has been infected with ICE goons, affirming her support for additional ICE funding. You can always count on these people too scared of Trump to:
1. issue a statement of concern about issue X that Trump has caused, appearing to actually be concerned.
2. eventually toe the line behind Trump.
Vote 1: Graham Platner.
https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2015956993400242176
I think the pollsters are struggling with what to do with QLD 16 LNP members, I make it:
10 Liberal
6 Nats
Though do the respondents in QLD know who their member caucuses with?
The LNP has been in QLD since 2008 – Littelproud has really fwarked things up IMHO
davidwh says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 8:39 pm
C@t we are in uncharted waters re polling. Other than Labor is comfortably ahead we know precious little about how Liberal/National/One Notion second preference will flow.
Exactly. I can think of multiple scenarios. Like, if The Nationals stay as a separate party, do they do a different deal with ON to the Liberals? Or will they both feel threatened by ON and put them last? Will all parties try to stymie the surge to ON in the Senate by getting together and all agreeing to put ON last? Will each Lower House electorate determine their own preferences based upon the threat they calculate from ON? How will 4 or 5-cornered contests affect things if the Liberals and Nationals, and Labor, because they would have a much better chance of winning some Regional and Rural seats now that the Right vote is fractured, all put up candidates?
It could be a long night of vote counting. Possibly weeks for the Senate.
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 8:45 pm
I think the pollsters are struggling with what to do with QLD 16 LNP members, I make it:
10 Liberal
6 Nats
Though do the respondents in QLD know who their member caucuses with?
The LNP has been in QLD since 2008 – Littelproud has really fwarked things up IMHO
__________
Shhh…Littleproud is a genius! The best decision since going nuclear 🙂
Confessions says Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 8:43 pm
Collins is probably one of the few Republican members of Congress who has little to fear from Trump, and would probably be better off being seen to be on the wrong side of him.
Sprocket I thought my local MP was Centre/Right but have since found out he is aligned with the Nats. Looking for a Teal next election.
davidwhsays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 8:49 pm
Sprocket I thought my local MP was Centre/Right but have since found out he is aligned with the Nats. Looking for a Teal next election.
———————————————–
If the Liberals are in an unofficial coalition with ON next election. I expect we will have Teals in nearly every Liberal electorate. You maybe spoiled for choice.
I don’t understand Collins’ motivations. If she came out strongly against the administration on Pretti’s murder, and even went so far as pinning the ICE shit on Stephen Miller, her voters would lap it up and likely reward her.
I guess everyone will be playing the preference guessing game for a while yet, well if they buy into it
If my memory is right DavidWH and you are on or near Bribie Island, isn’t Bribie Island required to return a Joh type National under the Qld constitution.
WWP prior to the formation of the LNP Longman’s MP was Mal Brough a Liberal. I don’t believe what you wrote is correct.
Hard Being Greensays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 8:53 pm
I guess everyone will be playing the preference guessing game for a while yet, well if they buy into it.
——————————-
I think they are overestimating the seat number effect of Liberal voters going to ON and underestimating the seat number effect of Liberal voters that could go Teal as result of this too.
“For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction”
The sun has set in Victoria, peak (record) electricity demand has passed. Prices spiked briefly to >$3k/MWh but have now dropped back to ~$100/MWh.
https://www.aemo.com.au/Energy-systems/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-NEM/Data-Dashboard-NEM
I wonder if the collapse in the LNP vote could lead to a “Tealslander” teal wave in Queensland.
Longman generally has a strong One Notion vote so I’m guessing if the current trend holds up things will be very interesting here.
A different take on why China’s TFR dropped below 1 in 2025. There is a fair bit that I disagree with but there are some different angles worth considering, IMO:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6HekXd0IX8
“WWP prior to the formation of the LNP Longman’s MP was Mal Brough a Liberal. I don’t believe what you wrote is correct.”
I have been wrong before, so it is possible.
I’ll trust you that fancy centrist Liberal woke types invaded Bribie Island at some point after I last sailed under the bridge through appoximately eleventy billion jelly fish.
We also have so strong Labor areas which will likely deliver Longman to Labor in 2028.
Sad to see that the only internal criticism aired publicly from the nats is about the risk of losing staffers and the blunder of not being able to capitalise politically post Bondi by Colin Boyce.
“We also have so strong Labor areas which will likely deliver Longman to Labor in 2028.”
As a former Burpengary boy, that brings joy to my once was a stooge heart.
Hope you didn’t have a high main mast WWP
“Hope you didn’t have a high main mast WWP”
Just a little catamaran, nothing fancy, just something a mates dad from Morayfield could afford, on if my memory is correct a truckies take.
Also now my fading memory is suggesting perhaps we didn’t actually go under the bridge, it was a long time ago and the jelly fish were scary.
Yes we get more than a few jellyfish when the NorEasters are blowing. Generally the winds here are S/E but when it’s N/E you even get real surf at Woorim.
“Yes we get more than a few jellyfish when the NorEasters are blowing. Generally the winds here are S/E but when it’s N/E you even get real surf at Woorim.”
I drove through Morayfield and Burpengary some time in the last decade and I can’t say I was rating the gentrification and what it brought highly, although it was cool having an AFL pre season game in Burpengary.
Victorians have my utmost sympathy:
‘Authorities had warned that there would be little reprieve from soaring temperatures overnight in northern parts of Victoria — and we’re seeing that in recent weather observations.
Swan Hill was sitting at 39.9 degrees Celsius at 8:30pm, while Mildura recorded 42.2C and Hopetoun — which reached 48.9C earlier — has now cooled down to 39.3C.
There’s been little relief for Melbourne. The Victorian capital is currently sitting at about 38.4C.’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-27/heatwave-bushfires-south-east-australia-vic-nsw-sa/106269198
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 9:31 pm
Victorians have my utmost sympathy:
________________________
We don’t need it. We called upon our mighty Antarctic winds that will soon arrive.
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 9:31 pm
———————————-
Melbourne is down to 26.6 C now. Far better for the tennis players.
FriendlyJordies’ take on The Nationals and OneNation:
https://youtube.com/shorts/RbPEvKvlAxo?si=z9m1wWEhc6X8DGZb
Melbourne is down to 26.6 C now. Far better for the tennis players.
Thank goodness.
In fact, we should send hitmen and machete wielders to every capital city in Australia as a reminder of who’s boss.
Hey, PBers!
I am a long-time lurker, first-time poster, well… second time after I posted this week’s Roy Morgan poll on here at 7:33pm.
Should have introduced myself in my first post…
Thought I’d share the poll given its interesting results.
Makes me think when polls start using ALP-ON 2PP more regularly…
“May we live in interesting times.”, to paraphrase the old saying.
I’m a bit shy and I work full-time, so don’t expect me to comment frequently or with impressive detail and depth as some of the more knowledgeable prolific posters here.
Hence my name. *grinning emoji*
Well you’re gonna have to change the name now you’re not a lurker.
Entropysays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 9:34 pm
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 9:31 pm
———————————-
Melbourne is down to 26.6 C now. Far better for the tennis players.
_____________
fuck the tennis players. Those fit bastards are elite athletes. I feel for the oldies, the immune suppressed, and our furry friends who suffer through the heat.
nathsays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 9:47 pm
Entropysays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 9:34 pm
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 9:31 pm
———————————-
Melbourne is down to 26.6 C now. Far better for the tennis players.
_____________
fuck the tennis players. Those fit bastards are elite athletes. I feel for the oldies, the immune suppressed, and our furry friends who suffer through the heat.
————————————
Sorry, I’ll work on my empathy.
One Nation would be the opposition party in Australian federal politics if an election were to be held today, according to the first ever Sky News Pulse.
Pauline Hanson’s party had a strong showing at the 2025 election with 6.4 per cent, but has since surged to become the party of choice for 25 per cent of voters.
That was well ahead of the would-be Coalition, with the combined Liberal and National vote at just 20 per cent – nearly 12 per cent down on the result last election.
Labor was at 31 per cent, down nearly 4 per cent from the 2025 result, while the Greens were steady at 12 per cent.
The Liberals and Nationals were down across the board compared to 2025, with primary vote for the Liberals at 14 per cent (-6.7 per cent), LNP at 4 per cent (-3.1 per cent) and Nationals at 2 per cent (-1.8 per cent).
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/pauline-hansons-one-nation-could-form-opposition-if-an-election-were-held-today-sky-news-pulse-reveals/news-story/43b93b2bc0936232a70553f2cea09a83
Anonymous Lurkersays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 9:44 pm
“I’m a bit shy and I work full-time, so don’t expect me to comment frequently or with impressive detail and depth”
Ok.
Thanks, HH — complete with every kind of breakdown, including state. Give Sky News credit for that at least.
Ouchies.
There should be a dickhead law. The person throwing the bomb into a gathering should be charged under it.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 9:55 pm
One Nation would be the opposition party in Australian federal politics if an election were to be held today, according to the first ever Sky News Pulse.
_____________
Jesus Christ. ON are polling 25 in Victoria, and they are even polling decently among higher income cohorts. WTF is happening.
“ Well you’re gonna have to change the name now you’re not a lurker.”
Fair point, Ghost of Whitlam. *winks*
But I’ll probably still lurk more than I’ll comment. It can be quite time consuming for me to write posts with some effort.
Thanks for sharing the Sky News poll, Holdenhilbilly! Another poll with results that would have been unthinkable this time last year!
Still very hot where I am! Best wishes to those battling bushfires across Victoria.
Have a pleasant night, all!
nath says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 10:01 pm
Holdenhillbillysays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 9:55 pm
One Nation would be the opposition party in Australian federal politics if an election were to be held today, according to the first ever Sky News Pulse.
_____________
Jesus Christ. ON are polling 25 in Victoria, and they are even polling decently among higher income cohorts. WTF is happening.
___________
I mentioned Gippsland a few days ago…
In a way it’s good to see a bit of political intrigue in the ACT at the moment. What better to entertain ACT residents than a possible Greens – Liberal (hard right version) coalition with a hoped for Greens chief minister?
Why should the ACT with a population rapidly approaching that of Tasmania have only 25 members responsible for everything, while the latter has two houses of parliament plus a multitude of local councils? Why is there regular polling in Tasmania while ACT is lucky to see even one poll in a blue moon?
Let’s see the Greens and Liberals put their money where their mouth is and form an extraordinary coalition united only by them having a common enemy that has won five elections in a row.
As an ACT resident I would love to see a poll to tell us what the voters think.
Most Victorians don’t even know what Gippsland is.
This is something else. Look at the rural, provincial and outer suburb ON vote. kinda scary.
Is it more likely that ON can take outer suburban Labor seats than the Liberals?
Whilst I am at it, the Sky/YouGov data vis team have told The Australian/Newspoll data vis team to hold their beer. Those pie charts are sinful.
WB, there’s some oddities on the BludgerTrack charts for VIC, QLD, NSW
nath @ #3140 Tuesday, January 27th, 2026 – 10:01 pm
Simple. People are looking for an alternative. The COALition is no longer providing one.
It’s looking more and more like the rise of One Nation isn’t a blip. Details vary, but the general trend is confirmed by poll after poll.
And if you put the parties of the mostly right together (ON plus the remains of the Coalition) you get around 45 percent compared to the mostly left (Labor plus Greens) on about 43.
And any Polyannas who think that’s not of extreme concern need to wake up and smell the napalm.
nath says:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 10:01 pm
Holdenhillbillysays:
Tuesday, January 27, 2026 at 9:55 pm
One Nation would be the opposition party in Australian federal politics if an election were to be held today, according to the first ever Sky News Pulse.
_____________
Jesus Christ. ON are polling 25 in Victoria, and they are even polling decently among higher income cohorts. WTF is happening.
Half the US population have proven to be dumb arses, no reason Australia should be that different.. well maybe 30% are idiots.